International COVID-19 Megathread

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://www.ft.com/content/f21cf708-759e-11ea-ad98-044200cb277f
Coronavirus: Is Europe losing Italy?
Furious at their plight being ignored and over resistance to coronabonds, Italians’ sense of betrayal deepens

A year ago Carlo Calenda ran in European parliamentary elections in Italy under the slogan “We are Europeans”, a rallying cry to defend his country’s place in the EU at a time of rising nationalism.

Now even Mr Calenda, a 46-year-old former minister and Italian permanent representative to the EU, is experiencing a crisis of faith in an idea he has spent a lifetime fighting for. 

“This is an existential threat, I am not sure if we are going to make it,” he says. “You have to consider my party is one of the most pro-European parties in Italy and I now have members writing to me saying: ‘Why do we want to stay in the EU? It is useless.’” 

[...]

“A massive, massive shift is happening in Italy. You have thousands of pro-Europeans moving to this position,” says Mr Calenda, who leads the recently formed liberal Action party.

[...]

There are already signs that Italian faith in the EU has been damaged. In a survey conducted last month by Tecnè, 67 per cent of respondents said they believed being part of the union was a disadvantage for their country, up from 47 per cent in November 2018.

A lot of damage has already been done.
There'll be HUGE economical damage for Italy, Spain and possible France. Will Germanic Countries want to pay? I don't know. I doubt it.


https://twitter.com/yanisvaroufakis/status/1246397358000267264

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

But these proposed "Corona-Bonds" are something else entirely. They are, yes, common Bonds guaranteed by all Euro countries, but they would not affect Debt currently held by Italy (which would remain their exclusive responsibility) nor would they affect any future debts incurred by the spending of their national governments (which would also remain their responsibility). The money borrowed would only cover healing the damage caused to Europe (esp. IT and ES) through this Virus, something those Countries would not be able to do, because Bonds guaranteed solely by their Governments would have unsustainable BBB or so interest rates, which they cannot afford. And, crucially, the Money would not be spent by their Governments, but by the EU commission, which is of course led by a conservative German woman. Germans will not trust Italian politicans, but we should be able to trust one of our own, surely? Lastly, one of the main reasons why many people here were unhappy about Eurobonds back in the day, was because it was seen as bailing out Countries, who (or rather who's politicians) were at least partially responsible for the mess they created. A view that probably had at least a degree of legitimacy. No one, I think, would suggest that this is the case this time round.  

Which really makes it quite hard for any sort of moral justification to oppose them. What's the issue for the Netherlands, really? A marginally higher interest rate on their own debt, coupled with the risk of eventually having to cough up for and Italian/Spanish bail out? I mean, what does Mr Rutte think the impact on his own economy that the break-up of the Eurozone, even the EU would be? Does he think that Amazon and Unilever and all those other nice companies that use his country to siphon money off to the Cayman Islands would be so happy and friendly if suddenly there were capital controls on money coming into the Netherlands from all of these much larger markets?

The thing that I am holding out on is that at least there has been some sort of an intellectual sea change on the question. When you have a guy like Michael Hüther publically revising his opinion; or even a newspaper like the Neue Zürcher Zeitung (not a friend of fiscal profligacy, or the EU for that matter), starting to criticise the frugal four then you are starting to run out of an intellectual justification for your insistance. At the very least, if Spain and Italy and France keep up the pressure then there might be some compromise over very low interest loans decoupled from any conditions.

I guess, same reason as why you can't give citizenship to Dreamers without fixing the broken immigration system - you'll give incentive to more people to come to US illegally.

Germany, Netherlands and, in fact, all Germanic Countries, are afraid that there will be more and more "special" bonds and no structural progress.

12 years after financial crisis and Southern Countries (esp Italy) hasn't rebounded yet. Pre-corona!

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD?end=2018&locations=IT-ES-DE-NL-FR-US&start=1990&view=chart

This time they'll probably get what they want, because too big to fail?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://www.ft.com/content/b984101a-42b8-40db-9a92-6786aec2ba5c
Eurozone countries strike deal on coronavirus rescue
Accord reached among euro area ministers after Dutch concede on bailout fund conditions 

Eurogroup finance ministers have reached an agreement on an emergency rescue package aimed at responding to the economic pain triggered by the coronavirus crisis.

