KY-SEN: Amy McGrath in

[Sorenroy]

As others pointed out, the NYT calculations for estimated outstanding votes seemed way off in their earlier estimates. Now that they're live updating again, they've put out another update that, by my screenshot-paint method, shows that they now think only 15% of votes have been reported. That would mean something like 650,000 votes (550,000 yet uncounted) in the Senate Democratic primary.

As of now, the numbers stand at McGrath 42.6% to Booker 41.5% with nearly 100,000 votes counted.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

I didn't really care who wins this race because both will lose to McConnell, but I'm for Booker now because I bet on him on PredictIt.

brtd is libright?

[n1240]

McCracken went from Booker+31 on eday to McGrath+12 overall

[NOVA Green]

We appear to have results out from Lee County for the first time--- (possible close to final?):

WaPo:

Booker- 96    McGrath-  217   TOTAL= 424   (91% of 2016 DEM PRES PRIM Numbers).

 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I didn't really care who wins this race because both will lose to McConnell, but I'm for Booker now because I bet on him on PredictIt.

brtd is libright?

?

People in all four quadrants use PredictIt...

[NOVA Green]

I didn't really care who wins this race because both will lose to McConnell, but I'm for Booker now because I bet on him on PredictIt.

brtd is libright?

?

People in all four quadrants use PredictIt...

So you freely admit to exploiting the fruits of the labor of the Atlas Community in an attempt to make a quick buck or two?     

Ok---- here is a more serious question.

* Insert noun noun for potentially damaging object* to *insert noun for sensitive parts of a human's body*, what do you think the final raw vote margins and % will be in Fayette County, Kentucky for this election?   

[NOVA Green]

So didn't see anyone post yet (apologies if I missed it)...

Rowan County (Possibly final with no previous results posted)...

DDHQ: Rowan County---

Booker--- 1083   (33.5%)
McGrath-- 1630  (50.5%)          +547 McGrath

Total=  3230      (121% of 2016 DEM PRES PRIM TOTAL VOTES)

[n1240]

I didn't really care who wins this race because both will lose to McConnell, but I'm for Booker now because I bet on him on PredictIt.

brtd is libright?

?

People in all four quadrants use PredictIt...

So you freely admit to exploiting the fruits of the labor of the Atlas Community in an attempt to make a quick buck or two?     

Ok---- here is a more serious question.

* Insert noun noun for potentially damaging object* to *insert noun for sensitive parts of a human's body*, what do you think the final raw vote margins and % will be in Fayette County, Kentucky for this election?   

10k and 17% for fayette

[NOVA Green]

Okay--- now that we are likely to have most of the numbers in today, excepting a possible few additional updates from news outlets not yet uploaded, let us reassess and attempt to consolidate the election results that we know thus far from multiple sources...

It is clear that McGrath has a current lead thus far based upon all publicly released results in terms of actual RAW VOTES.

1.) Let's start with Counties where it appears we either have FINAL results, or near-final results (n1240 rules= Counties which are close or above 100% of 2016 DEM PRIM numbers).

Sources: Would include largest results from NYT, WaPo, DDHQ, or even possibly official/semi-official results from KY- SoS).



These Counties collectively represent 20/120 Counties within Kentucky...

Counties highlighted in YELLOW are less than 100%, and although we can wrangle about the inclusion/exclusion, looking at Counties mostly completing ballot counting will at least give us a current data point to look at....



These Counties collectively accounted for 14% of the entire 2016 DEM PRES PRIM Vote Share....

McGrath--- 37,010    (51.0%)            +11,825 McGrath  (+16.3% McGrath)
Booker---   25,185    (34.7%)

Naturally there is a good chance that Casey, Johnson, Hopkins, & Webster have some numbers out there, not yet reflected, which will likely increase McGrath's raw vote count from those places....

2.) The obvious next question in my mind, is to what extent are these (20) Counties representative of KY DEM SEN PRIM numbers, excluding what appear to be Booker strongholds in Jefferson and Fayette Counties (and possibly a few other places)?

It's an interesting smorgasbord of Counties, but does include some High Pop Centers such as Daviess, Hardin and McCracken, which are 3/12 largest population centers within Kentucky.

3.) It does appear that the "Final" /Semi-Final Results are disproportionately located in NE KY, and parts of South-Central KY, but at the same time we are seeing results from some of the larger POP Centers of Western KY, as well as even "Suburban Areas" such as Woodford County and Shelby Counties...

4.) So McGrath is up almost +12k RAW Votes in Counties fully or almost fully reporting.... but we have no idea if a 51-37% McGrath margin will hold throughout downstate KY

As Dingo Joe & n1240 and others have been reporting, there have been significant gaps between ED Votes & "Final Votes" throughout Kentucky...but let's take a look at a few Counties which appear to have significantly higher numbers of votes than simply ED Results:

5.) Now we have to look at Counties that appear to have a significant number of both same day votes as well as absentee Votes...

Collectively accounted for 4% of the 2016 TOT DEM PRES PRIM VOTE in KY...



Booker---     4,123       (32.5%)
McGrath-     7,199        (56.7%)                  +3,076 McGrath   (+24.2% McGrath)

TOTAL=     12,689     (70% of 2016 DEM PRES PRIM Ballots)

Okay--- need to take a smoke break for a few, but looking like McGrath is currently up +15k in Counties which are mostly completed or counties with significant numbers of both ED & VbMs....

[NOVA Green]

So... let's walk back a little bit and look at Kentucky Counties not yet reporting ANY election results from the 2020 DEM SEN PRIM...





