International COVID-19 Megathread

[Alcibiades]

One thing I don't really get is announcing these arbitrary end dates. Like, one thing we can take away from last time is that they never actually wound up being relaxed when originally planned. At least the authorities here are honest enough to admit that they don't know how long it will take, and that the measures will stay open ended for as long as necessary.

I do think that there is some utility to announcing an end date; it means people are less likely to break the rules if they have an end goal, reducing ‘Covid fatigue’.

Dunno, personally I'd rather have the authorities treat me as if I was an adult with the ability to understand that things are complicated, rather than promising a clearly fictional end date.

We had no end date set the first time round and people followed the rules because they trusted the government. I think that is probably a more important factor, and announcing an end date that winds up meaningless seems a pretty good way to break that trust.

Wether you are an adult or not, having a potentially unlimited restriction on many enjoyable things is pretty depressing. The point is, we could lockdown for as long as we want to if the goal was simply in and of itself suppressing the virus until other means are available, but in the UK’s case, it is to stop the current surge and have a semblance of a normal festive season. People ought not to trust their government on an indefinite lockdown, but can when the aim is clear.

Except that it's basically make believe isn't it? We know how long it took for the lockdowns to work the first time round, starting from a similar starting point, and it wasn't 2-4 weeks. So what do you do in the UK and in France when you get to late Novermber and the case numbers and hospitalisations are plateauing, or only just starting to decline? Relax the restrictions knowing full well you are setting yourselves up for a disaster by New Year? Or keep them in place having failed to fulfil the promise you made?

This is one of the sides of neoliberalism that I am glad has not made it over the channel to be honest. Needing to set arbitrary targets for everything, because everything must be definable and measurable in order to assess whether it has been a success or not. "Competition" at every level of society, and obviously its become such a norm that its impregnated how people think about everything - and they apparently even need some target to be pulled out of thin air to even ensure that they behave properly.

Perhaps, I'm putting this out there, the problem is not that the people don't trust the government, it's that the government doesn't trust the British people? It's not surprising then, that people won't act trustworthily, if you treat them from the outset as if they can't.

The point is you can have a lockdown as long as you want depending on just how low you want to get cases. Indeed, the lag effect means that if a lockdown has had an effect, this may not show up in the stats for another couple of weeks. Suppressing the virus is a means to an end (reducing deaths and enabling more normal life), not an end in itself, and indefinite lockdowns risk doing greater harm to those two ends, even if they suppress the virus further. And yes, as horrible as it sounds, there is no reason for governments to trust people to follow unpleasant rules without an incentive to do so.

[CumbrianLefty]

The more general point about neoliberalism in the UK is correct, though.

Its actually one of the main indictments of Blair's time as PM.

[Tender Branson]

Austria lockdown 2.0 will start Monday @ midnight:

https://www.thelocal.at/20201031/austria-to-go-into-hard-new-lockdown-starting-tuesday

[Tender Branson]

Austria Lockdown 2.0 measures + rules (Google Translate):

From Tuesday, new, significantly stricter rules to contain the corona virus will apply in Austria.

This includes a nighttime curfew between 8 p.m. and 6 a.m. except for strictly defined exceptional cases. The catering industry is only allowed to offer pick-up and delivery services, hotels are prohibited from accepting tourists. Theaters, museums and other leisure facilities must also close.

The measures at a glance:

The exit restrictions prohibit leaving the private living area between 8 p.m. and 6 a.m., except in certain exceptional cases:

* Avoidance of an immediate danger to life, limb and property;

* Caring for and providing assistance to people in need of support as well as exercising family rights and fulfilling family duties;

* Covering the necessary basic needs of daily life;

* Professional purposes, if necessary;

* Staying outdoors for physical and mental relaxation, including walking with or without a dog or jogging.

The exit restrictions apply after the approval of the main committee of the National Council on Sunday until November 12th, but should be extended several times until the end of November. They should be strictly controlled, as well as the ban on garage and garden parties, the government announced. From Tuesday, only a maximum of two households can meet.

