2020 Poll Hype Thread
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Author Topic: 2020 Poll Hype Thread  (Read 193124 times)
Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #1800 on: October 20, 2020, 05:59:22 AM »
Quote from: VARepublican on October 20, 2020, 05:29:33 AM


If she's referring to the Mason-Dixon poll with Trump +17 in KY, it's pretty dismal for Trump considering that he won the state by +30 in 2016. 
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1801 on: October 20, 2020, 06:02:30 AM »
Let's pray there is more decided in GA today.

Last NYT/Siena poll of GA

Biden 45 - Trump 45
Perdue 41 - Ossoff 38
Loeffler 23 - Warnock 19 - Collins 19 - Lieberman 7 - Tarver 4
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VAR
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« Reply #1802 on: October 20, 2020, 06:23:44 AM »
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #1803 on: October 20, 2020, 06:23:59 AM »
For GA:

Trump +2

Purdue +4

Same as wbrocks, except flip Loeffler and Collins.  
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1804 on: October 20, 2020, 06:28:17 AM »
NBC/Marist really gave up, huh?
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Buzz
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« Reply #1805 on: October 20, 2020, 07:09:52 AM »
ECU prediction: Biden +1
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #1806 on: October 20, 2020, 07:20:18 AM »
ECU: Tie
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #1807 on: October 20, 2020, 08:42:39 AM »
ECU: Trump +2
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1808 on: October 20, 2020, 08:45:23 AM »
The last ECU poll had Biden +3 (50-47) but Tillis +1 (47-46)
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #1809 on: October 20, 2020, 08:56:11 AM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on October 20, 2020, 08:45:23 AM
The last ECU poll had Biden +3 (50-47) but Tillis +1 (47-46)

My guess is that was a noise poll, since pretty much every other poll shows Cunningham running even with Biden (at least in terms of margin, and sometimes usually % in polls that push undecideds) at worst, and ahead of Biden at best.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #1810 on: October 20, 2020, 09:34:31 AM »
http://politicaliq.com/2020/10/20/co-biden-51-trump-43/

COSEN poll coming from RMG Research/PoliticalIQ later.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #1811 on: October 20, 2020, 09:58:31 AM »

Nice, but I would prefer to get more senate polls from MT, KS, AK, and those other fringe seats for the Democrats. CO-Sen polling has been extremely consistent for Ds, with basically every poll showing D + 8-10, with that one +14 poll.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #1812 on: October 20, 2020, 10:02:15 AM »
ECU: Biden+3, Cunningham+6
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #1813 on: October 20, 2020, 10:17:03 AM »
ECU is one of the best polls for Republicans in North Carolina. IIRC, they are the only non-partisan poll to show a Tillis lead.
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Donald Trump’s Toupée
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« Reply #1814 on: October 20, 2020, 10:19:03 AM »
National polls are getting ever closer.

Practically all swing states have Trump gaining ground, and are now within margin of error.

Trump is going to win this thing. My confidence is growing ever stronger.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #1815 on: October 20, 2020, 10:21:49 AM »
Quote from: Donald Trump’s Toupée on October 20, 2020, 10:19:03 AM
National polls are getting ever closer.

Practically all swing states have Trump gaining ground, and are now within margin of error.

Trump is going to win this thing. My confidence is growing ever stronger.

Biden+9 gives you confidence?
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Donald Trump’s Toupée
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« Reply #1816 on: October 20, 2020, 10:29:11 AM »
« Edited: October 20, 2020, 12:38:48 PM by Donald Trump’s Toupée »
Quote from: Ferguson97 on October 20, 2020, 10:21:49 AM
Quote from: Donald Trump’s Toupée on October 20, 2020, 10:19:03 AM
National polls are getting ever closer.

Practically all swing states have Trump gaining ground, and are now within margin of error.

Trump is going to win this thing. My confidence is growing ever stronger.

Biden+9 gives you confidence?

