Israeli General Election (2nd of March, 2020): Madness

[jaymichaud]

Likud are threatening to call off negotiations if B&W replace the speaker. they're claiming they want the speaker and finance for the first year and a half while B&W will have foreign and defence during that time but then they change.

I find it implausible, they're just playing in the center circle the prevent the anti-bibi legislation.
 

They do recognise they don’t have the mandate... right?

[America Needs R'hllor]

The Joint List is obviously catch-all for all Arab movements and politics and they are marketed as such. They would therefore be homophobes in the joint list as well as progressives.

Can someone tell me the differences within the Arab parties? Hadash is obviously the social democratic party and is? more moderate on the Palestinian Nationalism issues.

Balad is the left-wing Arab nationalist party, less socialist but more radical on the nationalism issue?

UAL represents the Islamic Arab movement, are they more moderate or extreme on the nationalism issue.

Also what's Ta'al as a political party?

Why did UAL and Balad unite, and Hadash-Ta'al unite?

Will add to what Hnv said- Ra'am seem consistently the most willing to cooperate with Jewish parties, so you could say "moderate". They're even known to strike deals with the right.

[Walmart_shopper]

Likud are threatening to call off negotiations if B&W replace the speaker. they're claiming they want the speaker and finance for the first year and a half while B&W will have foreign and defence during that time but then they change.

I find it implausible, they're just playing in the center circle the prevent the anti-bibi legislation.
 

The deal they're offering to Gantz is so profoundly unserious. I'm not convinced Gantz has it in him to say no to a decent offer to serve under Netanyahu, but it's pretty easy to say no to a bad offer to do so. I suspect that Likud is just angling really hard for a fourth election and this is all just campaign set-up material. Unless Gantz pulls a needle out of the haystack it's hard to see a government being formed. My worry is that the anti-Bibi legislation will actually have the desired effect, will prompt the Likud to offer more reasonable concessions, and Gantz will jump at it and we'll he stuck with Netanyahu foe the reat of the Corona crisis. And if the last two weeks are any indication, it will be a literal dictatorship until Bibi reneges on the agreement, sends us to new elections anyway, and on and on we go. Unless someone is willing to put a stake through Netanyahu's political heart, to form a government without him, this charade will go on and the Bibi-ist autocracy will grow more entrenched.

[Hnv1]

The Joint List is obviously catch-all for all Arab movements and politics and they are marketed as such. They would therefore be homophobes in the joint list as well as progressives.

Can someone tell me the differences within the Arab parties? Hadash is obviously the social democratic party and is? more moderate on the Palestinian Nationalism issues.

Balad is the left-wing Arab nationalist party, less socialist but more radical on the nationalism issue?

UAL represents the Islamic Arab movement, are they more moderate or extreme on the nationalism issue.

Also what's Ta'al as a political party?

Why did UAL and Balad unite, and Hadash-Ta'al unite?

Will add to what Hnv said- Ra'am seem consistently the most willing to cooperate with Jewish parties, so you could say "moderate". They're even known to strike deals with the right.

As a rule of thumb, the sensation of Palestinian Nationalism among Israeli Arabs is in direct proportion to their level of education. Ra’am represents the poorest and least educated hence the Palestinian topic isn’t that important there with the exception of Jerusalem.

Balad are the most Nationalist, but they are the party of educated young Arabs who went to universities in Israel and studied critical theory, they are also highly critical of the PA. Hadash had a Nationalistic turn the past decade, but they are the establishment party for Arabs in the north so they are merely responding to pressure bottom up. Tibi is basically the PA’s representative in Israel (like the Irish MP in Liverpool in olden days), but his tone is less harsh

[America Needs R'hllor]

Likud are threatening to call off negotiations if B&W replace the speaker. they're claiming they want the speaker and finance for the first year and a half while B&W will have foreign and defence during that time but then they change.

I find it implausible, they're just playing in the center circle the prevent the anti-bibi legislation.
 

The deal they're offering to Gantz is so profoundly unserious. I'm not convinced Gantz has it in him to say no to a decent offer to serve under Netanyahu, but it's pretty easy to say no to a bad offer to do so. I suspect that Likud is just angling really hard for a fourth election and this is all just campaign set-up material. Unless Gantz pulls a needle out of the haystack it's hard to see a government being formed. My worry is that the anti-Bibi legislation will actually have the desired effect, will prompt the Likud to offer more reasonable concessions, and Gantz will jump at it and we'll he stuck with Netanyahu foe the reat of the Corona crisis. And if the last two weeks are any indication, it will be a literal dictatorship until Bibi reneges on the agreement, sends us to new elections anyway, and on and on we go. Unless someone is willing to put a stake through Netanyahu's political heart, to form a government without him, this charade will go on and the Bibi-ist autocracy will grow more entrenched.

The fact that despite having the agreement of Liberaman to sit in a government with Meretz supported by the Joint List outside, Gantz could f this up. If he truly lets the useless randoms inside his party prevent him from becoming Prime Minister, this is truly amazing incompetency.

