UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[Filuwaúrdjan]

lol lmao lol

[Oryxslayer]

My unpopular take is that this isn’t necessarily a bad thing for the Conservatives. Boris can limp on but he is damaged. A few more months of cost of living, poor polling and by-election defeats can lead to 30 MPs switching sides and getting rid of him. If I was wanting to be the next Conservative leader I would want him to last a while longer so he absorbs a lot of the public hate and then the new leader can take over as the economy gets better (or stays bad, which at worst makes no difference from getting rid of him now). A new leader in 2023 would then give them a bit of time to define themselves and move on from Boris. The counter argument is that the longer Boris stays the more damage he does to the Conservative brand (just look at how long the damage from Blair, Brown, Miliband and Corbyn’s leadership lasted in some form or other), and his ability to make poor decisions will damage whoever succeeds him.

The issue of the Conservative Brand I think is the bigger one here, and its not one that is likely to change before the next election, whenever it happens. Today the public wants Boris to Go - including enough of the Conservative section to scare the PM. They just saw the party effectively close ranks to defend him when given the opportunity to toss Boris aside - never mind that a deeper examination is less stark. Unless the next few days see a reversal of the outcome through MP action,  then the public will begin to transfer their opinion of Boris to the Conservative party (for they hold the blame) as a whole for the medium term, which endangers their electoral fortunes at the next poll. Once Boris does go the new leader can't just now say that it's over, they will have to spend energy to internally clean up his mess, which will keep public perceptions of the party overall as poor.

[LAB-LIB]

My unpopular take is that this isn’t necessarily a bad thing for the Conservatives. Boris can limp on but he is damaged. A few more months of cost of living, poor polling and by-election defeats can lead to 30 MPs switching sides and getting rid of him. If I was wanting to be the next Conservative leader I would want him to last a while longer so he absorbs a lot of the public hate and then the new leader can take over as the economy gets better (or stays bad, which at worst makes no difference from getting rid of him now). A new leader in 2023 would then give them a bit of time to define themselves and move on from Boris. The counter argument is that the longer Boris stays the more damage he does to the Conservative brand (just look at how long the damage from Blair, Brown, Miliband and Corbyn’s leadership lasted in some form or other), and his ability to make poor decisions will damage whoever succeeds him.

The flip side is that 58.8% of this party stuck by Johnson through all of this and almost any likely leadership contender will be seen as having been a Johnson supporter whether they actually did or not.

[Blair]

The funny thing is that supportive MPs have said on Twitter and on interviews it’s an improvement on his performance in 2019 with MPs- which ofc doesn’t tell you how much the parliamentary party has changed since 2019, especially as 10 anti Boris MPs were kicked out.

I don’t understand why they can’t just say it’s bad and say ‘we’re listening and want to fix this’. They’re in this problem because it seems he’s like Stalin in 1941 where bad news or honesty leads to you getting taken outside.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Another VONC........to be tabled by Ed Davey in the Commons.

[Torrain]

Another VONC........to be tabled by Ed Davey in the Commons.

I think the expectation is that Labour are going to push to use the time to hold a vote disavowing Johnson’s new ministerial code changes instead. I think the Official Opposition get priority, or at least hold most of the cards on Opposition Day, they’re weird day and my Erskine May isn’t good enough to be sure.

Tbh, if true, Labour might just be onto something. A vote on the new ministerial code isn’t exciting, but there’s now enough votes, between the opposition and Tory rebels, to theoretically defeat the Government and give Johnson a serious bloody nose. Obviously that depends on how the motion is worded, and how p**sed off the rebels are today, but could be interesting.

A VONC in the Commons will fail, and while it will make vulnerable Tories look bad (which is good for the Lib Dems), it doesn’t challenge the government itself, and pushes the Conservatives to rally together, which doesn’t help their cause either.

[Joe Republic]

A Commons VONC seems like a silly strategy to this outsider not-an-expert-whatsoever here.  About two thirds of the Commons doesn't want Boris as PM, but that doesn't mean that those 148 rebels will want to trigger a GE now, that they know will be an epic disaster.

And as Torrain said above, helping to reunite the Tories only a day after their deep fissure was put on global display puts a neat little bandage over the 'Tories In Disarray' headlines for now.

[Torrain]

It looks like some of the deals the PM & Cabinet used to survive yesterday are leaking out:
https://mobile.twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1534095295197356033

If Seely feels confident discussing this publicly, then it’s hardly going to be a one-off incident. Expect a lot of Home County potholes are about to get mysteriously filled.

[YL]

Another VONC........to be tabled by Ed Davey in the Commons.

I think the expectation is that Labour are going to push to use the time to hold a vote disavowing Johnson’s new ministerial code changes instead. I think the Official Opposition get priority, or at least hold most of the cards on Opposition Day, they’re weird day and my Erskine May isn’t good enough to be sure.

Tbh, if true, Labour might just be onto something. A vote on the new ministerial code isn’t exciting, but there’s now enough votes, between the opposition and Tory rebels, to theoretically defeat the Government and give Johnson a serious bloody nose. Obviously that depends on how the motion is worded, and how p**sed off the rebels are today, but could be interesting.

A VONC in the Commons will fail, and while it will make vulnerable Tories look bad (which is good for the Lib Dems), it doesn’t challenge the government itself, and pushes the Conservatives to rally together, which doesn’t help their cause either.

