International COVID-19 Megathread

[urutzizu]

A Chinese woman from Wuhan took medication to hide certain undetermined virus symptoms from French Border Police, and has since been touring Paris and Lyon, eating in restaurants and boasting about it on social media. The Chinese embassy in Paris wants to talk to her.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3047334/chinese-told-comply-airport-coronavirus-checks-after-woman

[urutzizu]

A Chinese woman from Wuhan took medication to hide certain undetermined virus symptoms from French Border Police, and has since been touring Paris and Lyon, eating in restaurants and boasting about it on social media. The Chinese embassy in Paris wants to talk to her.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3047334/chinese-told-comply-airport-coronavirus-checks-after-woman

At least two cases of the virus now confirmed in France and more are expected. If connected, she is in a ton of trouble.
https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2020/01/24/coronavirus-deux-premiers-cas-confirmes-en-france-a-bordeaux-et-paris_6027158_3244.html

[urutzizu]

First Case in Germany. Man in the Munich Suburb of Starnberg. He has been quarantined. This was likely only a matter of time. Am not to concerned though, the Virus does not seem to spread well in European conditions (Climate/Pop. Density/Differences in Hygiene esp. regarding Food); after the 3 Cases in France there have been no further reports of Infections despite numerous tests, although of course the Virus could spread dormant. Being Asian in Germany, my excitement for even more Virus jokes everytime I sneeze Tomorrow can barely be contained.

https://www.br.de/nachrichten/bayern/erster-coronavirus-fall-in-deutschland-bestaetigt-in-starnberg,Rop54ft

[urutzizu]

Four Cases in Germany now. All employees of Webasto, a German company with Operations in China. The Spreader was a Chinese Colleague from visiting from Shanghai (with parents from Wuhan), who at the time did not feel sick or carry any symptoms and has only shown them since returning. This is pretty concerning because it means that multiple human-to-human transmissions during the Incubation stage in a European environment have taken place, and contradicts my hypothesis from earlier.

Heat screening and other detection methods at Airports are therefore pretty useless. The only way to actually be able to stop the Virus it seems, would be to suspend Travel with China completely, although that is an unlikely and disproportionate step. Hong Kong and Taiwan have gone in that Direction, though not completely.

https://www.br.de/nachrichten/bayern/coronavirus-drei-weitere-infizierte-in-bayern,Roto17s

[urutzizu]

Countries that have banned travel from China:



Almost all EU/Schengen Countries have suspended the Issuance of Visas to Chinese nationals. Visas already granted remain valid. France seems to continue to Issue Visas. The German Minister for Health Jens Spahn has called for a more broad travel ban. The Chinese Government condemns the travel restrictions. It says its screening measures on departure are adequate. Europe now has 26 confirmed cases, 12 of them in Germany. The latter all but two connected to the aforementioned Webasto case. The other two are German evacuees from Wuhan who were flown out and quarantined three days ago.

Also some pretty ugly xenophobic sentiments seem have spread in Europe and elsewhere, some of which I experienced myself. Misinformation Online, especially that notorious video of the Chinese woman eating bat soup (which was actually from Palau three years ago) seems to have become an ample excuse to slag off Chinese and Asian people and their cultures as disgusting, backward and this as some sort of deserved ("devine") punishment. Pretty sad to see even (quite respectable) newspapers swoop this low.

 
"Yellow Alert"                                 Source: Der Spiegel

Particularly charming and very effective..

https://twitter.com/OnkelNasch/status/1222756056633368577?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7C...

[urutzizu]

Why is the German newspaper headline in English?

Germans dont have the same sense of insecurity about the English language as the French tend to. Also its a newspaper with a readership that is leaning towards upper-middle class Intelligentsia. And the "Pun" would not work very well on German.

Its not the first Time Der Spiegel have done this sort of thing either:


Source: Der Spiegel

A cheap attempt to boost sales, which is sad, because Der Spiegel is actually considered one of the Hallmarks of German Journalism, and the cover story itself, a piece about how globalisation made the Coronavirus inevitable, was reflective of that.

[urutzizu]

Something like 70'000 commuters cross from Lombardy into Switzerland into every day, as of yet no special measures being put in to place on the border.

It's, um, a little bit scary.

