KY-SEN: Amy McGrath in

[DINGO Joe]

Well, Rocky's been a loyal soldier in campaigning for Beshear after the primary and if he could help Beshear run better in the East, and Beshear pulls off a win, then without taking sides, Beshear might take sides.  Rocky kind of has a John Bel style that could create a chance against Moscow Mitch.

[DINGO Joe]

Maybe it's just "coincidence" but literally two days after the KY election, McConnell signed on to plan to provide funding to insolvent coal miner pensions that he'd been blocking for a couple of years now.

Link

He'd been blocking it because Tea Party types and Wyoming (for they're own grifty reason) didn't want it, but daddy has to watch out for his own butt right now.

[DINGO Joe]

Honestly Ds would be smart to get behind a primary challenger to McConnell.

Bevin did it once, and he ain't busy now.

[DINGO Joe]

New articles tonight on how McConnell views Trump lowly, and Amy McGrath is not appealing to the progressive base in KY.

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/04/20/how-mitch-mcconnell-became-trumps-enabler-in-chief

https://www.teenvogue.com/story/mcgrath-mcconnell-kentucky-young-voters

May be the first time I've seen a Teen Vogue article link here, eagerly await Tiger Beats take on the race.

Yeah, McConnell is trash and McGrath is underwhelming

[DINGO Joe]

Is someone scared?

https://twitter.com/AmyMcGrathKY/status/1271465886780661760?s=20

After McGrath wins, she can hire Booker's staff and give them all that.

[DINGO Joe]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/13/booker-mcgrath-mcconnell-kentucky-senate-316201

Politico has an excellent profile of the Democratic Primary here. Apparently Charles Booker has momentum, endorsements from Bernie Sanders, AOC, and the two largest newspapers in Kentucky.

McGrath has $19 million on hand as of the beginning of this month, which is more than Mitch McConnell's 2014 opponent Alison Lundergan Grimes spent during her entire race at all.

I think McGrath would be the stronger candidate to face McConnell in terms of winning the race, but wouldn't it be awesome to replace Mitch with an actual progressive?

Has there ever been a candidate with a huge bank like that lose a primary?  I know people have spent huge amounts and lost, but this is in the bank.  How would that money be disbursed if she lost (and i doubt she will)?

[DINGO Joe]

Record turnout, bigger than 2008 so far.

"I am worried that no-nothing, angry people from New York and California will call us and they'll block out people from rural and urban Kentucky who are trying to find out where to go vote," [Republican Attorney General Michael] Adams said. "That is voter suppression."

Uhhh....what?

#Populist 

[DINGO Joe]

If McGrath is still leading at the end of the night, she'll almost certainly win due to an advantage in mail-in ballots (Booker's surge didn't come until pretty late). Even if she's losing narrowly, she'll probably win after all the ballots come in.

Booker would probably want to be closer than within 12 points by now. Because while he will likely win Jessamine County, it probably isn't gonna be a blowout there big enough to make up for losing the rest of the state.

Do we have any idea of how many ballots were cast by day by county?

We really don't know buttsquat, especially on a county by county level  It's not a state accustomed to doing this and it doesn't have the statistical data that you usually get in state's with aggressive VbM and/or early voting programs.

I ain't touching this with a ten thousand foot pole.

[DINGO Joe]

I'm using the WaPo site.  Four counties have reported more votes than cast in 2016 primary which means the probably are reporting most early and election day voting.  They are Mason, Bath, Montgomery, and Woodford.  The latter three are in the Lexington district and Mason is just outside.  McGrath is winning those 50-30.  Not enough info to project anything yet.

[DINGO Joe]

Pay no attention to % reporting or whatever .  The total vote will likely exceed 500,000 in the D primary so pay attention to how many votes have been counted--like 10-12% of the expected total.

[DINGO Joe]

Pay no attention to % reporting or whatever .  The total vote will likely exceed 500,000 in the D primary so pay attention to how many votes have been counted--like 10-12% of the expected total.

In 2016 it was 426K, so the total may be lower than your 500K, but that doesn't change that fact that everyone should just put this race on the back-burner and tune back in later.

