Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs need to stop touting PA is a lean Trump state since Biden is leading in Fitzpatrick's home district, it's not funny any longer, PA is a D state and so will WI, the 279 blue wall is affirmed🤩🤩🤩👍👍👍

Meaning there is no way for Trump to win

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1275414066039832578

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If the South rebuffs the Confederate statues taking down, they will rebel against the Ds and vote Solid R except of course, VA. Biden only needs 279 to win. That is a danger sign for Dems, since protesters remove Confederacy

[GeorgiaModerate]

PPP, June 19-20, 1013 RV (prior poll June 10-11)

Approve 41 (-2)
Disapprove 54 (nc)

Biden 52, Trump 43

GCB: D 52, R 41

[GeorgiaModerate]

Texas: PPP, June 18-19, 907 RV

Approve 48
Disapprove 46

Trump 48, Biden 46

[pbrower2a]

Texas: PPP, June 18-19, 907 RV

Approve 48
Disapprove 46

Trump 48, Biden 46

Not as big a change as the color change suggests.  The voting choice of those polled was 50 Trump - 41 Clinton, and Trump now has a 2% lead over Biden. The good news for Trump is that he has a slightly-better-than-even chance of holding Texas and staving off a 400-EV loss to a Democratic challenger. The bad news is that a 7% shift in Texas against him is close to the national average,and that means that Trump has as the prospect losing to Biden who gets somewhere between 290 and 375 electoral votes.   

Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ds arent winning AR, sorry

[pbrower2a]

Ds arent winning AR, sorry

Obvious outlier, and the only way in which any Democrat wins Arkansas is that the state reverts to patterns that it had with Carter in 1976 and Clinton in 1992 and 1996.

This said, there were plenty of polls that nobody believed in 2016 that suggested that Trump was winning some states that he ended up winning.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Siena College/NY Times Upshot, June 17-22, 1337 RV

Approve 41
Disapprove 56

Biden 50, Trump 36

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, June 21-23, 1500 adults including 1230 RV

Adults:

Approve 40 (-1)
Disapprove 53 (nc)

Strongly approve 23 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 42 (-2)


RV:

Approve 43 (+1)
Disapprove 55 (nc)

Strongly approve 27 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 46 (-2)

Biden 49 (-1), Trump 41 (nc)

GCB: D 48 (-1), R 41 (+1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Wisconsin: Marquette Law, June 18-21, 805 RV (change from early May)

Approve 45 (-2)
Disapprove 51 (+2)

Biden 49 (+3), Trump 41 (-2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

North Carolina: PPP, June 22-23, 1157 RV

Approve 45
Disapprove 47

Biden 48, Trump 46

Cunningham 44, Tillis 40

Cooper 50, Forest 41

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ohio: Quinnipiac, June 18-22, 1139 RV

Approve 44
Disapprove 53

Biden 46, Trump 45

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump is pretty much finished WI is plus 8, OH is plus 1 and NC is plus 2 Biden

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), June 22-23, 1115 adults including 934 RV

Adults:

Approve 39 (+1)
Disapprove 57 (nc)

Strongly approve 23 (+3)
Strongly approve 45 (+1)

Biden 43 (nc), Trump 34 (+1)


RV:

Approve 39 (nc)
Disapprove 59 (+1)

Strongly approve 25 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 49 (+4)

Biden 47 (-1), Trump 37 (+2)

[pbrower2a]

Wisconsin: Marquette Law, June 18-21, 805 RV (change from early May)

Approve 45 (-2)
Disapprove 51 (+2)

Biden 49 (+3), Trump 41 (-2)

Within range on the disapproval, but an 8% gap in support against the President with little over four months to go is difficult to undo.

Ohio: Quinnipiac, June 18-22, 1139 RV

Approve 44
Disapprove 53

Biden 46, Trump 45

Is there any question that if Ohio is a potential loss for the President that Michigan and Pennsylvania are both decisively gone against the President? An incumbent President does not win a state in which his disapproval is above 51% in late June. Biden has far more chance to gain votes in Ohio from this near-tie than does Trump.  

North Carolina: PPP, June 22-23, 1157 RV

Approve 45
Disapprove 47

Biden 48, Trump 46

Cunningham 44, Tillis 40

Cooper 50, Forest 41

Within the margin of error, but still a more likely Biden win than  a Trump win.  