And it is yet another frustrating Example of the European Idea, EU, Euro, and in this Case Schengen becoming completely dysfunctional, because countries act unilaterally in their own short-term interest, instead of in concert, protecting their common interest. How is Schengen supposed to deal with an outbreak like this, when all countries agree to stop Issuing Schengen Visas to China, except France (led by a certain so-called pro-European), who refuse, because Chinese Investment comes first. How is Italy banning flights to China supposed to achieve anything, when anyone can just get on a flight to Munich and then take the train to Italy. You only need one weak link and the whole thing just breaks down, and now the Virus is in Europe and is practically impossible to contain. It almost, but only almost, makes me think that the Brexiteers may have inadvertently had a point after all.

[urutzizu]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I think to recall that they're worn in Asia so frequently because in Asian culture it is considered extra-rude or something if you're not super-careful about not infecting other people with illnesses.

It is, but the vast majority of people do not really wear them because of of anything related to diseases at all - rather because of bad air quality and Yellow dust.

When we went to Aldi super market yesterday, there were some empty shelves, especially frozen food and noodles.

I noticed nothing of the like in Stuttgart itself yet, though I have a feeling the Virus has somewhat been contained due to schools being shut during the holidays. I expect a slew of new cases from Monday when Children come back from their Vacation.

[urutzizu]

On that notes it's possible that the slower spread in Hong Kong and Singapore relative to the colder climates in Europe, North America or Japan and Korea is a positive sign. Although, it's also likely the case that both countries having experienced the SARS crisis just means they were better prepared for something like this.

I am not quite convinced that that Is the main reasons though. It should be noted that almost all E.Asian countries acted very fast and very decisively in the initial phase to contain the Virus. Shutting Borders, banning public gatherings, public heath emergencies, Heat scanners in Metros, Suspending Schools, complete disruptions to public life almost...I mean these things happened almost Immediately in Taiwan, Macau/HK, Vietnam, Singapore, Malaysia, Mongolia, SG etc. when cases were in low double digits, and the numbers of infected seem to have more or less been contained there now. The two exceptions were South Korea and Japan, who acted far later and were affected far more harshly (South Korea has Improved, but Japans handling is still a complete disaster. They do not even have a central disease control agency).
France, Germany, Spain are in 200+, Italy in its Thousands and nothing of the like has happened. Life is pretty much going on as usual. I literally saw the first person with a face mask today. Even in Italy the measures are rather limited Geographically, and only happening very recently (perhaps why it was able to fester undetected for so long). I wonder If this is perhaps partially down to a cultural difference with Europe, with (South)East Asia being far more weary of Pandemics, perhaps a side effect of living in more densely populated areas, or a greater acceptance of social control or something like that.
I do agree that the SARS Aftershock definitely contributed too, and (the lack of anything like it) is probably one reason why the Japanese have acted so incompetently. What I genuinely dont understand is South Koreas screw-up. They had this kind of thing before, like the MERS outbreak, and their culture is actually quite in tune with this kind of fear of out of control Pandemics (take Movies like "The Flu" as example of this). Just Blaming the Cult doesn't quite cut it for me here.

[urutzizu]

China reported 40 new cases of the coronavirus on Monday, its lowest number since its health commission began publishing nationwide data on 20 January.

Of the 40 cases, 36 were from locked-off Wuhan - while the remaining four were cases imported from Iran. China is quarantining all arrivals from affected regions. So we have gone full circle. China has essentially beat the Virus.

And it shows, one can either take "authoritarian" proactive prevention measures quickly, at a relatively low cost (China outside Wuhan, Singapore, Taiwan, Russia...), or wait and be forced to take far more drastic steps at containment later at a massive cost, both economic and human (Wuhan, Italy, Iran...). Europe seems adamant to take the latter path.

[urutzizu]

Germany shuts Borders with France, Switzerland and Austria (with exceptions to local commuters). Effective tomorrow at 8:00. Borders to Denmark, PL, CZ already closed by those Governments.

5,426 (+827 Today) infected, 11 Dead.
Here in Stuttgart 60 Infected. Lockdown except for Restaurants. Place where I am Interning has asked us to suspend work from Monday.

[urutzizu]

Federal government will determine upon a national lockdown this weekend. Officials say the decision depends on behavior this weekend. I'm hopeful we can avoid a mandatory lockdown because unlike today and yesterday, there is no sunshine expected for the next few days. It's supposed to rain tomorrow.

FWIW my mothers Company was advised from the state Government telling them to print Employment-confirmation letters for their employees today, so that when police stop them they can prove that they are on the way to work. That is probably about quite the best indication that in BW lockdown is imminent. I think the question is only whether all State Governments and the Federal Government will agree this weekend, or whether only the hardest hit like Bravaria, BW, NRW and Hamburg do it.

