International COVID-19 Megathread

[It’s so Joever]

In a bit of good news, the J&J and AstraZeneca vaccine trials are resuming after being paused.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/10/23/covid-19-vaccine-trials-from-astrazeneca-johnson-johnson-to-restart/

[Silent Hunter]

Attempted arson on the Robert Koch Institute in Berlin

[urutzizu]

Testing and Contact tracing in Germany (or at least here where I live, Incidence: 112/100k) has essentially collapsed. Anecdotally, but waiting times for positive Test results up to 7 Days and even worse delays in informing close contacts. Some health authorities in other parts of the country have said they will only follow up those with contact in risk groups and are telling other people to inform their contacts themselves. Not even the one of the best contact tracing systems in Europe can cope with this surge.

For this reason the meeting between the Federal Government and the States has been advanced to Wednesday, where new restrictions are planned, which have been leaked (as much as I usually despise the publication in question, they have been spot-on everytime in the past on this). The Federal Government wants a partial lockdown nationwide, similar to Netherlands/Belgium. Restaurants and Bars shut down, Social contacts and events severely restricted, Schools and Shops to stay open. They hope that by acting (in their view) earlier then other countries in their respective infection curves, the measures can be lifted after two weeks (similar hopes have not materialized the rest of Europe). Likely there will be resistance from many of the eastern state governments.
France similarly will apparently formalise new restrictions then, and Macron will most likely be forced to drop his resistance to limited confinement, because Nightly Curfews and Masks outside are unsurprisingly not really having any impact.

Seems very difficult to get around pretty severe restrictions to economic life. And so what every politician in Europe ruled out repeatedly, seems coming. It's very sad that we have so unimaginative politicians. The Pandemic has really laid bare the schism between the West and Asia.

[President Johnson]

I'm actually worried we already have to go into some form of a lockdown within the next weeks (not announced yet, but likely). I mean, it's just late October. The warmer season is at least four-five months away. We may get numbers down during a November lockdown, but what then? After Christmas, all over again?

I know it's hardly possible, but in theory the best solution would be worldwide total shutdown of two or three weeks. With all wages and prices frozen.

[palandio]

[...]

Seems very difficult to get around pretty severe restrictions to economic life. And so what every politician in Europe ruled out repeatedly, seems coming. It's very sad that we have so unimaginative politicians. The Pandemic has really laid bare the schism between the West and Asia.

It should be remarked though that while e.g. people in Japan and South Korea are probably also more disciplined regarding masks, hygiene and social distancing, one of the key indicators of lack of immagination in the West is that we think it's all about masks, hygiene and social distancing. Yes, these thing certainly help, but they alone are insufficient to suppress the virus. Instead Japan and South Korea have very soon become very effective at tracing and isolating, particularly backwards-tracing. They are of course using some quite intrusive instruments for it, but at least it works. Here in Europe the best we can do is to run behind the infection chains and document them until everything gets out of hand.

[palandio]

[...]

I know it's hardly possible, but in theory the best solution would be worldwide total shutdown of two or three weeks. With all wages and prices frozen.

I think that there are too many jobs that need to be done even during a total shutdown. The next problem is that infection chains in households, nursing homes, student dorms, asylum seekers' mass accomodation, etc. would not stop.

The only thing that a short total shutdown would achieve is to delay the problem by a few weeks in the best case.

I know that you said "in theory" but this is like saying "if all people were balls of density 0.001 g/m^3..."; they're not, case closed.

[parochial boy]

In all honestly, I'm having a hard time seeing a second lockdown even having anything like the desired effects. Back in March we had the moods of national solidarity combined with a very real fear of a virus that seemed to be deadly in 2-3% of the cases. Now, there is a public mood that is... noticeably tetchier; a fairly natural level of fatigue when it comes to hearing about the virus; and a level of fear that, now that many (most?) people will actually personally know someone who has been infected and basically been ok, that has moved on from the virus to the economic fall out.

Combine that with basically no European government having a credible promise as to how they just don't simply go back into another wave once the next set of restrictions gets released; I'm not really seeing people being so happy to follows the rules this time. Some of the more tense social situations (eg French Banlieues) could even be heading for a pretty explosive deconfinement as well, judging by how frisky things got the first time round.