If I am to give odds on Trump winning these states, Arizona, Florida (I will get back to you after I seek out the last credible poll), Iowa,  Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Texas:

AZ
FL
GA Biden 70 Trump 30
IA Biden 40 Biden 60
MI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
MN Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NH Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NC Biden 70 Trump 30
OH Biden 70 Trump 30
PA Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
TX Biden 20 Trump 80
WI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less

Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1275943304627212289

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1275943304627212289

Trump has had a reservoir of good will, and he has gotten away with much until he does real harm (like his bungled response to COVID-19) or scares people (endorsing violence, as for his sacrilegious display of a Bible). Trump got impeached for an effort to induce a foreign leader to expose dirt on Hinter Biden, surviving son of his main opponent... and got away with it.

His polls went down during what looked like a panic in the financial markets, but that reversed... for now. If the Dow goes back into the teens by Election Day, then he is in big trouble on that again.

It may be too early to establish that the reservoir of good will that he used to have is no more. But another factor is intervening against which Trump can do nothing. Unlike baseball but like most other sports, political races are timed events. Baseball teams have undone eight-run leads late in the game and can turn a near-zero chance of winning for a team down 8-0 at the start of its batting half of the seventh inning into an 85% chance of winning the game. (Take a look at Game 4 of the 1929 World Series between the Chicago Cubs and Philadelphia Athletics; Connie Mack's Philadelphia Athletics scored ten runs in its half of the seventh inning)

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/PHA/PHA192910120.shtml

In contrast, American football is a timed sport, and there are ways of making a twenty-point lead stick. I used to live in the Dallas area, and I saw lots of Cowboys games. Head Coach Tom Landry had a strategy that he could use to ensure  a win after scoring 20-30 points in the fourth quarter. Running up the score? That's kid stuff. Landry made the clock his ally as his twelfth man. On offense he committed to a time-killing offense that depends upon grinding out yards on running plays... five yards a play, and do that enough and you can get a ten-minute drive that either puts the opposing team in a bad field position or gets a field goal that might not be the killing play. On the other hand, Landry put a defensive strategy known as the nickel defense... five defensive backs to thwart practically any pass play that might be good for a good gain. So if the team behind tries to turn the game around fast, five defensive backs turn that effort into a high-risk effort that can result in an inordinate number of interceptions that might even result in defensive touchdowns causing things to go very bad even fast. The opposing team could spend three quarters looking good while losing or risk looking really bad due to interceptions.

Joe Biden may not have the political equivalent of Tom Landry's nickel defense on the political field yet, but I can see that happening.       

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

With the awful poll numbers we havent heard from Trump toupe for a while. Trump isnt beating Biden not would he have beaten Bernie with these bad poll numbers, no matter how badly Trump wants to get reelected.  He won in 2016 with help from Johnson and Obama's 3.5 percent unemployment. The tax cuts contributed to deficits and we have 45 M unemployment and we are in the Trump economy.  Obama raised taxes and didnt contribute to deficit tax cuts

[GeorgiaModerate]

CNBC All-America Economic Survey, June 19-22, 800 RV (change from April)

Approve 39 (-7)
Disapprove 52 (+9)

Biden 47 (+3), Trump 38 (-1)

This is usually a good poll for Trump.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Approvals from the NYT/Upshot state polls:

Once again, 2016 this is not:

ARIZONA
Trump approval: 42/55 (-13)
Trump fav: 43/55 (-12)
Biden fav: 46/48 (-2)

FLORIDA
Trump approval: 43/54 (-11)
Trump fav: 43/55 (-12)
Biden fav: 47/47 (=)

MICHIGAN
Trump approval: 41/55 (-14)
Trump fav: 42/55 (-13)
Biden fav: 50/45 (+5)

NORTH CAROLINA
Trump approval: 45/52 (-7)
Trump fav: 44/52 (-8)
Biden fav: 51/46 (+5)

PENNSYLVANIA
Trump approval: 41/56 (-15)
Trump fav: 42/56 (-14)
Biden fav: 50/48 (+2)

WISCONSIN
Trump approval: 41/56 (-15)
Trump fav: 43/56 (-13)
Biden fav: 53/45 (+8)

[pbrower2a]

Once again, 2016 this is not:

ARIZONA
Trump approval: 42/55 (-13)
Trump fav: 43/55 (-12)
Biden fav: 46/48 (-2)

FLORIDA
Trump approval: 43/54 (-11)
Trump fav: 43/55 (-12)
Biden fav: 47/47 (=)

MICHIGAN
Trump approval: 41/55 (-14)
Trump fav: 42/55 (-13)
Biden fav: 50/45 (+5)

NORTH CAROLINA
Trump approval: 45/52 (-7)
Trump fav: 44/52 (-8)
Biden fav: 51/46 (+5)

