2020 Poll Hype Thread

[2016]

Monmonth National coming out TODAY
https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1226527055371784193

[Tender Branson]

Another national poll today by Quinnipiac:

https://twitter.com/quinnipiacpoll/status/1226899878107725824

It seems they are not releasing a final NH poll.

[2016]

Another national poll today by Quinnipiac:

https://twitter.com/quinnipiacpoll/status/1226899878107725824

It seems they are not releasing a final NH poll.

We've enough NH Polls out I think. National Polls are interesting especially now after Iowa. My bet is that Sanders is leading or is tied with Biden. Also, both of these Polls will be "Qualifying Polls" and may get Bloomberg into the Nevada Debate.

[Tender Branson]

Another national poll today by Quinnipiac:

https://twitter.com/quinnipiacpoll/status/1226899878107725824
It seems they are not releasing a final NH poll.

We've enough NH Polls out I think. National Polls are interesting especially now after Iowa. My bet is that Sanders is leading or is tied with Biden. Also, both of these Polls will be "Qualifying Polls" and may get Bloomberg into the Nevada Debate.

Bloomberg has just 1/4 necessary polls so far, so even if he scores in both today, he needs another one.

[Gracile]

We really need high-quality NV and SC polls. It would be interesting to see how the race in those states has changed post-Iowa.

[Sorenroy]

We really need high-quality NV and SC polls. It would be interesting to see how the race in those states has changed post-Iowa.

Hopefully there are some in the field right now that are wrapping up. We'll definitely be getting more polls from the two states, but it's looking increasingly likely that we will only see post New Hampshire numbers from them.

I mean, come on. Since Iowa, we've only gotten two sets on non-New Hampshire polls. One set of one day Morning Consult national polls and one North Carolina poll from Public Policy Polling. I know that New Hampshire is the most immediately important, but is there really no value in learning how states like Texas or South Carolina reacted to Biden's underperformance?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

We really need high-quality NV and SC polls. It would be interesting to see how the race in those states has changed post-Iowa.

Hopefully there are some in the field right now that are wrapping up. We'll definitely be getting more polls from the two states, but it's looking increasingly likely that we will only see post New Hampshire numbers from them.

I mean, come on. Since Iowa, we've only gotten two sets on non-New Hampshire polls. One set of one day Morning Consult national polls and one North Carolina poll from Public Policy Polling. I know that New Hampshire is the most immediately important, but is there really no value in learning how states like Texas or South Carolina reacted to Biden's underperformance?

Does it happen each election?

I've read that NH results are so important (bounce) that it is only worth to poll days after you get results from NH. It sonds plausible to me, but I don't know if it is how it is works.

[2016]

We really need high-quality NV and SC polls. It would be interesting to see how the race in those states has changed post-Iowa.

Hopefully there are some in the field right now that are wrapping up. We'll definitely be getting more polls from the two states, but it's looking increasingly likely that we will only see post New Hampshire numbers from them.

I mean, come on. Since Iowa, we've only gotten two sets on non-New Hampshire polls. One set of one day Morning Consult national polls and one North Carolina poll from Public Policy Polling. I know that New Hampshire is the most immediately important, but is there really no value in learning how states like Texas or South Carolina reacted to Biden's underperformance?

Does it happen each election?

I've read that NH results are so important (bounce) that it is only worth to poll days after you get results from NH. It sonds plausible to me, but I don't know if it is how it is works.

TBH, I think the Bounce you'll get out of NH is meaningless. Why?
It's 11 Days between NH and NV so by the time you get to NV the bounce likely fades. That happened to Bernie Sanders in 2016. He won big in NH but by the time he got to NV the bounce he got out of NH faded.
Bounces are much more meaningful between IA and NH.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

We really need high-quality NV and SC polls. It would be interesting to see how the race in those states has changed post-Iowa.

Hopefully there are some in the field right now that are wrapping up. We'll definitely be getting more polls from the two states, but it's looking increasingly likely that we will only see post New Hampshire numbers from them.

I mean, come on. Since Iowa, we've only gotten two sets on non-New Hampshire polls. One set of one day Morning Consult national polls and one North Carolina poll from Public Policy Polling. I know that New Hampshire is the most immediately important, but is there really no value in learning how states like Texas or South Carolina reacted to Biden's underperformance?

Does it happen each election?

I've read that NH results are so important (bounce) that it is only worth to poll days after you get results from NH. It sonds plausible to me, but I don't know if it is how it is works.

TBH, I think the Bounce you'll get out of NH is meaningless. Why?
It's 11 Days between NH and NV so by the time you get to NV the bounce likely fades. That happened to Bernie Sanders in 2016. He won big in NH but by the time he got to NV the bounce he got out of NH faded.
Bounces are much more meaningful between IA and NH.

But it was 2-way race in 2016, and Bernie never had a chance, actually. Now we have a lot candidates/lanes with a lot of soft support.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ElectionsCenter/status/1226941216526344195

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/ElectionsCenter/status/1226941216526344195

The first poll will be fielded in all three states in February immediately following the New Hampshire primary. Another will be conducted before the national party conventions (in July and August) take place; and a final poll will be taken after the conventions, during the general election campaign.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Monmonth National coming out TODAY
https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1226527055371784193

And today Democratic Primaries and head2heads.


https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1226999983024623616


Interesting if it confirms Bloomberg being MOE-closed to Biden.

[redjohn]

Any word on when we're getting a good poll of NV? We really don't know the state of the race there.

[pbrower2a]

Nevada is tough to poll. It has lots of voters who prefer not to be contacted in English (responding in Spanish is one way to rid oneself of junk calls in English). That itself makes Nevada look closer for Republicans than it is even if the demographics are now horrid for Republicans. 

[tagimaucia]

Any word on when we're getting a good poll of NV? We really don't know the state of the race there.

Someone from Data for Progress said on twitter that they're polling Nevada

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

The Nevada Independent will *not* be sponsoring a poll of the caucus.

https://twitter.com/ralstonreports/status/1227701850742370308?s=21

[Holmes]

Data Progress is polling Nevada right now.

[2016]

Data Progress is polling Nevada right now.

I'm guessing NBC/Marist will poll Nevada too AHEAD of their Debate next Wednesday.
FOX NEWS is also a possibility; CBS/YouGov and CNN/ssrs as well.

[Gass3268]

Data Progress is polling Nevada right now.

They were very good in IA and NH. Hopefully they are able do do another after the debate however.

[Donerail]

Winthrop is polling SC

https://twitter.com/HuffmonPolitics/status/1228024042843770886

[Lisa's voting Biden]

We will be getting a Georgia primary poll tonight at 6 PM EST from WSB-TV and Landmark Communications (B from 538). Their last poll, conducted in September of 2019, had Biden up 24.

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1228065733571235840?s=20

[Former Crackhead Mike Lindell]

We will be getting a Georgia primary poll tonight from WSB-TV and Landmark Communications

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1228065733571235840?s=20

PREDICTIONS??

18% Bloomberg
16% Sanders
13% Biden
8% Klobuchar
6% Buttigieg

[ElectionsGuy]

We will be getting a Georgia primary poll tonight at 6 PM EST from WSB-TV and Landmark Communications:

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1228065733571235840?s=20

Nice, let's see how Biden's southern firewall is holding up.

[2016]

We will be getting a Georgia primary poll tonight at 6 PM EST from WSB-TV and Landmark Communications:

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1228065733571235840?s=20

This is HUGE. May give us some clues how Biden's supposed AA Firewall is holding up.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/evanasmith/status/1228095868429049856