2020 Poll Hype Thread
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Author Topic: 2020 Poll Hype Thread  (Read 193035 times)
Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #1900 on: October 22, 2020, 10:31:34 AM »
Q national poll after more than a month.
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VAR
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« Reply #1901 on: October 22, 2020, 10:33:14 AM »
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1902 on: October 22, 2020, 10:36:20 AM »
Quote from: Electoral Titan Kim Reynolds on October 22, 2020, 10:33:14 AM


Nice, just in time for the NYT/Siena poll tomorrow too Smiley
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #1903 on: October 22, 2020, 10:38:10 AM »
Quote from: Electoral Titan Kim Reynolds on October 22, 2020, 10:33:14 AM


"But...it's almost noon--oh, right.  Mountain time."
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Stuart98
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« Reply #1904 on: October 22, 2020, 12:30:42 PM »
Quote from: Pollster on October 22, 2020, 09:37:46 AM
OurProgress teasing a Mississippi poll released October 25 and a Montana poll released October 26.
Really excited for Mississippi, Espy's been running a great campaign and there's been basically no good polls there.
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VAR
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« Reply #1905 on: October 22, 2020, 12:31:18 PM »
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on October 22, 2020, 10:31:34 AM
Q national poll after more than a month.



I like Quinnipiac’s national polls.
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1906 on: October 22, 2020, 12:32:18 PM »
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Non Swing Voter
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« Reply #1907 on: October 22, 2020, 12:34:05 PM »
I sometimes wonder if these wild swings in places like Iowa and Ohio are because the voters there really want to remain a battleground state to maintain national importance.
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TopShelfGoal
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« Reply #1908 on: October 22, 2020, 12:36:42 PM »
Are we getting an Ann Selzer poll in IA or anywhere else for that matter?
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #1909 on: October 22, 2020, 12:46:40 PM »
Quote from: TopShelfGoal on October 22, 2020, 12:36:42 PM
Are we getting an Ann Selzer poll in IA or anywhere else for that matter?

Probably the last Saturday before the election.
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redjohn
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« Reply #1910 on: October 22, 2020, 04:28:52 PM »


Not sure if the October poll he's referring to is the one currently being taken, or the one from Sept-Oct at the very beginning of the month. Still, these are obviously pretty bad trends for Trump in WI.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1911 on: October 22, 2020, 04:39:11 PM »
Quote from: Beida on October 22, 2020, 04:28:52 PM


Not sure if the October poll he's referring to is the one currently being taken, or the one from Sept-Oct at the very beginning of the month. Still, these are obviously pretty bad trends for Trump in WI.

I don't think they are going into the field until after the debate.
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redjohn
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« Reply #1912 on: October 22, 2020, 04:41:22 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 22, 2020, 04:39:11 PM
Quote from: Beida on October 22, 2020, 04:28:52 PM


Not sure if the October poll he's referring to is the one currently being taken, or the one from Sept-Oct at the very beginning of the month. Still, these are obviously pretty bad trends for Trump in WI.

I don't think they are going into the field until after the debate.

Nope, seems they're currently in the field (surprisingly).



Not sure why they're starting so early, but they normally finish up their polls several days before release.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #1913 on: October 22, 2020, 05:15:26 PM »
What's the point of being a gold standard poll if your last poll is done like a week and a half before election day??
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redjohn
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« Reply #1914 on: October 22, 2020, 05:20:40 PM »
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on October 22, 2020, 05:15:26 PM
What's the point of being a gold standard poll if your last poll is done like a week and a half before election day??