PENNSYLVANIA
Trump approval: 41/56 (-15)
Trump fav: 42/56 (-14)
Biden fav: 50/48 (+2)

WISCONSIN
Trump approval: 41/56 (-15)
Trump fav: 43/56 (-13)
Biden fav: 53/45 (+8)

...here is how it translates into the prospective vote:

Arizona: Biden 48%, Trump 41%

Florida: Biden 47%, Trump 41%

Michigan: Biden 47%, Trump 36%

North Carolina: Biden 49%, Trump 40%

Pennsylvania: Biden 50%, Trump 40%

Wisconsin: Biden 49%, Trump 38%

...just let that sink in. Trump cannot yet crack 41% in any of these states, but Biden has hit at least 47% in all of them. Horrid disapproval numbers in each of them ensure that the President cannot crack 47 in any of them. Unless something changes catastrophically for Biden or some demonic miracle delivers for Trump, then Trump loses. The object of approval ratings is to predict an electoral result, and when the approval ratings are this bad this early, and one can't associate them with some emotional roller-coaster (like the latitude of the front in the Korean War) that can swing wildly, then the President cannot win.


If I am to give odds on Trump winning these states, Arizona, Florida (I will get back to you after I seek out the last credible poll), Iowa,  Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Texas:

and now I get to handicap Arizona and Florida based on a very recent poll

AZ Biden 80 Trump 20
FL Biden 70 Trump 30
GA Biden 70 Trump 30
IA Biden 40 Biden 60
MI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
MN Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NH Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NC Biden 80 Trump 20
OH Biden 70 Trump 30
PA Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
TX Biden 20 Trump 80
WI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less

The states swing together. But a lamebrained attack on a Governor doing her job right  instead of obeying him and letting her state take the hit for his incompetence and cruelty was a bad idea:

Shocker! It looks like Trump picking a fight with Michigan was - surprisingly - a terrible move by him!

A high-profile clash with Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan encapsulates the president’s challenge. Mr. Trump sided with protesters who opposed her stay-at-home orders, but voters in the state oppose the protests against social distancing restrictions by 57 percent to 37 percent.

As of now, 59 percent of voters in Michigan disapprove of Mr. Trump’s handling of the coronavirus, the highest level of disapproval in any battleground state polled. And nearly 40 percent of registered voters there, including 11 percent of Republicans, say he has treated their state worse than others in response to the pandemic.

I may be citing Sun Tzu or Clausewitz (I have not read them) without knowing it, but it is best to choose battles wisely. The fascists thought that waging war against a country led by a cripple would be far easier than it turned out to be. Leadership is far more a matter of intellect than of legwork.

Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

[emailking]

CNBC All-America Economic Survey, June 19-22, 800 RV (change from April)

Approve 39 (-7)
Disapprove 52 (+9)

Biden 47 (+3), Trump 38 (-1)

This is usually a good poll for Trump.

Another 16 point change. 😲

[CookieDamage]

I have a hard time seeing Biden lose states where he has a positive fav rating and Trump is in the dumps with double digit negative approval ratings.

[pbrower2a]

With the awful poll numbers we haven't heard from Trump troupe for a while. Trump isn't beating Biden not would he have beaten Bernie with these bad poll numbers, no matter how badly Trump wants to get reelected.  He won in 2016 with help from Johnson and Obama's 3.5 percent unemployment. The tax cuts contributed to deficits and we have 45 M unemployment and we are in the Trump economy.

Obama raised taxes and didn't contribute to deficit tax cuts

Just to remind you of the usual prattle:

1. No vote has yet been cast, and there is plenty of time for Americans to come to their senses  and vote for Trump.

2. Trump has a super-secret strategy that will work in the end. How super-secret? It has yet to form!

3. Joe Biden will be linked to a scandal, even if the scandal or the connection is fabricated.

4. An economic miracle will happen.

5. People will quit caring about the 120K + people who died as a result of COVID-19.

6. Trump won in 2016, and we haven't seen an incumbent President lose after only one term of his Party's Presidency in the White House since 1980.

7. All electoral seasons are dynamic, and good things can happen for Trump.

8. Polls are meaningless four months out. As just about every political loser says, "the only poll that matters is the electoral result".

...it is far more likely that the British Royal Family will find a way in which to cut Prince Andrew out of the line of succession and make it stick. It is also more likely that the Detroit Tigers will win the 2020 World Series (although I can imagine the World Series going on in November due to a delayed, if still truncated, season, so that may not be relevant). OK, supposedly the Detroit Tigers have some better pitching this time... and it is also theoretically possible that CATS will win an Academy Award for Best Picture. Or that a snowstorm will make a mess of Houston traffic in July.