Please. You can’t just look at numbers at face value. You need to know how to synthesize and us all the data available.
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redjohn
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« Reply #1817 on: October 20, 2020, 10:29:58 AM »
Quote from: Donald Trump’s Toupée on October 20, 2020, 10:29:11 AM
Quote from: Ferguson97 on October 20, 2020, 10:21:49 AM
Quote from: Donald Trump’s Toupée on October 20, 2020, 10:19:03 AM
National polls are getting ever closer.

Practically all swing states have Trump gaining ground, and are now within margin of error.

Trump is going to win this thing. My confidence is growing ever stronger.

Biden+9 gives you confidence?

Please. You can’t just look at numbers at face value. You need to know how to synthesize and use the data avaiable.

You mean read the numbers in any way that distorts the result to be positive for Trump... anywho. Trump is going to need drastically better numbers in the next two weeks to have a chance at winning.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #1818 on: October 20, 2020, 10:32:36 AM »
Just a useful reminder for all the people out there.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1819 on: October 20, 2020, 10:49:09 AM »
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on October 20, 2020, 10:32:36 AM
Just a useful reminder for all the people out there.



Current 538 averages:

Trump approval: 42.8-53.5 (-10.7)
Trump vs  Biden: 41.9-52.2 (-10.3)

Pretty close to each other.
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Non Swing Voter
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« Reply #1820 on: October 20, 2020, 10:51:11 AM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on October 20, 2020, 10:49:09 AM
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on October 20, 2020, 10:32:36 AM
Just a useful reminder for all the people out there.



Current 538 averages:

Trump approval: 42.8-53.5 (-10.7)
Trump vs  Biden: 41.9-52.2 (-10.3)

Pretty close to each other.

Why is there a big divergence with the RCP averages though?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1821 on: October 20, 2020, 10:52:09 AM »
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on October 20, 2020, 10:51:11 AM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on October 20, 2020, 10:49:09 AM
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on October 20, 2020, 10:32:36 AM
Just a useful reminder for all the people out there.



Current 538 averages:

Trump approval: 42.8-53.5 (-10.7)
Trump vs  Biden: 41.9-52.2 (-10.3)

Pretty close to each other.

Why is there a big divergence with the RCP averages though?

RCP's structure is flawed.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1822 on: October 20, 2020, 10:52:55 AM »
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on October 20, 2020, 10:51:11 AM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on October 20, 2020, 10:49:09 AM
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on October 20, 2020, 10:32:36 AM
Just a useful reminder for all the people out there.



Current 538 averages:

Trump approval: 42.8-53.5 (-10.7)
Trump vs  Biden: 41.9-52.2 (-10.3)

Pretty close to each other.

Why is there a big divergence with the RCP averages though?

Because RCP's averages use a strange and non-transparent methodology.  Nate Silver just had a tweet about this (talking about PA specifically, but it applies to RCP in general):
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Landslide Lyndon
px75
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« Reply #1823 on: October 20, 2020, 10:58:36 AM »
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on October 20, 2020, 10:51:11 AM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on October 20, 2020, 10:49:09 AM
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on October 20, 2020, 10:32:36 AM
Just a useful reminder for all the people out there.



Current 538 averages:

Trump approval: 42.8-53.5 (-10.7)
Trump vs  Biden: 41.9-52.2 (-10.3)

Pretty close to each other.

Why is there a big divergence with the RCP averages though?

Because RCP cherry-picks which polls uses in their averages. For example, they included the Dornsife poll in 2016, when it was one of Trump's best, but they aren't including it this year, when it's one of Trump's worst.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #1824 on: October 20, 2020, 11:48:42 AM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on October 20, 2020, 10:49:09 AM
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on October 20, 2020, 10:32:36 AM
Just a useful reminder for all the people out there.



Current 538 averages:

Trump approval: 42.8-53.5 (-10.7)
Trump vs  Biden: 41.9-52.2 (-10.3)

Pretty close to each other.

43-44 is what I bet on Trump getting at the end of the day. The big question is how much over 50 can Biden get.
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