Their last poll in 2016 also ended a week and a half before election day, and they ended up not at all catching Trump's final surge. I'm also surprised they're not taking the poll closer to election day.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #1915 on: October 22, 2020, 05:50:17 PM »
RMG/PoliticalIQ poll of IASEN coming tomorrow: http://politicaliq.com/2020/10/22/ia-toss-up-trump-47-biden-47/
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #1916 on: October 23, 2020, 07:30:31 AM »

Nice! I doubt UT will flip, but it'll definately be interesting to see how the margin is considering Trump is probably the worst Republican for the state and Biden is a decent fit for a Democrat. There's also some other longer term trends working in Ds favor in UT, such as the fact that Mormon's are making up a smaller and smaller (though still a very large) chunk of the population, and UT is a more urban state
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VAR
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« Reply #1917 on: October 23, 2020, 07:32:29 AM »
Quote from: ProgressiveModerate on October 23, 2020, 07:30:31 AM

Nice! I doubt UT will flip, but it'll definately be interesting to see how the margin is considering Trump is probably the worst Republican for the state and Biden is a decent fit for a Democrat. There's also some other longer term trends working in Ds favor in UT, such as the fact that Mormon's are making up a smaller and smaller (though still a very large) chunk of the population, and UT is a more urban state

Sorry, I think that’s the old poll
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #1918 on: October 23, 2020, 07:34:45 AM »
Quote from: Electoral Titan Kim Reynolds on October 23, 2020, 07:32:29 AM
Quote from: ProgressiveModerate on October 23, 2020, 07:30:31 AM

Nice! I doubt UT will flip, but it'll definately be interesting to see how the margin is considering Trump is probably the worst Republican for the state and Biden is a decent fit for a Democrat. There's also some other longer term trends working in Ds favor in UT, such as the fact that Mormon's are making up a smaller and smaller (though still a very large) chunk of the population, and UT is a more urban state

Sorry, I think that’s the old poll

I was so excited...
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Skye
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« Reply #1919 on: October 23, 2020, 08:19:04 AM »
TX is next in line:
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #1920 on: October 23, 2020, 08:24:20 AM »
Quote from: Skye on October 23, 2020, 08:19:04 AM
TX is next in line:



I’m thinking Trump + 3, 47-44, with Cornyn up 6 45-39 in the senate race. NYT polls have had a lot of undecideds and are a bit favorable to Rs overall. At least we’ll be getting a “high quality” poll of TX
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Buzz
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« Reply #1921 on: October 23, 2020, 08:26:53 AM »
Quote from: ProgressiveModerate on October 23, 2020, 08:24:20 AM
Quote from: Skye on October 23, 2020, 08:19:04 AM
TX is next in line:



I’m thinking Trump + 3, 47-44, with Cornyn up 6 45-39 in the senate race. NYT polls have had a lot of undecideds and are a bit favorable to Rs overall. At least we’ll be getting a “high quality” poll of TX
NYT polls are not favorable to R’s lol
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #1922 on: October 23, 2020, 08:29:57 AM »
Quote from: Buzz on October 23, 2020, 08:26:53 AM
Quote from: ProgressiveModerate on October 23, 2020, 08:24:20 AM
Quote from: Skye on October 23, 2020, 08:19:04 AM
TX is next in line:



I’m thinking Trump + 3, 47-44, with Cornyn up 6 45-39 in the senate race. NYT polls have had a lot of undecideds and are a bit favorable to Rs overall. At least we’ll be getting a “high quality” poll of TX
NYT polls are not favorable to R’s lol

Relative to other polls it seems like they have been this cycle, but maybe that’s just the high number of undecides. TBF though, they have released some polls that seem favorable to Trump and others that seem favorable to Biden, I think the high number of undecides is just messing with my head
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #1923 on: October 23, 2020, 08:47:23 AM »
I expect NYT to heavily overestimate Republicans among Hispanics like they did in their 2018 polls here. “Hurd and Cruz are running very well in a district carried by Hillary Clinton...”
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kph14
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« Reply #1924 on: October 23, 2020, 08:50:01 AM »
Quote from: Buzz on October 23, 2020, 08:26:53 AM
Quote from: ProgressiveModerate on October 23, 2020, 08:24:20 AM
Quote from: Skye on October 23, 2020, 08:19:04 AM
TX is next in line:



I’m thinking Trump + 3, 47-44, with Cornyn up 6 45-39 in the senate race. NYT polls have had a lot of undecideds and are a bit favorable to Rs overall. At least we’ll be getting a “high quality” poll of TX
NYT polls are not favorable to R’s lol

They actually overestimated R's in 2018. One relevant example: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-txsen-2.html
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