Israeli General Election (2nd of March, 2020): Madness

[CumbrianLefty]

Is there an Israeli equivalent of "Brenda from Bristol"?

[CumbrianLefty]

Peretz's collection of failed moves led to Jewish Home being the weakest part of the union with just one realistic spot on the combined list.

Which means basically the death of Mafdal.

The Labour-Meretz list have Ruth Dayan (aged 102) the wife of, and Yael Dayan (the daughter of) in places 107-108. one represents Meretz the other Labour. The also have Yossi Beilin from Meretz and his son Gil from Labour. this is truly a family reunion. I was mainly shocked Ruth was still alive

Labor has a list up to 120, that's news to me.

all the big parties have a list of 120, once every party fielded 120 candidates, less common nowadays

Heh, actually did not know this. There must be some right oddballs towards the bottom

[CumbrianLefty]

This might be a bad place to ask this, but why exactly does Israel have at-large parliamentary elections? It just seems a little odd having a Westminster-ish system but without constituencies. Is there some historical rationale for it?

I know this is almost a month old, but I have to say: I much prefer the Israeli system. It prevents regional-political divisions and ensures every vote counts equally. There is nothing very democratic about the British Westminster system, where the Liberal Democrats can win 20-25% of the vote and get under 10% of the seats, but the SNP can win 4% of the vote and get the same number of seats.

But you know very well that the SNP stand in less than 10% of the seats, not the best example.

[CumbrianLefty]

Likud just won't die, will they??

[CumbrianLefty]

"Politics fatigue" - one result of which was lower turnout - was certainly a factor in the bigger than expected Tory win in the UK a few months ago.

[CumbrianLefty]

The fantastical tone of the right (and self-immolating left) is absolutely amazing to me. Likud insists that they will pick off left wing defectors to get a majority. But all the likely suspects have returned serve and rejected the idea. Other right wing leaders insist that Netanyahu will somehow form a government. How? "He just will." Gideon Levy in Haaretz today announced "the majority has spoken!" Indeed it has, against Netanyahu and his atavistic right wing bloc. Even otherwise sober writers and politicians are already handing the government over to Bibi for four more years. Liberman says he won't sit with Bibi and will try to avoid a fourth campaign. But unless he is ready to sit with an ascendent Joint List, he will he sending us back to pols in September.

Math is math. Bibi's "win" was solid, but mostly cosmetic. He has pinned his future to a religious right bloc even at the risk of anathemizing the opposition. That bloc does not have 61 seats and in time it will seem clear enough that Bibi once again cannot form a functioning government. The euphoris on the right equals how the left felt in September. Surely, we thought, Gantz will find a way to make 57 seats into a majority. He'll peel off Likud MKs or coax the Joint List into a minority government. But 57 is and was not 61. And neither, of course, is 59.

One issue here is what is meant by 'majority'. There's still an effective cordon sanitaire against the JL, even if it's cracking. If you read 'majority' as 'majority of the Jewish electorate' such sentiments make a lot more sense, even if they don't work mathematically.

Well by that definition Bibi had a majority since last April. However, that wasn't the media's story then. It's probably because Bibi had 60 votes in the first count, and the first voice is what gets repeated these days, not the most accurate. I mean...look at Iowa. Look at Blyth Valley.

Hmmm, in what way was that one not "accurate"?

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, but in that case the "take" was largely accurate - not the case with other things you mentioned.

But we are getting off topic

[CumbrianLefty]

The media really is broken all over the world, isn't it?

[CumbrianLefty]

can't wait for libs to act like everything wrong with israel has now been solved with bibi out of the picture

Literally no libs act like this. It will take decades to clean up from the Bibist arson on Israeli civil society. But it's okay to feel a tiny bit encouraged by the opportunity to at least start the clean up

Yes, this. He needs to go for anything even mildly good to happen.

[CumbrianLefty]

Bans of that sort are rarely effective in the long run, as well as being anti-democratic.

[CumbrianLefty]

Orly levy is speaking against the minority government and the joint venture with Meretz. F***ing *********

Might just vote Joint List if there's a fourth election lol

Can't wait for your post on why you support Joint List.  Imagine if the Joint List seat count reaches 20.

I probably won't. I physically can't vote homophobes and Balad in. But Orly Levy stole our votes and it's outrageous. Gantz and Peretz need to get their racists in line fast.

