KY-SEN: Amy McGrath in

[n1240]

Of course, right after I go through typing that up Daviess dumps votes...

Local Newspaper has results matching NYTimes in Boyd County, might be inclined to think their numbers there are better?

[NOVA Green]

Of course, right after I go through typing that up Daviess dumps votes...

Local Newspaper has results matching NYTimes in Boyd County, might be inclined to think their numbers there are better?

Good Find!!!

So I guess--- I can cross that discrepancy off the list.   

BTW: n1240 I want to give you a giant two thumbs up, a tip of the hat, and a virtual shot of the best bottle of Jim Beam or Maker's Mark (Your Choice), for your excellent coverage and "bird-dogging" of the 2020 KY-SEN DEM PRIM results!

You've been awesome on following this election, and looking forward to future contributions regarding other elections.   

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

McConnell needs to go, after his statement yesterday that DC will never be a state, proves that he is an obstructionist.  I dont care whom wins the primary,  Ds need to do all they can to defeat him

[ON Progressive]

NYT count updated this morning and is now:
Booker 34,653
McGrath 32,973

They didn't add just the Daviess numbers (I know this because both Booker and McGrath picked up more votes in the update than just Daviess would explain), and it doesn't look like any new counties were added.

Anyone have any ideas?

[NOVA Green]

NYT count updated this morning and is now:
Booker 34,653
McGrath 32,973

They didn't add just the Daviess numbers (I know this because both Booker and McGrath picked up more votes in the update than just Daviess would explain), and it doesn't look like any new counties were added.

Anyone have any ideas?

So the screenshot I took Yesterday PM showed:

Booker--- 32,479
McGrath-- 29,892   

1.) The discrepancy accounts for

Booker--     +2,174
McGrath--   + 3,081

Unfortunately I wasn't tracking county numbers in a spreadsheet by reporting source (too many damn counties in KY!) so I'm not sure off-hand how many of these votes were from Daviess County...

I checked all of the counties where the NYT had not reported and all counties where there were discrepancies between WaPo and NYT numbers...

So any additional changes (beyond Daviess) would have to come from counties where ONLY the NYT has reported results... which would narrow it down to roughly (40) counties!

Maybe if someone can pull the Daviess County numbers (pre-update) it might make it easier to narrow down the additional numbers?

[NOVA Green]

NYT count updated this morning and is now:
Booker 34,653
McGrath 32,973

They didn't add just the Daviess numbers (I know this because both Booker and McGrath picked up more votes in the update than just Daviess would explain), and it doesn't look like any new counties were added.

Anyone have any ideas?

So the screenshot I took Yesterday PM showed:

Booker--- 32,479
McGrath-- 29,892   

1.) The discrepancy accounts for

Booker--     +2,174
McGrath--   + 3,081

Unfortunately I wasn't tracking county numbers in a spreadsheet by reporting source (too many damn counties in KY!) so I'm not sure off-hand how many of these votes were from Daviess County...

I checked all of the counties where the NYT had not reported and all counties where there were discrepancies between WaPo and NYT numbers...

So any additional changes (beyond Daviess) would have to come from counties where ONLY the NYT has reported results... which would narrow it down to roughly (40) counties!

Maybe if someone can pull the Daviess County numbers (pre-update) it might make it easier to narrow down the additional numbers?

Actually, I did find the old numbers on DDHQ for Daviess:

Booker--   2,179
McGrath--  3,731

This accounts for the discrepancy in McGrath numbers, but there appears to be a slight gap in the Booker numbers (!):

Booker---      +1,904
McGrath---   +3,081

[NOVA Green]

Ok---- now we are starting to see some DDHQ numbers which are higher than current NYT or WaPo numbers for some counties!

