2020 Poll Hype Thread

[It’s so Joever]

My guess is GA Trump+1.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/1318293236432183298

[Rep Jessica]

https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/1318293236432183298

+3 Trump

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/1318293236432183298

Memerson? Anywhere from Biden+3 to Trump+8

[Buzz]

Trump +2 on that Emerson poll is the official Buzz prediction!

[ProgressiveModerate]

Probably a narrow Trump lead, but Emerson had been very unpredictable.

[wbrocks67]

Nate posted the schedule tonight

National - Tues @ 5am
Georgia - Tues @ 1pm
Iowa/Kansas/Montana - Thursday (he said "before debate" so I'm assuming Thurs @ 1pm)

[redjohn]

If the NYT national poll has more or the same % of third-party/undecided as last time (10%) it'll be a little ridiculous. They've received a lot of criticism over not pushing undecideds so hopefully they push a little more.

[WD]

NYT national poll prediction:

41 Biden
30 Trump

[ProgressiveModerate]

If the NYT national poll has more or the same % of third-party/undecided as last time (10%) it'll be a little ridiculous. They've received a lot of criticism over not pushing undecideds so hopefully they push a little more.

Honestly, the undecided problem is more of an issue downballot for me, especially since this may very well be the last high quality polls of MT and KS senate before the election. They tend to have like 8-10% on the Presidential level which isn't ideal but acceptable, whereas in the senate races their undecides tend to be more like 16% which is just unacceptable.

[Ferguson97]

NYT Prediction
National: Biden+9
Georgia: Biden+1 / Warnock+7 / Purdue+1

Iowa: Tied / Greenfield+3
Kansas: Trump+12 / Marshall+1
Montana: Trump+8 / Tied (Senate)

[KaiserDave]

Bring back the live polls!

[Buzz]

NYT Predictions:

National: Biden +11
Georgia: Biden +2

[Lief 🗽]

Predictions:

National: Biden +4
Georgia: Trump +1

[Non Swing Voter]

https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-narrowly-leads-donald-trump-new-texas-presidential-poll-1540443

[forza nocta]

NYT: Biden 50-44

[LimoLiberal]

*Guess*

NYT: Biden 50-42

[Horus]

Nat - Biden +4
Georgia - Trump +3

[Devout Centrist]

Trump +1

"Dems panic as Trump rebounds from October slump"

[TheLaRocca]

National: Biden +8
Georgia: Biden +1

[Gass3268]

- NYT/Siena's last national poll was released right before the debate and was 49-40-2-1-7.
- It's clear that Biden has gained a few points since the debate and really hasn't shown any sign of losing ground.
- They seems to lean about 1-2 points towards Biden compared to the average.
- The average is about 8.9 on RCP and 10.7 on 538. This averages to 10 point lead for Biden with rounding.
- They also seem to have higher undecideds than other pollsters, but I'm going to say that the undecideds drop to 5 points.

My guess:

Biden 51%
Trump 40%
Jorgenson 2%
Hawkins 1%
Undecideds 5%

[wbrocks67]

If the NYT national poll has more or the same % of third-party/undecided as last time (10%) it'll be a little ridiculous. They've received a lot of criticism over not pushing undecideds so hopefully they push a little more.

9%. But still ridiculous.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

If the NYT national poll has more or the same % of third-party/undecided as last time (10%) it'll be a little ridiculous. They've received a lot of criticism over not pushing undecideds so hopefully they push a little more.

9%. But still ridiculous.

As skbl explained to me, it's actually more like 3% third-party and 6% undecided.  That's still high for the undecideds, but it makes it's more reasonable than 9-10%. 

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/MeganYocumTV/status/1318496801327140864

[Stuart98]

Water is wet. Incredible!