Maine vs North Carolina
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  Maine vs North Carolina		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: Which seat/state are Republicans more likely to win?
#1
Susan Collins-Maine		  
#2
Thom Tillis-North Carolina		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 64

Author Topic: Maine vs North Carolina  (Read 1386 times)
Arizona Iced Tea
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« on: May 30, 2020, 03:38:14 PM »
Both of these races are gonna be ground zero of the senate battle IMO, which one do you think Republicans have a better chance at. (Inspired from the other question about AZ vs MI)
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #1 on: May 30, 2020, 04:10:53 PM »
Maine.
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GoldenMainer
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« Reply #2 on: May 30, 2020, 04:18:51 PM »
Maine. Collins has been around longer than Tillis and has made the necessary connections across the state. I also see Cooper being more popular than Janet Mills going into the Summer and Fall which should help Cunningham and hurt Gideon. Aren't Dems heavily investing in NC to help Biden/Cooper/Cunningham win the state?
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S019
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« Reply #3 on: May 30, 2020, 04:26:42 PM »
Maine
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #4 on: May 30, 2020, 04:47:12 PM »
Tillis, Dems dont need NC, but ME is the tipping pt race .
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #5 on: June 01, 2020, 06:52:05 AM »
Maine, for the reasons GoldenMainer mentioned.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: June 01, 2020, 07:01:59 AM »
Quote from: Lechasseur on June 01, 2020, 06:52:05 AM
Maine, for the reasons GoldenMainer mentioned.

Yeah and Betsy Sweet is beating Collins in ME2, Collins is down by 9 pts and Tillis is tied with Cunningham.  Ds can win MT or KS after AZ, CO and ME, but ME is crucial to winning the Senate
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #7 on: June 01, 2020, 10:09:31 AM »
Quote from: GoldenMainer on May 30, 2020, 04:18:51 PM
Maine. Collins has been around longer than Tillis and has made the necessary connections across the state. I also see Cooper being more popular than Janet Mills going into the Summer and Fall which should help Cunningham and hurt Gideon. Aren't Dems heavily investing in NC to help Biden/Cooper/Cunningham win the state?

Agreed. In 2018, Manchin survived bec ause he had built up his name in his read state, whereas McCatskill, Heitkamp, and Donelly, were never really big names in their respective seats, an just got lucky with poor challengers.
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andjey
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« Reply #8 on: June 01, 2020, 11:01:44 AM »
Quote from: Lechasseur on June 01, 2020, 06:52:05 AM
Maine, for the reasons GoldenMainer mentioned.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #9 on: June 01, 2020, 11:34:59 AM »
Probably Maine.  Accidentally voted North Carolina.
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OKbooma
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« Reply #10 on: June 01, 2020, 11:59:18 AM »
Maine, only because Collins is able to distance herself from the national party in a way Tillis can't.

I still think both will flip though.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #11 on: June 01, 2020, 01:11:59 PM »
Quote from: TDAS04 on June 01, 2020, 11:34:59 AM
Probably Maine.  Accidentally voted North Carolina.

Yeah Collins is doing so well being down by plus 9 and Tills has been statistically tied in every poll and Dems can win MT or KS to get to 50 or 51 seats
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GoldenMainer
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« Reply #12 on: June 01, 2020, 05:21:11 PM »
Quote from: Cory Booker on June 01, 2020, 01:11:59 PM
Yeah Collins is doing so well being down by plus 9 and Tills has been statistically tied in every poll and Dems can win MT or KS to get to 50 or 51 seats

Victory Geek is not a highly-rated pollster. Take the +9 with a grain of salt when that poll has Gideon doing better in the second district than the first district which just... is not happening.
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Non Swing Voter
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« Reply #13 on: June 01, 2020, 06:32:33 PM »
I would have said Republicans are a lot more at risk of losing Maine but with the inflamed youth/racial tensions by Trump lately, I think we could see high youth/minority turnout this election which should help Democrats a lot more in North Carolina.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #14 on: June 01, 2020, 08:55:44 PM »
Quote from: GoldenMainer on June 01, 2020, 05:21:11 PM
Quote from: Cory Booker on June 01, 2020, 01:11:59 PM
Yeah Collins is doing so well being down by plus 9 and Tills has been statistically tied in every poll and Dems can win MT or KS to get to 50 or 51 seats

Victory Geek is not a highly-rated pollster. Take the +9 with a grain of salt when that poll has Gideon doing better in the second district than the first district which just... is not happening.

Yes, that's why Ds are targeting KS and MT in case Cunningham slips up and loses
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Xing
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« Reply #15 on: June 01, 2020, 11:03:32 PM »
Maine, since I expect Collins to overperform Trump by a least a few points (if not more), while Tillis looks likely to underperform Trump.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #16 on: June 02, 2020, 07:38:59 PM »
Quote from: Xing on June 01, 2020, 11:03:32 PM
Maine, since I expect Collins to overperform Trump by a least a few points (if not more), while Tillis looks likely to underperform Trump.

I think Xing and Indy Rep are the only two users, that arent hard right Rs that have Collins winning. Everyone else, including the profile map have Collins losing. Collins is DOA due to fact she voted to acquit Trump and voted for Kavanaugh
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Arizona Iced Tea
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« Reply #17 on: October 24, 2020, 12:26:27 PM »
5 months later, I think its clearly North Carolina, do you agree? Collins could still win, but if she does Tillis has already won at that point.
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xavier110
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« Reply #18 on: October 24, 2020, 12:27:38 PM »
It is 100 percent North Carolina. Collins is toast. Biden will win the state by 12-15 points. Next question.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #19 on: October 24, 2020, 12:41:17 PM »
Quote from: Arizona Iced Tea on October 24, 2020, 12:26:27 PM
5 months later, I think its clearly North Carolina, do you agree? Collins could still win, but if she does Tillis has already won at that point.

Definately, I take back what I said earlier.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #20 on: October 24, 2020, 01:21:08 PM »
Maine.

The reason I think Collins is more likely to hang on is because she won several elections by wide margins. She of course lost a lot of her moderate hero appeal, but it could still be enough for a bare win. However, I expect Democrats to pick up both seats.
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Xing
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« Reply #21 on: October 24, 2020, 01:32:22 PM »
At this point, it does seem like Republicans are more likely to hold NC, but I'd like to see more polls.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #22 on: October 24, 2020, 01:42:10 PM »
ME, Collins is on the path to a Manchining.
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