International COVID-19 Megathread

[Silent Hunter]

Wuhan is a highly populated city, so this could have easily been passed around there before anyone noticed it.

[Silent Hunter]

I'd like to actually see that Iran study; those models tend to give their estimates in terms of 98% probability bands and the 3.5 million number is likely at the top end of that.

3.5 million globally is, alas, not an unrealistic figure.

[Silent Hunter]

Be curious to know how respected the full lockdowns i.e. how many people are being fined. It seems our best hope of getting a lid on this is going to be effective treatments and ultimately a vaccine.

[Silent Hunter]

That was the initial UK idea, but the Imperial College projections said that would still lead to a quarter of a million deaths in the UK alone.

[Silent Hunter]

Our main hope is this acts like other coronaviruses and becomes a lot less transmittable once the weather warms up. That and we get a pretty hot summer.

[Silent Hunter]

The Oberammergau Passion Play, which I had a ticket for, has been postponed until 2022 after the local authorities in that area prohibited the organisers from holding the full May to October run.

[Silent Hunter]

The thing with Covid-19 is that it isn't generally killing on its own, it's often doing it in combination with other conditions. If your lung function is already severely damaged, then any form of viral pneumonia could kill you.

[Silent Hunter]

Indeed. Although control is going to be difficult, considering how much the government advice is being ignored in some places.

[Silent Hunter]

That will likely be the best solution in the medium-term. Short-term we will need social distancing.

If we can keep the global death toll below 1 million, it will be a success.

[Silent Hunter]

It won't kill many people (certainly those of non-pensionable age) on its own, but can cause serious long term effects in previously healthy individuals including permanent lung damage.

Another reason why trying to control it ASAP is the best policy.

I haven't read anything that covid-19 causes long term health damage among recovered patients. In mild cases, lungs aren't even affected by the disease since the virus primarily replicates in the throat.

It's too early to tell.

[Silent Hunter]

Italy is also a very 'social' culture with a high smoking rate and the Lombardy area also has a lot of pollution. That will impact lung function.

[Silent Hunter]

Question that comes to mind for me is why are so many of the tests coming back negative?

[Silent Hunter]

There aren't frankly enough cops and military in any country to enforce a total, nationwide lockdown. The Chinese could only do it for one province.

[Silent Hunter]

There aren't frankly enough cops and military in any country to enforce a total, nationwide lockdown. The Chinese could only do it for one province.

Well, however many are available should be put to that use. Every little bit helps.

Agree, but we may end up with a choice between using those people to deliver key supplies and trying to enforce lockdowns that will be widely violated.

[Silent Hunter]

Agree. Evidence from mobile data in Lombardy suggested 40% violation of the 400 metres from your home rule.

Some places are imposing curfews already.

[Silent Hunter]

Everywhere has a severe shortage.

[Silent Hunter]

That's not true. Everybody in East Asia wears a mask. As said above, East Asian countries managed to contain the virus wearing masks... but also through the use of big data. The Chinese could feel entitled to tell us their model of authoritarian capitalism and massive digital surveillance is superior

Considering that they failed to contain the pandemic in the first place, they'd be wrong.

[Silent Hunter]

Those countries also have more recent experience with pandemics; we really don't.

[Silent Hunter]

UK now effectively in lockdown with police enforcement, but their statutory powers to do this is somewhat limited.

There's the capacity to do an Order in Council under the Civil Contingencies Act, which only lasts for 30 days. Also, you've got the Coronavirus Bill.

[Silent Hunter]

Cases in Austria have exploded today, after a relatively quiet weekend.

Maybe they didn't test/release as much over the weekend and only released the results today ?

Anyway, 4.500 cases now.

Test figures are no longer reliable now; we need to look at deaths.

[Silent Hunter]

A lockdown of 3 to 4 weeks will buy us time to develop treatments (not necessarily a vaccine) that will save lives.

[Silent Hunter]

The treatments are already being trialled; although they're not yet approved.

[Silent Hunter]

These of course are sadly people who have already contracted it; any measures will take time to have an impact.

[Silent Hunter]

This situation is bringing out the best in some and the worst in others.

[Silent Hunter]

You'll likely get a lot of fluctuations in case numbers at this point; statistics tend to be like that.