UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero (user search)
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  UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero (search mode)
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Question: What should the title of this thread be
#1
BomaJority
 
#2
Tsar Boris Good Enough
 
#3
This Benighted Plot
 
#4
King Boris I
 
#5
The Right Honourable Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero
 
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Author Topic: UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero  (Read 283613 times)
Oryxslayer
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« on: February 03, 2020, 12:08:57 PM »
« edited: February 03, 2020, 02:56:41 PM by Oryxslayer »

Being a member of the EU is obviously voluntary, but there are other (often informal) mechanisms by which certain EU institutions have a habit of treating member states coercively, and that needs to change (either by weakening some of those institutions or by imparting more democratic legitimacy to the EU itself or both). Not that this made Brexit any less stupid of an idea.

There's truth to that. I've long preferred the EU having more democracy on top level, either by having an executive president elected in EU-wide popular election, or have the Parliament elect Presidents of the European Council and the European Commission (or the new office combining the two), without this being imposed by leaders of member countries.

I don't see coercive mechanisms as bad per se, though. I'm rather glad such mechanisms exists and can be used to prevent member states from undermining democratic institutions and the rule of law inside, as it's presently happening in my country. After all, when you join the EU, you are voluntarily subscribing to certain rules and common values, and it's only natural the EU institutions should have ways to ensure you don't break them.

I mean the Term "Democratic Deficit" was created specifically to describe the EU. It's well known that the majority of EU citizens want to improve  the accountability and accessibility of the EU and her institutions - it's a view that crosses the entire political spectrum. There are multiple sources of this problem: self-perpetuating and inflexible bureaucracy, entrenched interests, fears of what it may do to the nation-EU relationship, and quite a bit more. As the EU moves towards deeper integration, these problems will need to be addressed, since they will become more visible in peoples day-to-day lives.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1 on: June 06, 2020, 05:34:14 PM »

Three new polls tonight, all of which show a Tory lead in the region of 2/3 points. The tide has clearly shifted from a few weeks ago - will it shift any further?

I noticed this earlier as well. Is this just Cummings plus some new leader goodwill for Starmer, or is there something more going on? Either way, it would be funny if in a years time we are in another Blare situation where Labour is well ahead in the polls, but can't capitalize on those numbers for a several years.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #2 on: June 08, 2020, 12:00:52 PM »

RE Scotland: Another problem when it comes to challenging the SNP local dominance comes from the parties who are contesting it. A Tory surge would lead to an obvious unionist government, but a Tory surge would just be towards around 25% and nationalists around 46-48%, leaving them open to true 'coalition of chaos' attacks. If Labour surge then the SNp are going to dog the local party with the question of what govt they would prefer: a unionist coalition or a left-leaning SNP-Lab govt. There are no good answers, including silence and defection, when it comes to that question.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #3 on: June 17, 2020, 02:25:05 PM »

Well, because of the SNP sweeping Scotland nowadays, it is almost impossible for Labour to win a majority. Their vote is more efficient now than it was in say, 2015, but still not great.

Assuming the Lib Dems get say, 10% (so a bit down compared to 2019) and the SNP gets 4% (exactly the same as 2019); a popular vote tie leads to: Con 285, Lab 279, SNP 51, Lib 12.

For Labour to get an actual majority they need to be winning by at least 9 points nationally (44-35), which leads to Lab 323, Con 236, SNP 50, Lib 18; which should be a narrow majority if you account for the SDLP and the Sinn Fein abstaining.

To get an idea of how unlikely that would be, Boris Johnson would be losing his own seat in such an scenario and it would not even be that close (he'd lose by 11 points; 52-41)

Of course, you could also work assuming what I call "Spanish politics rules"; where basically anything that is not a Tory majority is an automatic Labour win, even if with a very unstable government; since no "minor party" (ie Lib Dems / SNP) will back the Tories. This is almost certainly true for the SNP, but less so for the Lib Dems I imagine.

If you think the Lib Dems would back Labour in the end, then it gets incredibly easy; Labour just needs to keep the Tories below 326 (in practice more like 310 because of the DUP and Sinn Fein abstaining). That can actually be done while losing the popular vote! A 2 point Tory win for instance (40-38) results in a parliament where Lab+SNP+Lib get 329 seats, which is a majority (269+51+9 respectively). Basically Labour just neeeds a 2017 redux.