Why is she a racist? Still trying to push a unity government in 2020 is flat out stupid but you’re overreacting a bit

She might come around anyways who knows

Her (Likud-supporting) brother has been seen in cosy chats with Bibi, so I guess not.

The real question was why such an obvious snake was allowed on a left wing list in the first place?

[CumbrianLefty]

Does this mean we could FINALLY be seeing the back of Netanyahu?

[CumbrianLefty]

So what has actually happened?

[CumbrianLefty]

How did Israel end up with such a rabidly partisan Speaker in the first place?

[CumbrianLefty]

So basically, Gantz has handed Netanyahu the win that he failed to get for three elections in a row?

[CumbrianLefty]

Shas' leader has guaranteed Gantz that he'll ensure Bibi honors the rotation agreement. A new law will reportedly ensure that, if snap elections are called, then Gantz will automatically become PM of the caretaker government.

Is it just me or does anybody else think that Bibi's hoping to become President when Rivlin's out next year? That'd earn him 7 years of immunity.

Isn't that meant to be an at least moderately "respected across the board" figure?

[CumbrianLefty]

Problem is, the "two state solution" is effectively dead (in large part thanks to Likud's actions)

[CumbrianLefty]

All in all, this seems nearly ideal. Good that annexation probably isn't happening and the door on the 2SS isn't being closed. Sad to see Ohana go, though, and I would have liked to see fewer Hosen ministers, but it's a small price to pay. Hope the fight against the scourge of dikastocracy will still continue. In a true democracy, power needs to be placed firmly in the hands of the parliament; this power should not be watered down by unelected judges with a different agenda. From that point of view, Levin as speaker would at least be good symbolically.

Niesenkorn in Justice. Gantz in defense. And Socialists in Economy. Literally no right winger finds this "nearly ideal." The right wing lost the election and they're paying for it in terms of the most meaningful seats in government. The right wing traded all of that for keeping the ideologically flexible Netanyahu in office for 2 years. Even with Levin as Speaker thhe Likud will not he able to control the legislative agenda. That will push the major policy issues to the ministries, which are now controlled by leftists. And if Bibi wants to remain PM during his trial he can do nothing about it.

With Niesenkorn in Justice almost all of Shaked's reforms will be reversed. That is a big win for the left. And it also ensures that Bibi have zero chance at immunity unless he becomes president.

To be clear, I think as a matter of principle Gantz ahould have stayed out. But most right wingers are genuinely dismayed at how much power Netanyahu is giving the left. Very practically Gantz has ensured that not only will Bibi be gone within two years, but that the left will have more influence than it's had in a decade at least. So I'm not happy about it, but Bibi has traded the government to tue left for his own seat. That is not something anyone but Bibi's most ardent supporters are happy about, and it's why Yamina is losing its mind right now.

An interesting take - do you think Gantz actually planned all this or just "got lucky"?

[CumbrianLefty]

Ah right, thought the above scenario was maybe a bit too good to be true......

[CumbrianLefty]

B&W and Labour announce the union of factions in the house and possibly parties towards the next election. which basically means the death of Labour, though B&W acts classically like the old Labour so in a sense it lives on

Yeah, they're "starting talks" on this. If it really ends up as a complete merger of both parties, Labour is officially death.

Good riddance.

Genuinely once a great party, nonetheless. So in that sense it is still a bit sad.

[CumbrianLefty]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/unity-talks-remain-frozen-today-blame-game-ensues/

Thank God the parties in my country aren’t behaving like this. Genuine crisis calls for working together, not politicians childishly making it about themselves and putting their personal agendas first.

How do Likud voters justify this?

They can "justify" literally anything.

(see also: supporters of several other right wing parties across the world)

[CumbrianLefty]

Poll from this morning had Likud on 42, the right bloc on 64 and Meretz on 7 with Labour below the threshold. Seems like a junk pollster to me

Well that bit seems quite believable tbh.

[CumbrianLefty]

Likud/B&W talks are resuming- mandate ends shortly.

It appears to be going up in flames.

A #4 coming right up.

If election #3 was "Madness" what on earth should we call #4??

[CumbrianLefty]

(Also, the IDF's culture is nothing like that of the Turkish military, so if it did take power in a moment of extreme political crisis - which it won't, let's be real - I'm pretty confident they'd restore democracy as soon as possible.)

A promise that has been made many times in the past, but not always kept.

[CumbrianLefty]

They’ve reached an agreement, apparently, maybe. We’ll see.

What, again?