Israeli General Election (2nd of March, 2020): Madness

[Walmart_shopper]

Likud are working on base turnout. My partner was a Likud members for years and she’s been getting more texts and calls then ever. They also have an app that take information from cellphone to target family and friends of those with the app

If Arab turnout will decrease by 5% and Likud/shas demographics by 2-3% we might see a very narrow right wing majority

Of course Likud is working on base turnout. Just as they have done for the last 5 elections. The problem is that the party is a led by the political equivalent of a rotting carcas and that hardly inspires people to vote for you. Unless the Arab vote drops a solid 10 points (to a historically low 50%ish) and Likud turnout skyrockets and Tel Aviv turnout stays typically low, there aren't enough voters to get to 61 for the right wing. And while those three things are theoretically possible, them happening all at once are far down the list of likely possibilitiea. More likely is a significant drop in right wing turnout and the Arab and left wing vote staying the same. That alone would give Gantz close to 60 seats. If instead of staying home those right wingers voted for Blur and White, watch out.

[Hnv1]

Which parties do Ethiopian Jews generally favour?

Likud in first, followed by BW and then Shas.

Is this because of any specific issues, or the same kinds of reasons as Likud does better with Mizrahis?

They also attribute bringing them here to Shamir, and are slightly more religious than the average Israeli

[Hnv1]

Likud is actually trying to get Arab support this time, spending actual resources there, and Bibi did an interview with an Arabic website.

Why in the world would any Arab support Likud and why does Bibi think that Arabs could support Likud.

Surprise as you may be there are Arab likud voters, and not only Druze

[Walmart_shopper]

Joint List has put big flashy billboards in Yiddish in Bnei Barak ("Your voice against forced enlistment') and in Amharic in Petah Tikvah ("Your voice against police harrassment"). I'm pretty sure these are more about getting the votes of ex-Meretz voters than Chassidish or Ethiopian voters, but I'm interested to know what the Israeli posters here think of it. Have y'all noticed an increased interest in the Joint List among Jewish  folks? Do you think this multi-lingual campaigning will pay off short term (more votes) or long term (building a base, expanding Hadash's reach?)...

It's definitely a long-term strategy. There is actually a surprising amount of warmth between the Haredi parties and the Joint List, and a decent amount of ideological compatability, too. I doubt it will help much this time, but it's a beautiful strategy for the long term.

[Walmart_shopper]

Likud is actually trying to get Arab support this time, spending actual resources there, and Bibi did an interview with an Arabic website.

It's not as dumb as it sounds, honestly. Netanyahu's government has invested a massive amount in the Arab sector and helped oversee Arabs becoming Israel's new yuppies. He deserves far more credit than he gets for that.

[Walmart_shopper]

Likud is actually trying to get Arab support this time, spending actual resources there, and Bibi did an interview with an Arabic website.

Lol Arab48?

Arabs are far less obsessed with the occupation than Jews want them to be. The reason the Joint List did so well in September was that they recalibrated their campaign around pocketbook issues, building permits and sectoral development, and curbing violence. That resonates with Arab voters, who frankly think  failing schools and unsafe streets are a bigger problem than geopolitical dumpster fires like the conflict. Bibi has always recognized this and has invested resources accordingly. He won't get a lot of Arab votes, but even stealing a single mandate away is a big deal.

[danny]

Likud is actually trying to get Arab support this time, spending actual resources there, and Bibi did an interview with an Arabic website.

Lol Arab48?

Panet

[Walmart_shopper]

Likud is actually trying to get Arab support this time, spending actual resources there, and Bibi did an interview with an Arabic website.

Lol Arab48?

Panet

I think Panet might be about the size of Ynet and Walla, in terms of traffic.

[jaymichaud]

Likud is actually trying to get Arab support this time, spending actual resources there, and Bibi did an interview with an Arabic website.

Lol Arab48?

Arabs are far less obsessed with the occupation than Jews want them to be. The reason the Joint List did so well in September was that they recalibrated their campaign around pocketbook issues, building permits and sectoral development, and curbing violence. That resonates with Arab voters, who frankly think  failing schools and unsafe streets are a bigger problem than geopolitical dumpster fires like the conflict. Bibi has always recognized this and has invested resources accordingly. He won't get a lot of Arab votes, but even stealing a single mandate away is a big deal.

Yeah, that's the only Arab-Israeli news site I knew of lol.

[America Needs R'hllor]

A couple polls showing Likud leading KL came out today. I literally can't imagine Netanyahu as my PM for more than a year or so.

[Walmart_shopper]

A couple polls showing Likud leading KL came out today. I literally can't imagine Netanyahu as my PM for more than a year or so.