Officials said that talks among players including the Netherlands, Italy, Germany and France on Thursday evening yielded a compromise position that can now be put forward for consideration by EU leaders 

Finance ministers clapped over their teleconference at the final accord. “We acted decisively for our citizens in less than a month,” Mário Ceteno, the eurogroup president, told ministers in the room 

Crucially, the text to be presented to EU leaders will not insist on placing macroeconomic conditions on credit lines from the bloc’s bailout funds. That had been a key demand of the Dutch government and was resisted by Rome. “The Dutch have compromised,” said a senior official in the talks.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

3.300 new cases today.

In US-terms, more than 122.000

I think we need to close down the country again soon.

Where are you getting that number? I can't seem to find today's update...

https://covid19-dashboard.ages.at/dashboard.html?l=en

Only 900 of 6500 beds are occupied, but their exponential growth of cases is quite bad.


Europe still has time, but soon even a full lock-downs won't be enough to keep hospitals from being overwhelming... while full lock-downs might break European Union for good...

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

In all honestly, I'm having a hard time seeing a second lockdown even having anything like the desired effects. Back in March we had the moods of national solidarity combined with a very real fear of a virus that seemed to be deadly in 2-3% of the cases. Now, there is a public mood that is... noticeably tetchier; a fairly natural level of fatigue when it comes to hearing about the virus; and a level of fear that, now that many (most?) people will actually personally know someone who has been infected and basically been ok, that has moved on from the virus to the economic fall out.

Combine that with basically no European government having a credible promise as to how they just don't simply go back into another wave once the next set of restrictions gets released; I'm not really seeing people being so happy to follows the rules this time. Some of the more tense social situations (eg French Banlieues) could even be heading for a pretty explosive deconfinement as well, judging by how frisky things got the first time round.

Because first lock-down was way too harsh and too long and second one will be economically impossible'ish?


Still, there is a lot of countries that will reach their hospital capacity in 2-3 weeks (and deaths are lagging by about same period which makes policy implementations so urgent). In that case it will get very ugly very fast... Then what?


FT: Switzerland risks running out of intensive care beds in 11 days

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

The doubling time of corona cases in Italy in Germany is now ~8 days. France/Spain ~12 days, USA/UK ~25 days.



Stocks start to fall again.






Mask mandate in Russia from today.

https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1321146083343540225

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Both Merkel and Macron are expected to introduce lock-downs lite today. How lite they will be is to be seen.

Merkel of Germany:
https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-angela-merkel-and-state-leaders-debate-imposing-lockdown/a-55421241

The German press reported ahead of the meeting that Merkel wants a "lockdown light" — a less intense version of the measures that brought German society and economic activity to a standstill in the spring. This would see schools and kindergartens remain open, but restaurants, bars and some shops close for at least a month. Large events would also once more be canceled and unnecessary travel discouraged.

Macron of France:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/28/france-expected-to-impose-four-week-national-lockdown-covid

There had been speculation the government would introduce an earlier curfew or partial lockdowns in areas worst hit by Covid-19. However, on Tuesday evening it was widely reported that Macron would announce a four-week national confinement similar to the two-month lockdown imposed in March and April.

The details were a matter of speculation but it was suggested all bars and restaurants across the country would be required to close. It was not clear if all shops would be allowed to remain open or only those selling essential goods, as during the spring lockdown.

BFMTV reported official sources had confirmed that schools and certain public services would remain open, but other reports suggested secondary and high schools would close.

Europe seems to try to keep school open this time in contrast to (D) in USA.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Switzerland to impose limited set of new Covid rules

Switzerland’s government agreed limited new restrictions to public life on Wednesday -- including mask-wearing outdoors -- but ruled out harsher restrictions, including a lockdown, as it sticks to its plans to prioritise the economy and social wellbeing in the coming months.

..........


The council’s limited decision on further restrictions follows warnings from public health authorities in the country in recent days -- and sets Switzerland apart from many of its European neighbours, who are now introducing sweeping new measures to contain the virus.