[Walmart_shopper]

The Joint List is obviously catch-all for all Arab movements and politics and they are marketed as such. They would therefore be homophobes in the joint list as well as progressives.

Can someone tell me the differences within the Arab parties? Hadash is obviously the social democratic party and is? more moderate on the Palestinian Nationalism issues.

Balad is the left-wing Arab nationalist party, less socialist but more radical on the nationalism issue?

UAL represents the Islamic Arab movement, are they more moderate or extreme on the nationalism issue.

Also what's Ta'al as a political party?

Why did UAL and Balad unite, and Hadash-Ta'al unite?

Ideology is not the core issue here, parts of Hadash are quite radical regarding Arab nationalism on par with Balad.

Hadash- the old guard, a left leaning faction more inclined towards moderate nationalism, a right wing faction (mainly the Nazareth branch) regarding nationalism and commitment to anti imperialism. voters are more educated, Christians, from the cities or villages up north.

Balad - radical, similar demographics as Hadash but with younger voters, but almost exclusively of educated elite from the north or the cities. Hadash also have "working class" voters if you like

Ta'al - basically the representation of the PA in Israel but a bit of a catch all party. Tibi is similar to Lapid for Arabs, a bit of centrist on a lot of issues without any core issue. He does well in the triangle and parts of the north. the least "political" of them, more of a personal vessel to Tibi

Ra'am - the Islamic movement is indeed the home to muslim voters, but under it all Ra'am is basically representing the Bedouin and the poor Muslims of the triangle and the north. Islamism isn't really the political agenda.

This is it. Balad is somewhat a more secular, more radical, more separatist version of Hadash. Hadash has always been a Jewish-Arab party, although it has become a bastion of Arab Christians, who are typically more moderate and bourgeois and don't fit well into the Jewish-Palestinian Arab paradigm. A lot of secular Muslims also support Hadash. Balad is also a predominantly secular/Christian party, but not really much into integration. It's like Malcolm X to Hadash's MLK Jr.  Like hnv says, it's also fairly bourgeois and well-educated.

Ta'al is basically the Ahmed Tibi fan club and Raam is a conventional Islamic religious party. Those two parties are probably closer to the mainstream of the Arab mileu in Israel, but Balad and Hadash have all the intellectual energy, political smarts, and especially excellent candidates.

[Walmart_shopper]

Likud are threatening to call off negotiations if B&W replace the speaker. they're claiming they want the speaker and finance for the first year and a half while B&W will have foreign and defence during that time but then they change.

I find it implausible, they're just playing in the center circle the prevent the anti-bibi legislation.
 

The deal they're offering to Gantz is so profoundly unserious. I'm not convinced Gantz has it in him to say no to a decent offer to serve under Netanyahu, but it's pretty easy to say no to a bad offer to do so. I suspect that Likud is just angling really hard for a fourth election and this is all just campaign set-up material. Unless Gantz pulls a needle out of the haystack it's hard to see a government being formed. My worry is that the anti-Bibi legislation will actually have the desired effect, will prompt the Likud to offer more reasonable concessions, and Gantz will jump at it and we'll he stuck with Netanyahu foe the reat of the Corona crisis. And if the last two weeks are any indication, it will be a literal dictatorship until Bibi reneges on the agreement, sends us to new elections anyway, and on and on we go. Unless someone is willing to put a stake through Netanyahu's political heart, to form a government without him, this charade will go on and the Bibi-ist autocracy will grow more entrenched.

The fact that despite having the agreement of Liberaman to sit in a government with Meretz supported by the Joint List outside, Gantz could f this up. If he truly lets the useless randoms inside his party prevent him from becoming Prime Minister, this is truly amazing incompetency.

That's just it. You have Balad's three votes, despite KL's truly lamentable "Jewish majority" campaign. You have Lieberman, to his credit, pretty much putting himself as far out on a political limb as you fan go in Israeli politics. Orly Levy is not surprising. And maybe even Hauser and Handel will indeed vote to bring doen their own government because...Arabs.  But there is absolutely no excuse for not immediately inking agreements and putting your majority to a vote. If Hauser and Handel want to end their near-term political futures by bringing down their government, so be it. At the very least Gantz will go to a fourth election with a new Speaker and having shown real courage and a willingness to lead by principle. But this rolling over and playing dead thing he's doing is absolutely remarkable.

[jaymichaud]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/report-likud-asks-allies-to-sign-new-loyalty-pledge-against-edelsteins-ouster/

Likud voters are dumb, Likud themselves are sinister.

[Hnv1]

SC is going to force the speaker to hold the vote to oust him if he doesn't do it himself, some (not all though) Likud ministers are calling him to refuse to comply with the writ. That would definitely lead to a massive constitutional crisis with the justices resigning

[America Needs R'hllor]

SC is going to force the speaker to hold the vote to oust him if he doesn't do it himself, some (not all though) Likud ministers are calling him to refuse to comply with the writ. That would definitely lead to a massive constitutional crisis with the justices resigning

Say it with me: dictatorship!