Yes, I don't see much point in a Commons VONC now and I don't think the Lib Dems are actually in a position to force one.  If there were the odd MP who actually might resign the whip and vote against the Government in a VONC there might be a point, but I think that's unlikely.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Worth noting that Wakeford's defection probably did a lot to stall Tory moves against Johnson because of the feelings of betrayal it caused. It'd be mad for any Tory MPs to give up the whip when they've got Johnson reeling, because it'd just restore that dynamic.

On the other hand, provoking Johnson into suspending the whip from some of the rebels would probably make overthrowing him a lot easier.

[CumbrianLefty]

In reality any VONC in the Commons would be a ritual. I suppose it might have a bit of value in making vocally anti-Johnson Tory MPs feel somewhat uncomfortable.

But what Labour is reportedly planning has a non-negligible chance of actually getting results.

[Torrain]

Worth noting that Wakeford's defection probably did a lot to stall Tory moves against Johnson because of the feelings of betrayal it caused. It'd be mad for any Tory MPs to give up the whip when they've got Johnson reeling, because it'd just restore that dynamic.

On the other hand, provoking Johnson into suspending the whip from some of the rebels would probably make overthrowing him a lot easier.

100% this. The rebellion amongst 2019ers went dead silent after Wakeford left. Enough of them came out against Johnson this week that it’s clear they still opposed the PM, but they were clearly to spooked to go on at the time.

Johnson panicking, and trying to kick Roger Gale, William Wragg or Tobias Ellwood out of the party would likely be far more damaging than 2-3 backbenchers taking the Lib Dem whip.

 That said, if he let Anne Marie Morris back into the party this week, even knowing she would immediately send her 1922 letter in, I’m skeptical he’s about to try and purge the backbenchers.

[MillennialModerate]

That said: BoJo surviving is a forgone conclusion

Welp, that settles it: RIP BoJo.

This idea that I’m always wrong is silliness. Almost every call I’ve made on here that doesn’t involve Georgia or Nevada has been accurate

Anyway. It always confused by how someone could win a vote like that and it being declared that it has “mortally wounded” them. The guy won. That’s it….

[Cassius]

Johnson receives congratulations from Zelensky’s office.

Should really change his surname to Ivanovich and run in the 2028 Ukrainian Presidential Election.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

That said: BoJo surviving is a forgone conclusion

Welp, that settles it: RIP BoJo.

This idea that I’m always wrong is silliness. Almost every call I’ve made on here that doesn’t involve Georgia or Nevada has been accurate

Anyway. It always confused by how someone could win a vote like that and it being declared that it has “mortally wounded” them. The guy won. That’s it….

Because 41% of your own parliamentary party blatantly against you isn't a good look.

[Torrain]

This idea that I’m always wrong is silliness. Almost every call I’ve made on here that doesn’t involve Georgia or Nevada has been accurate

Anyway. It always confused by how someone could win a vote like that and it being declared that it has “mortally wounded” them. The guy won. That’s it….

Because the government’s approach now looks like this:

The flames in the background are only mostly allegorical.

[EastAnglianLefty]

That said: BoJo surviving is a forgone conclusion

Welp, that settles it: RIP BoJo.

This idea that I’m always wrong is silliness. Almost every call I’ve made on here that doesn’t involve Georgia or Nevada has been accurate

Anyway. It always confused by how someone could win a vote like that and it being declared that it has “mortally wounded” them. The guy won. That’s it….

This is because you're always wrong.

[Torrain]

New spreadsheet for those interested in the likely shortlist of candidate for a ministerial resignation.
https://mobile.twitter.com/TomLarkinSky/status/1534170871446773761

[Sir Mohamed]

Don't think BoJo is going to last to New Year's Eve. If 40% of your own faction expresses no confidence, it gets very tough to continue governing and pretend nothing ever happened.

Aren't there special elections later this month with the Tories about to lose seats? I'm relatively certain likely losses here will give opponents from own ranks new ammunition. The dude is pretty much done.

[Torrain]

Aren't there special elections later this month with the Tories about to lose seats? I'm relatively certain likely losses here will give opponents from own ranks new ammunition. The dude is pretty much done.

Aye, two. One is a former Labour seat (and current polling puts them far ahead), and the other is tipped to go Liberal Democrat, abandoning the Tories for the first time in 99 years, since 1923.

More discussion here, in the rolling UK by-elections thread.
https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=435421.new#new

[LAB-LIB]

A not-so-small part of me almost wants Boris to hang on until the next general election so he can lose it, but I've learned the hard way that what seems like an unelectable politician can win.

[President Johnson]

A (no) confidence vote only within the governing party is kind of weird in my opinion. It should have taken place in the entire parliament, just as it is the case in other countries with a parliamentary system of government. Ergo, if 140 Tory MPs don't have confidence in Johnson plus the entire opposition, he no longer has the support from a majority of the legislative.

[Cassius]

A (no) confidence vote only within the governing party is kind of weird in my opinion. It should have taken place in the entire parliament, just as it is the case in other countries with a parliamentary system of government. Ergo, if 140 Tory MPs don't have confidence in Johnson plus the entire opposition, he no longer has the support from a majority of the legislative.

This was a VONC in his leadership of the Conservative party - had he lost he would have (presumably) remained PM until the party chose a new leader.

[Blair]

Yeah it’s not that strange to vote to have no confidence in his leadership but then vote to have confidence in the Government.

The funny thing is that no-one in the party actually seems happy about this situation.

[MABA 2020]

Well they've managed to manoeuvre themselves into the worst possible situation from all perspectives haven't they?

I don't think he'll make it another two years until the next election unfortunately or fortunately depending how you look at it.