Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[Badger]

This. At this point it seems highly unlikely indeed that Trump could Flip any Clinton States. His poll numbers in Michigan and Pennsylvania have been anywhere from poor to DOA. Any Democrat flipping those two states alone would be enough to deny Trump re-election, assuming no more than 1 Democratic collector flipped to vote for Trump rather than a third party, which would of course simply move the election into the presumably democratic-controlled house.

None of this even requires places like Iowa, Georgia, Maine 2nd District, or above all Wisconsin, to flip.

You're wrong about that. The Democrat would fall very slightly short of 270 if they hold every Clinton state and just win Michigan and Pennsylvania. They'd need at least one more state with Wisconsin being the top contender. That's why the scenario you described would actually be the nightmare scenario where one state, probably by a less than 1% margin, once again robs a Democrat of a victory in the electoral college (by two f***ing electoral votes!) while they simultaneously win the popular vote, probably by 3 points or more.

You are right. My math was off. It's been a long working Sunday for me. I have spent every moment not on that list, which admittedly it's been a fairly large part of today, working since around 8:30 this morning. Not including the nap I just took

[pbrower2a]

This. At this point it seems highly unlikely indeed that Trump could Flip any Clinton States. His poll numbers in Michigan and Pennsylvania have been anywhere from poor to DOA. Any Democrat flipping those two states alone would be enough to deny Trump re-election, assuming no more than 1 Democratic collector flipped to vote for Trump rather than a third party, which would of course simply move the election into the presumably democratic-controlled house.

None of this even requires places like Iowa, Georgia, Maine 2nd District, or above all Wisconsin, to flip.

You're wrong about that. The Democrat would fall very slightly short of 270 if they hold every Clinton state and just win Michigan and Pennsylvania. They'd need at least one more state with Wisconsin being the top contender. That's why the scenario you described would actually be the nightmare scenario where one state, probably by a less than 1% margin, once again robs a Democrat of a victory in the electoral college (by two f***ing electoral votes!) while they simultaneously win the popular vote, probably by 3 points or more.

It would be 268 for the Democrat should Trump still win both ME-02 and NE-02. Still, after that there are plenty of ways for Trump to lose.

We can reasonably rule out Trump losing one of ME-02 and NE-02 and losing the House. The House remains gerrymandered to the benefit of Republicans, so Trump could still lose Michigan and Pennsylvania by 10% or more and get majority R House delegations in both states. For him to lose in the House his Party would have to lose a raft of single-district House delegations safely R at this point... or lose a state that Democrats rarely win, like Alaska or Montana, in which case he is almost certainly losing the electoral votes of such a state. Such would put the Democrat at 272.

There barest D win is for the Democrat to win all Clinton states, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and both ME-02 and NE-02.  That is 270. (There is another way to get 270 on the button, but that involves all Clinton states... and Texas. Highly unlikely, for obvious reasons). 

Iowa, with a mere six electoral votes, clinches at 274 or 275. (Not 276? 270 means the scenario involving the wayward state Congressional districts). Of course, Iowa usually votes in tandem with Wisconsin, which without Iowa puts the Democrat at 278 or 279.

In order of their likely calls on Election Night,  Georgia puts the Democrat at 284 or 285; Ohio at 286 or 287; North Carolina at 283 or 284; Texas at 316 or 317; Florida at 298 or 299; and Arizona at 280 or 281.

[pbrower2a]

As if Oklahoma offered any question of how it stands for the 2020  Presidential election: it would go to him even in a loss analogous to those of Hoover in 1932 and Carter in 1980. It is from early December, but nobody can argue in principle against an unknown pollster about a state that leaves few political questions unanswered.   



Trump has much more of a chance to lose Kansas than Oklahoma. Oklahoma could be his strongest state, and it could be the only one in which he gets 60% of the popular vote. 

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over  or over 50%
45-49% and negative

tie (white)

45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

[GeorgiaModerate]

New Mexico: Emerson, Jan. 3-6, 967 RV

Approve 39
Disapprove 54

Sanders 59, Trump 41
Buttigieg 55, Trump 45
Biden 54, Trump 46
Warren 54, Trump 46

[pbrower2a]

New Mexico: Emerson, Jan. 3-6, 967 RV

Approve 39
Disapprove 54

Sanders 59, Trump 41
Buttigieg 55, Trump 45
Biden 54, Trump 46
Warren 54, Trump 46

This is the first statewide poll that I see from 2020, and it is of a state that rarely gets polled (New Mexico). It is almost a month newer than the poll from early December involving Oklahoma. If there is no reasonable doubt that Trump cannot lose Oklahoma, there is far more doubt by that standard that Trump is sure to lose new Mexico. On the fringe of contention in 2016, it won't be close. At this stage, an incumbent does not win re-election when his disapproval is above 51%.   