If you think the Lib Dems would actually back the Tories, it gets a bit trickier but not by much; Labour just needs to lose by a bit less. A Tory win of 1 point does the trick (Lab 279 and SNP at 51). So basically Labour just needs to improve upon 2017 by a bit, but it does not even need to actually properly win.

This all assumes an even swing, but still should give an idea.

Even this math is a bit faulty cause a new boundary commission report will be adopted by the Tories before 2024 that reapportions a few seats if they end up keeping the 650 total. Therefore, it's best to adopt DaWN's view and expect that if Labour is seen as more credible than the Tories, they will enter govt in some capacity.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #4 on: June 19, 2020, 09:43:19 AM »

It isn't as if there is no space between 1987-2015 style domination of parliamentary representation or 'just one seat, you know, the one full of English students'.

 Labour can put on 20 points tomorrow by committing to a second referendum and lose only 5 in response. They know that. But they can't do it. They are completely inert and this easily goes back twenty years.


Scottish Labour isn't acting in a vacuum. The SNP, being a purely Scottish party have more room to maneuver in response to Scottish issues and demands, including the independence question. If Scottish Labour decides to back IndyRef2, national Labour is going to start having problems south of the border.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #5 on: June 20, 2020, 03:43:18 PM »

I get the feel that in certain sections of European society, there is no recognition of structural/institutional racism and poor historical inertia and apathy, and all the other things that are frequently discussed in American (and other postcolonial societies like Brazil, South Africa, and Canada, all of which also work in this example) because the construct of race is important to ones American identity. For America to imagine itself as a multiracial melting pot where you can be X-American, the race of X must be a thing. I get the feeling that there is a whole lot less of this identity in the European subconsciousness, so there is in turn less recognition of the implicit racist actions a society performs. Islamophobia and general distrust of the Middle East? Antisemitism? All actors in European political discourse recognize these two, and utilize/attack/ignore/tolerate/punish/skapegoat people who hold those views along with whatever else they so desire depending on the parties position.

All this is to say that there are groups who don't think these issues exist in their society, since nobody talks about it like in America. These people are therefore confused as to why BLM protests are occurring and are going after their society. This strain of thought exists within the Tories, who as a whole view integration as equivalent to economic mobility and market access. This view is of course reinforced by folks like Patel and Javid who are used as examples which prove the norm. So when stuff like Windrush occurs, certain sections of the Conservative party are legitimately confused and don't possess the skills to avoid making statements that come off as racist like this one.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #6 on: June 25, 2020, 09:25:03 AM »


Rebecca Long-Bailey sacked from the Shadow Cabinet for sharing a highly questionable interview from Maxine Peak, which claimed that the murder of George Flloyd was because the Israeli Secret Services had trained the police.

A new front in the forever war is open.

Of all the conspiracies to emerge from this era of uncertainty, this one is is almost the weirdest. For example, the 5G one is at least grounded in a faulty conclusion that both the virus and the 5G rollout occuring at the same time is more than a coincidence.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #7 on: June 25, 2020, 09:49:19 AM »

An unfortunate no-win scenario for Starmer - he obviously had no choice but to sack her, but it's going to reopen quite a lot of wounds. The last thing Labour needs right now is the left growing an even bigger victim complex.

Of course he did, don't be ridiculous. A dressing down and apology from RLB for her "carelessness" would have satisfied all but the headbangers (who are never going to vote Labour anyway)

Impossible to see any good coming from this.

Really?

You'd think after God knows how long of Labour failing to do anything to address a massive problem that a senior member of the Shadow Cabinet would be allowed to get away with sharing anti-semitic conspiracy theories? Making her say sorry and that she won't do it again would just reinforce the perception that the leadership doesn't give a sh!t about the issue and that nothing has changed except the name of the leader. It is an unfortunate situation no doubt, but Starmer functionally did not have a choice.

What, that Israel has trained US police forces?

It takes a big brain to ignore a history of american systematic racism and blame everything on an attache. It partially goes back to what I said a page or so ago; some people in European politics haven't ever had to confront casual, systematic, or silent racism as a political issue, so it therefore doesn't exist. But, it does.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #8 on: February 03, 2021, 07:43:26 PM »

Its a particular sort of feminism that is susceptible to TERFism.

