UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[Coldstream]

An open question; how true is it that by voting for the deal Labour are giving up any chance to either A.) avoid the blame for Brexit B.) criticise the outcomes of the deal?

I've seen quite a lot of people over the last few days say that Labour need to abstain as otherwise they lose the right to criticise the deal but my reading of opposition politics for the last 25+ years is that the opposition is virtually never held responsible for a failure of the Government

I think they just mean that whenever someone criticises an aspect of Brexit Michael Gove will retort “yes but you voted for it”. Which I suppose makes it a bit harder to criticise but it hardly makes it impossible.

Though whether that will have much of an impact on voters is debatable. I doubt it, I think whilst the country is still split pretty evenly about whether it’s a good idea - or indeed whether to rejoin - I think for the moment most believe it’s settled for the next few years and there’s no appetite to revisit it.

That will most likely change eventually (outside of politics nerds, most normal people didn’t really care about the EU either way pre-2016 or at least pre-2013) but when it does it’s unlikely that this vote will have much of an impact.

[Coldstream]

If it all really does go t**s up from here on, its possible that "you *also* voted for this deal that has turned out to be crap!" might not be the winning line for the Tories some of them currently think

To be fair that’s not really the way it would go, no matter how bad it gets the Tories will never admit Brexit is to blame, they’ve just gone too far now.

It would be a case of Labour pointing out when something has gone wrong, the Tories denying anything has gone wrong, and ignoring discussing what has gone wrong by saying Labour have flip flopped because they are now saying Brexit is bad despite voting for it. Just as in 2018/19 they dismissed all criticism of Brexit by saying all Labour MP’s were elected on a platform in 2017 that committed to respecting the result. Which probably won’t work (people will care less about a vote than they did an election etc) but the Tories will try it.

[Coldstream]

Nigel Farage has resigned as Reform UK leader. Not particularly surprising given the party’s failure to make hay over the government’s COVID policy, but I suspect he may have been pushed out by/come to a gentleman’s agreement with Richard Tice, who will now assume the leadership.

I’m sure he’ll be back as soon as the bar tab needs topping up.

I met Tice at an event in 2019. He’s smart and charismatic, and not someone to be written off immediately like say Paul Nuttall or Gerard Batten. But I doubt that he’s someone able to make a huge impact. I can’t see there being many people who’d prefer him to Boris Johnson when countering in the risk of letting Labour in through the middle as happened across the North in 2019.

[Coldstream]

Nigel Farage has resigned as Reform UK leader. Not particularly surprising given the party’s failure to make hay over the government’s COVID policy, but I suspect he may have been pushed out by/come to a gentleman’s agreement with Richard Tice, who will now assume the leadership.

I’m sure he’ll be back as soon as the bar tab needs topping up.

I met Tice at an event in 2019. He’s smart and charismatic, and not someone to be written off immediately like say Paul Nuttall or Gerard Batten. But I doubt that he’s someone able to make a huge impact. I can’t see there being many people who’d prefer him to Boris Johnson when countering in the risk of letting Labour in through the middle as happened across the North in 2019.

Well that assumes a few things, not least that Johnson is still going to be there at the next GE.

At present, the openings for a "populist right" outfit a la peak UKIP are indeed limited - and that may well have played a part in Farage's latest decision. This may not always be so, however.

I see no reason, besides wishful thinking, to believe he won’t be. The Tories haven’t forgotten that before he became leader they were fourth in the national polls and facing oblivion. And Johnson has largely kept his personal ratings intact since then. They simply don’t have anyone more electable than him.

[Coldstream]

In other news:

https://twitter.com/GreenJennyJones/status/1369781660401758209?s=20

Jenny Jones was head of “Green Leaves” the Green Brexit campaign which I always thought was the best named organisation in British politics.

[Coldstream]

Wragg is significant because he’s a diehard Brexiteer, respected amongst the grassroots. Though he’s been a rebel on covid from the start so he’s not exactly a loyalist.

[Coldstream]

The remarkable thing is just how much No.10 and the Cabinet devoted to 'waiting for the Gray report'; it does have shades of previous internal reports where MPs can essentially lie about its contents and claim that it cleared the PM of any wrongdoing.

But there's a chance that it will be done in a way to prevent that, or that further incidents emerge in the upcoming days or even after the report.

Of course the banter outcome is for inspector knacker to get involved and make this drag on for months and months.  

Wragg is significant because he’s a diehard Brexiteer, respected amongst the grassroots. Though he’s been a rebel on covid from the start so he’s not exactly a loyalist.

I would be tempted to describe him as a wet, but it's more so in style- the list of those MPs calling for his ouster is still in the predictable category but we know letters will be going in anonymously.

Wragg is very far from a wet, he was campaigning with Peter Bone and Nigel Farage during the referendum when Johnson was shunning them.

[Coldstream]

Khan says FU Dick*

*It’s an older reference but it checks out.

Personally I’d go with “Sadiq gets Dick out”.

[Coldstream]

Time to see what, if any, principles Tory MP’s have. Though the fact remains that there’s almost no one in the Tory Party who could take over and be popular with the public, which is the best point in his favour Johnson has.

[Coldstream]

On the doorstep, there doesn’t seem to be much support for the Tories - certainly seems to be a massive swing from last year when there was a lot of “well it’s not like anyone else would do better” going around. It doesn’t seem to be swinging directly to Labour (at least not most of it) but I think the Tories could be in for a beating this May just from their voters staying home. At the very least the turnout differentials won’t be as stark as they usually are.

[Coldstream]

There does seem to have been a shift in the last few days, it’s gone from Johnson looking safe to looking very shaky. I guess it’ll depend what happens in the locals, but short of a big victory for him he looks to be in trouble.

[Coldstream]

Plaid Cymru MP Jonathan Edwards has had the whip restored after a long period as an independent. It was originally withdrawn after he was cautioned by the police in a substantiated incident of domestic abuse against his wife (divorce proceedings are ongoing):
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-62507593

She’s understandably quite angry about this, and has denounced the party. It’s all quite ugly. I still think we have to find some way to amend the recall petition system, so those with serious character deficits can be held to account - without creating a situation where marginal MPs are triggered into by-elections on the whim of the parties.

From my understanding, after internal disciplinary procedures decided to readmit him to the party Plaid were worried that they’d be sued by not restoring the whip to him - which if true, suggests they need to seriously improve their constitution. Other party’s in Parliament have denied the whip to MPs that hold membership - Corbyn being the most notable recently.