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over  or over 50%
45-49% and negative

tie (white)

45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/FiveThirtyEight/status/1214546454305488896

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/FiveThirtyEight/status/1214546454305488896

Ford did get close to winning the 1976 election. Trump had serious faults in running for the President. He had never run for any statewide office -- not for the US Senate, and not for the Governorship. He figured it out -- but too late. Ford had a significant primary challenge in Ronald Reagan, which did not help him.

Ford was a far better person, and that helped him get close. Trump is in no way likable. The more that people get to know him, the less they like him. He knew how to play up resentments in 2016; in 2020 he will need more. It will not be enough for him that the economy hums along for the Right People; he has promised prosperity so strong that people can ignore the inequity that goes with it.

Trump played up populist resentments that usually go against the rich -- against the educated middle class. He promised to tear down that educated middle class that very poor people with horrible jobs (let us say, convenience-store clerks who witness as a cash-register transaction someone fueling his bloated RV and the boat that it tows while getting stuff for one big party to be enjoyed at a nearby lake or beach) that barely feed a family even if three such jobs between two adults. Trump promised to make the educated middle class suffer... and he has done his best to do that so that the Master Class can live in even more ostentatious splendor.

Why does it work? Because the people with those crappy jobs never see the distant super-rich. But they see the middle class which lives well.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data, Jan. 6-7, 1115 adults.  This is usually weekly, but they skipped the last two weeks for the holidays. 

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 53 (+1)

Strongly approve 23 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 42 (+2)

[pbrower2a]

Ipsos Core Political Data, Jan. 6-7, 1115 adults.  This is usually weekly, but they skipped the last two weeks for the holidays. 

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 53 (+1)

Strongly approve 23 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 42 (+2)

Effectively an anticlimax. No change -- except in the "strongly approve", which at -3 is close to the margin of error. There were no shocking events over the Holiday season (this poll comes from before  the strike on the Iranian general of the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, and especially before the President threatened to destroy 52 cultural sites in Iran. A comment: should the vile regime of the ayatollahs disappear, Iran will be an attractive place for tourists with an interest in antiquities to be found nowhere else on Earth; it will be as if a country like Greece "opened up" to share its glorious heritage). 

As low as "strongly approve" was, a 3% drop in the absolute number is about 12% in the category. This suggests that the core support of Donald Trump is eroding. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

As low as "strongly approve" was, a 3% drop in the absolute number is about 12% in the category. This suggests that the core support of Donald Trump is eroding. 

Not necessarily.  26% strong approval in the previous poll was unusually high and apparently a blip; 23% is more typical of where it's been for the past couple months. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Jan. 5-7, 1500 adults including 1185 RV

Adults:

Approve 43 (+3)
Disapprove 50 (-2)

Strongly approve 27 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 42 (nc)

Approve of impeachment? Yes 48 (+1), No 41 (nc)

Remove Trump? Yes 45 (nc), No 43 (+2)


RV:

Approve 43 (-1)
Disapprove 54 (+1)

Strongly approve 30 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 47 (+1)

Approve of impeachment? Yes 51 (-1), No 44 (+1)

Remove Trump? Yes 47 (-1), No 44 (nc)

2020 (RV only): Generic D 49 (-1), Trump 41 (+1)

GCB (RV only): D 48 (-2), R 40 (nc)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Arizona: PPP, Jan. 2-4, 760 voters

Approve 46
Disapprove 52

Biden 46, Trump 46
Trump 47, Sanders 46
Trump 47, Warren 45
Trump 47, Buttigieg 44


Iowa: PPP, Dec, 29-31, 964 voters

Approve 48
Disapprove 48

This seems unusually high for Trump compared to other Iowa polls.

Trump 49, Buttigieg 48
Trump 49, Biden 46
Trump 49, Sanders 44,
Trump 49, Warren 44

[Person Man]

Arizona: PPP, Jan. 2-4, 760 voters

Approve 46
Disapprove 52

Biden 46, Trump 46
Trump 47, Sanders 46
Trump 47, Warren 45
Trump 47, Buttigieg 44


Iowa: PPP, Dec, 29-31, 964 voters

Approve 48
Disapprove 48

This seems unusually high for Trump compared to other Iowa polls.

Trump 49, Buttigieg 48
Trump 49, Biden 46
Trump 49, Sanders 44,
Warren 49, Sanders 44

That’s the path for Trump. Never Trumpers come home and Never Hillary voters stay home.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Arizona: PPP, Jan. 2-4, 760 voters

Approve 46
Disapprove 52

Biden 46, Trump 46
Trump 47, Sanders 46
Trump 47, Warren 45
Trump 47, Buttigieg 44


Iowa: PPP, Dec, 29-31, 964 voters

Approve 48
Disapprove 48

This seems unusually high for Trump compared to other Iowa polls.

Trump 49, Buttigieg 48
Trump 49, Biden 46
Trump 49, Sanders 44,
Warren 49, Sanders 44

That’s the path for Trump. Never Trumpers come home and Never Hillary voters stay home.

