Israeli General Election (2nd of March, 2020): Madness

[Velasco]

I have a question concerning recent election results, partly related to a comment made yesterday on the Duverger's Law

Why do you think the Labor-Meretz-Gesher merger has proved to be a failure, in contrast to the Joint List success?

Remember the split of the Joint List in two depressed the Arab turnout in a previous election. On the contrary, the merger of the Zionist Left has produced exactly the opposite effect, worsening the already poor results of Labor-Gesher and the Democratic Camp

I think the different electoral behaviour of the Arab and Zionist Left constituencies is worthy of analysis

[Hnv1]

I have a question concerning recent election results, partly related to a comment made yesterday on the Duverger's Law

Why do you think the Labor-Meretz-Gesher merger has proved to be a failure, in contrast to the Joint List success?

Remember the split of the Joint List in two depressed the Arab turnout in a previous election. On the contrary, the merger of the Zionist Left has produced exactly the opposite effect, worsening the already poor results of Labor-Gesher and the Democratic Camp

I think the different electoral behaviour of the Arab and Zionist Left constituencies is worthy of analysis

JL was underperforming for decades due to low turnout, Arab turnout accounts for most of their gains and the rest is just squeezing all the other parties away from the Arabs.

LGM was uninspiring, old, and brought nothing new. Full of politicians who aren’t well liked. No one career about their socialist campaign

[Velasco]

Regarding the zionist left, where do you think the lost voters have gone? Blue & White, or just stayed home? I assume the Joint List has made very little inroads  in this consrituency, did Hadash or someone campaign to catch some votes there?

Will some vote transfer analysis be available in the following days?

[jaymichaud]

So which Labor/Meretz MKs lost their seats?

[BP🌹]

I see chaos as a victory too.

I guess I just don't understand why a weak, balkanized, conflict-ridden, and marginally theocratic Jewish state that tramples the rights of minorities can possibly ever be a good thing for the Arabs you claim to care so deeply about. By framing "Israel" entirely within a Jewish nationalist framework, as though the large minority of Arab Israelis were merely marginal to the state, you are literally doing the same thing as right wing zealots who refuse to recognise the integral Arab connection to the state.

It'll get worse before it gets better.

You're right. I'm part of the diaspora, and I don't have anything to lose, unlike those who are still in Palestine. I probably am more focused on tearing Israel down than lifting Palestinians up.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I have a question concerning recent election results, partly related to a comment made yesterday on the Duverger's Law

Why do you think the Labor-Meretz-Gesher merger has proved to be a failure, in contrast to the Joint List success?

Not demographically distinct from B&W therefore much more vulnerable to tactical considerations in a highly polarised environment. Also no serious ideological/policy differences large enough (in that environment; in a different environment things would be different) to mark a clear distinction either. You can see the same process at work on the other side, with Yamina.

But in general we would expect alliances of parties to poll below what those parties might individually, no matter the environment. That is what usually happens. That this is not the case with the Joint List is clearly at least in part a mirroring of the same tactical pressures that are also bloating the Likud and B&W totals.

[Oryxslayer]

I have a question concerning recent election results, partly related to a comment made yesterday on the Duverger's Law

Why do you think the Labor-Meretz-Gesher merger has proved to be a failure, in contrast to the Joint List success?

Not demographically distinct from B&W therefore much more vulnerable to tactical considerations in a highly polarised environment. Also no serious ideological/policy differences large enough (in that environment; in a different environment things would be different) to mark a clear distinction either. You can see the same process at work on the other side, with Yamina.

But in general we would expect alliances of parties to poll below what those parties might individually, no matter the environment. That is what usually happens. That this is not the case with the Joint List is clearly at least in part a mirroring of the same tactical pressures that are also bloating the Likud and B&W totals.

Let's also not forget the Arab angle of this - Meretz used to have Arab appeal on it's own. When it was close to the threshold, it could pull voters from the Joint List parties out of fear. Now the LGM ticket was far above the threshold, and the Joint List was running a charismatic campaign. Meretz siding with the joint ticket also made it a ticket very dominated by Zionist groups, which when compared to the ascendant Joint List...

[Hnv1]

Final turnout 71.33%

[America Needs R'hllor]

Regarding the zionist left, where do you think the lost voters have gone? Blue & White, or just stayed home? I assume the Joint List has made very little inroads  in this consrituency, did Hadash or someone campaign to catch some votes there?

Will some vote transfer analysis be available in the following days?

