2020 Poll Hype Thread

[wbrocks67]

NYT Predictions:
PA: Biden +7
FL: Biden +3
WI: Biden +8
AZ: Biden +5

Monmouth:
PA: Biden +9

Oh thank god. I’m not a doomer but I still feel like things are shifting in Trump’s favor here at the end. I also don’t think he has enough time to come back, like he did 4 years ago when Hillary’s numbers started to crater four weeks out instead of four days out.

We just hit 100K cases a day with the virus and Trump is even more of a trainwreck than usual. How are things going towards his favor here at the end?

[Bojack Horseman]

NYT Predictions:
PA: Biden +7
FL: Biden +3
WI: Biden +8
AZ: Biden +5

Monmouth:
PA: Biden +9

Oh thank god. I’m not a doomer but I still feel like things are shifting in Trump’s favor here at the end. I also don’t think he has enough time to come back, like he did 4 years ago when Hillary’s numbers started to crater four weeks out instead of four days out.

We just hit 100K cases a day with the virus and Trump is even more of a trainwreck than usual. How are things going towards his favor here at the end?

Low minority turnout numbers, Republicans coming home, Cubans in Florida.

[VAR]

Research & Polling Inc. poll of NM (probably) coming soon.

https://www.abqjournal.com/1512949/extremely-close-race-for-2nd-congressional-district-ex-pollster-notes-race-between-torres-small-and-herrell-comes-down-to-turnout.html

[ProgressiveModerate]

NYT Predictions:
PA: Biden +7
FL: Biden +3
WI: Biden +8
AZ: Biden +5

Monmouth:
PA: Biden +9

Oh thank god. I’m not a doomer but I still feel like things are shifting in Trump’s favor here at the end. I also don’t think he has enough time to come back, like he did 4 years ago when Hillary’s numbers started to crater four weeks out instead of four days out.

We just hit 100K cases a day with the virus and Trump is even more of a trainwreck than usual. How are things going towards his favor here at the end?

Low minority turnout numbers, Republicans coming home, Cubans in Florida.

1. There hasn’t been any stark drop off in minority turnout based on the early voting numbers. Minorities always tend to turn out at lower rates than whites, and there is evidence to suggests that gap is narrowing.

2. The majority of the electorate is Democrats and Independents.

3. That is true, but that’s something gijg isolated to a very specific state.

[swf541]

NYT Predictions:
PA: Biden +7
FL: Biden +3
WI: Biden +8
AZ: Biden +5

Monmouth:
PA: Biden +9

Oh thank god. I’m not a doomer but I still feel like things are shifting in Trump’s favor here at the end. I also don’t think he has enough time to come back, like he did 4 years ago when Hillary’s numbers started to crater four weeks out instead of four days out.

We just hit 100K cases a day with the virus and Trump is even more of a trainwreck than usual. How are things going towards his favor here at the end?

Low minority turnout numbers, Republicans coming home, Cubans in Florida.

1. There hasn’t been any stark drop off in minority turnout based on the early voting numbers. Minorities always tend to turn out at lower rates than whites, and there is evidence to suggests that gap is narrowing.

2. The majority of the electorate is Democrats and Independents.

3. That is true, but that’s something gijg isolated to a very specific state.

On Florida it also ignores the other major story there being the shift of seniors away from Trump (Which is a much larger demographic then Cubans)

[charcuterie]

NYT Predictions:
WI - Biden +7 (50-43-3-4)
PA - Biden +5 (49-44-2-5)
FL - Biden +2 (48-46-2-4)
AZ-Pres - Biden +5 (49-44-3-4)
AZ-Sen - Kelly +7 (51-44-1-4)

New Selzer Prediction:
IA-Pres - Trump +1 (48-47-2-3)
IA-Sen - Greenfield +1 (48-47-1-4)

Monmouth:
PA - Biden +7 (52-45-1-2)

Where it's (Biden-Trump-Other-Undecided)

[Gass3268]

NYT/Siena polls tomorrow

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1322556095869657088?s=21

[Buzz]

Super Poll Sunday will be living up to the hype.

[Malarkey Decider]

Predictions

DMR: Trump +1, Tie in senate

NBC/WSJ National: Biden +10

NYT AZ: Biden +7
NYT PA: Biden +6
NYT FL: Biden +4
NYT WI: Biden +10

Monmouth PA: Biden +7

[Lief 🗽]

Should presumably also get some CBS/YouGov polls. And hopefully another round of Fox state polls?

[Malarkey Decider]

Are Monmouth and Quinnipiac not doing a final national poll?

[VAR]

And hopefully another round of Fox state polls?

A Texas poll would be great.

[ElectionObserver]

Something to look forward to tomorrow morning with those NYT/Siena polls.

I imagine that Biden will lead in all of them.

Nate Cohn said on Twitter today, in reference to the Muhlenberg College's PA Biden+5, this, ''But I do think the majority of PA polls over the last week or two have shown a subtle shift toward Trump that I don't think we see in the other northern battlegrounds''. To me that suggests that their data also shows a slightly tightening of the race. Their last poll was Biden +7 so we'll probably see Biden around +5 this time. He says they aren't seeing it in other northern states so Wisconsin will probably be quite a strong poll for Biden. Their last was +10 so I'd expect something similar.
Nate hasn't mentioned Arizona or Florida much so there's not much we can take from what he has said/ written.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Meeting Street Insights/CPRNC (R) said in this release that they'd be releasing more results in the coming days:

https://cprnc.org/2020/10/30/democrats-lead-court-contests-council-of-state-races-close/

As I mentioned in the latest thread on them, they've (so far) released results for every statewide race except SoS, Auditor, SOPI,  Insurance Commissioner and the 5 Court of Appeals contests. Annoyingly, 538 isn't tracking any of those.

[TheLaRocca]

I wanna see

(1) ABC/WAPO
(2) Selzer

everything else will just show the same results...low single-digit Biden leads in the swing states and mid-single digits in the PA/MI/WI combo. Along with +8 Biden nationally w/some outliers.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I’m guessing Data For Progress will be releasing a mass of polls sometime for Tuesday like they did for the primaries.

They should do it before the day of the election if they want to Fivey Fox to notice them

[wbrocks67]

ABC/Wapo usually releases Saturday night at midnight, so I assume we're getting that as well

[Gass3268]

The last NYT/Siena polls are gonna be big!

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1322621501695270912?s=20

[Gass3268]

The last NYT/Siena polls are gonna be big!

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1322621501695270912?s=20

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1322629983215489024?s=20

Pretty much where his polls have been all year.

[psychprofessor]

The last NYT/Siena polls are gonna be big!

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1322621501695270912?s=20

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1322629983215489024?s=20

Pretty much where his polls have been all year.

To me this seems like Biden leads in all four polls.

[Buzz]

The last NYT/Siena polls are gonna be big!

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1322621501695270912?s=20

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1322629983215489024?s=20

Pretty much where his polls have been all year.

To me this seems like Biden leads in all four polls.

It’s pretty obvious he will be.  They’ve had him up in these states all year.

[Bootes Void]

So Selzer should come out with a poll over the weekend; just got that ping from the DMR on my computer. If Trump and/or Ernst are leading, that will confirm that Iowa is indeed the next Missouri.

IOWA POLL!

https://twitter.com/brianneDMR/status/1322221986194620417?s=20

The next poll in an hour we should all look forward to

[Buzz]

The Selzer poll deserves all the hype (although wasn’t great in 2018).  Grab a beer or drink, we are tailgating for this 6pm reveal!

[redjohn]

The Selzer poll deserves all the hype (although wasn’t great in 2018).  Grab a beer or drink, we are tailgating for this 6pm reveal!

True. They were spot on with the Democratic caucuses earlier this year though, seems they haven't lost their touch yet.

[Splash]

I forgot about this! It's been a long year...

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1322668130464772097