[Middle-aged Europe]

According to a poll from today, support for the government's Corona restrictions in Germany has collapsed quite a bit, with both the "do not go far enough" and "go way too far" numbers having gone up. Polarization instead of consensus.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

why is covid so bad here?

[LAKISYLVANIA]

The situation in the neighbouring Czech Republic is nuts:

15.300 new daily infections yesterday (in US terms: 480.000 new daily cases)

126 dead yesterday (in US terms: 4.000 new deaths per day)

Austria had +3.600 new cases yesterday and 11 dead.

17709 new daily infections yesterday
89 dead yesterday

11.46 million live in Belgium
10.65 million live in Czechia

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

In all honestly, I'm having a hard time seeing a second lockdown even having anything like the desired effects. Back in March we had the moods of national solidarity combined with a very real fear of a virus that seemed to be deadly in 2-3% of the cases. Now, there is a public mood that is... noticeably tetchier; a fairly natural level of fatigue when it comes to hearing about the virus; and a level of fear that, now that many (most?) people will actually personally know someone who has been infected and basically been ok, that has moved on from the virus to the economic fall out.

Combine that with basically no European government having a credible promise as to how they just don't simply go back into another wave once the next set of restrictions gets released; I'm not really seeing people being so happy to follows the rules this time. Some of the more tense social situations (eg French Banlieues) could even be heading for a pretty explosive deconfinement as well, judging by how frisky things got the first time round.

Because first lock-down was way too harsh and too long and second one will be economically impossible'ish?


Still, there is a lot of countries that will reach their hospital capacity in 2-3 weeks (and deaths are lagging by about same period which makes policy implementations so urgent). In that case it will get very ugly very fast... Then what?


FT: Switzerland risks running out of intensive care beds in 11 days

[palandio]

[...]

why is covid so bad here?

1. Bad luck: Numbers that are two or three times higher than in other countries look like a huge difference, but in the end it just means that you are two weeks ahead.
2. Bad weather: Good weather which allows people to meet outside is probably what has saved Greece, rural Apulia, Calabria and Andalucia until a few days ago.
3. Population density: In most parts of the world agglomerations and densely populated areas are hit worse. Belgium is a densely populated country.
4. Parts of society living in crowded conditions and having many social contacts.
5. (Insufficient) protection of vulnerable groups.
6. Efficacy of local tracing efforts. It should be said that in one European country after the other (except maybe Norway and Finland) contact tracing has been proven insufficient: Spain, France, UK, Italy, Germany,... Probably Flemish local health authorities kept up a bit longer than local health authorities in Brussels and Wallonia.

[palandio]

In all honestly, I'm having a hard time seeing a second lockdown even having anything like the desired effects. Back in March we had the moods of national solidarity combined with a very real fear of a virus that seemed to be deadly in 2-3% of the cases. Now, there is a public mood that is... noticeably tetchier; a fairly natural level of fatigue when it comes to hearing about the virus; and a level of fear that, now that many (most?) people will actually personally know someone who has been infected and basically been ok, that has moved on from the virus to the economic fall out.

Combine that with basically no European government having a credible promise as to how they just don't simply go back into another wave once the next set of restrictions gets released; I'm not really seeing people being so happy to follows the rules this time. Some of the more tense social situations (eg French Banlieues) could even be heading for a pretty explosive deconfinement as well, judging by how frisky things got the first time round.

Because first lock-down was way too harsh and too long and second one will be economically impossible'ish?


Still, there is a lot of countries that will reach their hospital capacity in 2-3 weeks (and deaths are lagging by about same period which makes policy implementations so urgent). In that case it will get very ugly very fast... Then what?


FT: Switzerland risks running out of intensive care beds in 11 days

We're in a really bad situation here, but our planning horizon has to cover the next few months. Measures that can't be sustained over a few months and only have short term effects, don't make a lot of sense.

