Israeli General Election (2nd of March, 2020): Madness

[The Mikado]

So what's this new government going to look like? Likud + Yamina + Haredi + Gantz's half of Blue and White?

[brucejoel99]

So what's this new government going to look like? Likud + Yamina + Haredi + Gantz's half of Blue and White?

Yeah, the 58 from the right-religious bloc (Likud + Shas + UTJ + Yamina) + the 15 from Gantz's party Resilience + Hendel & Hauser. So at least 75 members in total.

[EastAnglianLefty]

So does Gantz have a future when Bibi inevitably betrays him and another election occurs? What voter base would he be able to retain?

[jaymichaud]

So does Gantz have a future when Bibi inevitably betrays him and another election occurs? What voter base would he be able to retain?

Lol no. His faction is gonna go the way of Kadima, just a lot quicker.

It'd be like if Sinn Féin just said "Lol nah f that United Ireland nonsense where those Westminster seats at?"

[Oryxslayer]

Bibi as President means he can't be PM.

I didn't say he'd be both? The implication is that Gantz replaces him upon his ascendancy to the Presidency.

No I mean Bibi's time as PM would be over once he's President, which is a good thing. It's a good thing he'd no longer have the power of Prime Minister vested with him and all.

I'm beginning to think that Bibi wants to co-opt Gantz over the next two years, even though Gantz right now made this decision from a position of weakness. It solves the succession crisis that now appears inevitable, and it makes these 'honor the rotation' pledges redundant. Gantz taking over Likud benefits Bibi personally in every way: appearance of non-partisanship, Gantz has limited ties to those inside Likud, Gantz is personally a weak politician, and Gantz will also allow the govt to undertake some of the 'liberal' stuff they promised (Gay marriage passing in the next few years along Likud+Gantz+YA+etc for instance) to push back against the religious trends. The important part about all of this is that if Bibi goes to the presidency he  therefore still maintains unofficial hold of Likud, but is able to push some reform in Likuds image, even though it won't overhaul anything fundamental below the surface.

[PSOL]

I just wanted to say that I told you all so.

Also who said here that Bibi always wins, I need that quote to be my next signature.

[The Mikado]

So what's this new government going to look like? Likud + Yamina + Haredi + Gantz's half of Blue and White?

Yeah, the 58 from the right-religious bloc (Likud + Shas + UTJ + Yamina) + the 15 from Gantz's party Resilience + Hendel & Hauser. So at least 75 members in total.

Is Gabi Ashkenazi going along?

Are any members of Israeli Resilience defecting to Telem or Yesh Atid over this? I'd be shocked if every Resilience MK was OK with this.

[Pericles]

Terrible news! Looks like Gantz didn't have the guts to finish Netanyahu off. How much damage will now be done to Israeli democracy?

[brucejoel99]

So what's this new government going to look like? Likud + Yamina + Haredi + Gantz's half of Blue and White?

Yeah, the 58 from the right-religious bloc (Likud + Shas + UTJ + Yamina) + the 15 from Gantz's party Resilience + Hendel & Hauser. So at least 75 members in total.

Is Gabi Ashkenazi going along?

Are any members of Israeli Resilience defecting to Telem or Yesh Atid over this? I'd be shocked if every Resilience MK was OK with this.

All of the Resilience MKs seem to be going along with it, yes. And Ashkenazi is not only a member of Resilience but is the rumored Defense Minister, so I'd indeed imagine that he's going along with it too, yeah.

[Walmart_shopper]

So does Gantz have a future when Bibi inevitably betrays him and another election occurs? What voter base would he be able to retain?

Of course not.

[Walmart_shopper]

Terrible news! Looks like Gantz didn't have the guts to finish Netanyahu off. How much damage will now be done to Israeli democracy?

It could be a lot. Or it could be a little. But I'm not optimistic because a lot depends on the sturdiness on Gantz's backbone.

[jaymichaud]

Gadeer Mreeh isn’t going with Gantz.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Gadeer Mreeh from Hosen, the first Druze woman MK in Israel, voices opposition to Gantz's decisions, saying that "a leader doesn't betray his values" and that she "won't sit one day under the corrupt man from balfour". Considering she's directly giving up a Ministry, it's pretty impressive.

[Walmart_shopper]

Shlomo Filber is out with a new poll that I find...interesting.

Likud 38
Lapid 16
Gantz 15
Joint List 15
Labor/Meretz 8
Shas 8
Yamina 7
UTJ 7
Lieberman 6

Right wing: 60
Left wing: 60

Here is why it is interesting:

1. Filber had a poll just a few days with Likud leadibg KL 40-30 and the right wing with 63 seats. Now they're only at 60, and from a very right-leaning pollstwr, too.