These Counties (28/120) accounted for 35,585 DEM PRES PRIM Ballots in 2016 (7.8% of Total Votes)...

If we assume that this Counties might be representative, let's multiply the 2016 DEM PRES PRIM numbers by 120%, to create a potential 42,700 Votes.

For sake of argument, let's take the 51% McGrath and 35% Booker numbers from Counties mostly completed and we see something like this hypothetically...

McGrath-   21,780           +6,830 McGrath
Booker-     14,950   

This gives us a bit of a concept as to potential McGrath numbers from Counties that have not yet reported ANY election results....

In theory this might take us to a +21k McGrath lead, without touching any counties with only initial ED results..... (Including presumed Booker Country in Jefferson and Fayette)....
     

[NOVA Green]

Now it's time to delve into a few Counties which appear to have a mixture of ED & VbM Ballots:





Relatively small number of Counties and Votes....

2016 DEM PRES PRIM:   8,606 Votes (1.9% of TOT DEM PRIM Votes)...

2020 DEM SEN PRIM: 

Booker--- 1,004        (27.5%)
McGrath-- 1,781       (48.7%)            + 777 McGrath   (+21.2% McGrath)

TOTAL= 3,657 (42.5% of 2016 DEM PRES PRIM Numbers)

Still one would imagine that even within these Counties we might likely expect to see McGrath leading by 2-3k RAW Vote Margins once all of the ballots are counted....

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

I didn't really care who wins this race because both will lose to McConnell, but I'm for Booker now because I bet on him on PredictIt.

brtd is libright?

?

People in all four quadrants use PredictIt...

saying that you only care about who wins because you have money on it is pretty stereotypical libright

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I didn't really care who wins this race because both will lose to McConnell, but I'm for Booker now because I bet on him on PredictIt.

brtd is libright?

?

People in all four quadrants use PredictIt...

saying that you only care about who wins because you have money on it is pretty stereotypical libright

What other reason is there to care? Both will lose to McConnell so it means nothing electorally or policy-wise who wins.

[NOVA Green]

So likely by Tomorrow Noon CDT, we might have a good idea of the Status of the race for a candidate to challenge: "Cocaine Mitch", "Moscow Mitch", "Mitch the Turtle", "the Grim Reaper", "Massacre Mitch", "Midnight Mitch", who in someway makes Ronald Reagan looking like he's got no Teflon, and McConnell's got the soul...

Man how does the dude keep winning election after election despite massive disapproval ratings in his home state?     

https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/mitch-mcconnell/2020/01/21/list-mitch-mcconnell-nicknames-moscow-mitch-grim-reaper-midnight-mitch/4529172002/

So whatever----

1.) We have (60) Counties in Kentucky (50% of Counties) and 39.0% of 2016 DEM PRES PRIM ballots, with essentially only Election Day Results (with perhaps a few exceptions)....

2.) I have excluded only two Counties from the list (Jefferson & Fayette Counties), but believe this should include all Counties not previously identified within my previous series of RESULT DAY releases....

3.) Here is an Excel Shot of the files:



4.) Without even attempting to delve into Jefferson and Fayette, at this point it looks like that we don't necessarily yet have a good idea on swings yet in larger Counties such as Franklin, Kenton, Warren, let alone without delving into places such as Campbell, Christian....

5.) Madison County is something I would be looking at closely on Team Booker, especially after seeing the results from Woodford County.....

6.) Taking a break and let someone else try to roll the numbers TV, RAW Booker> McGrath margins in Jefferson and Fayette (or a few other counties) while I smoke another cig, since still trying to look at the math with limited data points to roll with....

[n1240]

Woodford County narrowed a bit adding 1k votes or so. Now just McGrath+10

[Alben Barkley]

Louisville primary results to be released earlier than expected today:

https://www.wdrb.com/politics/louisville-primary-results-to-be-released-earlier-than-expected-on-tuesday/article_94081890-ba23-11ea-8ab4-5b487597e80d.html

Should be here by 10 AM.

[DINGO Joe]

McGrath wins "suburban" Simpson by only 6 votes.  Wins Pike easily, but with low turnout.  Booker could win this. 

[n1240]

Booker+5 roughly (3k votes over McGrath) in Fayette

[DINGO Joe]

Booker+5 roughly (3k votes over McGrath) in Fayette

That is a killer

[n1240]

Booker+5 roughly (3k votes over McGrath) in Fayette

That is a killer

Booker 27520 (50.0%)
McGrath 24005 (43.6%)
Total 54994

[ON Progressive]

Yeah, that margin in Fayette is very weak. Only about 900 votes better than Obama’s 2008 raw margin (although Booker will obviously be a lot closer statewide since he isn’t losing by 60+ in rural KY).

Think McGrath has this in the bag.

[Xing]

Booker probably needs about a 40-point margin in Jefferson to have a chance now. It’s probably over.

[Lambsbread]

I wonder how many of Broihier's voters would've otherwise voted for Booker if Yang hadn't endorsed. Margin of <2,000 votes right now, Broihier is at ~8,000.

[YE]

McGrath did everything she could to lose and still won (probably) while progressives prove how ineffective they are at winning big races yet again (though tbf this wasn’t seen as competitive until a couple weeks out)...

[n1240]

I wonder how many of Broihier's voters would've otherwise voted for Booker if Yang hadn't endorsed. Margin of <2,000 votes right now, Broihier is at ~8,000.

Margin is considerably higher than 2k rn but Jefferson is still outstanding of course.