[parochial boy]

In all honestly, I'm having a hard time seeing a second lockdown even having anything like the desired effects. Back in March we had the moods of national solidarity combined with a very real fear of a virus that seemed to be deadly in 2-3% of the cases. Now, there is a public mood that is... noticeably tetchier; a fairly natural level of fatigue when it comes to hearing about the virus; and a level of fear that, now that many (most?) people will actually personally know someone who has been infected and basically been ok, that has moved on from the virus to the economic fall out.

Combine that with basically no European government having a credible promise as to how they just don't simply go back into another wave once the next set of restrictions gets released; I'm not really seeing people being so happy to follows the rules this time. Some of the more tense social situations (eg French Banlieues) could even be heading for a pretty explosive deconfinement as well, judging by how frisky things got the first time round.

Because first lock-down was way too harsh and too long and second one will be economically impossible'ish?


Still, there is a lot of countries that will reach their hospital capacity in 2-3 weeks (and deaths are lagging by about same period which makes policy implementations so urgent). In that case it will get very ugly very fast... Then what?


FT: Switzerland risks running out of intensive care beds in 11 days

We're in a really bad situation here, but our planning horizon has to cover the next few months. Measures that can't be sustained over a few months and only have short term effects, don't make a lot of sense.

Yeah, exactly. I mean, it's easy to criticise especially as I don't have any better solutions - although its not my job to have any. But it does seem that pretty much every government is just displaying a lack of creative thinking and foresight and is just sort of picking measures like throwing darts at a dartboard and seeing what sticks. So we have measures that don't make sense and don't really have any impact other than making it look like they're doing something, like obligatory masks outdoors or curfews, and seemingly a failure of planning in terms of working on the things like contract tracing, or capacity planning or really anything that would keep the numbers steady over a long period of time. For instance, even after all the contract tracing efforts over the summer, we still don't even have a particularly good idea how where people are getting infected and when - which surely should be the basis for making policy about what restrictions you want now.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

The doubling time of corona cases in Italy in Germany is now ~8 days. France/Spain ~12 days, USA/UK ~25 days.



Stocks start to fall again.






Mask mandate in Russia from today.

https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1321146083343540225

[Silent Hunter]

It seems to me that a halfway functioning society and suppressing the virus are not fully possible. The only way out is a vaccine and if that doesn't work (unlikely), then we will have tough choices to make.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Angela Merkel and the heads of the sixteen German states have their next crisis meeting today. Merkel as a Corona hardliner is pushing for a month-long so-called "lockdown light" - which increasingly sounds like a real lockdown - in November. Aside from support she's receiving from states like Bavaria or NRW in this matter, there's also some resistance. Bodo Ramelow (Left), the minister-president of Thuringia, has in particular responded with a flat-out NO. The FDP is also highly criticial of the proposed restrctions although their opposition doesn't matter as much since they're not in the conference of the minister-presidents themselves (theoretically though they could try to further water down any decisions made today in the three states they're part of the government).

[CumbrianLefty]

It seems to me that a halfway functioning society and suppressing the virus are not fully possible. The only way out is a vaccine and if that doesn't work (unlikely), then we will have tough choices to make.

Tbf the aim with most seems to be *controlling* the virus at an acceptably low level rather than fully suppressing it - but of course the former is also proving incredibly difficult in practice.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Both Merkel and Macron are expected to introduce lock-downs lite today. How lite they will be is to be seen.

Merkel of Germany:
https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-angela-merkel-and-state-leaders-debate-imposing-lockdown/a-55421241

The German press reported ahead of the meeting that Merkel wants a "lockdown light" — a less intense version of the measures that brought German society and economic activity to a standstill in the spring. This would see schools and kindergartens remain open, but restaurants, bars and some shops close for at least a month. Large events would also once more be canceled and unnecessary travel discouraged.

Macron of France:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/28/france-expected-to-impose-four-week-national-lockdown-covid

There had been speculation the government would introduce an earlier curfew or partial lockdowns in areas worst hit by Covid-19. However, on Tuesday evening it was widely reported that Macron would announce a four-week national confinement similar to the two-month lockdown imposed in March and April.