I mean, ultimately, as you already pointed out, people brought this on themselves. Hardly anyone is doing social distancing in Germany, parks and playgrounds are full, the Police have broken up hundreds of "Corona-partys", not only is nobody wearing masks, people who do so are publicly shamed, politicians have been forced threaten us with curfews if we do not start actually doing what we have been told to, and even where there is a lockdown, some 50000 people (including 8000 just yesterday) in Italy have been charged with Violating the lockdown, the french minster of the interior has been forced calling people "imbeciles" for going out .....

I cant help, but wonder whether we ever had headlines like this coming out of Japan, South Korea et al.? Maybe the fact that the Spread appears to be expanding uncontrollably in Europe has actually less to do with Contact tracing, Travel bans, lockdowns, heath care system preparedness, climate or anything like this, than we thought. Maybe we are just too self-centered and individualistic. The Idea with the lockdown, I think, is less just to keep people Indoors, but maybe it will actually make people aware of the gravity of the situation.

[urutzizu]

Can't help but think all this stuff about East Asians being more inclined towards submission and collectivism than Caucasians is a bit racist tbh.

You have a point there. Europeans in Spain/Italy/France have "submitted" to far more authoritarian measures than people in most asian countries (save China) ever did. But the thing is, such measures were not necessary in those countries because prior measures and advice put in place regarding social distancing were almost uniformly respected, while in Europe/America they were/are not. Whether that comes from prior experiences with pandemics or a different mindset in general is up to debate, but denying there haven't been very substantial differences in behavior between Asians and Westerners here, for reasons of political correctness especially, is a bit ridiculous.

[urutzizu]

In Germany 4000+ new infections today, the last two days it had calmed down to 2500 per day. For that reason the RKI (our CDC) was optimistic and said that the measures of the Government were showing effect. Now, I for one think that may have had something to do that it was weekend, and trends from almost all countries show numbers calming on weekends, and the fact that weather was atrocious. But the Government apparently took it anyway and held back from issuing a Nationwide lockdown. Bravaria decided to lock down anyway and got into a big argument with the other State Premiers (Especially NRWs Armin Laschet) because of it. We will see who is right, but three Quarters of Germans agree with extending the lockdown nationwide, and the Lockdown in Italy does, after two seem to start showing signs of working. With the UK locking down too, we are the only major European country not to do so.

On that cultural thing - I'm gonna Swisspost, but a funny one that has been picked up here is that within Switzerland it has been the "Latin" cantons that have been far harder hit than the German ones. Ticino obviously, but the French speaking cantons have had virtually half of the cases nationwide despite only 25% of the population. Slight parallels with the worst hit countries in Europe generally being the romance speaking southern European ones.

I think a another factor might be that there are far more Cross-border commuters (per capita in the affected cantons and overall) from France and Italy into Switzerland than from Germany, and the fact that the French and Italian departments/regions that border Switzerland are some of the hardest hit in the entire country while Baden-Württemberg is not really to the same extent.

[urutzizu]

Turns out that whole Story about the Masks intended for Berlin being stolen by the US was false - so unequivocally, we are the Bad guys after all. The Berlin Government jumped to false conclusions too fast. SAD!

https://www.n-tv.de/panorama/USA-haben-Schutzmasken-doch-nicht-abgefangen-article21693615.html

[urutzizu]

The thing is, what is proposed here are not Eurobonds, at least not in the way that the Term has always been understood.

What Eurobonds are understood as, ever since they were proposed during the Euro crisis, is effectively a communitization of (mainly Southern European) Debt as the responsibility of all Euro countries. This is something that, as DavidB said in another thread, is DOA in the Netherlands, Germany and Austria, and something even quite progressive and pro-EU voters here like myself are suspicious about.

But these proposed "Corona-Bonds" are something else entirely. They are, yes, common Bonds guaranteed by all Euro countries, but they would not affect Debt currently held by Italy (which would remain their exclusive responsibility) nor would they affect any future debts incurred by the spending of their national governments (which would also remain their responsibility). The money borrowed would only cover healing the damage caused to Europe (esp. IT and ES) through this Virus, something those Countries would not be able to do, because Bonds guaranteed solely by their Governments would have unsustainable BBB or so interest rates, which they cannot afford. And, crucially, the Money would not be spent by their Governments, but by the EU commission, which is of course led by a conservative German woman. Germans will not trust Italian politicans, but we should be able to trust one of our own, surely? Lastly, one of the main reasons why many people here were unhappy about Eurobonds back in the day, was because it was seen as bailing out Countries, who (or rather who's politicians) were at least partially responsible for the mess they created. A view that probably had at least a degree of legitimacy. No one, I think, would suggest that this is the case this time round.    

