2020 Poll Hype Thread

[Hollywood]

Does anyone seriously believe that an independent pollster would not release a poll because they are somehow trying to harm a candidate? Polls don't decide the actual results of an election and I'm not even sure they effect turnout. Some of the responses to this poll being canceled are legitimately crazy.

Thank you.

No.  This is CNN.  The poll was bad for establishment candidates so they junked the poll.  CNN just didn't want to give free promotion to Bernie Sanders.  

Just stop.

No.  Release the poll.  Stop citing establishment warhawks.  CNN not releasing the poll makes sense.  The DNC is trying to cheat Sanders with rule changes, and CNN is once again cheating Sanders supporters by not releasing the poll.  They need to be transparent.  Show us the results.  They hyped it all day and now they just suddenly decided not release the results.  It's frig'n fraud.  Maybe you're comfortable with it, but I am not.  

Dude, chill.

Okay.  Just took a hit.  I'm chill now.  Thanks.

[NOVA Green]

So any updates as to if they will eventually release a poll at all, or if basically we have a few low quality polls to tide us over until we get the Caucus "entrance polls" come Monday PM?

[Xing]

Shoot, so I guess we’re going in pretty much blind, then.

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile for entertainment value while we are waiting....

The 2020 Poll Hype Thread is a good title, and the IA poll release failed miserably (For as yet not totally understood reasons).

While we await future polls. here is a hip-song from the legendary Public Enemy: "Don't Believe the Hype"

[ON Progressive]

Did that operator use Wingdings font?

It sounds more like there was a more serious problem with their survey form. Maybe they had switched machines since their last poll; maybe they were using different software; maybe they upgraded to Windows 10. There are a lot of plausible causes.

I was joking...

In all seriousness though, I do think you're right. My thinking is human error (accidentally expanded the font too large for their screen, but didn't fix it because of feeling under pressure or something), but it could be a ton of things for sure.

[Hollywood]

Did that operator use Wingdings font?

It sounds more like there was a more serious problem with their survey form. Maybe they had switched machines since their last poll; maybe they were using different software; maybe they upgraded to Windows 10. There are a lot of plausible causes.

Maybe they would have all told us if they wanted to be honest.  Maybe they would have devoted 10 minutes to the issues and shown us the the question in printed if they wanted to be transparent.  Oh well.  I guess we can just assume that Bernie kicked butt.  CNN had the audacity to give us "theoretical" blue balls all day, and most people on here seem okay with it.  

[Pericles]

Maybe Pete just screwed Amy out of an Iowa upset.

[Florida Man for Crime]

https://twitter.com/PollsterPatrick/status/1223802157822021634

Why don't they let Selzer look into what was wrong?

#LetSelzerCheckThePoll

[Hollywood]

Shoot, so I guess we’re going in pretty much blind, then.

Let me be seeing-eye-dog.  Bernie is winning by over 30 points.  Ruff Ruff.  

[All Along The Watchtower]

Shoot, so I guess we’re going in pretty much blind, then.

Maybe that's not such a bad thing for caucusgoers. They (and all of us for that matter) need to get the preconceived notions of who's up or down in the tedious media-driven horse race out of their heads and make a more genuinely informed decision!

[GeorgiaModerate]

I guess this is one way in which live interview polls aren't superior.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Maybe Pete just screwed Amy out of an Iowa upset.

Could be. The candidates that stood most to benefit seemed to be Klobuchar (who has been surging in other polls) and Bernie (who led the last DMR poll and has also seemed to be surging in other polls).

The candidates that stood the most to lose were Buttigieg and Warren, both of whom seemed to be losing momentum and shedding support.

[Florida Man for Crime]

So any updates as to if they will eventually release a poll at all, or if basically we have a few low quality polls to tide us over until we get the Caucus "entrance polls" come Monday PM?

I'm Wolf Blitzer and this is election night in the first in the nation Iowa Caucuses!

Oh, and wait.. the control room says. Wait, I'm sorry, the entrance polls are canceled. Bernie is leading by too much in them. No entrance poll this year.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Grynbaum is a warhawk, establishment Biden supporter.  
https://twitter.com/grynbaum/status/1178390034128523265?lang=en

This is not about Buttigieg.  This about Biden.  Biden is getting a$$ kicked by Sanders.

For those who don't click links, the "warhawk establishment Biden supporter" tweet is the Biden campaign's letter asking networks to stop bringing on Rudy Giuliani.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Calm down, guys. It looks like this was a genuine screw-up by DMR and CNN, not an anti-Bernie/Mayor Pete-led conspiracy (as tempting as this might be to believe). We might have dodged a bullet.

[Cinemark]

Maybe Pete just screwed Amy out of an Iowa upset.

Could be. The candidates that stood most to benefit seemed to be Klobuchar (who has been surging in other polls) and Bernie (who led the last DMR poll and has also seemed to be surging in other polls).