FT: Germany to shut parts of economy after record rise in Covid cases

Germany's federal and state governments agreed on Wednesday to shut down parts of the economy and toughen restrictions on social contact, in a bid to stem a record rise in coronavirus infection rates.

The new regulations will be imposed as of Monday and last until the end of November, in what some local media described as an attempt by officials to curb infection rates ahead of the Christmas season.

The new regulations will require all restaurants, bars, and most public entertainment to be closed. The Bundesliga and other professional sports games will be held without spectators. Schools, daycare centers, hair salons and retailers can remain open.

...........


To help affected businesses cope with the shutdown, the new decision also pledged a €10bn aid package that can provide business up to 75 per cent compensation for their losses, depending on the size of the company.

BBC: Coronavirus: France set for second national lockdown - Macron

French President Emmanuel Macron has announced a second national lockdown for at least the whole of November.

Mr Macron said under the new measures, starting on Friday, people would only be allowed to leave home for essential work or medical reasons.

Non-essential businesses, such as restaurants and bars, will close, but schools and factories will remain open.

Covid daily deaths in France are at the highest level since April. On Tuesday, 33,000 new cases were confirmed.

Mr Macron said the country risked being "overwhelmed by a second wave that no doubt will be harder than the first".

The president said that people would need to fill in a form to justify leaving their homes, as was required in the initial lockdown in March.

I believe he said that the 2nd wave will probably be more deadlier, but that he hopes lockdowns will lead to more peaceful Christmas.



Pick your winner.
France - basically back into full lockdown
Switzerland - masks mandate and modest (??) restrictions "prioritise the economy and social wellbeing"
Germany - somewhere in between, probably closer to France?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Why? Restaurants are the places where way to many strangers meet. Though, I don't know, if people will be OK with that.

10 person limit for private groups; 15 for things like sports clubs/public spaces; restaurants and bars are seated only and close at 11pm; clubs are shut and the outdoor masks are basically in crowded spaces where you can't otherwise keep your distances. They seemed to be going with the logic that similarish rules in May still held the R at under zero - and even the first lockdown was much less harsh than it was elsewhere. The weirdest new rule is that they figured, seeing as Switzerland basically has the highest number of infections as anywhere, that there was no point in having "risk countries" and so it is now possible to come to Switzerland without having to quarantine at all from basically anywhere in the world. Apart from some really bad ones like Armenia or the Hauts-de-France.

Going somewhat off topic though, an funny cultural comparison is between the Swiss Federal council announcing the measures at a low-key press conference; with about 10 civil servants and scientists joining in; Alain Berset pulling out his dry one liners and everyone getting barked at by journalists - versus Macron's ego-trip pomp and circumstance discours from the Élysée like he is the king or something.

Hands off Jupiter! He's only Liberal I respect. He is going to unyoke Europe from USA, break UK, throw Turkey from NATO, liberalise Islam and bring back Russia. Mark my words!

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

You don't spend as long in a restaurant as in a bar and sometimes families or individuals will go there. Also, you sit a lot further apart.

Obviously, bars are much worse. But they stil seems quite dangerous to me.

It's indoors.
A lot people go in and out during eating.
People don't have masks and talk and laugh, sometimes pretty loudly.
Infeasible to control if rules are followed.

R depends linearly on # of contacts. Even if the contacts are only semi-closed or/and indirect, you have a lot of them while in restaurants.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

It seems that our PM hopes for credit as the man who "saved Christmas".

This may be.....optimistic.

If I recall correctly, both Macron and Merkel "hopes" same thing, and talked about it in their announces of 2nd Lockdowns.


An example from today's speech:

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1323263077593288706

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Last few days have also seen a Russian claim of a 90% plus effective vaccine.

92% 

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/RegSprecher/status/1327612253080670210

Tender in 50 years tells the story of 2020 to someone else's children.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/MKuefner/status/1328262484420145152

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

It seems like a #'s of cases have started to go down/slow down in EU (especially in France). France impose lockdowns on Oct 30th, thought they started to enforce some restriction in big Metropolises already at the middle of October. I expect though that deaths' #s will keep rising ~1-2 weeks in France.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1373920524506644482

Well done, EU-bureaucrats!