It's ridiculous of you to assume any Democrat is going to sit home this time... especially after what happened four years ago. This election is going to have record turnout.

[Brittain33]

Warren 49, Sanders 44

We should be so lucky.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Warren 49, Sanders 44

We should be so lucky.

LOL.  I fixed the OP - it's Trump 49, Warren 44.

[Hammy]

Arizona: PPP, Jan. 2-4, 760 voters

Approve 46
Disapprove 52

Biden 46, Trump 46
Trump 47, Sanders 46
Trump 47, Warren 45
Trump 47, Buttigieg 44


Iowa: PPP, Dec, 29-31, 964 voters

Approve 48
Disapprove 48

This seems unusually high for Trump compared to other Iowa polls.

Trump 49, Buttigieg 48
Trump 49, Biden 46
Trump 49, Sanders 44,
Warren 49, Sanders 44

That’s the path for Trump. Never Trumpers come home and Never Hillary voters stay home.

It's ridiculous of you to assume any Democrat is going to sit home this time... especially after what happened four years ago. This election is going to have record turnout.

I'm hoping that's the case, but never underestimate the "my candidate or bust" factor--there are many Biden fans who will stay home if anybody to his left is the nominee, and likewise Bernie fans who will stay home if anybody to the right is the nominee.

[pbrower2a]

Arizona: PPP, Jan. 2-4, 760 voters

Approve 46
Disapprove 52

Biden 46, Trump 46
Trump 47, Sanders 46
Trump 47, Warren 45
Trump 47, Buttigieg 44


Iowa: PPP, Dec, 29-31, 964 voters

Approve 48
Disapprove 48

This seems unusually high for Trump compared to other Iowa polls.

Trump 49, Buttigieg 48
Trump 49, Biden 46
Trump 49, Sanders 44,
Trump 49, Warren 44

 

My criterion is really the chance of winning for a Democrat or Trump... that Trump leads everyone in Iowa puts it in the blue category despite being a tie in approval and that Trump at worst (for him) ties the strongest Democrat suggests that Arizona is effectively a tie.
Glengarriff, Michigan: Trump approval 47-49. But every Democrat beats Trump. Go figure.

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over  or over 50%
45-49% and negative

tie (white)

45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

[Bidenworth2020]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Jan. 5-7, 1500 adults including 1185 RV

Adults:

Approve 43 (+3)
Disapprove 50 (-2)

Strongly approve 27 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 42 (nc)

Approve of impeachment? Yes 48 (+1), No 41 (nc)

Remove Trump? Yes 45 (nc), No 43 (+2)


RV:

Approve 43 (-1)
Disapprove 54 (+1)

Strongly approve 30 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 47 (+1)

Approve of impeachment? Yes 51 (-1), No 44 (+1)

Remove Trump? Yes 47 (-1), No 44 (nc)

2020 (RV only): Generic D 49 (-1), Trump 41 (+1)

GCB (RV only): D 48 (-2), R 40 (nc)

Yougov really stands out in its variation between adults and RV, particularly in the swings between the groups.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Michigan: Glengariff Group, Jan. 3-7, 600 LV via live phone interviews

Approve 47
Disapprove 49

Strongly approve 29
Strongly disapprove 44

Biden 50, Trump 43
Bloomberg 47, Trump 41
Sanders 49, Trump 45
Buttigieg 45, Trump 43
Warren 46, Trump 44

[Person Man]

Michigan: Glengariff Group, Jan. 3-7, 600 LV via live phone interviews

Approve 47
Disapprove 49

Strongly approve 29
Strongly disapprove 44

Biden 50, Trump 43
Bloomberg 47, Trump 41
Sanders 49, Trump 45
Buttigieg 45, Trump 43
Warren 46, Trump 44

This is the one that has Peters up only by 4? This poll has Trump as more controversial than unpopular.

[Cinemark]

Michigan: Glengariff Group, Jan. 3-7, 600 LV via live phone interviews

Approve 47
Disapprove 49

Strongly approve 29
Strongly disapprove 44

Biden 50, Trump 43
Bloomberg 47, Trump 41
Sanders 49, Trump 45
Buttigieg 45, Trump 43
Warren 46, Trump 44

This is the one that has Peters up only by 4? This poll has Trump as more controversial than unpopular.

Theres always the usual note about Michigan polling. Even Nate Cohn had trouble getting a representative sample.

[Progressive Pessimist]

That Michigan poll has Trump's approval/disapproval ratings surprisingly high in spite of him doing so relatively poorly in match-ups against the Democrats. It makes me feel slightly optimistic about this state. I don't know if I am convinced 100% that it will flip, but it will definitely be the first Trump state to flip and signal that Trump is going to do worse overall than in 2016. Will it be enough for him to not get re-elected though? I guess we'll see.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1215416481988718592?s=21

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1215416481988718592?s=21

For Wisconsin, I'll take it!