But the blocks didn't shift. Netanyahu has absolutely no path to a majority. Either Liberman and KL give up their "Jewish majority" fantasy or we'll have a fourth election. The latter has apparently already been penciled in by electoral commission officials for September.

I actually love that the left is eating into Gantz righr now. After a campaign of LARPing as Likudniks I only wonder why only now KL is getting weaker. Hopefully the Joint List gets 15 mandates and Gantz is forced to rely on Arab support for a majority.

[Oryxslayer]

A couple polls showing Likud leading KL came out today. I literally can't imagine Netanyahu as my PM for more than a year or so.

Wait, someone other than Direct Polls (consistent outlier) shows Likud ahead?

[Walmart_shopper]

A couple polls showing Likud leading KL came out today. I literally can't imagine Netanyahu as my PM for more than a year or so.

Wait, someone other than Direct Polls (consistent outlier) shows Likud ahead?

Channel 12 and Channel 11 both show Likud leading by one mandate.

[xelas81]

It seems likely there will be 4th elections (and 5th, and 6th ....)
IMO easiest solution to end the gridlock was 1-vs-1 direct PM election.
Is any parties suggesting this?

[Estrella]

It seems likely there will be 4th elections (and 5th, and 6th ....)
IMO easiest solution to end the gridlock was 1-vs-1 direct PM election.
Is any parties suggesting this?

That was tried thrice and all three times it didn't produce a result much more decisive than a Knesset-only election would have been. Unless you plan to dramatically increase the PM's power, a direction election is a waste of time, because the PM can't govern without Knesset anyway.

[Walmart_shopper]

Channel 13 out with a new poll in which Likud leads by a single mandate. Labor-Meretz is eating into Blue and White right now. So the blocs aren't really shifting, but left wing voters are leaving Gantz for smaller parties. I wonder how much panic Blue and White is feeling right now. They are dropping like a rock, but to their allies on the left. So it makes it even MORE likely that the only path to power is a leftist government with Arab and Liberman support. Hilariously, that's precisely what Gantz and friends have tried so hard to avoid.

The real question remains turnout, of course. One major pollster sees the Arab turnout very close to September's election, which was good but not explosive. The Jewish vote dropped in September. If the Jewish vote drops again the Joint List could get 15 seats if the Arab sector really makes a show of political power and shows up. Depending on where turnout among Jews drops most that could dramatically alter the math for Blue and White, even if they finish behind Likud in terms of mandates.

[Walmart_shopper]

There has been some suggestion that KL's drop may he due to the announcement of a criminal investigation opening on Gantz's old company (though Gantz is not suspected of wrongdoing). He basically got James Comey-ed this week. But that hasn't pushed anti-Bibi voters to Bibi. They've just moved to Meretz-Labor.

My hunch is that it's a small poll divot for Gantz but with the rockets from Gaza and undecideds coming home I suspect KL will quickly recover and they and the Likud will be basically tied through the weekend. The left will likely go into election day with 57-58 seats in the final polls (compared to 56 for the religious right), and turnout will determine whether Gantz gets the votes to dump Bibi or whether we'll go to a fourth election will the PM on trial.

[jaymichaud]

Channel 13 out with a new poll in which Likud leads by a single mandate. Labor-Meretz is eating into Blue and White right now. So the blocs aren't really shifting, but left wing voters are leaving Gantz for smaller parties. I wonder how much panic Blue and White is feeling right now. They are dropping like a rock, but to their allies on the left. So it makes it even MORE likely that the only path to power is a leftist government with Arab and Liberman support. Hilariously, that's precisely what Gantz and friends have tried so hard to avoid.

The real question remains turnout, of course. One major pollster sees the Arab turnout very close to September's election, which was good but not explosive. The Jewish vote dropped in September. If the Jewish vote drops again the Joint List could get 15 seats if the Arab sector really makes a show of political power and shows up. Depending on where turnout among Jews drops most that could dramatically alter the math for Blue and White, even if they finish behind Likud in terms of mandates.

Not particularly 'leftist' but I can see a B&W/Labor-Gesher/Meretz/YB coalition with Hadash/Ta'al/Ra'am as confidence and supply.

[Oryxslayer]

Channel 13 out with a new poll in which Likud leads by a single mandate. Labor-Meretz is eating into Blue and White right now. So the blocs aren't really shifting, but left wing voters are leaving Gantz for smaller parties. I wonder how much panic Blue and White is feeling right now. They are dropping like a rock, but to their allies on the left. So it makes it even MORE likely that the only path to power is a leftist government with Arab and Liberman support. Hilariously, that's precisely what Gantz and friends have tried so hard to avoid.

