UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[afleitch]

"Scottish Labour is considering backing a second independence referendum in a dramatic reversal of policy by the party leader, Richard Leonard.

Party sources have told the Guardian that Leonard will raise that possibility at Labour’s Scottish executive committee on Saturday, where it could also discuss demands for it to split formally from the UK Labour party."

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/jan/09/scottish-labour-could-back-independence-referendum-indyref2

This surely can't have majority support in what remains of Scottish Labour, can it?

The party is probably still split, but I would say there is a loud faction who's identity is Unionist first, Labour second who won't be too enthusiastic.

[afleitch]

With no leverage in Westminster anymore, the DUP had to go back to Stormont.

Not having to power share with Cath... I mean Sinn Fein and pulling the strings in a direct rule government suited them to a tee. It's what they openly want. Then they lost big on the gays and the women and so really have nothing else to do but go crawling back to Stormont.

[afleitch]

"Scottish Labour is considering backing a second independence referendum in a dramatic reversal of policy by the party leader, Richard Leonard.

Party sources have told the Guardian that Leonard will raise that possibility at Labour’s Scottish executive committee on Saturday, where it could also discuss demands for it to split formally from the UK Labour party."

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/jan/09/scottish-labour-could-back-independence-referendum-indyref2

This surely can't have majority support in what remains of Scottish Labour, can it?

The party is probably still split, but I would say there is a loud faction who's identity is Unionist first, Labour second who won't be too enthusiastic.

Sounds like political suicide to me

Like what do they have to gain by becoming an SNP clone? If anything I imagine you have more left wing voters in Scotland than pro independance voters.

If they become pro independance they may as well dissolve and merge with the SNP because I dont see how they'd be relevant in the slightest

They'd probably lose whatever votes they still have to the SNP (left-wingers first) and Tories (unionists first)

The SNP is a broad tent centrist party with a heterogenous voter coalition, if Labour becomes neutral on independence they can hope to get a lot of the left wingers that have defected to the SNP back.

The SNP strikes me as pretty left-wing already, not sure how much further to the left Labour could go to break SNP dominance.

The SNP is rhetorically centre-left, but far less so in practice where it mainly delivers welfare to the middle class and serves business interests. It's a populist catch-all party fairly similar to Fianna Fail in Ireland and there is plenty of space to the left of SNP. They have also hollowed out local government and centralized excessively and that's an area where Labour could attack them.

I think you could have argued that point under Salmond but not so much under Sturgeon. And of course Labour before that in Scotland were notoriously technocratic. Indeed, Scottish Labour since 2015 have found themselves arguing for the same petty bourgeois local causes as the Tories including opposing tax rises, parking charges and a local income tax (rather than based on property value.)

[afleitch]

Support is at 65% amongst under 50's. It is a demographic bomb in Scotland as much as it is in Northern Ireland.

[afleitch]

Though support does appear to be lower with the youngest voters, compared to people in their 30s and 40s.

It's only a tad lower at 62%, with a small sample size and runs contrary to the other polls in December, so I don't think there's any reason to be concerned

[afleitch]

Ashcroft had support at 51% in 2014 amongst 16-24 year olds. While it's a different cohort 62% is an advance. Ispos MORI had it at 72%, again the strongest age group as did YouGov's previous poll. Other pollsters have a wide 16-34 sample which as expected show the strongest support.

[afleitch]

I cried.

[afleitch]

https://mobile.twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1223381423194824704

The EU Commission building. They left a light on.

I'm gone. Absolutely in tears.

[afleitch]

It's time to start the rejoin campaign today.

At what point and under what circumstances is the British body politic allowed to start focusing on other issues?

England's relationship with Europe has been it's sole body politic since Caesar landed at Deal.

[afleitch]

Worth noting that Scotland's largest union, UNISON have backed a second independence referendum. As a union man, there's a lot of movement at grassroots to begin disaffiliation from Labour. It's logistically difficult but I expect a few more moves like this.

[afleitch]

Yes. I think there's a real and genuine problem here with early release but most importantly, the strategy of deradicalisaton for those in prison.

[afleitch]

Indy at 50% and 52% in new polls from Panelbase and Survation. SNP at over 50% in polling for Holyood in both.

Terrible news for Ed Miliband.

[afleitch]

Not just "contacting" him, but continuing to pester him after he was politely told "no thanks".

Yes.

And that's the bigger issue; it's harrassment. Which is inexcusable.

[afleitch]

A month or so ago we were hearing lots of chatter about how, under the direction of D. Cummings, the entire structure of Whitehall was going to change, that departments, even big departments, were to be variously merged, abolished and created. This is not that. This is just mere politics.

From my civil service bunker, it's coming.

[afleitch]

I think the government's response to immediate economic concerns were very thorough and unprecedented but as you say, the narrative has now shifted to the NHS frontline and earlier promises are now falling short so there's more pushback

[afleitch]

Horrific news for anyone. I hope he gets through this.

[afleitch]

Anyway, for fun the first post leadership poll from Opinium have the Tories on 55% to 29% for Labour.

[afleitch]

Does it matter in the slightest what the polls are saying now?

No. There is functionally no politics at present.

Though it is interesting to compare the reactions of different countries to their respective leaders at a time of crisis.

[afleitch]

What's with the armed forces sharing the stage at the daily briefing? They can fork right off with that.

[afleitch]

https://twitter.com/ldnyounglabour/status/1257728205022277632?s=21

C'mon, London Young Labour: let's not pretend that the unionists in Northern Ireland don't deserve an opinion on their country, & that you f**king middle class London students know a damn thing about Ireland. That you'd tear the wound right open again for your vision of what Ireland should be, regardless of what the peace process has already determined, is disgusting. Groups like you aren't only a blight on Labour; you're a blight on the left. I'll say it again: self-proclaimed socialists who proudly champion things that'd undoubtedly lead to violence are disgusting.

To be fair, a large chunk of NI Unionists actively want that wound re-opened. Indeed it's the heart of everything they do to try and hobble the legislative process.

[afleitch]

My gut feeling is that the generally obedient British public will tear the Tories to pieces when business resumes. Unfortunately for the public, they just gave them a five year mandate.

[afleitch]

SNP don't count, then?

Even the SNP is better than Labour or Johnson.

Recommend

[afleitch]

On that note;

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52795997?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/scotland/scotland_politics&link_location=live-reporting-story

A total of 82% of respondents said Ms Sturgeon had handled the outbreak "fairly" or "very" well, to 8% "fairly" or "very" badly, giving her a net approval rating of +74. The Scottish government's score was +67.

Meanwhile 30% of those who took part said the prime minister was handling the outbreak "fairly" or "very" well, compared to 55% "fairly" or "very" badly - a net approval rating of -25. The UK government's overall rating was -17.

[afleitch]

Yes, very good reminder of what Johann Lamont did there - if you are ultra-cynical you can see her as a proto-Tom Watson, but far more successful in her destructive aims than he ever was.

(though I still wonder if knowing *just* what would happen to SLab might have made her reconsider)

Her interview wasn't that pivotal to the long term trends: SLab had got a pasting in 2011, three years before and had a huge pro-indy base that simply migrated to the SNP after September 2014 and will probably stay there until Labour changes it's position.

In short; Scotland has a Labour Party; it's just not Labour.

[afleitch]

I think we can look back at Corbyn and accept what a f-ing waste of time all that was.