International COVID-19 Megathread

[President Johnson]

I wonder how much potential this has for really big trouble? Could we see thousands of deaths around the world as a result of this, including a mass-hysteria?

[President Johnson]

It's probably going across the globe and, even if mortality rate is low, keep us busy for several months or even years. I don't think this will fade away quickly.

[President Johnson]

Update: One more case in Germany. This time in Baden-Württemberg (my state). Apparantly a 25 year old man who recently traveled to Italy.

[President Johnson]

It seems a huge uncertainty is that we still don't exactly know how infection works. In Italy, it's still unknown who "Patient 1" is and how the virus spread. Only through droplet infection or is the virus on basically everything someone touches? If the latter is the case, even regular hand washing isn't enough, because you often touch other things in between, such as bags, desks, computers, door handles etc. Then we're talking about the worst case, meaning a large junk of population (and a mortality of 2% or below is still a huge raw number).

[President Johnson]

14 new cases in Northrhine Westphalia today while 4 additional in Baden-Württemberg just confirmed. Also two more deaths in Italy reported a few hours ago. It starts getting scary.

Edit: Confirmed cases in France have jumped from 18 to 38, Sweden from 5 to 7.

I've changed the headline now to current numbers.

[President Johnson]

I think we're now at 46 total reported cases in Germany, 32 of them in the last two days. A that rate we're gonna overtake the United States very soon.

Probably because we're testing much more than the United States. California has over 8,000 people monitored at this point and not sufficient testing.

Aside from that, I have more faith in the federal government to handle this than the Trump Administration is performing so far. Hopefully state and local governments in the US can be more effective.

[President Johnson]

Germany is now up to 66 cases, most still in NRW. Even a number of kids are affected.

Bad enough is that one of the patients connected with the "Göppingen cluster" actually lives in my county. According to local press, the 28 year old man is a CDU member who recently gathered at a local party meeting. As a result, all four candidates running for the CDU's nomination for the state legislature in the 2021 state election are under quarantine at home for precaution. County officials have expanded their testing capabilities, even though no further confirmed cases so far. The infected CDU member is reported to be in good shape, as a are most other patients (the 47 year old man's condiction from NRW is still critical, but he's more stable than in recent days).

When we went to Aldi super market yesterday, there were some empty shelves, especially frozen food and noodles. I think it's an exaggeration, but my wife insisted to buy some additional stuff for now. So practically, we should stay home for about a week now.

[President Johnson]

There now have been 117 confirmed infections in Germany, making it the country with the sixth-most official cases worldwide, after China, South Korea, Italy, Iran, and Japan. Most infections have appeared in Northrhine-Westphalia, with 66 cases so far.

In an on oddly historically shaped parttern there have been confirmed infections in all founding states of the old West Germany. Completely unaffected so far are Saarland (which didn't join West Germany until 1957), West Berlin (which officially didn't join the Federal Republic until 1990), and the entirety of former East Germany.

Only a matter of time until every state is affected. Professor Drosten, a leading specialist who helped inventing the test, thinks that 60-70% of the German population will be infected over the next one or two years. The only question, according to him, is whether specific medicine can be developed in the meantime.

I still hope the pandemic fades away as we move into spring and then summer, as happened with SARS in 2003 and the annual flu season.

[President Johnson]

Germany has now reached 150 confirmed infections, 86 of them in the state of North Rhine-Westphalia. The high number of infections in NRW is largely attributed to the Rhenish Carnival season.

Yesterday, we also had our first case in Berlin: A 22-year-old man who contracted the disease after being visited by his parents from NRW.

Still unaffected are Brandenburg, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt, Thuringia, and Saarland.

Fortunately, nobody has died yet of the Coronavirus.


Italy update: 1,696 infections, 34 deaths.

Plus, Robert Koch Institute, a German government agency, has changed its threatlevel rating for the general public from "low to median" to "median".

[President Johnson]

Germany at 482 now, but still zero deaths. I hope it stays that way, but unlikely.

However, a poll was done in Germany and a majority is either not concerned at all (39%) or just somewhat (37%). 17% are concerned and 6% very concerned (Source).

[President Johnson]

Another big hike in Germany, now at 670. Still zero deaths.

Worldwide over 100,000 now, with 42,000 infected at this point (55,000 have fully recovered). However, only yesterday, it was 39,000 current cases.

Two additionele cases in neighbouring municipalities other than the one i already talked about. My region in Belgium is clearly the most affected by corona

Stay safe, avoid crowds where possible and wash hands. Especially before you touch your face, which people do quite often without noticing.

My employer has now cancelled some business trips for a number of people (fortunately I'm not required to travel); one woman from our finance department has been sent home to work from there for two weeks, after a colleague of her husband has been tested positive. The spouse has not been tested because he wasn't in close contact with the said person.