It is really sad in my opinion that the whole debate degenerated into "AHHH EUROBONDS", with almost no differentiation or substantive discussion about the actual proposal at hand. I don't blame you for calling them Eurobonds, because that is the way that this discussion has rather unwittingly been framed, but I think it has been a big strategic misstep by Conte, Sanchez et. al. that they did not make the distinction clear from the beginning.

But now it's done, and if we have really learned nothing here and stick our heads in the sand, then we can probably say good bye to the EU in all but name, and watch Italy and Spain become de facto client states of China and Russia. Something it would be hard to blame them for, to be honest.

[urutzizu]

Through direct negotiations with Xi, Merkel has secured access to large amounts of Medical equipment from China (which controls 80% of the global supply). A couple of days ago, there were reports that China was conditioning Medical Supplies to France on the Installation of Huawei in the 5G network (for the record, China denies this). Is it likely that China demanded the same here? Well, we don't know that, but considering their modus operandi, it does seem unlikely that they would not have demanded at least *something* in return. And Germany has still not taken a decision on Huawei.

There was a pretty interesting piece in the Atlantic about this, but basically while Trumps response to the Virus itself has been terrible, his foreign policy for the last 3 Years - trying to decouple from China - has to an extent been vindicated.

[urutzizu]

The Chinese economic numbers seem to indicate that, at least there, a significantly faster recovery than expected is taking place, raising hopes that the same will go for Europe as we start opening up.

China: March, compared to the same month last year
Exports: -6.6% (Expectations by Economists per Reuters: At least -13%)
Imports: -0.9% (Expected: -9.5%)

China has (unlike Europe and NA) held off from implementing a massive government stimulus, or a wage subsidy system, so Domestic Consumption kept the pace regardless. And of course China was able to restart the economy significantly faster than Europe, not to mention the US, will. And Exports will be hit in April harder as those Economies tank.

Speaking of Stimulus, the Italian Government has refused the 39 Billion Euro Loans package that was negotiated. Five Stars apparently threatened to blow up the Coalition otherwise. Complete Idiots. Why would they say no to a 39 billion€ credit, with low interest and no conditions after working for low interest credits with no conditions for weeks? And doing it without even Consulting their Allies Sanchez and Macron? Populism has Italy by the balls and the entire country will suffer because of it.

[urutzizu]

Back on the german study of 0.37% fatality rate, this one https://www.land.nrw/sites/default/files/asset/document/zwischenergebnis_covid19_case_study_gangelt_0.pdf

they report in the first analysis the results from 500 people (not a statistical sample) of this 14% has the antibodies and 2% has the coronavirus, so in raw number 70 and 10, after they report a fatality rate of 0.37% so 0.296 deaths but this is very strange or there is a death in the sample or there is not
someones can clear this point?

I don't quite understand what they did here either but it seems like they calculated the CFR using the infection rates projected onto the entire population of Gangelt (bezogen auf die Gesamtzahl der Infizierten in der Gemeinde Gangelt beträgt mit den vorläufigen Daten aus dieser Studie ca. 0,37 %) and used the deaths from there and not from the Sample.

So: 15% Infektionen × 12.529 = 1.879 × 0,37% = 6,9
7 Deaths in Gangelt.

There has been alot of other Criticisms of the Study in Germany by Virologists as well, so I would take it with a pinch of salt:
https://www.deutschlandfunk.de/covid-19-experten-kritik-an-studie-zur-corona-epidemie-in.2850.de.html?drn:news_id=1120107

[urutzizu]

Apparently Taiwan's response was so quick because the deputy head of their CDC, Luo Yi-jun, is a regular at what is basically Taiwanese 4chan, where people were freaking out about COVID-19 before almost anyone else even heard about it:

Deputy Director Luo Yi-jun stumbled upon the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission’s 30 December notices on the notorious online forum PTT in the early hours of 31 December.

Here is the original PTT post, with screenshots from the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission, but also the warnings that it might be a kind of SARS by Dr Li Wenliang and Dr Liu Wen in their WeChat groups. https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/gossiping/M.1577730263.A.177.html

The rest of the world may have not heard their warnings, but Li Wenliang and Liu Wen seem to have played a role in saving many Taiwanese lives.

Full story in Chinese: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/firstnews/202004150342.aspx?

