International COVID-19 Megathread

[parochial boy]

Thinking about it, once this is over, it could have some pretty interesting consequences. Not just the obvious around free-speech and cover-ups in China and the like - but in the last few days we've seen things like travel bans and borders being closed and no-one even thinking to complain. In the near future, we might have some companies starting to think long and hard about how China, or Asia, or even "abroad" fits into their supply chain planning as a whole. I think this more than any thing else could wind up leading to the biggest inversion of the norms around globalisation that we have seen yet - even more so than the rise of the radical right.

[parochial boy]

In the near future, we might have some companies starting to think long and hard about how China, or Asia, or even "abroad" fits into their supply chain planning as a whole.

What do you mean?

In the world as it is, it isn't so much just the fact that things are "Made in China", but lots of finished products have components that are made and assembled over by a number of different suppliers in a number of different countries across the world.

For the most part, this has had its advantages in allowing businesses to take advantage of things like comparitive advantage, specialisation, economies of scale across the world (eg cheaper labour in country x, proximity to natural resources in country y, better skills in country z). The downside of this, as the virus seems to be making clear, is that one disruption in the network can be the cog in the machine that brings the whole mechanism to a halt. Which is why you have had the likes of car manufacturers in Korea or pharma companies in the west having to shut down production, they can't get the parts they need.

[parochial boy]

Something like 70'000 commuters cross from Lombardy into Switzerland into every day, as of yet no special measures being put in to place on the border.

It's, um, a little bit scary.

[parochial boy]

Silly hysteria IMO.

The lethal rate is only 2% of those infected and the vast majority is old people above 80 ...

2% means it is something like 20 times more lethal than the flu.  2% of a lot of people is a lot of people.

Also a significant number of those infected require medical attention, often for a long period of time, perhaps something like 10%.  No country in the world has the capacity to treat that many people effectively, let alone in addition to non-coronavirus related illnesses.

Harvard epidemiology professor Marc Lipsitch estimates that 40% to 70% of the world's population could get infected by the Coronavirus within a year. At a population of 7.7 billion people and a fatality rate of 2% this would mean a death toll of 60 to 110 million people worldwide.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/

In raw numbers this would be about in the range of the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918, although back then there were of course fewer people living on the planet overall (a little under two billion) which would make the Coronavirus actually less severe than the Spanish flu.

Although the flip side is a large number of unreported cases almost certainly means the death rate is significantly lower than that 2-3%.

And, alternatively, a more reassuring picture from a WHO epidemiologist who reckons that the mortality rate is more like 0.5-1% taking unreported cases into account and that a major pandemic is unlikely considering that China has already shown that it is possible to get it it under control.

[parochial boy]

I think we're now at 46 total reported cases in Germany, 32 of them in the last two days. A that rate we're gonna overtake the United States very soon.

Probably because we're testing much more than the United States. California has over 8,000 people monitored at this point and not sufficient testing.

Aside from that, I have more faith in the federal government to handle this than the Trump Administration is performing so far. Hopefully state and local governments in the US can be more effective.

And because we are now looking for it in people who have been to Italy. Up until a few days ago there will have been plenty of people getting the virus, but without a China link would just have been considering it as the flu, and getting through it like normal. Now we’re looking for those people so, obviously, we’re finding them.

Dunno about elsewhere but seems like the media have been trying to play a reassuring line here. Lots of epidemiologists and virologists talking about the majority of cases being mild, the death rate almost certainly being  overestimated and so on. Sometimes there’s some credit to the boring, sensible Swiss.

[parochial boy]

The news coming out of Italy is totally bizarre. Apparently they’re testing basically everything that moves to try and work back to the first case, which is why the numbers have shot up, rather than because hundreds of new people are actually falling ill every day; the 17 fatalities all had serious underlying conditions; and only about half the 800 people who have tested positive are even « sick for real » (weird term?)

The WHO also seem to be coming to the conclusion that, factoring unreported but subsequently identified cases, the real mortality rate is around 1%

[parochial boy]

On that notes it's possible that the slower spread in Hong Kong and Singapore relative to the colder climates in Europe, North America or Japan and Korea is a positive sign. Although, it's also likely the case that both countries having experienced the SARS crisis just means they were better prepared for something like this.

[parochial boy]

On that notes it's possible that the slower spread in Hong Kong and Singapore relative to the colder climates in Europe, North America or Japan and Korea is a positive sign. Although, it's also likely the case that both countries having experienced the SARS crisis just means they were better prepared for something like this.

There isn't really any difference in spread between northern and southern China, though, even though the temperatures are hugely different. Guangdong is one of the larger nodes outside of Wuhan.

Guangdong is the single largest destination for migrants leaving Hubei (and is the most populous privince), which would have been exacerbated by the peak of the crisis in China coming around the time of the New Year migration. So in that respect you probably would have expected to see a lot of cases there.

And by the time you get to even Zhejiang, you already have fairly cool winters.

[parochial boy]

First fatality in Switzerland today, a 74 year old who had a pre-existing respiratory condition. The government also strengthened the public events ban today; any even with over 150 people must be pre-approved by cantonal authorities before they can take place. Closing the border with Italy is a complete non-option, as a huge number of medical professionals in Ticino are cross-border commuters, so as long as the situation is bad in Italy we'll almost certainly keep on seeing a stream of cases.

A (normally rather clickbaity) Swiss website also interviewed a patient - now recovered but still in quarantine - twice. Once while she was sick and now that she has been released from hospital. I actually found them fairly comforting to read, a far cry from the kind of panic inducing alarmism that most of the media coverage has been.