The details were a matter of speculation but it was suggested all bars and restaurants across the country would be required to close. It was not clear if all shops would be allowed to remain open or only those selling essential goods, as during the spring lockdown.

BFMTV reported official sources had confirmed that schools and certain public services would remain open, but other reports suggested secondary and high schools would close.

Europe seems to try to keep school open this time in contrast to (D) in USA.

[Silent Hunter]

We found online learning wasn't working for most pupils.

[Alcibiades]

We found online learning wasn't working for most pupils.

Especially poorer and more disadvantaged ones.

[Samof94]

Argentina is in bad shape right now, especially considering their size.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Switzerland to impose limited set of new Covid rules

Switzerland’s government agreed limited new restrictions to public life on Wednesday -- including mask-wearing outdoors -- but ruled out harsher restrictions, including a lockdown, as it sticks to its plans to prioritise the economy and social wellbeing in the coming months.

..........


The council’s limited decision on further restrictions follows warnings from public health authorities in the country in recent days -- and sets Switzerland apart from many of its European neighbours, who are now introducing sweeping new measures to contain the virus.

FT: Germany to shut parts of economy after record rise in Covid cases

Germany's federal and state governments agreed on Wednesday to shut down parts of the economy and toughen restrictions on social contact, in a bid to stem a record rise in coronavirus infection rates.

The new regulations will be imposed as of Monday and last until the end of November, in what some local media described as an attempt by officials to curb infection rates ahead of the Christmas season.

The new regulations will require all restaurants, bars, and most public entertainment to be closed. The Bundesliga and other professional sports games will be held without spectators. Schools, daycare centers, hair salons and retailers can remain open.

...........


To help affected businesses cope with the shutdown, the new decision also pledged a €10bn aid package that can provide business up to 75 per cent compensation for their losses, depending on the size of the company.

BBC: Coronavirus: France set for second national lockdown - Macron

French President Emmanuel Macron has announced a second national lockdown for at least the whole of November.

Mr Macron said under the new measures, starting on Friday, people would only be allowed to leave home for essential work or medical reasons.

Non-essential businesses, such as restaurants and bars, will close, but schools and factories will remain open.

Covid daily deaths in France are at the highest level since April. On Tuesday, 33,000 new cases were confirmed.

Mr Macron said the country risked being "overwhelmed by a second wave that no doubt will be harder than the first".

The president said that people would need to fill in a form to justify leaving their homes, as was required in the initial lockdown in March.

I believe he said that the 2nd wave will probably be more deadlier, but that he hopes lockdowns will lead to more peaceful Christmas.



Pick your winner.
France - basically back into full lockdown
Switzerland - masks mandate and modest (??) restrictions "prioritise the economy and social wellbeing"
Germany - somewhere in between, probably closer to France?

[parochial boy]

10 person limit for private groups; 15 for things like sports clubs/public spaces; restaurants and bars are seated only and close at 11pm; clubs are shut and the outdoor masks are basically in crowded spaces where you can't otherwise keep your distances. They seemed to be going with the logic that similarish rules in May still held the R at under zero - and even the first lockdown was much less harsh than it was elsewhere. The weirdest new rule is that they figured, seeing as Switzerland basically has the highest number of infections as anywhere, that there was no point in having "risk countries" and so it is now possible to come to Switzerland without having to quarantine at all from basically anywhere in the world. Apart from some really bad ones like Armenia or the Hauts-de-France.

Going somewhat off topic though, an funny cultural comparison is between the Swiss Federal council announcing the measures at a low-key press conference; with about 10 civil servants and scientists joining in; Alain Berset pulling out his dry one liners and everyone getting barked at by journalists - versus Macron's ego-trip pomp and circumstance discours from the Élysée like he is the king or something.

[President Johnson]

Yeah, lockdown in Germany set to begin on Monday and last throughout November. Bars, clubs, fitness centers, indoor swimming pools and theaters will have to close again. Schools remain open, restaurants can offer deliveries or pickups. No more than 10 people from two households are allowed to meet.

I think closing restaurants is a mistake. They're already under pressure and hardly drive up the numbers. I have been to restaurants numerous times this year, and all guests are actually playing by the rules.