White Libs in US managed to convince poor people that schools are dangerous. There will be a disastrous (for poors/minority, not for the White Libs) consequence because of it in years to come.

EU managed to convince people that AstraZeneca. In the middle of 3rd wave. We'll see what the consequences of it will be.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/MKuefner/status/1374236148793536514

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/sputnikvaccine/status/1374421314652442627

He got the One Shot to rule them all.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Tagesspiegel/status/1375003787572707329

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1377332172592279556

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Astrazeneca seems to become less "popular" in Germany than Sputnik V (because of East Germany)?

https://twitter.com/Tagesspiegel/status/1377304847372886018

Forsa-Umfrage: Deutsche vertrauen Sputnik V mehr als Astrazeneca
Einer RTL-Forsa-Umfrage zufolge würde sich eine knappe Mehrheit (51 Prozent) der Impfwilligen in Deutschland mit dem Wirkstoff von AstraZeneca impfen lassen, sobald dies möglich ist. Ablehnen würden im Moment 44 Prozent der Befragten ein Impfangebot mit Astrazeneca, skeptischer sind dabei Frauen: Während 60 Prozent der Männer sich mit Astrazeneca impfen lassen würden, sind es nur 40 Prozent der Frauen.

Den Vorschlag des bayerischen Ministerpräsidenten Markus Söder Politiker mit Astrazeneca impfen zu lassen, um das Vertrauen und die Akzeptanz in der Bevölkerung zu erhöhen, unterstützen 63 Prozent der Befragten, 28 Prozent sind dagegen,

Die Umfrage ergab ferner, dass sich 57 Prozent aller Befragten mit dem russischen Wirkstoff Sputnik V impfen lassen würden, der bislang noch nicht in der EU und in Deutschland zugelassen ist. 30 Prozent würden sich nicht damit impfen lassen. Das Vertrauen in den Impfstoff ist bei den Ostdeutschen größer als im Westen: Während sich 69 Prozent der befragten Ostdeutschen mit dem Wirkstoff impfen lassen würden, wären dazu nur 55 Prozent der westdeutschen Befragten bereit.

https://twitter.com/business/status/1377263273318432768

"as long as it is approved in the normal way by the EU’s regulator"

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1379367965745950720
https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1379417650305118213

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/EMA_News/status/1379794539456688137

AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine: EMA finds possible link to very rare cases of unusual blood clots with low blood platelets

EMA confirms overall benefit-risk remains positive
EMA’s safety committee (PRAC) has concluded today that unusual blood clots with low blood platelets should be listed as very rare side effects of Vaxzevria (formerly COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca).

In reaching its conclusion, the committee took into consideration all currently available evidence, including the advice from an ad hoc expert group.

EMA is reminding healthcare professionals and people receiving the vaccine to remain aware of the possibility of very rare cases of blood clots combined with low levels of blood platelets occurring within 2 weeks of vaccination. So far, most of the cases reported have occurred in women under 60 years of age within 2 weeks of vaccination. Based on the currently available evidence, specific risk factors have not been confirmed.

People who have received the vaccine should seek medical assistance immediately if they develop symptoms of this combination of blood clots and low blood platelets (see below).

The PRAC noted that the blood clots occurred in veins in the brain (cerebral venous sinus thrombosis, CVST) and the abdomen (splanchnic vein thrombosis) and in arteries, together with low levels of blood platelets and sometimes bleeding.

The Committee carried out an in-depth review of 62 cases of cerebral venous sinus thrombosis and 24 cases of splanchnic vein thrombosis reported in the EU drug safety database (EudraVigilance) as of 22 March 2021, 18 of which were fatal.1 The cases came mainly from spontaneous reporting systems of the EEA and the UK, where around 25 million people had received the vaccine.

COVID-19 is associated with a risk of hospitalisation and death. The reported combination of blood clots and low blood platelets is very rare, and the overall benefits of the vaccine in preventing COVID-19 outweigh the risks of side effects.

Vaxzevria is one of four vaccines authorised in the EU for protecting against COVID-19. Studies show that it is effective at preventing the disease. It also reduces the risk of hospitalisation and deaths from COVID-19.

https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1379801649951113218