Well, Woodford, Montogmery, Bath, Mason, Taylor, Pulaski, and Carter have all reported higher vote totals than in 2016 (all solidly McGrath), so if Booker has a chance, Louisville better do so too

[DINGO Joe]

Pay no attention to % reporting or whatever .  The total vote will likely exceed 500,000 in the D primary so pay attention to how many votes have been counted--like 10-12% of the expected total.

Thanks DINGO.... almost thought you were trying to make a point at my post for a brief second. 

The point you are accentuating is one of stories about the KY DEM SEN PRIM which totally slips under the radar of the MSM...

Record PRIM Turnout (TO) % numbers in KY, despite the lack of a competitive DEM/PUB PRES PRIM, simply as a result of shifting to a hybrid ED and VbM Model....

Don't know about a record turnout, as 2008 D was over 600,000 votes

[DINGO Joe]

All these Booker Supporters here have to realize one thing:

Booker was expected to beat McGrath in the In-Person Vote given the surge.

I still have massive doubts that his lead will hold once the Absentee Vote is fully tabulated.

The NY Times said on Tuesday even Bookers Aides saying privatly that he will get close to Mrs McGrath but not get over the top.

The in-person voting seems pretty small.  Really need some kind of indication of late returning mail ballots to believe Booker has a chance.

[DINGO Joe]

All these Booker Supporters here have to realize one thing:

Booker was expected to beat McGrath in the In-Person Vote given the surge.

I still have massive doubts that his lead will hold once the Absentee Vote is fully tabulated.

The NY Times said on Tuesday even Bookers Aides saying privatly that he will get close to Mrs McGrath but not get over the top.

The in-person voting seems pretty small.  Really need some kind of indication of late returning mail ballots to believe Booker has a chance.

I find no reason to believe though that there's a 40+ point gap between absentees and election day at all, especially not in Louisville where Booker's name rec gap was never as bad since he represents Louisville in the state legislature.

I'm not saying McGrath will win Jefferson.  Booker needs a ton of votes in Jefferson to make up the rest of state.   I do see every reason to expect that the in-person vote especially in Jefferson would skew heavily Booker as it's mainly people drawn into the election last minute.  Keep in mind, I'm expecting for Booker to have a chance Jefferson has to cast 130000-140000 in the D primary.  So, looking at 10000 in person votes doesn't mean much.

Also, the only 2000 in person votes in Fayette county seem pretty weak too. 

Again, we're in uncharted territory here and have little clue about when ballots were returned and in what quantity, especially county by county.

[DINGO Joe]

I will say that Fayette is now up to 75000 returned mail ballots (no data on D-R split) so that's probably a modest data point in Booker's favor. 

[DINGO Joe]

If McGrath wins 2/3rds of the state by 20 pts, then Booker would have to win the other third by 40 to pull even.

[DINGO Joe]

Any guess as to what county will be Booker's third best county?  Maybe Franklin or Warren.  ED vote in  suburban Louisville doesn't look promising and I doubt he had enough recognition in NKY to do well.    ED vote in two military counties (Hardin and Christian) were good for Booker, but again I doubt they'll hold up with the early vote. 

[DINGO Joe]

Fayette says this morning that they've processed 82,666 ballots which is impressive

https://www.lexingtonky.gov/vote

[DINGO Joe]

Kudos to Daviess Co for not only producing results in a timely manner but also being transparent in explaining what's left to count.  In 2016 Daviess cast 11136 votes in the D primary and are now at  12267 in the Senate race and probably will finish around 12700.

[DINGO Joe]

McGrath wins "suburban" Simpson by only 6 votes.  Wins Pike easily, but with low turnout.  Booker could win this. 

[DINGO Joe]

Booker+5 roughly (3k votes over McGrath) in Fayette

That is a killer

[DINGO Joe]

McGrath wins Kenton by 20pts up 16000 votes statewide

[DINGO Joe]

McGrath wins Madison by less than 1%, would look good without knowing Fayette's numbers

[DINGO Joe]

McGrath only wins Oldham by 70 votes

[DINGO Joe]

McGrath wins Franklin by 4 pts