(basically the lifestyle based "what matters above all is getting women into prominent positions and actual structural inequality be damned" type - one well represented in the UK's political/media class)

I try to avoid following this particular debate in which Cherry has found herself embroiled, but this characterisation is simply not accurate given that Cherry is clearly well within the left-wing mainstream of her party on every issue except the transgender one (and made her career as a lawyer working on sex crimes, hardly the path that a lawyer unconcerned with social issues would try to carve out, and one that has probably helped shape her position on this particular issue, for good or ill).

Sadly, being well ensconced in left wing circles and ideology is no inoculation against TERFy beliefs, at least not in the UK. I wouldn't be surprised if you're correct in your supposition about her work as a lawyer working sexual assault cases being the genesis of her anti-trans views; it's a depressingly common backstory.

My perspective as an outsider is that the the explicitly confrontational historical approach of the UK women's rights movement is what has made the island particularly TERF'y when compared against similar countries. The confrontational approach is arguably why those with a history of Feminist activism like Cherry might be the most likely to also view it as a binary struggle between men and women.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #9 on: May 10, 2021, 09:36:42 AM »

On the topic of boundaries....

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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #10 on: July 06, 2021, 12:29:18 AM »

Is keir starmer trying to copy Biden's soft protectionism with his Buy British plan ?. He's also using a lot of law and order rethoric.


UK is different from the US in that Labour presently supports increasing but also reforming policing. See Theresa May cutting the number of police officers and the reaction from the opposition.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #11 on: September 07, 2021, 07:52:39 AM »

^ I just bumped the thread for discussion.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #12 on: December 31, 2021, 08:47:44 PM »

Starmer had it right when he said Labour should be proud of Blair's government. If you have a Labour government for 13 years, you can do a lot of progressive stuff such as significantly reducing child poverty and introducing the minimum wage. Labour needs to remind people of the good stuff they did, this helps people believe in what they are offering for the future.

The minimum wage was introduced in that socialist paradise known as the United States before the Second World War. The fact that it took so long for it to be introduced in the United Kingdom says more about this country than it does about any of its parties or politicians.


Honest question here for someone who is always confused when this statistic is brought up: Why didn't Atlee's government implement one alongside all the other New Jerusalem and postwar programs?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #13 on: January 15, 2022, 09:19:21 PM »


Woah.

Worth remembering the 1997 vote was:

Labour: 43%
Conservative: 30%
Lib Dem: 17%

And that the 2019 election was largely the reverse (Con 43%, Lab 32%, LD 7%)

While Labour may possibly be at a high water mark right now (subject to a post-scandal correction, and a new PM’s honeymoon period), it’s incredible to think what a change of political fortune this polling represents.

Which of course is the big question mark that I as an outside observer have right now: When Johnson goes (he's gonna fall eventually, it's hard to survive long being underwater with your own base voters) and a successor cabinet comes in, will the situation return to respectable Tory leads, or will this be the turning point that Starmer needed to finally make his competent government pitch applicable and desirable? Its hard to imagine in the latter situation that the leads would remain this big, but it is imaginable that they persist and there becomes a "government in waiting" - Labour had poll leads for almost all of Major's five elected years as PM.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #14 on: January 25, 2022, 06:33:38 PM »


He, above all, knows that. Which makes it more funny.

It's a threat, saying that if BoJo goes then so does the government. To get to that point requires some weird conclusions, especially since once Boris gets tossed the Tories will let their term go on to the final day if Labour continues to lead the polls. 
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #15 on: January 25, 2022, 08:16:30 PM »

Christ, Jacob Rees-Mogg is going to be party leader at some point in the near-ish future, isn't he?  If anyone thinks that's a totally ridiculous notion, I direct your attention to the current one.

I wouldn't be surprised if whenever Labour forms a govt he gets put in the post at some point between elections, then quickly tossed aside after the party and the public get a good look at him.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #16 on: February 13, 2022, 10:23:55 AM »

I don't pretend to understand polling enough to explain why but this does show how much in-house effects (and various tweaks) can have a big role- on the old method it would have been a 10 point lead for Labour and would have generated a very different story!


Can Labour win with a 37-34 lead over the Conservatives? I know there's a huge difference between 3% and 4% with the SNP vote share (literally the difference between 2017 and 2019), but that doesn't necessarily mean those seats are going back to Labour.