Distance rule still applies

The distance rule of one meter continues to apply in public spaces to all people who do not live in their own household. A mask must also be worn in closed rooms. Children up to the age of six are exempt from the mask requirement, as are people with a corresponding certificate.

Mouth and nose protection must also be worn in public transport as well as in subway stations, bus stops, airports, etc., in addition to - if possible - the minimum distance of one meter. Carpooling and taxi rides are only permitted if only two people are seated per row of seats (including the handlebars).

There are exceptions for the transport of kindergarten children and for the transport of people with disabilities. Cable cars, gondolas and lifts may not be used for leisure purposes and are reserved for professional athletes. This means that skiing falls flat on prepared slopes.

Wedding celebrations prohibited

Religious communities have their own rules to minimize the risk of infection. In any case, mouth and nose protection must be worn indoors. A maximum of 50 people are allowed to attend funerals, the minimum distance rule and MNS obligation apply. Weddings are prohibited, but you can marry at the registry office.

The one-meter distance between people must also be maintained at the workplace - provided there are no other protective measures (plexiglass walls, etc.). If both are not possible, mouth and nose protection is mandatory. Home office is recommended where possible.

Gastronomy and hotels have to close

The gastronomy has to close, it is only allowed to offer pick-up and delivery services. Bars, inns and nightspots remain closed.

Hotels are not allowed to accept tourists, there is an exception for business trips.

This time the trade can stay open without restrictions. However, only one customer is permitted on ten square meters, and customers must also wear a mask, as must employees, unless other protection options (Plexiglas) are available. Personal services - such as hairdressers and cosmetic studios - are still allowed.

Leisure facilities remain closed

All theaters, opera and concert halls as well as museums must close by November 30th. Exceptions are rehearsals and artistic performances without an audience, which are carried out for professional purposes. Gyms and indoor swimming pools also have to close.

Events are completely prohibited. This includes, for example, cultural and sporting events, but also wedding celebrations, birthday parties and Christmas markets. Parks remain open.

All contact sports are prohibited, including football. Individual and recreational outdoor sports are allowed as long as there is no physical contact. Sports facilities are closed to amateur athletes, apart from outdoor sports facilities where there is no physical contact (such as golf and tennis courts, athletics facilities).

Top athletes and their coaches, on the other hand, are allowed to enter sports facilities and practice their sport professionally and take part in international competitions - but without spectators.

Kindergartens open, universities too

In contrast to the first lockdown in March, schools and kindergartens will remain open. This was justified with the corresponding request from parents and countries, among others. However, the upper level goes into distance learning, and there should also be stricter mask requirements. The same applies to universities, they too should be involved in distance learning.

Strict rules for retirement homes and hospitals

Visits to hospitals, sanatoriums and retirement and nursing homes are limited. Up to and including November 17th, visits are only allowed every two days, only one person is allowed to come, whereby there is a total limit of two different visitors.

All visitors must either show a negative test result or higher quality respiratory protection.

The minimum distance must be observed. Exceptions are palliative and hospice care as well as pastoral care. External, non-medical service providers are prohibited from entering retirement and nursing homes.

Employees in the respective facilities - depending on availability - must present a negative PCR or antigen test result every week. Alternatively, a higher quality mask can be worn throughout the job.

https://orf.at/corona/stories/3187480

[parochial boy]

The point is you can have a lockdown as long as you want depending on just how low you want to get cases. Indeed, the lag effect means that if a lockdown has had an effect, this may not show up in the stats for another couple of weeks. Suppressing the virus is a means to an end (reducing deaths and enabling more normal life), not an end in itself, and indefinite lockdowns risk doing greater harm to those two ends, even if they suppress the virus further. And yes, as horrible as it sounds, there is no reason for governments to trust people to follow unpleasant rules without an incentive to do so.

But the incentive is save lives surely? People have an amazing ability to be, you know, good, when you let them be. Just think how effective the "save the NHS" message was the first time round.

And indefinite doesn't mean "forever" it means "until it is the right time", ie if we work together we'll get there faster - not, here's a random date plucked out of thin air that will ultimately prove to be irrelevant

[Silent Hunter]

For many that sounds like "the floggings will continue until morale improves".