[urutzizu]

Merkel made a speech in the Bundestag today, where she in pretty clear terms admonished the State Premiers who were opening up too fast. She is hardly known for her combative approach, but that speech, even if he wasn't mentioned by name, was basically a broadside against Armin Laschet. He is the Premier of the State of NRW, as well as the front-runner to succeed Merkel, and has continuously been the most outspoken opponent of harsher measures against the Virus and in favour of reopening the economy faster than others. Traditionally he is a close ally of Merkel, while Markus Söder, Premier of Bravaria, and the one with the most Hardline approach is a rival, and the two openly had an argument about it, but nonetheless this was a pretty clear attack against Laschet.

This could have a potentially big Impact on the race to succeed Merkel. Laschet has come under fire a lot lately, not just from Merkel, for a approach percieved by many as reckless, while Söder has become very popular (but he has not been seen as interested in running). However business groups have a very strong influence in the CDU, and his approach will help him curry favour with them (most likely the main reason for it). He is also running on a ticket with Health Minister Spahn, whose popularity has been boosted throughout this Crisis, so that is also likely to help him.

In terms of Legacy, Merkels scientific (she is one herself, you see) and, apparently successful, approach has more or less repaired her popularity and her stateswomen-like Image, beyond anything she lost during the Refugee Crisis. She still has a year to go, but if everything stays as is, she will, justified or not, likely be viewed in German history very positively.

In English: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/23/german-states-lifting-lockdowns-too-quickly-warns-merkel-coronavirus

[urutzizu]

For instance, it was also reported today that Laschet's NRW had formed an alliance with Baden-Württemberg and Lower Saxony to push for further lifting of restrictions, especially with regards to restaurants.

Yes, although I don't think that is correct in regards to Baden-Württemberg. Down here Kretschmann has definitely been among the more restrictive premiers. He and Söder met today to form a "Gemeinschaft der Umsichtigen" (Alliance of the Careful).

https://mobile.twitter.com/Markus_Soeder/status/1253305143996669952

[urutzizu]

"With the US, Germany & EU should pursue forceful decoupling from China. It would be expensive but not as expensive as the alternative. Corona recession presents a unique opportunity to correct the wrong path".

Mathias Döpfner, CEO of Axelspringer (largest Media Conglomerate in Europe) with the most radical statement so far within mainstream German centre-right circles.


Source: Welt am Sonntag + Abaca

[urutzizu]

EU Commission GDP forecast 2020:
Eurozone: -7,7%

Greece -9.7%
Italy -9.5%
Spain -9.4%
France -8.2%
Ireland -7.9%
Lithuania -7.9%
Cyprus-7.4%
Belgium -7.2%
Latvia -7%
Slovenia -7%
Estonia -6.9%
Portugal -6.8%
Netherlands -6.8%
Slovakia -6.7%
Germany -6.5%
Finland -6.3%
Malta -5.8%
Austria -5.5%
Luxembourg -5.4%

Non-Euro:
Croatia -9.1%
United Kingdom -8.3%
Bulgaria -7.2%
Hungary -7%
Sweden -6.1%
Romania -6%
Denmark -5.9%
Poland -4.3%

They also predict a fast recovery in 2021. Mostly in line with IMF forecast and expectations, except Germany (better than expected) and UK (worse than expected), which is likely because in those two Virus spread is being contained and Lockdowns are being lifted faster and slower than expected respectively. I would still be cautious about those two projections. Sad for Greece which handled the Virus better than most.

Did Germany actually report zero covid deaths yesterday?  That’s what worldometers is showing.

I think Worldometers is wrong. RKI (German CDC) reported 947 new infections and 165 deaths.

[urutzizu]

The fact that the UK population continues to give best marks to Boris despite that is all the more remarkable.

Opinion Poll from Odoxa-Dentsu for LeFigaro on attitudes in Europe:

"Is the Government is up to the task" (Yes/No) in %:

UK: 63/35
Germany: 60/38
Italy: 50/49
Fransa: 34/66
Spain: 32/67

Did your Government: (Yes in %)
(1) take Measures that were in accordance with the Gravity of the situation?
(2) take the right steps at the right time? (44%?!?)
(3) tell the people the truth?
(4) properly equip hospitals/medical staff?
(5) show they knew where they were going?
(6) provide clarity?



I suppose despite the Death Toll the UK did avoid the kind of footage of doctors having to triage ventilators and overcrowded hospitals, that would create the perception of a failure of the state, even as a unnoticed epidemic took place in care homes. The UK also has a different media environment to other European Countries. But I still think Labour needs to ask themselves why their message is seemingly not cutting through, despite the clear failings of the Government.