Illinois Redistricting Megathread

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Sol, meh I don't think Newman will be cut.
You could still do a full sweep in Chicago land with 12 districts by dragging the black VRA districts a bit further south to take up some more land.

You could also just draw the 12th chicago land seat into Rockford and then give Bustos Champaign and just make a tossup seat in the South.

Depends if Rodney Davis loses, doesn’t it?  If Londrigan wins then she’ll presumably need Champaign-Urbana in her new district. 

Then again, I agree that Newman won’t get cut.  Lipinski clearly lost local establishment support since 2010 and arguably even since 2018 in that folks didn’t go to the mat for him the way they did two years ago.  I suspect Madigan saw the writing on the wall and decided to back Lipinski enough to preserve the relationship/keep him indebted if Lipinski won while not going all-in so that he could keep communication channels open with Newman if she won.  It’s sorta like the Election Day scam Clay Davis pulled on Tommy Carcetti and Clarence Royce in season 4 of The Wire. 

I doubt a Madigan cares much what Newman does as long as she doesn’t support challengers to his incumbent allies in state/local primaries and doesn’t actively try to pick fights with him.  The man has bigger fish to fry, to say nothing of being under criminal investigation.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Light blue voted 8.6% Dem in 2012/16 composite. Purple voted 7.1% Dem.
For 2016 only, light blue was 0.6% Republican, purple was 7.9% Dem (so actually swung D.)

Ignore Cook County. I'm not done yet. Khaki is Lauren Underwood's district. Turquoise is closest to Sean Casten but he lives south of it.  

This is the downstate map the IL Dems should draw

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Thank you, king! No independent maps in Illinois until we have them nationwide.

At best Congress can mandate them for congressional districts, but not for state legislative districts. Since Pubs in their supermajority states say the same thing, your statement is equivalent of saying no independent maps for the state ever. The irony is that in states like IL an independent map is unlikely to affect the Dem control of the state, but would probably put a number of incumbents at risk in primaries or general elections with ungerrymandered districts.

Democrats have a bill and almost unanimous support for legislation mandating fair maps(there's an argument that under the 14th amendment congress does have the right to mandate them for state legislative districts or at least allow them to be challenged if they are gerrymandered in courts). Republicans can support it or propose their own standalone bill banning gerrymandering if they wanted.

This is moot since Joe Manchin has said he won't support that bill.

No, he said he wouldn’t support for the present version of it and that there were some changes he felt needed to be made.  He’s never commented one way or another on the redistricting reform element AFAIK.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

They should’ve just gone for an ugly-ish 13-2-1 (with the tossup as a D-leaning district).  This is a dumb map.  They should’ve just redrawn Bustos’ old district from scratch.  This version will likely flip before the decade is out even if we hold it in 2022.


As far as 13-3 maps go, Brittain33’s is much better b/c at least it would hold through the decade:

Light blue voted 8.6% Dem in 2012/16 composite. Purple voted 7.1% Dem.
For 2016 only, light blue was 0.6% Republican, purple was 7.9% Dem (so actually swung D.)

Ignore Cook County. I'm not done yet. Khaki is Lauren Underwood's district. Turquoise is closest to Sean Casten but he lives south of it.  

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The IL Dems could also go for something like this, which gives your two fairly firmly Clinton voting downstate districts and leaves Rockford for Underwood.

link

Nasty little gerrymander of downstate. Both Dem districts are around 50%D-42%R on 2016 numbers, light blue is marginally more Dem.

Even better!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Reportedly Kinzinger's district is getting axed.

This was always gonna happen and even if it didn’t, he’d be DOA in the primary

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Since everyone keeps drawing 14-3 gerrymanders, I guess it's safe to assume there is no practical way to draw a 15-2 gerrymander?

Look at the top post on the page

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Since everyone keeps drawing 14-3 gerrymanders, I guess it's safe to assume there is no practical way to draw a 15-2 gerrymander?

Look at the top post on the page

I don't think that 1st district is sustainable for Democrats throughout the decade (it's arguably more of a 14-1-2 than 15-2), and could easily flip in 2022. These other 14-3 maps would be much safer bets if the party is thinking in the long term.

Sure, but we’d at least have a shot at flipping it and 14-1-2 > 14-3