Illinois Redistricting Megathread

[Gracile]

Sorry if this is a dumb question, but since drawing 3 black-majority districts here this time seems difficult to impossible, which of the districts is likely to become only plurality black? Geography would suggest Davis's 7th, especially since Kelly and Rush will probably nibble more deeply into Republican parts of Will County--but is there someone who the Establishment likes more?

The current IL-07 is already a plurality black district (barely - 2016 estimates put it at 49.5% black, but my guess is it is probably a little less than that now given the racial trends in the area), so it's probably the easiest seat to make a plurality black "minority coalition" district.

[Gracile]

^Underwood's home is in your IL-11 and Foster's is in your IL-14, IIRC.

[Gracile]

^Underwood's home is in your IL-11 and Foster's is in your IL-14, IIRC.

Ah my bad but I made sure it was easy to fix. Could you point where or link it?
Also realized I forgot Newmans home but meh she doesn't have very much influence.(I dont think Madigan will try to purposely screw her but just doesn't care)

I don't know exactly where they live offhand, but Foster is located in the DuPage part of Naperville and Underwood in the Will County portion (basically the opposite of what you did in this map wrt to Naperville).

[Gracile]

Democrats better find a way out of this and fast

Don’t they have the votes to amend the state constitution?

If not, one way out of this would be to use population estimates (and try to stay within the allowable deviation) to draw the districts.

They have supermajorities in both chambers, so theoretically yes, they could amend the state constitution.

[Gracile]

What is the general sense of what will happen to Bustos/IL-17? This seems like the most difficult of the Democratic-held districts to make truly safe for the decade because of its partisan trendline. Making minimal changes like adding in some more Democratic precincts from the Peoria and Rockford areas while cutting off some of the outlying Republican areas (as in Wasserman's map) won't be enough. The mapmakers would have to do something much more dramatic to shore up her seat like drawing a tentacle from the Quad Cities through one of the heavily Democratic downstate cities (like Springfield or Bloomington). This also seems like it might complicate plans to make a potential downstate district that would connect most of the heavily Democratic cities (unless the solution is Bustos running in this district, I suppose).

To be clear, I don't think it is impossible for the mapmakers to make both districts some Democratic in the near future; I'm just skeptical that the new IL-17 wouldn't be anything other than a band-aid to temporarily stall the Republican trendline in parts of Northwestern/rural Central IL or that it wouldn't fall in a particularly bad cycle for Democrats.

Someone more knowledgeable on this subject can feel free to interject.

[Gracile]

Dems should go for the jugular. 15-2, all Dem districts are at least +4 except the downstate one, which is +3. Compactness isn't terrible either except for the central IL district. No attention paid to where any of the incumbents reside.

This likely isn't a 15-2 map, as lfromnj pointed out - with the Quad Cities and Metro East districts probably being much more Republican than the composite (which uses 2012 and 2016 Senate data that is more favorable to Democrats downstate). I'll also add that some of these districts are spreading Democrats too thin that they wouldn't be immune from a bad cycle.

[Gracile]

Dems should go for the jugular. 15-2, all Dem districts are at least +4 except the downstate one, which is +3. Compactness isn't terrible either except for the central IL district. No attention paid to where any of the incumbents reside.

This likely isn't a 15-2 map, as lfromnj pointed out - with the Quad Cities and Metro East districts probably being much more Republican than the composite (which uses 2012 and 2016 Senate data that is more favorable to Democrats downstate). I'll also add that some of these districts are spreading Democrats too thin that they wouldn't be immune from a bad cycle.

Thoughts on the map I posted upthread? (on this page)

It's not terrible if this was strictly hypothetical, but there are several things here that I'm doubtful will happen in real life. If I have more time I'll go into more detail but basically (1) Newman getting drawn out is pretty unlikely and if she was it would be to make way for a second Hispanic opportunity seat. Also in trying to sink Newman you gave away a lot of Garcia's prime turf in Chicago. (2) Foster is not going to be happy with the arrangement of the Naperville area (he lives in your 14th while Underwood lives in your 11th). (3) An open exurban Kane/McHenry seat could elect a GOP representative given its down-ballot GOP tendencies/in a possible wave cycle, so that configuration would not be ideal if you're trying to maximize Democratic seats in Chicagoland (again this would be moot if your intent wasn't trying to create a D gerrymander).