The candidates that stood the most to lose were Buttigieg and Warren, both of whom seemed to be losing momentum and shedding support.

On the other hand, Emerson has shown some very good numbers for Klobuchar this cycle. While I find their methodology to be lacking, I fully expect them(along with YouGov) to fill the oxygen taken up by the missing Selzer poll. If either have good numbers for Klobuchar(or any candidate for that matter), I assume the same effect could happen.

[JerryArkansas]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/1223807687047159808

And it is confirmed.  It was a mistake on the pollsters part.  And it affected every candidate just the same.  It just so happened that it affect a Pete supporter who called and pointed out the problem.

[Florida Man for Crime]

On the other hand, Emerson has shown some very good numbers for Klobuchar this cycle. While I find their methodology to be lacking, I fully expect them(along with YouGov) to fill the oxygen taken up by the missing Selzer poll. If either have good numbers for Klobuchar(or any candidate for that matter), I assume the same effect could happen.

Actually, Buttigieg was 2nd in the most recent Emerson Iowa poll... which is just about the best result that Buttigieg has gotten recently.

Awfully convenient for Buttigieg.

[Gass3268]

I'm terrified that the new reporting app that the Iowa Democrats are going to use on caucus night is going to crash.

[JerryArkansas]

I'm terrified that the new reporting app that the Iowa Democrats are going to use on caucus night is going to crash.

Oh it is going to.  No way it doesn't.  At this point the election gods just want to  with everyone.

[Florida Man for Crime]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/1223807687047159808

And it is confirmed.  It was a mistake on the pollsters part.  And it affected every candidate just the same.  It just so happened that it affect a Pete supporter who called and pointed out the problem.

I can totally believe that is the case.

However, they could have fixed the issue. If nothing else, one would have thought that they could make more calls tonight if they needed to throw out the calls from that one interviewer - remember this was only canceled at 8 CST, so they could have had 2-3 hours of calling. In practice probably quite a bit more, because I am betting they had quite a bit of advance notice about this.

- edit - sure, that would have meant they couldn't have released it on schedule, but why could they not have released it late (other than embarrassment - to which I say, get over yourselves)?

[Cinemark]

On the other hand, Emerson has shown some very good numbers for Klobuchar this cycle. While I find their methodology to be lacking, I fully expect them(along with YouGov) to fill the oxygen taken up by the missing Selzer poll. If either have good numbers for Klobuchar(or any candidate for that matter), I assume the same effect could happen.

Actually, Buttigieg was 2nd in the most recent Emerson Iowa poll... which is just about the best result that Buttigieg has gotten recently.

Awfully convenient for Buttigieg.

Nope, Buttigieg was 5th in the last Emerson poll.

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/iowa-2020-sanders-solidifies-frontrunner-status-in-iowa-while-klobuchar-nears-viability

Side note, Emerson was closer to the final results in the 2016 Republican Iowa Caucus than Selzer. They did underestimate Sanders by alot though. And completely missed Ben Carson in forth.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Nope, Buttigieg was 5th in the last Emerson poll.

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/iowa-2020-sanders-solidifies-frontrunner-status-in-iowa-while-klobuchar-nears-viability

Side note, Emerson was closer to the final results in the 2016 Republican Iowa Caucus than Selzer. They did underestimate Sanders by alot though.

Ah, you are right. I was accidentally looking at the Emerson NH poll, which weirdly had Buttigieg in 2nd, rather than their IA poll.

[Hollywood]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/1223807687047159808

And it is confirmed.  It was a mistake on the pollsters part.  And it affected every candidate just the same.  It just so happened that it affect a Pete supporter who called and pointed out the problem.

A font error?  Listen to yourself.  You sound F-ing crazy.  

How did Pete supporters point out the problem?  They were given the poll?  Was Bernie given the poll?  Was every candidate given the poll?  What size was the font?  Can the Bernie supporters provide us a copy of the poll questions/analysis with larger font?  Nobody testing the screen? 

This doesn't end anything.  It's only begets more questions.  

[Smash255]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/1223807687047159808

And it is confirmed.  It was a mistake on the pollsters part.  And it affected every candidate just the same.  It just so happened that it affect a Pete supporter who called and pointed out the problem.

A font error?  Listen to yourself.  You sound F-ing crazy.  

How did Pete supporters point out the problem?  They were given the poll?  Was Bernie given the poll?  Was every candidate given the poll?  What size was the font?  Can the Bernie supporters provide us a copy of the poll questions/analysis with larger font?  Nobody testing the screen? 

This doesn't end anything.  It's only begets more questions.  

Not everything is a grand conspiracy, this isn't Trumpworld.

It appears that a Pete supporter contacted the pollster when his name was left off a polls.  They researched on their end when the issue was brought up an found the issue with the font size, but were unable to determine how many or which specific interviews were impacted/