2. There are virtually no Corona rally-to-the-flag coattails for Netanyahu. In France Macron has rocketed from the grave to a 50% approval. In the US Trump, despite absolutely mangling the American crisis reaponse, has his best numbers ever right now. Boris Johnson fumbled the UK response at first and got historic apprroval numbers (and apparently Corona) as a reward. But Netanyahu? At least half the country still can't stand him.

3. Lieberman's voters agree with him. They simply care more about separating religion and state than the discomfort of using the Joint List to do it. He went way out on a limb this time, and it didn't affect him much. In opposition I can only imagine him gaining strength.

4. Lapid already starts ahead of Gantz. That's wonderful. Ofer Shelach is also a star and if Lapid gives him a more prominent role that could really benefit the party in opposition.

[jaymichaud]

Shlomo Filber is out with a new poll that I find...interesting.

Likud 38
Lapid 16
Gantz 15
Labor/Meretz 8
Shas 8
Yamina 7
UTJ 7
Lieberman 6

Right wing: 60
Left wing: 60

Here is why it is interesting:

1. Filber had a poll just a few days with Likud leadibg KL 40-30 and the right wing with 63 seats. Now they're only at 60, and from a very right-leaning pollstwr, too.

2. There are virtually no Corona rally-to-the-flag coattails for Netanyahu. In France Macron has rocketed from the grave to a 50% approval. In the US Trump, despite absolutely mangling the American crisis reaponse, has his best numbers ever right now. Boris Johnson fumbled the UK response at first and got historic apprroval numbers (and apparently Corona) as a reward. But Netanyahu? At least half the country still can't stand him.

3. Lieberman's voters agree with him. They simply care more about separating religion and state than the discomfort of using the Joint List to do it. He went way out on a limb this time, and it didn't affect him much. In opposition I can only imagine him gaining strength.

4. Lapid already starts ahead of Gantz. That's wonderful. Ofer Shelach is also a star and if Lapid gives him a more prominent role that could really benefit the party in opposition.

No Joint List?

[America Needs R'hllor]

Ofer Shelah and Pnina Tamano Shata are definitely strong. Yesh Atid has better MKs than Hosen. Also, this isn't a bad poll at all.

The movements we're expected to see between Hosen, YA and Telem:
Hendel and Hauser from Telem -> Hosen
Mreeh from Hosen -> YA\Telem
Andrey Kozhinov from Telem is apparently staying, but he voted for Gantz as Speaker so not entirely clear yet.
Orly Fruman from Telem is still undecided. Ya'alon, in founding a party with right wing figures, might be left alone in it.
Still unclear what can be done about the legal obstacles to all this. I have a feeling they'll treat the breakup as a break of one party (which is allowed if there are more than a third wanting to separate) rather than a break of several parties to allow all these movements. If Kozhinov and Fruman stay in Telem, the Kahol Lavan name will stay under Lapid.

[Hnv1]

Ofer Shelah and Pnina Tamano Shata are definitely strong. Yesh Atid has better MKs than Hosen. Also, this isn't a bad poll at all.

The movements we're expected to see between Hosen, YA and Telem:
Hendel and Hauser from Telem -> Hosen
Mreeh from Hosen -> YA\Telem
Andrey Kozhinov from Telem is apparently staying, but he voted for Gantz as Speaker so not entirely clear yet.
Orly Fruman from Telem is still undecided. Ya'alon, in founding a party with right wing figures, might be left alone in it.
Still unclear what can be done about the legal obstacles to all this. I have a feeling they'll treat the breakup as a break of one party (which is allowed if there are more than a third wanting to separate) rather than a break of several parties to allow all these movements. If Kozhinov and Fruman stay in Telem, the Kahol Lavan name will stay under Lapid.

Gantz is going to get screwed over. Bibi will tell him the agreements reached were under the assumption that he brings 40 seats with him, he will have to cut back on ministerial posts. Or Bibi somehow honors it but will poss 2-6 top likudniks and 3/4 of the Yamina leaders

[America Needs R'hllor]

Kozhinov staying with Telem

[Walmart_shopper]

Shlomo Filber is out with a new poll that I find...interesting.

Likud 38
Lapid 16
Gantz 15
Labor/Meretz 8
Shas 8
Yamina 7
UTJ 7
Lieberman 6

Right wing: 60
Left wing: 60

Here is why it is interesting:

1. Filber had a poll just a few days with Likud leadibg KL 40-30 and the right wing with 63 seats. Now they're only at 60, and from a very right-leaning pollstwr, too.

2. There are virtually no Corona rally-to-the-flag coattails for Netanyahu. In France Macron has rocketed from the grave to a 50% approval. In the US Trump, despite absolutely mangling the American crisis reaponse, has his best numbers ever right now. Boris Johnson fumbled the UK response at first and got historic apprroval numbers (and apparently Corona) as a reward. But Netanyahu? At least half the country still can't stand him.

3. Lieberman's voters agree with him. They simply care more about separating religion and state than the discomfort of using the Joint List to do it. He went way out on a limb this time, and it didn't affect him much. In opposition I can only imagine him gaining strength.

4. Lapid already starts ahead of Gantz. That's wonderful. Ofer Shelach is also a star and if Lapid gives him a more prominent role that could really benefit the party in opposition.

No Joint List?

15, sorry. But I would guess they'll get closer to 20.

[Walmart_shopper]

Put Lucy Aharish at #2 in Yesh Atid and you'll get at least five seats from Gantz.

[jaymichaud]

Put Lucy Aharish at #2 in Yesh Atid and you'll get at least five seats from Gantz.

YA and Labor could get all of those seats if they play their cards right (granted the latter doesn’t sit with Netanyahu, if they do then they’re history).

Anyone who thinks Resilience will get 4 seats in the next election is living in upside down world.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Put Lucy Aharish at #2 in Yesh Atid and you'll get at least five seats from Gantz.

Oh yeah by the way, Lucy Aharish is definitely going into politics. Watch her in the next couple years.

[Oryxslayer]

2. There are virtually no Corona rally-to-the-flag coattails for Netanyahu. In France Macron has rocketed from the grave to a 50% approval. In the US Trump, despite absolutely mangling the American crisis reaponse, has his best numbers ever right now. Boris Johnson fumbled the UK response at first and got historic apprroval numbers (and apparently Corona) as a reward. But Netanyahu? At least half the country still can't stand him.

Any approval numbers, or say Head-to-Head Bibi vs Gantz? What we have have seen in other counties, as you noted, is leaders in positions of prominence gaining approvals via crisis management. However, the approvals are 'soft' in that approvers have not abandoned their old parties. In Italy polls have found Conte with sky high approvals, but the party toplines have only slightly changed. Lega still leads and the right still leads the govt in combined percentage, but by a bit less. Austria and Germany have found the parties to be polling similar to their numbers before the crisis, just with the government parties up by a hair since before the crisis. Trump similarly has been unable to convert record approvals into poll leads over Biden nationally. South Korean polls have been stable before and during this crisis, despite the election in a few weeks. The UK in this regard is an outlier because of the labour succession occurring concurrent to the virus.

I wouldn't be surprised if it's the same in Israel. Bibi personally is likely enjoying some historically high numbers, but voters haven't moved that much.

[brucejoel99]

2. There are virtually no Corona rally-to-the-flag coattails for Netanyahu. In France Macron has rocketed from the grave to a 50% approval. In the US Trump, despite absolutely mangling the American crisis reaponse, has his best numbers ever right now. Boris Johnson fumbled the UK response at first and got historic apprroval numbers (and apparently Corona) as a reward. But Netanyahu? At least half the country still can't stand him.

Any approval numbers, or say Head-to-Head Bibi vs Gantz? What we have have seen in other counties, as you noted, is leaders in positions of prominence gaining approvals via crisis management. However, the approvals are 'soft' in that approvers have not abandoned their old parties. In Italy polls have found Conte with sky high approvals, but the party toplines have only slightly changed. Lega still leads and the right still leads the govt in combined percentage, but by a bit less. Austria and Germany have found the parties to be polling similar to their numbers before the crisis, just with the government parties up by a hair since before the crisis. Trump similarly has been unable to convert record approvals into poll leads over Biden nationally. South Korean polls have been stable before and during this crisis, despite the election in a few weeks. The UK in this regard is an outlier because of the labour succession occurring concurrent to the virus.

I wouldn't be surprised if it's the same in Israel. Bibi personally is likely enjoying some historically high numbers, but voters haven't moved that much.

Head-to-Head Bibi vs Gantz would be one of the most completely irrelevant polls to undertake now.

[The Mikado]

Gadeer Mreeh isn’t going with Gantz.

Glad to see at least ONE member of Israeli Resilience has a spine. Not surprised it takes the Druze to be the moral conscience of the group.