The real question remains turnout, of course. One major pollster sees the Arab turnout very close to September's election, which was good but not explosive. The Jewish vote dropped in September. If the Jewish vote drops again the Joint List could get 15 seats if the Arab sector really makes a show of political power and shows up. Depending on where turnout among Jews drops most that could dramatically alter the math for Blue and White, even if they finish behind Likud in terms of mandates.

Not particularly 'leftist' but I can see a B&W/Labor-Gesher/Meretz/YB coalition with Hadash/Ta'al/Ra'am as confidence and supply.

Yes that is the eternal enigma - will YB be willing to work with Bibi+Haredim or the Arabs? If they are, then this stalemate instantly breaks and the general breakdown that was returned last time and looks to be returned again  works fine. However, so far Lieberman has been inflexible when push comes to shove. Repeated elections is diminishing everyone's coffers, so eventually YB has to choose debts, a coalition, or a joint ticket. Maybe that is this time around. If so, then such a government seems the most 'acceptable" to Leib: the non-tolerable Arabs are at arms length, the Haredim are out, and Lieberman probably gets an even-more oversized portfolio since it would be a govt of 45ish MKs.

[Walmart_shopper]

Another day, another poll showing Likud up by one. But the left still leads by one mandate.

Honestly, the herding of the polls really freaks me out. It just feels like something is being missed by the polls. I just don't know what it is. I know that the Joint List is very hopeful for their performance, but that obviously depends on Arab and relative Jewish turnout, which I doubt anyone really knows. Otzmah is polling well below the threshold right now, so there isn't the chance of the late right wing surge we saw in polls last time. It's good to keep in mind that in September the polls showed the race tied between Blue and White and Likud with the right getting 59-60 mandates and Otzma getting over the threshold in half of the polls . Today the top two parties are still basically even, but the right wing only gets 56-57 in polls. If polls once again are underestimating the left then Gantz may be closer to 61 than it seems. Of course that also means Bibi's bloc may be closer to a majority than polls show, too. In the previous two elections the right wing has underperformed the polling by 2 or 3 mandates. So we'll see what happens on Monday.

[Walmart_shopper]

Channel 13 out with a new poll in which Likud leads by a single mandate. Labor-Meretz is eating into Blue and White right now. So the blocs aren't really shifting, but left wing voters are leaving Gantz for smaller parties. I wonder how much panic Blue and White is feeling right now. They are dropping like a rock, but to their allies on the left. So it makes it even MORE likely that the only path to power is a leftist government with Arab and Liberman support. Hilariously, that's precisely what Gantz and friends have tried so hard to avoid.

The real question remains turnout, of course. One major pollster sees the Arab turnout very close to September's election, which was good but not explosive. The Jewish vote dropped in September. If the Jewish vote drops again the Joint List could get 15 seats if the Arab sector really makes a show of political power and shows up. Depending on where turnout among Jews drops most that could dramatically alter the math for Blue and White, even if they finish behind Likud in terms of mandates.

Not particularly 'leftist' but I can see a B&W/Labor-Gesher/Meretz/YB coalition with Hadash/Ta'al/Ra'am as confidence and supply.

At this point it looks like the Arab parties would have a much bigger problem with that than Liberman. But I suspect something like that is basically what Gantz, Peretz, and Liberman are shooting for right now (Liberman can justify his capitulation on entering an Arab-supported minority government, his rejection of which caused the third election, by arguing that anything is better than a fourth electio, and that the Arabs aren't technically part of the government and blah blah blah). There is always talk about Bennet and Shaked or part of Likud or even the Haredim suddenly ditching Bibi when they see his trial start in 3 weeks. But I think everyone recognizes that that is highly unlikely to happen. Inside KL they've been hoping for KL+Labor/Meretz+YB to get more seats than the religious right and just form a minority government with the Joint List simply abstaining on any confidence motion. But right now that only is getting at most 52 seats (compared to 55-57 for the right), so the likelihood of that happening is about the same as the left getting a majority on its own without Liberman. Which is to say that it would take a decent though not unimagineable polling error to pick up those extra four mandates.

I do think it's more likely that the left slips over 60 mandates than the right doing so, but especially with KL falling in the polls I think that is still not hugely likely to happen. If the Joint List and Liberman can't play nicely then I don't see how a fourth election can be avoided.

[Continential]

When will there be a government if there's a 4th or a 5th election?

[Oryxslayer]

When will there be a government if there's a 4th or a 5th election?

Like I said, eventually YB (supposed kingmaker) will have to decide between entering govt, racking up debts via repeated elections, or joining a joint ticket to limit loss. So eventually there will be a govt, this won't go on forever. It may not stop here though.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Why would YB trigger a new election and join a joint ticket when they could just pick a side? Surely the point at which the time they stop being able to campaign alone is the time they become clearly associated with one side or the other?

[CumbrianLefty]

Likud just won't die, will they??