The UK presently in effect has the Conservatives and Unionist parties on one side of the benches and Labour, the SNP, and maybe the Lib-Dems on the other. A 3% lead likely couldn't give Labour the seat plurality, but it likely would see power swing away from blue benches. Labour would need a bigger lead for Scotland to be ignorable and a minority or majority govt to be on the cards. It would also be a question if Labour and the SNP, despite both benefiting from agreement, could agree on even a C&S. 
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #17 on: March 21, 2022, 10:40:30 AM »
« Edited: March 21, 2022, 01:48:01 PM by Oryxslayer »


A local party winning on the exact opposite platform of what the parliamentary party stands for? I see they're doing their best to become a worthy replacement of Liberal Democrats.

I mean environmentalism is kinda going through another (There has been several in the 120+ or so years where it has been a clear issue) generation change - like all political movements have. The previous ideology focused preservation of accessible greenspace and wildlife, which meant halting pollution and development. The new or younger Greens/environmentalists care overwhelmingly about Climate Change and all the other environmentalist tenants go way in the back seat. Upzoning, increased urban construction, and public transport would potentially be opposed by the older generation for example, but the younger generation is gung ho all aboard. This is a visible divide in the German Greens, perhaps the most successful of the green parties.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #18 on: April 12, 2022, 01:45:56 PM »



Another snap poll, ignore the messenger, but the underlying data and pollster are fine.

Really feels like we're back to the first round of partygate takes: "wait for the local elections, and see what panicked swing-seat MPs do on the morning of May 6th".


Watching you guys from afar, it certainly appears like this will be the case. The Boris loyalists even have their excuses ready. However, unlike back then, the locals are only a month away and it will probably be a reversal of the past few year's local results, with Labour gaining a large net number even though the 2018 councils were already rather good. Its hard to imagine seeing things not somehow change if the Tories get smacked hard by the electorate.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #19 on: May 12, 2022, 11:26:47 AM »

Focus groups can always be overinterpreted but an interesting one

snip

Adding on to this:



There's increasing evidence now that the Lib-Dem recovery isn't a mirage, though we are probably taking about 20-30 constituencies, many which were lost by small margins in 2019, rather than over 50.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #20 on: May 16, 2022, 01:48:48 PM »

Even a coalition with the Lib Dems has virtually been ruled out- it would be a short government and a hard one, but it’s easy to see how a Labour minority Government relies on the SNP to abstain, while getting the smaller parties to support them.

We haven’t had a proper minority Government for a very long time but I think it would be easier than people think- at least for the first 12 months.

I expect the SNP would find a row to trigger an election eventually but who knows.

I mean the math of the situation is that Labour cannot win a majority outside of a landslide these days, which one expects would significantly empower the larger of the third/small parties. Right now it looks like Lab-Lib would get majority based on polls and the distribution of the vote  at the locals, but it seems like the Lib-Dems would have a lot more power over Labour when compared to the 2010 coalition. Lab could work with the SNP, but that is both unstable, has bigger asks, and could end up toxic in England. I know national coalitions are taboo to the Libs after said 2010 and 2015 elections, but given the leverage they hold, one wonders if a formal agreement wouldn't guarantee some of their bigger proposals.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #21 on: May 24, 2022, 02:48:27 PM »



Drip, drip, drip...
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #22 on: May 29, 2022, 08:35:15 PM »

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/unseen-text-messages-hint-at-carrie-johnsons-second-party-at-no-10-6rgthhcvl

It appears that there may be evidence for Carrie Johnson's flat party that was ignored by Gray and the Met. This was during June 2020, when indoor gatherings with 2+ individuals were banned.
will this get the tories to wake up and kick bojo out

It’s unlikely to be the tipping point, but it adds more fuel to the fire. Johnson has to lose the support of 54 MPs to face a confidence vote, and then lose the support of a further 130 MPs to actually be booted out. Meeting the first threshold is feasible - the second looks a lot harder.


This is why I don't understand the (probably Labour wish casting) theory that BoJo will call a snap election and force the Tories to support him. It would just be an act of vindictiveness, when his own personal power is seemingly more likely to remain intact through winning a confidence vote - even though many past PMs would have probably seen the writing on the wall even after winning said votes and resigned.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #23 on: May 30, 2022, 09:37:07 AM »

Another one - Elliot Colburn, who's seat is uber-marginal with the Lib Dems (under 650 votes), has put his letter in.

I have to wonder whether going home for constituency surgeries over the weekend may have provided the motivation to get him over the line...

Source: https://twitter.com/TomLarkinSky/status/1531270078674751489



Is there any leg to this rumor, or is ElectionMaps just talking out of his ass?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #24 on: May 31, 2022, 11:09:04 AM »

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