Barren---    Booker 485    McGrath--- 391,       (NYT---  Booker 353, McGrath 314)
Campbell--- Booker 715   McGrath---  641    (NYT---  Booker   92, McGrath 195,
               WaPo--- Booker-- 390 McGrath 262)
Jessamine--  Booker 438  McGrath  259,    NYT- Booker-  362  McGrath 198, WaPo- Booker 240
               McGrath 140
Greenup--   Booker 297   McGrath 440, NYT-  Booker 60 McGrath 122, WaPo-  Booker 105 McGrath 189
Johnson-   Booker 356 McGrath 700---   NYT= None-    WaPo-    Same as DDHQ


So.... let's do roll the numbers from all of the data sources starting with the NYT "Baseline"

NYT:
Booker---   34,653
McGrath---  32,973

Add WaPo numbers not included in NYT numbers

Christian---  755 Booker, 297 McGrath    (1251 TOTAL)
Laurel--       136 Booker  117 McGrath    ( 283 TOTAL)
Letcher-       124 Booker   84 McGrath     (250 TOTAL)
Pike-            209 Booker   192 McGrath   (517 TOTAL)
Woodford-    1449 Booker  2180 McGrath  (4272 TOTAL)
Franklin-        211 Booker   108 McGrath   ( 364 TOTAL)
Bell-              140 Booker   223 McGrath   ( 476 TOTAL)
Lewis-             89 Booker   291 McGRath  ( 430 TOTAL)
Bracken-         79 Booker     87 McGrath   (257 TOTAL)

Booker= + 3,192 Votes      McGrath=   + 3,579     TOTAL= + 8,100 VOTES

2.) New TOTAL=   

Booker= 37,845
McGrath= 36,552

3.) Discrepancy Counties:  (Places where the WaPo and NYT, DDHQ numbers do not match (let's assume the highest total vote numbers are more accourate)....

NYT Larger:----    No Change--- Keep in NYT Totals

Edmonson-   NYT= 28 Booker, 61 McGrath     WaPo=   9 Booker, 26 McGrath     ***
Scott-         NYT=   600 Booker, 529 McGrath  WaPo=   463 Booker, 425 McGrath   ***
Nicholas-     NYT=     68 Booker,   55 McGrath,  WaPo=   55 Booker, 46 McGrath   ***
Harlan-       NYT=     30 Booker    68 McGrath,  WaPo=   Huh                              ***
Mercer-        NYT=   241 Booker, 138 McGrath,  WaPo=  241 Booker, 137 McGrath    ***


WaPo Larger:

Boone-        NYT=   580 Booker,  621 McGRath, WaPo=  581 Booker, 623 McGrath
Clark-          NYT=   208 Booker  128 McGrath,  WaPo=  284 Booker, 184 McGrath
Perry-         NYT=     59 Booker,   68 McGrath,  WaPo=   148 Booker, 70 McGrath

NYT TOTAL= Booker 847    McGrath  817    WaPo TOTAL=  Booker 1,013  McGrath    877

DDHQ Largest:

Barren---    Booker 485    McGrath--- 391,       (NYT---  Booker 353, McGrath 314)
Campbell--- Booker 715   McGrath---  641    (NYT---  Booker   92, McGrath 195,
               WaPo--- Booker-- 390 McGrath 262)
Jessamine--  Booker 438  McGrath  259,    NYT- Booker-  362  McGrath 198, WaPo- Booker 240
               McGrath 140
Greenup--   Booker 297   McGrath 440, NYT-  Booker 60 McGrath 122, WaPo-  Booker 105 McGrath 189
Johnson-   Booker 356 McGrath 700---   NYT= None-    WaPo-    Same as DDHQ

NYT TOTALS=  Booker- 867  McGrath- 829    DDHQ TOTALS= Booker- 2,291 McGrath- 2,431


4.)

