KY-SEN: Amy McGrath in

[Roll Roons]

For anyone frustrated by what will likely be an uncertain results tonight for the KY-DEM-PRIM, and possibly even longer as a result of a dramatic growth in Vote-By-Mail combined with much smaller # of precincts in the largest counties (although apparently efficiently run).

We are looking at potentially record total turnout for a KY PRIM, where neither national party has a competitive Presidential Race....

As an Oregonian used to Vote-by-Mail, I tend to prefer my elections like a smooth "creeper wine", or possibly a good Canadian "sipping Bourbon", or possibly even like a really good intense and intimate romantic physical encounter....

Let the results build up slowly, hit a mid point of dramatic tension with a final peak, and then gradually the blood pressure slows down and the euphoric high kicks in, and then the gradual downhill climb from the Mountain, with still potential suspense and uncertainty hovering in the air....

This will be the new norm in America, and although we might not always get our immediate gratification, I would rather go with a long and slow roll versus the final "Firework Finale" getting shot off 5 Minutes into the experience....

F**k that hard. One day, fine, but the country's vote counting should not be like California where we have to wait a month for results to slowly trickle in. I do support mail in voting when done right, but not when it's done like that. At least Colorado is usually able to call races on election night. Be like them.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I'm used to slow & delayed results, but God is it confusing tonight. At least California has the excuse of making sure "every person who voted is counted" and gives daily voting updates. But no absentee results until the weekend?

I almost think it'd be more prudent to just lock this thread, a mod updates the votes as they come in tonight & regroup next week

[Xing]

I get that it’s frustrating to have to wait for results, and in an ideal world, we’d have very high turnout and get our results quickly and accurately. However, I would much rather wait for results than not make voting safe or sacrifice accuracy.

[Escape Pod Zero]

BTW,
The last time a Democratic Senate Candidate backed by the DSCC (Democratic Senate Campaign Committee) lost the Primary was then switched to Democrat Senator Arlen Specter in 2010 who lost to Joe Sestak who then lost to Pat Toomey in the General Election.

That same year Elaine Marshall beat the DSCC backed Cal Cunningham.

[DINGO Joe]

If McGrath is still leading at the end of the night, she'll almost certainly win due to an advantage in mail-in ballots (Booker's surge didn't come until pretty late). Even if she's losing narrowly, she'll probably win after all the ballots come in.

Booker would probably want to be closer than within 12 points by now. Because while he will likely win Jessamine County, it probably isn't gonna be a blowout there big enough to make up for losing the rest of the state.

Do we have any idea of how many ballots were cast by day by county?

We really don't know buttsquat, especially on a county by county level  It's not a state accustomed to doing this and it doesn't have the statistical data that you usually get in state's with aggressive VbM and/or early voting programs.

I ain't touching this with a ten thousand foot pole.

[NOVA Green]

So we still have some big looking Counties out there in terms of RAW Votes:

Christian County (41 Precincts)
Henderson County (45 Precincts)
Warren County   (88 Precincts)
Hardin County   (59 Precincts)
Campbell County (67 Precincts)
Franklin County (44 Precincts)


etc....

We also have some significant precincts in SE and NE KY, which don't necessarily show tons of DEM-SEN PRIM Votes yet....

Any ideas about these Counties?

So Henderson came in as narrow McGrath...

Nothing out of any of the others...

Madison County (Not on the list) just came in with 45/45 precincts and only like a few dozen DEM SEN ballots?

Pike County obviously might be interesting in SE KY....

[W]

These are curious results so far. Obviously not too much to read into just based on the data we have right now and the lack of Jefferson county for several days but this is a pretty decent opening lead for McGrath. Boone as barely McGrath and Kenton as pretty solid Booker county is a bit surprising for me at least.

[DINGO Joe]

I'm using the WaPo site.  Four counties have reported more votes than cast in 2016 primary which means the probably are reporting most early and election day voting.  They are Mason, Bath, Montgomery, and Woodford.  The latter three are in the Lexington district and Mason is just outside.  McGrath is winning those 50-30.  Not enough info to project anything yet.

[n1240]

https://twitter.com/KySportsRadio/status/1275614839524798464

[NOVA Green]

I was just going to post that KY, even in smaller rural counties are counting ballots slower than a short-neck Kentucky Turtle...

Speaking of which McConnell is currently at 73,210 Votes (87.2% of Republican Primary Votes)...

Naturally in honor of the slow rate of counting... and sincere apologies for anyone who perceives as derailing an extremely slow thread (normally don't do stuff like this on election Night)...