Also, the Joint List are refusing to oust Gafni from the Finance Committee. Tbf, the replacement is Oded Forer from Yisrael Beiteinu so it kind of makes sense, but Gafni's terrible so hopefully they agree to KL's offer (support for ousting him in exchange for two committees).

[jaymichaud]

SC is going to force the speaker to hold the vote to oust him if he doesn't do it himself, some (not all though) Likud ministers are calling him to refuse to comply with the writ. That would definitely lead to a massive constitutional crisis with the justices resigning

He has just over 3 hours to respond.

[Hnv1]

SC is going to force the speaker to hold the vote to oust him if he doesn't do it himself, some (not all though) Likud ministers are calling him to refuse to comply with the writ. That would definitely lead to a massive constitutional crisis with the justices resigning

Say it with me: dictatorship!

Also, the Joint List are refusing to oust Gafni from the Finance Committee. Tbf, the replacement is Oded Forer from Yisrael Beiteinu so it kind of makes sense, but Gafni's terrible so hopefully they agree to KL's offer (support for ousting him in exchange for two committees).

Gafni is actually a very good MK

[Hnv1]

So the speaker refused to comply which means the SC will issue a writ tomorrow to hold it on Wednesday. If he still refuses, well.

[America Needs R'hllor]

So the speaker refused to comply which means the SC will issue a writ tomorrow to hold it on Wednesday. If he still refuses, well.

The SC issued it this evening already.

[Hnv1]

So the speaker refused to comply which means the SC will issue a writ tomorrow to hold it on Wednesday. If he still refuses, well.

The SC issued it this evening already.

Just read it, 19 pages of demolishing the right’s feeble claims

[jaymichaud]

I don't understand why they pick the most ridiculous hills to die on. First the camera thing and now this. The harder they fight the stupider they look when they inevitably lose.

[Blair]

stupid question: Does the Supreme Court have any powers to impose it's order? If not is there anything the President could or more realistically would do?

Funnily enough when the UK had a similar (but in retrospect less severe) debate about the powers of the court the assumption was that the UK court system was strong enough to force a sitting PM to act & if not be held in contempt because we had an act of Parliament invoking it.

[brucejoel99]

This is so messed up. I'll be so pissed if Israel goes the way of Turkey, Iran, Russia, etc. in having a democracy-in-name-only.

I'm hoping people will find their sense but this is insane.

And hell, if this were any other time & they sought to ignore a High Court order, then there legitimately might be riots. The problem right now, of course, is that people are afraid to go outside & can't gather in large crowds because of the coronavirus, so this virus appears to have created a very good situation for Bibi & Likud.

[Hnv1]

stupid question: Does the Supreme Court have any powers to impose it's order? If not is there anything the President could or more realistically would do?

Funnily enough when the UK had a similar (but in retrospect less severe) debate about the powers of the court the assumption was that the UK court system was strong enough to force a sitting PM to act & if not be held in contempt because we had an act of Parliament invoking it.

Our legal system is built on writs just as the British one and our contempt of court is a translation of the British one. Though I doubt that if he refuses the court will hold him in contempt, that would merely be a massive constitutional crisis. Of course it could be bypassed by simply order the Knesset secretariat to put it on vote.

[Hnv1]

I don't understand why they pick the most ridiculous hills to die on. First the camera thing and now this. The harder they fight the stupider they look when they inevitably lose.

Because the know the Anti-Bibi laws are game changers in a manner they can’t predict

[jaymichaud]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/likud-says-right-wing-bloc-will-boycott-stolen-undemocratic-knesset/

Free real estate, everything finna pass 61-0 😂👌🏽

[brucejoel99]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/likud-says-right-wing-bloc-will-boycott-stolen-undemocratic-knesset/

"Blue and White together with [Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor] Liberman and the [mostly Arab] Joint List decided to steal the Knesset from 2.5 million right-wing voters," Likud said in a statement.

Actually, 2,332,733 left-wing bloc voters > 2,220,428 right-wing bloc voters. But thank you Likud, very cool!

[Walmart_shopper]

The irony is that the Joint List is given arguably more power now than if they were merely supporting a Gantz government from the outside. They are basically now part of the "government" faction of the Knesset.

Handel and Hauser don't seem bothered by this. Why not just let them vote once so the head of their list can become PM?

[Walmart_shopper]

I don't understand why they pick the most ridiculous hills to die on. First the camera thing and now this. The harder they fight the stupider they look when they inevitably lose.

Yes, but the kind of power and the kinds of laws KL is about to get are existential threats to Dear Leader.

[jaymichaud]

The irony is that the Joint List is given arguably more power now than if they were merely supporting a Gantz government from the outside. They are basically now part of the "government" faction of the Knesset.

Handel and Hauser don't seem bothered by this. Why not just let them vote once so the head of their list can become PM?

Apparently Touma-Suleman is rumored to lead a committee, would she agree to that?

And that’ll probably be the end result