Now let's subtract NYT numbers for counties where WaPo or DDHQ has higher Totals:

NYT:
Booker= 37,845     
McGrath= 36,552

Subtract and add back WaPo Discrepancies

NYT TOTAL= Booker 847    McGrath  817    WaPo TOTAL=  Booker 1,013  McGrath    877

NYT TOTALS=  Booker- 867  McGrath- 829    DDHQ TOTALS= Booker- 2,291 McGrath- 2,431

Booker= (37,845 NYT & WaPo minus 1,714 from NYT numbers to reflect WaPo & DDHQ highers so now add in 3,304 to cover the higher numbers for those counties)

McGrath= 36,552 NYT & WaPo minus 1,646 from NYT numbers to reflect WaPo & DDHQ highers so add in 3,308 to cover the higher numbers for those counties)

Booker= 39,435     McGrath=   38,214 appears to be the current state, assuming that all of the higher numbers are accurate.

This includes Johnson County numbers which n1240 had identified Yesterday from the KY SoS tweet....
   

[NOVA Green]

So while I am thinking about the topic...

Let's look at a few of these counties where DDHQ results are coming from (without any knowledge as to ED / EV VBm, Late VbM):

1,) Barren County--- goes from NYT:

Booker 353 (53%), McGrath (47%) 314  (TOT Two Candidate Votes = 667)    + 39 Bookers

to.... DDHQ:

Booker 485 (55%)   McGrath--- 391 (45%)  (TOT Two Candidate Votes = 876)   +94 Booker

Booker= +132 (63%)  McGrath= +77 (37%) (TOT Two Candidate NEW Votes= (209)

2.) Campbell County --- goes from Washington Post to DDHQ:

Booker-- 390 (60%) McGrath 262 (40%)  (TOT Two Candidate Votes = 652)  + 128 Booker

Booker-- Booker 715 (53%)  McGrath (47%)---  641   (TOT Two Candidate Votes = 1,356)  + 74 Booker

Booker= +325 (46%)  McGrath= +379 (54%)=== (TOT Two Candidate NEW Votes= (704)

3.) Jessamine County  --- goes from NYT to DDHQ:

Booker-  362 (65%  McGrath (35%) 198   (TOT Two Candidate Votes = 560)   + 164 Booker

Booker 438 (63%)  McGrath (37%)  259   (TOT Two Candidate Votes = 697)   + 179 Booker

Booker=  +76 Votes (55%)  McGrath (45%) + 61 Votes  (TOT Two Candidate NEW Votes = 137)   + 15 Booker

4.) Greenup County: goes from WaPo to DDHQ:

Booker 105 (36%) McGrath 189  (64%) (TOT Two Candidate Votes = 294)   + 84 McGrath

Booker 297 (40%)   McGrath 440 (60%)  (TOT Two Candidate Votes = 737)  + 143 McGrath   

Booker=  +192 Votes (43%)  McGrath +251 Votes (57%) (TOT Two Candidate NEW Votes = 443)   + 59 McGrath

So.... not sure about ED / EV VbM / Late VbM, but some of these numbers might suggest that Absentee / VbM Ballots aren't as universally McGrath as some have posited?

Still early, but yet another data point fwiw in one of the strangest SEN Primaries in recent years...
   

[n1240]

So while I am thinking about the topic...

Let's look at a few of these counties where DDHQ results are coming from (without any knowledge as to ED / EV VBm, Late VbM):

1,) Barren County--- goes from NYT:

Booker 353 (53%), McGrath (47%) 314  (TOT Two Candidate Votes = 667)    + 39 Bookers

to.... DDHQ:

Booker 485 (55%)   McGrath--- 391 (45%)  (TOT Two Candidate Votes = 876)   +94 Booker

Booker= +132 (63%)  McGrath= +77 (37%) (TOT Two Candidate NEW Votes= (209)

2.) Campbell County --- goes from Washington Post to DDHQ:

Booker-- 390 (60%) McGrath 262 (40%)  (TOT Two Candidate Votes = 652)  + 128 Booker

Booker-- Booker 715 (53%)  McGrath (47%)---  641   (TOT Two Candidate Votes = 1,356)  + 74 Booker

Booker= +325 (46%)  McGrath= +379 (54%)=== (TOT Two Candidate NEW Votes= (704)

3.) Jessamine County  --- goes from NYT to DDHQ:

