UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[EastAnglianLefty]

In 2017, the Tories were hoping to win the votes of people who hadn't voted in 2015 but voted Leave in 2016 and were disappointed. Anecdotally, a lot of them turned out in 2019 whereas the people who voted Labout with qualms in 2017 did not in 2019.

[Blair]

One of the post election report found that the Tories managed to drag out 2 million 'new' voters in 2019 who didn't vote in 2017- and a big chunk of these were habitual non voters. I remember reading that one of the Leave campaign successes was turning out people who hadn't voted for years ... so this would certainly suggest that it was only Boris who would be able to turn these people out again.

Almost half of these previously abstaining Conservative voters had voted Leave
in 2016; most of the rest were habitual non-voters. They had a balanced mix of
ages and social grades, and were spread right across the nations and regions, with
greater concentrations in the West Midlands, Yorkshire and Humberside and the
South West, and fewer in Scotland, London and Wales. Only a small fraction had
voted Labour at previous elections since 2010.

In 2017, the Tories were hoping to win the votes of people who hadn't voted in 2015 but voted Leave in 2016 and were disappointed. Anecdotally, a lot of them turned out in 2019 whereas the people who voted Labout with qualms in 2017 did not in 2019.

This is true; as I said in my previous post a lot of 2019 seats Labour lost had seen chunks of their majority get skimmed off in 2017; but a combination of factors in that election saved them.

If you look at the lavish briefings in early days of the 2017 GE about the seats the Tories were targetting (West Brom East, Bolsover) most of these actually ended up flipping in 2017; with the added caveat that in 2017 there was terror that the marginals in remain seats would flip as well.

I mean if you want a demostration in the variation we've got seats that had a +400 vote majority for Labour in 2015 which saw 10Ks majority in 2019, while seats with a Labour majority of 20K in 2015 now have Tory majorities of 3-4K

[afleitch]

They also don't have a majority for this in the House of Lords (or in the commons, or even their own MPs)

The opinion polls on this have support at around 55% for certain more heinous murders like children or police officers.

Which maybe isn't a guarantee of a win in any referendum. When the fact most judges, lawyers and even senior policemen are strongly opposed to its return would register far more strongly than now.

Anyway - and this really can't be emphasised enough - even most *Tory* MPs don't support it these days; and back when most did *and* they had a bigger majority than now, it was still well beaten in the summer of 1983 (widely seen as the last realistic chance to reverse abolition) Add to that the fact that it has *always* been a conscience issue with a free parliamentary vote, and that a strongly anti HoC could hardly be expected to OK a referendum on the subject, and the dooming from some on this in the last 24 hours looks all the sillier.

What this *does* show, IMO, is that some in the Tories realise they might soon need something to replace Brexit as the glue that basically holds their 40% coalition together. This isn't it, though.

Attempting to reintroduce the death penalty would probably collapse the government. I think they areaware of the mass mobilisation against it.

[CumbrianLefty]

Add to that, it would split the Tories almost literally down the middle - whilst opposition MPs would be almost unanimously against it save for some NI unionists.

This isn't a re-run of Brexit in that respect either.

[Blair]

An open question; how true is it that by voting for the deal Labour are giving up any chance to either A.) avoid the blame for Brexit B.) criticise the outcomes of the deal?

I've seen quite a lot of people over the last few days say that Labour need to abstain as otherwise they lose the right to criticise the deal but my reading of opposition politics for the last 25+ years is that the opposition is virtually never held responsible for a failure of the Government

[CumbrianLefty]

Though there are claims It Will Be Different This Time because of the continued salience of Brexit.

Not terribly convinced, personally.

[Coldstream]

An open question; how true is it that by voting for the deal Labour are giving up any chance to either A.) avoid the blame for Brexit B.) criticise the outcomes of the deal?

I've seen quite a lot of people over the last few days say that Labour need to abstain as otherwise they lose the right to criticise the deal but my reading of opposition politics for the last 25+ years is that the opposition is virtually never held responsible for a failure of the Government

I think they just mean that whenever someone criticises an aspect of Brexit Michael Gove will retort “yes but you voted for it”. Which I suppose makes it a bit harder to criticise but it hardly makes it impossible.

Though whether that will have much of an impact on voters is debatable. I doubt it, I think whilst the country is still split pretty evenly about whether it’s a good idea - or indeed whether to rejoin - I think for the moment most believe it’s settled for the next few years and there’s no appetite to revisit it.

That will most likely change eventually (outside of politics nerds, most normal people didn’t really care about the EU either way pre-2016 or at least pre-2013) but when it does it’s unlikely that this vote will have much of an impact.

[CumbrianLefty]

If it all really does go t**s up from here on, its possible that "you *also* voted for this deal that has turned out to be crap!" might not be the winning line for the Tories some of them currently think

[GenerationTerrorist]

I'm one of the people who is going to be doing the Admin and Data Analysis for the local Covid Vaccination Programme, starting on Monday. Got a secondment from my current job with the local NHS.

I'm happy to do it, and was delighted that my application was approved, as it will be good to be part of something so (hopefully!) one-off as a moment in history. Yet I have some massive fears about the ability of this Government to not cock everything up in terms of distributing and prioritising the Vaccine.