[Mike88]

Costa's press conference is almost over. But the new measures are the following:

121 municipalities, covering 7,1 million people, will have, after November 4th:

- Civic duty of staying home;
- Mandatory teleworking and shifting hours between workers;
- Shops have to close at 10PM;
- Restaurants and bars can only have groups of 6 people and have to close at 10:30PM;
- Events and celebrations limited to 5 people;
- Fairs are markets are forbidden;

Costa also said that there are only 70 beds still available in ICU for Covid patients and announced the hiring of 350 nurses for ICUs and more doctors until January 2021.

He also said he asked for a meeting with Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa to ask for a declaration of a state of emergency in these 121 municipalities.

[Mike88]

Costa's press conference is almost over. But the new measures are the following:

121 municipalities, covering 7,1 million people, will have, after November 4th:

This is the map of municipalities under the new measures:

https://twitter.com/asofia_santana/status/1322638717404794886

[Tender Branson]

Former presidential candidate Norbert Hofer (FPÖ) has been tested positive (mild symptoms).

[Meclazine for Israel]

Zero new cases in Australia today.

We are not opening international borders until after we get a vaccine. We might let some NZ citizens in and form a bubble.

I cannot believe Europe let in suicidal muppets from Tunisia to kill people during COVID-19 lockdown.

Someone is not doing their job in the French medical team.

I don't think we will be open until July 2021.

[CumbrianLefty]

It seems that our PM hopes for credit as the man who "saved Christmas".

This may be.....optimistic.

[Mike88]

The first death by Covid-19 in the Madeira islands was reported today.

[Estrella]

First round of Slovakia's mass testing took place on Saturday and Sunday. Almost exactly 1% were positive, around 25k people. There were some hiccups - missing tests here, wrong size protective suits there, no certificates elsewhere - but they were almost always quickly solved. I'm genuinely surprised how smoothly it went: I didn't exactly expect a disaster, but the whole thing was almost amazingly succesful.

The numbers for today aren't in yet, but yesterday was... impressive. Not to get all patriotic, but to test 2.5 million people, almost 50% of the country's population, in just 15 hours, without any significant chaos or panic, now that is something. Can't imagine that happening in many "more developed" countries. Dobrá práca!

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

It seems that our PM hopes for credit as the man who "saved Christmas".

This may be.....optimistic.

If I recall correctly, both Macron and Merkel "hopes" same thing, and talked about it in their announces of 2nd Lockdowns.


An example from today's speech:

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1323263077593288706

[Estrella]

The mass testing in Slovakia is over - the first part, that is.

- 3,625,332 people participated, that is 66.7% of total population and 90.5% of population aged 10 to 65 - older people were recommended to stay home and from what I heard, they mostly did.
- 38,359 tests were positive, 1.06% of those tested.
- Positivity rates by district ranged from 0.27% (Revúca) to 3.22% (Čadca).
- A second round of testing will take place next weekend in 54 of 79 districts - those where more than 0.7% were positive.

An interesting tidbit: while theatres and such were often used as testing sites, the testing usually took place in the lobby - but not everywhere.

Also there's this (is it really him tho?)

[Silent Hunter]

So, that's basically 10 times higher than the previous Slovak record.

[palandio]

The weekly number of new cases seems to have peaked in the Czech Republic, Belgium and the Netherlands, although that could be statistical artefacts of limited testing capacity. Let's hope that deaths will begin to decline very soon, too. It would be really interesting to see the real numbers for these countries, i.e. how many people have been infected so far.

Also Bergamo province has now the lowest case rate of Northern Italy which makes sense because it was hit the hardest by the wave in March with an overmortality of ca. 0.5% of the whole population.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

The weekly number of new cases seems to have peaked in the Czech Republic, Belgium and the Netherlands, although that could be statistical artefacts of limited testing capacity. Let's hope that deaths will begin to decline very soon, too. It would be really interesting to see the real numbers for these countries, i.e. how many people have been infected so far.