Booker-  362 (65%  McGrath (35%) 198   (TOT Two Candidate Votes = 560)   + 164 Booker

Booker 438 (63%)  McGrath (37%)  259   (TOT Two Candidate Votes = 697)   + 179 Booker

Booker=  +76 Votes (55%)  McGrath (45%) + 61 Votes  (TOT Two Candidate NEW Votes = 137)   + 15 Booker

4.) Greenup County: goes from WaPo to DDHQ:

Booker 105 (36%) McGrath 189  (64%) (TOT Two Candidate Votes = 294)   + 84 McGrath

Booker 297 (40%)   McGrath 440 (60%)  (TOT Two Candidate Votes = 737)  + 143 McGrath   

Booker=  +192 Votes (43%)  McGrath +251 Votes (57%) (TOT Two Candidate NEW Votes = 443)   + 59 McGrath

So.... not sure about ED / EV VbM / Late VbM, but some of these numbers might suggest that Absentee / VbM Ballots aren't as universally McGrath as some have posited?

Still early, but yet another data point fwiw in one of the strangest SEN Primaries in recent years...
   

I would think that some counties having multiple polling places could describe discrepancies between the websites but it doesn't really explain Campbell County having three different results with two polling places or Barren County having three different sets of results with one polling place. Possible that there is a mix of early in-person vote in some DDHQ results? The volume of votes in these counties makes it very unlikely a substantial number of mail-in votes are included; Barren at 19.4% of 2016, Campbell 22.3%, Jessamine 21.7%, Greenup 26.9%.

Greenup claims 2800 in-person votes which is a bit less than the senate D + R votes counted on DDHQ (2487). Barren claimed about 2700 in-person + early in-person total, slightly less than DDHQ combined total of 2693. Campbell had 2800 in-person by 3 PM and there are 3888 senate votes on DDHQ, not unreasonable to think it's just eday votes there (also 1500 early in-person). Can't find any numbers in Jessamine.

[n1240]

Personal take on where the race stands given the available information, I'd say it's probably 75/25 in favor of McGrath to win. I think it's reasonable to think she does significantly better on absentees in Jefferson and Fayette but still loses each county by around 25-40% and 15-30% respectively, but there is still a great degree of uncertainty. Election day vote can be heavily skewed and unrepresentative in areas with only one polling place so it's possible Booker does upwards of around 40% worse in absentee vote in these counties.

[brucejoel99]

I'd be a bit more pessimistic on the Booker front as a Kentuckian. He's definitely ahead based on in-person votes, but it wouldn't shock me that the voters who came in person fit into a few different demographic categories that might not be representative of the electorate. Historically, Black & young people have struggled with voter apathy, on top of Black voters suffering from heightened levels of voter suppression. I'd feel safe in presuming that these 2 demographics made up a large portion of in-person voting.

McGrath's best avenue right now is dependent on how many people voted in late May/early June. She lost an absurd amount of ground this month during the protests when Booker was out on the streets of Louisville speaking with people. The older demographic that's more likely to vote for McGrath is also typically made up of more-consistent voters who would've made up a significant amount of the people who requested ballots early, as they frequently vote.

With a record number of ballots being requested & mailed-in, I'm just hopeful that Black & young people turned out in droves to help. I'm hopeful Booker can pull it out, but I won't be shocked if McGrath wins.

[ON Progressive]

Looking through some newspapers across KY to find when results will come out for certain counties, here is what I can find (some of these were from n1240's links above, others finding myself):
Boyd County - Monday
Carter County - Monday
Greenup County - Tuesday
Scott County - Tuesday (Source)
Jessamine County - "counting through June 27" (Source)
Warren County - "likely won't be in before June 30" (Source)

If anyone else can find anything for other counties, that would be greatly appreciated.

[n1240]

Looking through some newspapers across KY to find when results will come out for certain counties, here is what I can find (some of these were from n1240's links above, others finding myself):
Boyd County - Monday
Carter County - Monday
Greenup County - Tuesday
Scott County - Tuesday (Source)
Jessamine County - "counting through June 27" (Source)
Warren County - "likely won't be in before June 30" (Source)

If anyone else can find anything for other counties, that would be greatly appreciated.