[parochial boy]

China numbers suggest that they have Covid-19 under control (average 0.3% daily growth in confirmed cases last week, 0.4% for Hubei), how reliable are those numbers?

Likely fairly reliable. WHO people on location are corroborating that the number of people being hospitalized for respiratory issues in China have fallen massively over the last month, beds are being freed up, the queues of sick people have disappeared...

Whisper it, but it also looks as if the number of new cases on Korea have plateaued. It’s been around 500 a day for the last 10 days ago, so hopefully a sign of things starting to be brought under control

[parochial boy]

Apparently Italy is going full Hubei. Good. Much of the rest of the world should follow suit. It will be easier to slow down now than if we dilly-daddle for another few weeks until things get worse. Epidemics do not get better on their own. --- correction, actually they do get better on their own... after a large % of the population has been infected...

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1236374825175834624

This is how we can beat the virus! It worked in China. Sadly, just like China, Italy took too long to do this. Still it is better than nothing. Let’s hope other countries take suit and remove any leaders who don’t by any means necessary.

Nothing like Hubei actually. They’re still happily running trains between Switzerland and Milan as of this afternoon; people able to leave the regions concerned as long as they have a reason...

[parochial boy]

I haven't been posting about the situation here much, but it's starting to be pretty serious. We're actually about the 6th worst hit country per capita, and likely we'll go past China and South Korea in the next few days. Ticino alone is approaching 100 cases, which means it is as badly hit as Emilia-Romagna or Veneto relative to its population. I don't want to panic, but it's probably time to be ramping up the measures here (not reducing quarantine times, or limiting testing to people who are "at risk" FFS), as what's in place already has clearly not been working.

[parochial boy]

Looks like we'll be stepping up the measures here. All non-obligatory (ie collèges/gymnases, universities...) schools closing; ski resorts closing; bars, night clubs, cinemas closed; restaurants and hotels only allowed to stay open if they limit themselves to a capacity of 50 people respecting the 2m distance limit; all amateur sports events cancelled; and a ban on all events of over 50 people.

Lucky I went skiing last weekend

[parochial boy]

And in major international news of vast importance, Liechtenstein has closed its schools.

Both students will now have to stay at home.

[parochial boy]

Brazilian media are apparently now confirming that Bolsonaro has tested positive. 65 years old next week.

[parochial boy]

Slow down in the number of cases reported here today. Probably because it’s the weekend...

One thing I read, that did actually surprise me, is that apparently only two of the Italian deaths so far were people under the age of 40. And both had very serious chronic issues before hand

[parochial boy]

Probably a little point worth being aware of. If you fall sick avoid ibuprofen, aspirin and other anti-inflammatories.

A number of younger people in France who have developed serious symptoms all seem to share the fact that they took ibuprofen to manage their fever in the early stages of the disease.

[parochial boy]

Lots of countries aren't really reporting recoveries. Eg, both those sources show Switzerland as having 4 recoveries, but Zurich's own website is counting 11 recoveries in the canton alone. Most other cantons and the confederation aren't releasing any numbers on recoveries at all. So obviously you are going to be overstating the number of active cases, potentially by a lot, when you don't really have any statistics on recoveries to go by.

[parochial boy]

re-Euro 2020, I spoke to a friend who works for UEFA yesterday and his comment was that there is a meeting of all the federations on Tuesday, final decision is up to the federations themselves rather than UEFA and he didn't know how the meeting would go but figures most likely is they push to hold the thing in December. Then he complained about his commute and the fact he still wasn't allowed to work from home. Considering UEFA is full of old buffers on sinecures, that probably means we'll be seeing a dramatic drop in corruption and money laundering in the near future.

Anyway, we had 850 new cases here yesterday, which I think sends us up to second place in the number of cases per capita. In fact, per capita it's possibly the single worst day any country has had. Knowing how fast the political system moves here, we'll probably be going into lockdown at some point in 2026 after a referendum.

[parochial boy]

re-Euro 2020, I spoke to a friend who works for UEFA yesterday and his comment was that there is a meeting of all the federations on Tuesday, final decision is up to the federations themselves rather than UEFA and he didn't know how the meeting would go but figures most likely is they push to hold the thing in December.

Extremely sensible plan, can't see any obstacles to that at all

They've made so many terrible decisions about this tournament that it would be a shame to stop making them now...

[parochial boy]

We've joined the cool kids club. Going into lockdown. Everything must close except food shops, pharmacies, healthcare practioners, and banks. This is Switzerland after all.

And with a "giant brain" pseudo-eugenicist lurking in the background.

Small wonder that conspiracy theories have thrived.

Well you've got to admire his genius plan to kill off his own electorate.

[parochial boy]

...And Euro 2020 has been postponed for twelve months

[parochial boy]

The British response has been getting a bit of attention. The news here featured it using a Yes, Prime Minister sketch and then showed a load of tabloid headlines that seemed to think it was World War 2 again. Implication being that the UK seems to be having a totally normal one.

[parochial boy]

800 cases in Switzerland today, the number of cases per day is jumping around all over the place, which is apparently down to the cantons reporting individually and the fact that the OFSP (public health authority) is doing it's reporting using ... a fax machine... in 2020... in one of the richest countries on the planet...

I just don't understand where the stereotype that the Swiss are slow comes from.

[parochial boy]

Italy report, 5 p.m. today
deaths 3,405, sicks cumulative 41,035, recoveries 4,440, tests 182,777
fatality rate 8,3%

I heard the report a couple of hours ago. Forza

yeah, stories of people having to say to goodbye to loved ones over facetime. It's heartbreaking.