Lions led by Donkeys.

[Silent Hunter]

I trust the NHS will do the best it can to roll this out effectively; they've given a lot in all of this and I hope they get their just reward after.

Speaking of rewards, I think we'll be getting the honours list coming out shortly.

[Coldstream]

If it all really does go t**s up from here on, its possible that "you *also* voted for this deal that has turned out to be crap!" might not be the winning line for the Tories some of them currently think

To be fair that’s not really the way it would go, no matter how bad it gets the Tories will never admit Brexit is to blame, they’ve just gone too far now.

It would be a case of Labour pointing out when something has gone wrong, the Tories denying anything has gone wrong, and ignoring discussing what has gone wrong by saying Labour have flip flopped because they are now saying Brexit is bad despite voting for it. Just as in 2018/19 they dismissed all criticism of Brexit by saying all Labour MP’s were elected on a platform in 2017 that committed to respecting the result. Which probably won’t work (people will care less about a vote than they did an election etc) but the Tories will try it.

[Silent Hunter]

The Honours List has come out.

[brucejoel99]

The Honours List has come out.

Lewis Hamilton's knighthood is definitely a deserved one.

[parochial boy]

It does seem like the UK has somewhat put itself on the Swiss route of ad hoc and single issue based agreements with the EU as it stumbles towards an eventual relation. In which case, don't kid yourselves that it is going to be anything other than a top of the agenda issue for the next 30 years. At least.

But in that respect, who said what exactly in 1992 has long since ceased to be relevant - and I suspect the eventual relevance of who voted which way on this deal will be the same. The future fights about financial services, free movement or matching future EU corporation tax rules are going to be fights by themselves. Not fights in reference to whether or not Labour voted in favour of the deal or not.

Also, I really don't get the idea of an honours list? Like, the same applies to the presidential medal of honor or the Légion d'honneur, but still

[Blair]

The Honours List has come out.

Lewis Hamilton's knighthood is definitely a deserved one.

He's been knighted in the overseas section irrc because he's based in Monocco for tax purposes.

He's hardly the first British sportsmen to have done this however.

[CumbrianLefty]

I trust the NHS will do the best it can to roll this out effectively; they've given a lot in all of this and I hope they get their just reward after.

Wouldn't hold my breath personally, but you never know......

[Frodo]

While our minds are on Brexit:

Spain and UK strike deal to avoid hard border in Gibraltar after Brexit
Gibraltar joins Schengen passport-free area with Spain as its sponsor.

[brucejoel99]

While our minds are on Brexit:

Spain and UK strike deal to avoid hard border in Gibraltar after Brexit
Gibraltar joins Schengen passport-free area with Spain as its sponsor.

How's that for taking back control: the EU checking the passports of Brits moving from one part of the UK to another? At least said passports will now be blue, I suppose. Take that, Spain: blue passports!

[Silent Hunter]

Gibraltar isn't part of the UK. Or indeed the Common Travel Area. Passport checks were already required and the territory voted overwhelmingly Remain.

[NewYorkExpress]

Boris Johnson's father is seeking French citizenship.

Stanley Johnson, the father of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, has said that he intends to obtain French citizenship -- his comments coming just hours before the UK's final transition out of the European Union.

Johnson, a former Member of the European Parliament, told French radio station RTL he "will always be European" in an interview aired on Thursday.

"It's not a question of becoming French. If I understood correctly, I am French," he told RTL in French, highlighting his family's link with the country.

"My mother was born in France, her mother was entirely French as was her grandfather. So for me it's a question of reclaiming what I already have," he said of the decision to become a French citizen. "Therefore, I am very happy."

Britain officially leaves the EU's single market and customs union when the transition period ends at 11 p.m. GMT (6 p.m. ET) on New Year's Eve.

The post-Brexit trade deal between the EU and the UK comes into force at that time, after the two sides agreed to a last-minute agreement. But most Britons will start 2021 by losing their ability to freely work and travel around the 27-nation bloc.

[brucejoel99]

Boris Johnson's father is seeking French citizenship.

snip

I somehow don't think that the French authorities are gonna be as tolerant of his views that COVID-19 restrictions don't apply to him.

[CumbrianLefty]

Johnson says that 2021 is going to be a terrific year all round.

Which would perhaps be less noteworthy if he hadn't said exactly the same about 2020 a year ago.

[EastAnglianLefty]

The closure of all London schools has been announced, after a hamfisted attempt to do it on a borough-by-borough basis which didn't appear to be backed by any coherent methodology. Gavin Williamson continues to hold the coveted title of most conspicuously incompetent minister in the government.

[brucejoel99]

The closure of all London schools has been announced, after a hamfisted attempt to do it on a borough-by-borough basis which didn't appear to be backed by any coherent methodology. Gavin Williamson continues to hold the coveted title of most conspicuously incompetent minister in the government.

Didn't even make it to Jan. 2nd before the 1st U-turn of the year happened.

[CumbrianLefty]

Johnson still insisting schools in much of the country have to reopen this week, though.