Would expect most counties to certify June 30, possible the larger counties might miss the deadline, though. Might be able to expect a few scattered certifications on Monday.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Eventhough this race favors McConnell,  I am looking forward to the fight, McConnell is vowing to obstruct statehood again, after Ds passed DC statehood yesterday.  REICH said that he is an obstructionist and will use every last trick to keep power, look what he did to Garland

[ON Progressive]

Looking through some newspapers across KY to find when results will come out for certain counties, here is what I can find (some of these were from n1240's links above, others finding myself):
Boyd County - Monday
Carter County - Monday
Greenup County - Tuesday
Scott County - Tuesday (Source)
Jessamine County - "counting through June 27" (Source)
Warren County - "likely won't be in before June 30" (Source)

If anyone else can find anything for other counties, that would be greatly appreciated.

Would expect most counties to certify June 30, possible the larger counties might miss the deadline, though. Might be able to expect a few scattered certifications on Monday.

Looks like Jefferson and Fayette will be in Tuesday morning:
https://twitter.com/joesonka/status/1277613496591691781?s=21
https://twitter.com/drdesrochers/status/1277615364315254786?s=21

[n1240]

https://www.wcluradio.com/2020/06/29/nearly-8000-barren-co-votes-cast-in-primary-election/

Barren County releases near full results, missing about 900 votes still (adding gop prez + dem senate numbers gets about 7150). McGrath currently leads by 9% there, after trailling by 9% on election day.

Shelby County - election day vote is likely lumped in with absentee vote (if it isn't then the GOP turnout is higher than it was during the 2019 general, doesn't seem reasonable). about 19% swing assuming my eday + absentee lump assumption is correct.



Floyd County added to NYTimes, may or may not be complete given how low Dem turnout is compared to 2016 (I'd expect it to be low, maybe 70% of 2016, not 55%). McGrath leads by 27%, held 1% lead from eday votes.

[n1240]

https://twitter.com/joesonka/status/1277648042322284546

McGrath+12 -> McGrath+28 (estimated)

https://twitter.com/KYSecState/status/1277652983371771905

Wayne: Booker won election day narrowly but McGrath wins overall by 41

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/KYSecState/status/1277654910310498305

[n1240]

https://twitter.com/KYSecState/status/1277654910310498305

Odd how McGrath seemingly lost 4 votes from earlier reports. Also interesting how Booker narrowly won election day votes here.

[n1240]

McGrath wins Hardin by 0.2% per WaPo (Booker+17 on eday)

[2016]

Amy McGrath has now taken the lead AGAIN according to NBC NEWS

Amy McGrath 40.315 Votes = 43.2 %

Charles Booker 39.116 Votes = 43.0 %

17 % of the vote reported

Total Vote in the Democratic Senate Primary 93.242 per NBC NEWS!

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-primary-elections/kentucky-results?icid=election_nav

[Gass3268]

At first I thought Booker's dominance in Jefferson/Fayette would overpower any rural weakness, now I'm not so sure.

[anthonyjg]

At first I thought Booker's dominance in Jefferson/Fayette would overpower any rural weakness, now I'm not so sure.

If others follow the path that Floyd county took, then it’ll be very close. It’s a pure tossup right now.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I didn't really care who wins this race because both will lose to McConnell, but I'm for Booker now because I bet on him on PredictIt.

[n1240]

Thread of small county results

https://twitter.com/drdesrochers/status/1277681121501872128

Lewis

McGrath: 293 (66.9%)
Booker: 93 (21.2%)

McGrath: 645
Booker: 316

Carlisle
McGrath: 328
Booker: 151

While McGrath has some very healthy margins in these counties, a concern may be large dips in turnout in Demosaur counties like Floyd and Webster may limit the effects these counties have on the final margin, although these counties make up a pretty small percentage of the state as a whole still.