Also Bergamo province has now the lowest case rate of Northern Italy which makes sense because it was hit the hardest by the wave in March with an overmortality of ca. 0.5% of the whole population.

Yeah, cases in BG are growing very slowly compared to most of the rest of Italy. The nearby province of Brescia has actually been following a very similar curve too.

[Hollywood]

So a strain has mutated in Denmark that jumps from minks to humans, forcing officials to cull the mink herd.  Terrible news.  They were studying coronavirus in Wuhan for its ability to attack the same cells as HIV, and they observed its potential to avoid antibody responses like HIV.  If it can quickly mutate while jumping from animals to humans to animals, doesn't that put the breaks on vaccinations being a bullet-proof defense that can be successfully repeated?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/nov/06/coronavirus-live-news-us-records-global-record-102000-new-cases-as-world-suffers-highest-daily-deaths

This is looking like a repeat of pandemic history in Europe and the Northern US with Covid-19 making a return in the temperate latitudes with the arrival of dry air in the winter months.  I took a look at some of September and October weather records for the areas currently being hit hardest by the virus, and it appears drier areas are correlating with increased spread.  I think it's safe to assume that seasonal patterns of virus spread like we saw with influenza applies to the current situation.  The introduction of a novel virus has been associated with terrible resurgences during fall and winter when the population hasn't had enough exposure during the last winter and recent summer, while spread during summer months is associated with more tolerable viral rates and mortalities.  This is according to a few studies done on the 1918 pandemic showing spread in Denmark during the summer brought about much less severe consequences during winter. 
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0238339

“The strong seasonality evident in mortality records from mid‐latitude locations suggests that climatic factors may amplify cold‐season death rates.  As respiratory mortality exhibits the strongest winter peak of all broad mortality categories,3 it has been suggested that influenza and related mortalities may (significantly or perhaps even entirely) account for the winter mortality peak.”
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4910181/

“Exposure of mice to low humidity conditions rendered them more susceptible to influenza disease. Mice housed in dry air had impaired mucociliary clearance, innate antiviral defense, and tissue repair function. Moreover, mice exposed to dry air were more susceptible to disease mediated by inflammasome caspases.” https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6561219/

 

[Tender Branson]

So, daily deaths in the CZ Rep. are at 200 ...

The country went from 700 deaths a month ago to 4.500 today.

Austria is also up to 60-80 deaths per day.

[Hollywood]

Coronavirus Mutation in minks could threaten Vaccine Efficacy. 200 people have been infected with the Mink-linked virus.  "Researchers at Copenhagen’s Statens Serum Institute received lab results that many had long feared. A mink-related coronavirus appeared to be less affected by the Covid-19 antibodies from several people who’d previously been infected."
https://www.scmp.com/news/world/europe/article/3108909/coronavirus-mutation-minks-could-threaten-vaccine-efficacy

Recently, we found out that a study of 87 recovered Covid-19 patients retained inactive particles and proteins of the virus that are lying in the gut.  Animals studies over the last decade discovered that these proteins can eventually mutate in the guts of Minks and feline cats to produce a more deadly species of the virus.  https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3168282/

[Mike88]

Portugal: António Costa just announced, in a midnight press conference, several new measures that will start next week with the new State of Emergency:

- Mandate temperature control in working places, public transports and shops;
- Rapid tests will be conducted in schools, health facilities, day care centers and for people who enter or leave the country;
- Private hospitals will be more used by the NHS;
- Mobilization of the army, public employees to control people infected with the virus;
- Curfew on week days between 11PM and 5AM;
- Curfew on weekends between 1PM and 5AM;

[Tender Branson]

It’s spilling in from the CZ Republic now in unprecedented numbers:

https://twitter.com/corinnamilborn/status/1325678070456528896
CoViD-19 Rolling 14-day prevalence in Austrian districts per 100k inhabitants:

[CumbrianLefty]

But we can now be cautiously optimistic about a vaccine being available soon, after today's news.

[Alcibiades]

But we can now be cautiously optimistic about a vaccine being available soon, after today's news.

If the vaccine does end up having 90% efficacy, then only 2/3 of the population will need to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity.