2020 Poll Hype Thread

[swf541]

My god... sounds like the Siena polls are going to be ugly too.
https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1322690255040978944?s=21

I read it exactly the opposite -- Cohn is saying Biden is doing well in the upper Midwest.

That's exactly what he is saying

[BudgieForce]

That Selzer poll gave me such a fright. Perfect for Halloween. Thanks Ann.  

[forza nocta]

Plz save us ABC/Wapo

[Bootes Void]

My god... sounds like the Siena polls are going to be ugly too.
https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1322690255040978944?s=21

"And this Selzer Iowa poll is off on its own, not just in Iowa but in terms of the overall story. Every national poll has shown doing Biden way ahead of Clinton among white voters / white working class voters. He's excelled across the white, northern tier."

Doesnt sound like its ugly to me.

[LimoLiberal]

Frequent Democratic poster on DailyKos (not a troll that joined this week) is claiming there are at least three unreleased and/or internal live-caller polls that show Trump gaining or leading in the Upper Midwest late this week.

[Ferguson97]

Frequent Democratic poster on DailyKos (not a troll that joined this week) is claiming there are at least three unreleased and/or internal live-caller polls that show Trump gaining or leading in the Upper Midwest late this week.

Well my uncle works for Trafalagar and he says Biden is leading Texas by 5

[BudgieForce]

Frequent Democratic poster on DailyKos (not a troll that joined this week) is claiming there are at least three unreleased and/or internal live-caller polls that show Trump gaining or leading in the Upper Midwest late this week.

We've gotten multiple Republican internals in the past two weeks that show Trump ahead in the Midwest. What of it?

[LimoLiberal]

Frequent Democratic poster on DailyKos (not a troll that joined this week) is claiming there are at least three unreleased and/or internal live-caller polls that show Trump gaining or leading in the Upper Midwest late this week.

Well my uncle works for Trafalagar and he says Biden is leading Texas by 5

[swf541]

Frequent Democratic poster on DailyKos (not a troll that joined this week) is claiming there are at least three unreleased and/or internal live-caller polls that show Trump gaining or leading in the Upper Midwest late this week.

Well my uncle works for Trafalagar and he says Biden is leading Texas by 5

Literally who?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1322704200661389313

[BudgieForce]

Frequent Democratic poster on DailyKos (not a troll that joined this week) is claiming there are at least three unreleased and/or internal live-caller polls that show Trump gaining or leading in the Upper Midwest late this week.

Well my uncle works for Trafalagar and he says Biden is leading Texas by 5

https://i.ibb.co/Vv70f2g/Screen-Shot-2020-10-31-at-8-59-43-PM.png

Literally who?

This guy also doesn't say that they're "unreleased" or "internals".

[Storr]

Frequent Democratic poster on DailyKos (not a troll that joined this week) is claiming there are at least three unreleased and/or internal live-caller polls that show Trump gaining or leading in the Upper Midwest late this week.

Well my uncle works for Trafalagar and he says Biden is leading Texas by 5

Lol they have a furry icon. Also DailyKos: lol

[swf541]

Frequent Democratic poster on DailyKos (not a troll that joined this week) is claiming there are at least three unreleased and/or internal live-caller polls that show Trump gaining or leading in the Upper Midwest late this week.

Well my uncle works for Trafalagar and he says Biden is leading Texas by 5

Lol they have a furry icon. Also DailyKos: lol

Pretty much sums it up

Just yeesh at this forum.  Pretty clear that there is some fundamental issues with the Selzer poll, put it in the average and carry on

[DaleCooper]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1322704200661389313

Nate Silver is no Mapleyy, but his input is appreciated nonetheless.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Al Gore, John Kerry, Mitt Romney (to a lesser extent), and Hillary Clinton were all facing a weak and/or vulnerable opposing candidate, and all were expected to win the presidency. They did not. Make of that what you will.

Over the last two decades, the literally only predictable election was McCain/Obama in 2008. Four out of the last five elections have had some sort of surprises). That’s what I call a pattern. 2020 is unpredictable for a whole host of issues - there will be surprises on election night (and beyond).

What those surprises may be, and who they may benefit, I do not know.

Gore, Kerry, and Romney were all slight underdogs?

Perhaps in hindsight, but at they time they were all slight ‘overdogs’ - Al Gore even more so.

Al Gore was running as the VP under a successful 8 years of Bill Clinton, and a still booming economy of the mid and late 1990s. He was also running against George Bush, who many couldn’t take seriously.

John Kerry was running against an incredibly vulnerable George W. Bush. Bush did well in the public view in the immediate fallout of 9/11, and even for the beginning of the Iraq War. He was able to keep enough support from that 4 years later, but in 2004, Bush was becoming rapidly unpopular - mainly due to how bungle the Iraq War became, and all the controversies of it - ‘Bush lied, people died’was the constant chant. Gitmo, Abu Ghraib, Waterboarding, and allowing Bin Laden to somehow escape from Tara Bora (in December of 2001). The whole macho talk and the Axis of Evil rhetoric didn’t help, further worsened with the image of Bush as a foolish person, all favored John Kerry.....not quite as divisive as Trump (of course), but the left vilified Bush in similar fashion - it was very ugly, and at the time the GWB presidency was believed to be the most partisan and divisive in quite some time. People were genuinely shocked Bush won re-election, in fact Kerry didn’t concede until the afternoon of the following day.

Now onto Mitt Romney - I wrote wayyy to much about GWB (I came of age under GWB, and was quite fond of him, hence the essay), so I’ll keep this one short: The 2012 election of Romney/Obama was expected to be very, very close. Back when Gallup was still reputable, their poll the day before the election had Mitt Romney leading by +1 (at 50% to 49%). Romney, went on to lose, and it wasn’t even close - RCP final averaged poll was Obama +0.7 (at 48.8% to 48.1%), of course Obama won comfortably by 3.9% (!) (final result being 51.1% to 47.2%). That, my friend, says it all.

— for what it’s worth, I was a very ardent support of Romney from 2007 through to 2016, he was the first politician that I discovered on my own, and loved him from the off, so much so that the resulting ‘breakup’ in 2016 was tough for me.

In 20 years, 2008 remains the only predictable election. Biden might win. Trump may lose. I understand the thinking behind that outcome - but regardless who wins, expect some surprises along the way.

[Lief 🗽]

Silver is as scared as the rest of us. You know he’s out of a job if Trump wins again right? He’s trying to calm himself down but you can tell he’s terrified.

[Splash]

Silver is as scared as the rest of us. You know he’s out of a job if Trump wins again right? He’s trying to calm himself down but you can tell he’s terrified.

Nate Silver's mind right now:

[DaleCooper]

Silver is as scared as the rest of us. You know he’s out of a job if Trump wins again right? He’s trying to calm himself down but you can tell he’s terrified.

If he thought Trump was coming back then he'd be the first to say so. He's in the business of forecasting elections, not convincing people that Democrats will win even if they aren't likely to.

[Buzz]

Nate Cohn is scared too.  I’m not changing my NYT poll predictions at all.  They will all show a big Biden lead.

[BudgieForce]

No one is scared. Jesus Christ, we've gone from a polling forum to mental institution in like 2 hours.

[Storr]

No one is scared. Jesus Christ, we've gone from a polling forum to mental institution in like 2 hours.

If this poll was released on a weekday I feel like it would have gotten a whole lot less attention not only on atlas, but overall.

[LimoLiberal]

Dems on Twitter buzzing that there will be ABC/WaPo state results released at midnight that will be “mediocre” for Biden. Hard to say whether it’s credible or not, but apparently this person has had inside info before.

[Bootes Void]

Dems on Twitter buzzing that there will be ABC/WaPo state results released at midnight that will be “mediocre” for Biden. Hard to say whether it’s credible or not, but apparently this person has had inside info before.

Got a link to one of their twitter accounts?

[LimoLiberal]

Dems on Twitter buzzing that there will be ABC/WaPo state results released at midnight that will be “mediocre” for Biden. Hard to say whether it’s credible or not, but apparently this person has had inside info before.

Got a link to one of their twitter accounts?

This and the replies provide more context

https://mobile.twitter.com/ReedForecasts/status/1322711733488726017

[SaneDemocrat]

Dems on Twitter buzzing that there will be ABC/WaPo state results released at midnight that will be “mediocre” for Biden. Hard to say whether it’s credible or not, but apparently this person has had inside info before.

Is medicore Biden+4 or Biden+7. BIG DIFFERENCE OBVIOUSLY