[Gracile]

Twitter thinks this is just Dave Wasserman’s map that he came up with a few weeks ago.

Yes, it literally is an exact copy of that map-

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1388183558599155714

^For comparison.

[Gracile]

The problem with most 14-3 configurations isn't how they voted now, but how resistant the downstate districts (particularly IL-17) would be to current partisan trends continuing or potential unfavorable midterm cycles throughout the decade. A Rockford/Peoria/Quad Cities district that doesn't take in one of the major Democratic cities (probably Bloomington) would not be tenable for that reason.

[Gracile]

We could see initial drafts of legislative maps today-

https://mobile.twitter.com/MarkMaxwellTV/status/1395741425082544140

[Gracile]

Interesting Manar's district gets made way more blue to Trump +2 but he himself gets drawn out from his home in Macoupin county. Is he running for Congress?

Manar is no longer in the State Senate and works in the Pritzker administration.

[Gracile]

The district 2 judge is appointed and is up for election in 2022,  is that a retention election?

No, it will be a special election (along with District 3). Retention for Supreme Court judges only goes into effect after a judge has been elected in their own right.

[Gracile]

The district 2 judge is appointed and is up for election in 2022,  is that a retention election?

No, it will be a special election (along with District 3). Retention for Supreme Court judges only goes into effect after a judge has been elected in their own right.

So then a Dem challenger will appear on the ballot for district 2?

Yes.

[Gracile]

Since everyone keeps drawing 14-3 gerrymanders, I guess it's safe to assume there is no practical way to draw a 15-2 gerrymander?

Look at the top post on the page

I don't think that 1st district is sustainable for Democrats throughout the decade (it's arguably more of a 14-1-2 than 15-2), and could easily flip in 2022. These other 14-3 maps would be much safer bets if the party is thinking in the long term.

[Gracile]

Since everyone keeps drawing 14-3 gerrymanders, I guess it's safe to assume there is no practical way to draw a 15-2 gerrymander?

Look at the top post on the page

I don't think that 1st district is sustainable for Democrats throughout the decade (it's arguably more of a 14-1-2 than 15-2), and could easily flip in 2022. These other 14-3 maps would be much safer bets if the party is thinking in the long term.

Sure, but we’d at least have a shot at flipping it and 14-1-2 > 14-3

My issue is more with the configurations (I'd much rather have a downstate district that connects all of the central cities with the Metro East as in Wasserman's map - as I think that would be more efficient in terms of holding up against trends), and the fact that it's still effectively going to be a 14-3 map in the end.

[Gracile]

Newman got a pretty crappy district. Wonder if they want Lipinski to come back?

I feel that Newman's demand for the mappers was to remove the Hispanic parts of her seat, since those were the areas that backed Lipinski in the primaries. Which they did, but didn't get give her some more white Liberal suburbs from the seats to her north. Maybe she'll demand revisions after seeing the overall topline.

That's not entirely true. If you compare '18 to '20 primaries she clearly made big inroads with Latino and Asian communities in Chicago, and I'm sure she wouldn't have much of a problem winning over those voters in a future primary. She's also keeping several of Lipinski's best areas (like Mount Greenwood which could have creatively been drawn into one of the other Chicago districts). Honestly, I would be pretty disappointed in that district if I was her.

[Gracile]

Seems like Dems were just as aggressive downstate as expected but less aggressive in Chicagoland. It is badly gerrymandered, but you could produce a more compact map that still shores up Underwood and Newman better than this one does.

Kinzinger would beat Newman in a Biden +6 seat...if he survives primary. Huge if but he would have significant crossover appeal while Newman will have plenty of problems. Dems would be wise to preempt problems and recruit a primary challenger (not named Lipinski).

I don't deny that Kinzinger would have crossover appeal in this district but I don't see why Newman in particular would have problems? She's slightly to the left of the average Democrat, sure, but in 2020 she actually overperformed Biden by a tiny amount while most Congressional Democrats ran a couple of points behind him.

The areas where Newman had the most pronounced overperformance (heavily Latino/Asian parts of Chicago - largely a function of presidential trends among non-white not materializing as much downballot) have been drawn out of this district.

[Gracile]

Also, Re: Kinzinger, one thing to keep in mind is that he's attacked/alienated a fair chunk of the ILGOP party apparatus including the Chicago GOP and Will County GOP organizations (the latter organization censured him) which are obviously both big parts of this district geographically. I doubt he will have much institutional support and it's easy to see them backing someone else who will trample him in a primary (maybe Mike Fricilone again?).

[Gracile]

The proposed map's districts in Chicago only have minimal changes (likely due to the more senior incumbents' preferences and parochial concerns), but there are some interesting changes in the city at the fringes. Most notably, IL-05 has taken in the gentrifying parts of Logan Square from IL-04 to make it more Hispanic, as well as predominantly white neighborhoods like the Ukrainian Village and Gold Coast from IL-07 which would increase the black plurality. IL-04 additionally took in some Hispanic precincts on the edge of the current IL-05. These are changes that I would expect to remain in place in the final map.

[Gracile]

This IL-03 would be a pretty good pickup opportunity for someone on the left.

[Gracile]

They really, really hate Newman it seems.

Indeed, it looks like the Madigan machine still has punch even if he is not running it anymore.

I do not think this is the case and certainly would not expect Casten to be favored in that seat.

That's what I noticed as well. They completely obliterated the current IL-06. In the abstract, that would make sense, since that district was originally drawn to be the Republican vote sink for Chicagoland. Obviously, trends have moved us past the need for such a district. But that's in the abstract, as opposed to reality with an actual Democratic incumbent. If I didn't know any better, I would think they're not too fond of Casten. On the other hand, it does like the most Democratic precincts from the current IL-06 are in the proposed new IL-06.

Why would you expect that Newman would win the D primary in the new IL-06? This does not look like progressive friendly territory and Casten has seniority over Newman.

In any case, combine this with the first draft which had Newman in a district with Kinzinger that she could easily lose to him, and to me it indicates that the IL legislature (a.k.a. machine) has the knives out for Newman.

Newman has a few things going for her, namely the geography of the new district (more of its residents are from her current district than Casten's, plus a bunch of new turf neither of them represents), as well as being a woman who centered her campaign around women's issues which I would think would be appealing to primary voters here (it's pretty obvious who organizations like EMILY's List, etc. would support in this race). Also, Downers Grove/Glen Ellyn/Lombard/etc. are incredibly similar demographically and politically to the areas around LaGrange that Newman dominated Lipinski in, so these differences that you are talking about are overstated.

[Gracile]

Foster's district was Biden +15.5, but also Pritzker +2.5, Raoul +3.5, Duckworth +3.5.

I think y'all are forgetting that suburban areas are still much more Republican downballot/locally than they are at the top of the ticket. For an apples to apples comparison, in 2016, while Foster's new district was Duckworth +3.5, it was Clinton +11.

I'm not saying that Foster is inherently in trouble, but he's a senior member of the delegation being taken from a solid D district to one that could be narrow in the right year for Republicans.

Meanwhile, Jan and Quigley are grumpy because their seats have been downgraded to D +29 or whatever.

How the district voted in various downballot races (where localized factors are much more at play) is pretty irrelevant to how it will vote in a House election. In our current political climate, districts won by a party by ~15 points (and aren't really moving toward the opposing party) are simply not on the board. Keep in mind, too, that incumbents like Foster and Krishnamoorthi were pretty much going to have to lose much of their Democratic turf to ensure that all the seats in Chicagoland are sufficiently Democratic and to make room for the 2nd Latino district. Thus their districts would become more Republican by necessity.

[Gracile]

Capitol Fax is alluding to possible trouble behind the scenes where the Latino caucus in the House is split on the maps, and Welch doesn't have the votes right now-

https://capitolfax.com/2021/10/28/remap-trouble/

[Gracile]

Newman has no chance against Garcia, so it's in her best interest to run in the new IL-06 - which still has much of her old turf, and IMO still has numerous advantages over Casten.

[Gracile]

Yep, Casten was understandably upset about the prior draft and pressured DuPage lawmakers to block it, hence the revision.

Also...

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1453884325137629189?s=20

IDK why but I find the small numb into Macomb/WIU in IL-17 funny. The IL Dems understandably trying to squeeze as much of the college town vote with laser-like precision into the two downstate districts as possible.