I actually saw a graph that checked many of the polling places and analyzed the movements. Looked like most Meretz voters remained committed and went out to vote (more than half of the united list's mandates are from Meretz voters, which includes yours truly). Some moved to KL, and the amount moving to the JL seemed too small to notice, at least according to this analysis (which might be too partial or just wrong fwiw). Meanwhile, a bunch of Labour voters actually moved to Likud, another large chunk to KL, and some stayed home. Most still voted LGM, but their share in the list is actually smaller than the Democratic Camp folk.

I'll actually translate here what I sent to my friend, my conclusions from that chart:

1. Likud rose mostly from new voters turning out and Otzma voters, but also from B&W, Lieberman and Labour-Gesher voters (looks like Orly and Peretz did manage to get some periphery soft-right voters, and those moved back, because it's sure as hell not the old Ashkenazim).
2. Meretz voters are much more committed to change and to the left than Labour-Gesher voters.
3. Some Labour-Gesher and B&W voters didn't turn out, I'll not post here what I said about them because it's inappropriate
4. If Bibi's right-annexationist-religious-escape from jail government is actually prevented, we can confidently say that Arab voters turning out saved democracy, and it's time that the center-left stops ignoring them as partners in this country.

So which Labor/Meretz MKs lost their seats?

Two great legislators from Labour, sadly. Omer Bar Lev and Revital Swid. Also the socialist Ilan Gilon from Meretz, whom our hnv really dislikes (I like him personally).

[DL]

Does the Israeli labour movement (i.e. the Histadrut) still have an organic link to the Labour Party and does it endorse Labor and encourage all union members to vote that way. I think a pretty significant chunk of Israelis belong to a union so wouldn't that give them a lot of votes or have their ties to labour withered? 

[Hnv1]

Does the Israeli labour movement (i.e. the Histadrut) still have an organic link to the Labour Party and does it endorse Labor and encourage all union members to vote that way. I think a pretty significant chunk of Israelis belong to a union so wouldn't that give them a lot of votes or have their ties to labour withered? 

The chairman of the histadrut officially has a spot in the Labour high committee and so on, but since the fall of Labour and the move of nissenkorn to B&W the relationship is kinda over

[danny]

Why is no one talking about the fact The Jewish Home went from 12 seats to 1 in just five years?

Because it's really 6, Yamina is a combination of Jewish Home, National Union which were part of those 12, and Bennet and Shaked's new party, who were running JH at the time.

[Zinneke]

Why is no one talking about the fact The Jewish Home went from 12 seats to 1 in just five years?

Because it's really 6, Yamina is a combination of Jewish Home, National Union which were part of those 12, and Bennet and Shaked's new party, who were running JH at the time.

At this point, is there any ideological difference between Yamina and Likud?  Is it solely separate because Bennet and Netenyahu hate each other?

[America Needs R'hllor]

Why is no one talking about the fact The Jewish Home went from 12 seats to 1 in just five years?

Because it's really 6, Yamina is a combination of Jewish Home, National Union which were part of those 12, and Bennet and Shaked's new party, who were running JH at the time.

At this point, is there any ideological difference between Yamina and Likud?  Is it solely separate because Bennet and Netenyahu hate each other?

Partially- Shaked and Bennet would be in Likud if Netanyahu didn't dislike them (at least Shaked). But Yamina is a necessary party because it represents a very specific constituency- religious zionists. These people always had their own party, and while it could change, it won't change for now.

[Estrella]

Why is no one talking about the fact The Jewish Home went from 12 seats to 1 in just five years?

Because it's really 6, Yamina is a combination of Jewish Home, National Union which were part of those 12, and Bennet and Shaked's new party, who were running JH at the time.

At this point, is there any ideological difference between Yamina and Likud?  Is it solely separate because Bennet and Netenyahu hate each other?

Partially- Shaked and Bennet would be in Likud if Netanyahu didn't dislike them (at least Shaked). But Yamina is a necessary party because it represents a very specific constituency- religious zionists. These people always had their own party, and while it could change, it won't change for now.

This is probably a very complicated question, but what is the reason there are (and have been in the past) so many constantly splitting/merging religious zionist parties?

[RodPresident]

Why is no one talking about the fact The Jewish Home went from 12 seats to 1 in just five years?

Because it's really 6, Yamina is a combination of Jewish Home, National Union which were part of those 12, and Bennet and Shaked's new party, who were running JH at the time.

At this point, is there any ideological difference between Yamina and Likud?  Is it solely separate because Bennet and Netenyahu hate each other?

Partially- Shaked and Bennet would be in Likud if Netanyahu didn't dislike them (at least Shaked). But Yamina is a necessary party because it represents a very specific constituency- religious zionists. These people always had their own party, and while it could change, it won't change for now.

Which is the difference between religious zionists and haredi? Wouldn't they better served by UTJ or Shas?