[President Johnson]

Yesterday was first case of coronavirus in Moscow, man from Italy. Today another 4 and 1 in Nizhniy Novgorod; seems like epidemic finally has arrived to our backwoods.

Also 2 cases in Ukraine and 6 in Belorussia

I don't believe Russian numbers are remotely accurate. They share a long border with China and have close economic ties.

[President Johnson]

Germany: 782 confirmed infections
- NRW: 377
- Baden-Württemberg: 170
- Bavaria: 117

My prediction was we're going to hit 1,000 by Monday.

France is always close to Germany, now at 653.

[President Johnson]

Germany has surpassed 1,000 this afternoon.

We have now 1,028 confirmed infections. 484 in NRW, 214 in Bavaria, and 182 in Baden-Württemberg.

Federal health minister Jens Spahn has recommended that any public event with more 1,000 attendees should be cancelled. This would among other things include soccer games, and Bundesliga officials are planning to discuss this soon. A possible compromise is to continue the current soccer season, but to ban all spectators from the stadiums.

I was expecting this for Monday.

Also, first German citizen, a 60 year old man, has died in Egypt.

[President Johnson]

Italy reporting a pretty striking 133 new deaths

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1236704475554988033

Holy sh*t. This thing is completely out of control now. If warm weather doesn't change the direction we're headed in very soon, this could be another Spanish flu.

[President Johnson]

Germany is now urging to outright cancel all events with over 1,000 people and reducing other gatherings with a few hundred participants. When asked at a press conference how long this should be going on, Health Minister Spahn said "we're definitely talking about several months, not several weeks".

Furthermore, Professor Drosten, a leading specialist, has cited an American study that the effect of spring and summer weather is smaller than flu. This means, warmer temperatures will probably just barely help.

[President Johnson]

What's happening in Spain? Their numbers are exploding and have surpassed Germany and are close France now.

[President Johnson]

How bad do you think the coming recession due to this virus will be?

Entirely depends how fast we're getting this under control. Containment and development of vaccine/medicine.

[President Johnson]

Breaking: France closes all schools, kindergarden and universities

Germany is not taking these steps yet on a national basis, but individual municipalities such as Halle have done so.

[President Johnson]

Wow, according to Tagesschau, Italy now over 21,000 cases. For the first time in weeks, there are also more current than recovered cases (75k versus 72k).

Many German cities have now prohibited any kind of events. Nightclubs, operas, cinemas etc. are closed per order by local authorities. Visits in hospitals and senior's homes are restricted as well. Restaurants remain open so far.

[President Johnson]

Wow, according to Tagesschau, Italy now over 21,000 cases. For the first time in weeks, there are also more current than recovered cases (75k versus 72k).

Many German cities have now prohibited any kind of events. Nightclubs, operas, cinemas etc. are closed per order by local authorities. Visits in hospitals and senior's homes are restricted as well. Restaurants remain open so far.

Yes, Italy has now 21,157 cases (17,750 active). However, the number of recovered patients is just a bit higher than the number of active cases: 74,262 vs 74,219.

Not all sources give the exact number at the same time. I'm looking at this map from German Tagesschau.

[President Johnson]

Austria will close all restuarants starting Tuesday. Furthermore, all gatherings over five people are banned. Parliament is set to pass some sort of emergency bill.

Officials of the German football league are now talking about postphoning the UEFA Euro Cup this year. Potentially to be delayed to 2021. Something like this has never happened since World War II.

[President Johnson]

Germany partially closes borders now. This doesn't apply for commuting and delivery of goods.

The RKI (German CDC) has now declared California, Washington state and New York as risk zones, along with Italy, parts of Spain, Austria and Switzerland.

Furthermore, the number of deaths in Spain is up to 288, with over 7,700 cases.

[President Johnson]

Germany shuts Borders with France, Switzerland and Austria (with exceptions to local commuters). Effective tomorrow at 8:00. Borders to Denmark, PL, CZ already closed by those Governments.

5,426 (+827 Today) infected, 11 Dead.
Here in Stuttgart 60 Infected. Lockdown except for Restaurants. Place where I am Interning has asked us to suspend work from Monday.

According to StZ, the number in Stuttgart is now at 150

Starting tomorrow, I won't get to work via S-Bahn any longer and take the car. Probably work from home 1-2 days a week, unless we're sent home by managament. Which could happen any time at this point.

[President Johnson]

Another factor with regard to Italy: In Southern European countries, family bounds are much closer than in Middle or Northern Europe as well as parts of the US. Very often, two or three generations are living in the same house, everybody is meeting everybody. As half-Greek, I know that from my own family, and in contrast to Germany.

Taking this into account, it explains in parts why the Italian situation is so dramatic.