Rocky Horror Picture Show: Let's Do the Timewarp Again

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/KySportsRadio/status/1275614839524798464

Whelp... on queue.

Might we have a race on our hands???

[NOVA Green]

So my understanding is that the current KY VbM law allows ballots postmarked today (6/23) to be counted so long as they are received by 6/27?

This is a bit more like a California style gig than an Oregon gig, but naturally, could well make a difference in a close election, considering that Booker really didn't start to surge until a few weeks back...

[n1240]

I'm using the WaPo site.  Four counties have reported more votes than cast in 2016 primary which means the probably are reporting most early and election day voting.  They are Mason, Bath, Montgomery, and Woodford.  The latter three are in the Lexington district and Mason is just outside.  McGrath is winning those 50-30.  Not enough info to project anything yet.

These are the counties I consider "done":

Bath (McGrath+28)
Carter (McGrath+29)
Casey (McGrath+36)
Fleming (McGrath+44)
Hopkins (McGrath+25)
Lincoln (McGrath+24)
Mason (McGrath+10)
Montgomery (McGrath+18)
Pulaski (McGrath+20)
Taylor (McGrath+8)

No real geographical consistency and still no clue on the absentee/eday splits.

[n1240]

https://twitter.com/KySportsRadio/status/1275614839524798464

Whelp... on queue.

Might we have a race on our hands???

Absentees in Jefferson and Fayette will remain big question mark. I'd think Booker can win these but won't nearly match the margins in received today. McGrath should be able to rack up solid margins in the numerous mid-sized counties, might try and produce some rough estimates with what is currently known.

[W]

https://twitter.com/KySportsRadio/status/1275614839524798464

Hearsay until proven otherwise. Don't give me hope!

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/MichaelDuncan/status/1275593821099905025

Some cause for optimism for Booker's campaign?

[anthonyjg]

https://twitter.com/MichaelDuncan/status/1275593821099905025

Some cause for optimism for Booker's campaign?

Eh, no reason to use resources over the next week when the future of her campaign is unknown.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/KySportsRadio/status/1275614839524798464

Hearsay until proven otherwise. Don't give me hope!

I mean it's good for Booker, but this is like the grains of Salt tweeted out before Polls close. We know Booker dominated the precinct, but what about the large uncounted Early vote? Or the rest of the vote in the 30ish counties that have reported nothing, and the many more without their early vote. In truth, we only know when the count gets serious in a few days.

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/MichaelDuncan/status/1275593821099905025

Some cause for optimism for Booker's campaign?

Eh, no reason to use resources over the next week when the future of her campaign is unknown.

I doubt that. Wouldn't you want to raise money to pay off likely campaign debt even if she loses? Not to mention use any proceeds to fund a pack she could use to keep herself politically relevant until she has another shot somewhere?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good, go Charles Booker

[NOVA Green]

WaPo showing Campbell County early numbers at (58-39 Booker) with roughly (680 Total Votes In)

Pike County: (40-37 Booker) with (470) votes in...

In fact SE KY numbers overall on WaPo appear to show Booker leading vs NYT.

Fayette County   (72-23 Booker) with a bit over 2k votes counted...

Christian County:    (60-24 Booker) with about 1k Votes counted....

What's going on here???

[anthonyjg]

https://twitter.com/MichaelDuncan/status/1275593821099905025

Some cause for optimism for Booker's campaign?

Eh, no reason to use resources over the next week when the future of her campaign is unknown.

I doubt that. Wouldn't you want to raise money to pay off likely campaign debt even if she loses? Not to mention use any proceeds to fund a pack she could use to keep herself politically relevant until she has another shot somewhere?

Honestly, looking back at that tweet, I'm not sure I even know what the second half of it means. Turning off ads I get, but is that tweet actually trying to say she has stopped accepting donations? The screenshot it comes with doesn't seem to reference revenue and I would also agree that it tactically doesn't make sense.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I correctly predicted it, Booker has gotton name recognition from Corey Booker. This tells that Corey Booker indeed dropped out too early of Prez and conceded to Biden.

[Matty]

McGrath dropping fast on predictit

[W]

I correctly predicted it, Booker has gotton name recognition from Corey Booker. This tells that Corey Booker indeed dropped out too early of Prez and conceded to Biden.

olawakandi can we get some thoughts on a potential Sen. Booker/Sen. Booker ticket in 2024? A moderate hero from a D state and a progressive newcomer from an R state on one ballot. Unstoppable?