[Walmart_shopper]

Why is no one talking about the fact The Jewish Home went from 12 seats to 1 in just five years?

Because it's really 6, Yamina is a combination of Jewish Home, National Union which were part of those 12, and Bennet and Shaked's new party, who were running JH at the time.

At this point, is there any ideological difference between Yamina and Likud?  Is it solely separate because Bennet and Netenyahu hate each other?

Partially- Shaked and Bennet would be in Likud if Netanyahu didn't dislike them (at least Shaked). But Yamina is a necessary party because it represents a very specific constituency- religious zionists. These people always had their own party, and while it could change, it won't change for now.

This is probably a very complicated question, but what is the reason there are (and have been in the past) so many constantly splitting/merging religious zionist parties?

Religious Zionism, if you can believe it, actually used to be fairly left-wing and peacenik. The movement has obvuously radicalized and it is still trying to figure out what it is and how it relates to the world around it. Bennet's vision for the movement is more liberal and modern and less theocratic than the National Union, for example. In many ways religious Zionism is actually being torn in half by Israeli secularization. One half is more open, less dogmatic and is mich more comfortable in the Likud while the other half is becoming almost Haredi ("Hardal" is the term that refers to Haredi Judaism in practice and religious Zionism in concept), embracing separatism and radicalism in religious and political matters. Bennet tried to capitalize on that split by becoming the leader of the more modern half. That clearly hasn't gone well. So I would say the fractiousness of religiius Zionism is just growing pains, but I don't see any sign of growth at all.

[Boobs]

Why is no one talking about the fact The Jewish Home went from 12 seats to 1 in just five years?

Because it's really 6, Yamina is a combination of Jewish Home, National Union which were part of those 12, and Bennet and Shaked's new party, who were running JH at the time.

At this point, is there any ideological difference between Yamina and Likud?  Is it solely separate because Bennet and Netenyahu hate each other?

Partially- Shaked and Bennet would be in Likud if Netanyahu didn't dislike them (at least Shaked). But Yamina is a necessary party because it represents a very specific constituency- religious zionists. These people always had their own party, and while it could change, it won't change for now.

This is probably a very complicated question, but what is the reason there are (and have been in the past) so many constantly splitting/merging religious zionist parties?

Religious Zionism, if you can believe it, actually used to be fairly left-wing and peacenik.

Yeah - funnily enough the other party this election that can claim at least part of the mantle of religious Zionism is Meretz, through its de-facto absorption of Meimad.

[Walmart_shopper]

https://mobile.twitter.com/OferShelah/status/1235485644312506369

I'm not sure of everyone in Blue and White feels this way, and the answer to that question will determine a lot over the coming days, but I will say that this is certainly a better approach than the "Jewish majority" nonsense we heard before the election.

[danny]

Yeah - funnily enough the other party this election that can claim at least part of the mantle of religious Zionism is Meretz, through its de-facto absorption of Meimad.

In what way? As far as I can tell Meimad simply stopped running after 2009, they never joined any other party. they did consider running in the first 2019 election, but nothing came out of it.

[Walmart_shopper]

So Lieberman will support the bill which would prevent anyone under indictment from forming a government. It will apply for the NEXT election, however, and not right now. I suppose it is designed to disincentivize new elections for the Likud, but I doubt that it does.

[America Needs R'hllor]

So Lieberman will support the bill which would prevent anyone under indictment from forming a government. It will apply for the NEXT election, however, and not right now. I suppose it is designed to disincentivize new elections for the Likud, but I doubt that it does.

He will also support an eight years term limits for PMs. If they want these laws to stand and not get overturned in the next election, it needs to be backed up by a KL-LGM minority government supported by YB, Hadash, Taal and Raam from outside and with Balad abstaining. There's no other way.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Looks like Lieberman has terms for this: unity government with Likud first in rotation, getting the Knesset Speakership, and getting the Presidency

[Hnv1]

Looks like Lieberman has terms for this: unity government with Likud first in rotation, getting the Knesset Speakership, and getting the Presidency

Speaker and President for Likud of course. This terms are unrealistic as Likud can’t have an alternative leader to go first and YB have to recommend Gantz so he gets the mandate first and B&W can push it through the house

[Walmart_shopper]

Looks like Lieberman has terms for this: unity government with Likud first in rotation, getting the Knesset Speakership, and getting the Presidency

Speaker and President for Likud of course. This terms are unrealistic as Likud can’t have an alternative leader to go first and YB have to recommend Gantz so he gets the mandate first and B&W can push it through the house

Yeah, exactly. This is as fruitless as the Rivlin plan in September. If you want the bill then pass the bill. But all of this game-playing only solidifies the probability of new elections, which Lieberman promised to help avoid.