Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[DaleCooper]

I think Kelly narrowly wins.

I'll go with Janet +2 for my prediction, but I would not at all be surprised to see Kelly win. If he does, WI-SEN 2024 is a tossup, tilting R.

Make up your mind.

Kelly wins. The weather will hurt Janet.

Bad weather hurts rural voters.

[Gass3268]

What do the polls and early votes say so far?

There hasn't been a poll in weeks and that was a right-wing internal that had Protasiewicz up 2. The word is that the Potasiewicz camp's polling has them up mid-to-high single digits, but that also was a few weeks ago. Early voting is about a point better for conservatives than the primary, but a couple points better for liberals than 2022.

[wbrocks67]

What do the polls and early votes say so far?

No polls, really. Two Kelly internals that had him down 4 and then 2. Early vote seems good for Janet.

[Holmes]

How often do we get to see democratic government return to a corrupt one-party state through a peaceful process?

Every American citizen resident in Wisconsin can join, support, donate to, or vote for the candidates fielded by the Democrat Party of Wisconsin without fear of prosecution.

Bold of you to say that when it’s the Republicans in Wisconsin that have gerrymandered the state to hell in order to preserve an undeserved supermajority in the legislature.

The Republican Party of Wisconsin do not have a "supermajority in the legislature," whatever the morality of such a state of affairs may be. They have never been able to override the veto of the current Governor - a Democrat - by themselves.

So what’s the argument here? Democrats in Wisconsin are corrupt because Evers can veto bills?

[Steve from Lambeth]

How often do we get to see democratic government return to a corrupt one-party state through a peaceful process?

Every American citizen resident in Wisconsin can join, support, donate to, or vote for the candidates fielded by the Democrat Party of Wisconsin without fear of prosecution.

People in the countries I mentioned were often free to vote, too. And yet the result is that the single party stays in power, no matter what the vote total is.

Many Democrats are opposed to unsubstantiated allegations of election fraud.

How often do we get to see democratic government return to a corrupt one-party state through a peaceful process?

Every American citizen resident in Wisconsin can join, support, donate to, or vote for the candidates fielded by the Democrat Party of Wisconsin without fear of prosecution.

Bold of you to say that when it’s the Republicans in Wisconsin that have gerrymandered the state to hell in order to preserve an undeserved supermajority in the legislature.

The Republican Party of Wisconsin do not have a "supermajority in the legislature," whatever the morality of such a state of affairs may be. They have never been able to override the veto of the current Governor - a Democrat - by themselves.

So what’s the argument here? Democrats in Wisconsin are corrupt because Evers can veto bills?

No, it's that the Democrats in Wisconsin have a nonzero degree of political power.

[Sestak]

95% of the time it gets brought up on here or by election Twitter losers, weather does absolutely fyck-all in terms of moving an election result. Whatever predictions you’re going to make at least spare us the mind-numbing and give a real reason.

[Gass3268]

95% of the time it gets brought up on here or by election Twitter losers, weather does absolutely fyck-all in terms of moving an election result. Whatever predictions you’re going to make at least spare us the mind-numbing and give a real reason.

This is the correct take. Also the weather is supposed to be bad across the entire state today and I think most people know this. Those that are going to vote are going to make sure to get to the polls before things get bad. If anything this effects the indifferent Trumpy voters in the western part of the state that already have turnout issues in non-Trump elections.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think Kelly narrowly wins.

I'll go with Janet +2 for my prediction, but I would not at all be surprised to see Kelly win. If he does, WI-SEN 2024 is a tossup, tilting R.

Make up your mind.

Kelly wins. The weather will hurt Janet.

Bad weather hurts rural voters.

D's are advantage anyways when Johnson or Walker isn't on the ballot Tammy's Baldwin beat Tommy Thompson without Johnson or Walker on the ballot

[Gass3268]

Also skies have been clear all morning so far across the vast majority of the state. (Edit: It's cloudy, but no rain or storms) First real instance of crappy weather really doesn't appear to take hold until about 11:00 AM (4 hours after polls opened) and that will only be in the Southwestern corner of the state.  

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/benwikler/status/1643250662245842944?s=20

[wbrocks67]

Looks like final total was Dem spending $2.5M over GOP. And that doesn't even take into account GRP.

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1643258227096961025

[Gass3268]

Looks like final total was Dem spending $2.5M over GOP. And that doesn't even take into account GRP.

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1643258227096961025

I wish someone could figure out who got the most ad coverage, rather than spent the most. I think that would be more impactful.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I think Kelly narrowly wins.

I'll go with Janet +2 for my prediction, but I would not at all be surprised to see Kelly win. If he does, WI-SEN 2024 is a tossup, tilting R.

Make up your mind.

Kelly wins. The weather will hurt Janet.

FAIR WARNING: Stop the concern trolling.  Next one gets you muted from the board for a day.

[Skill and Chance]

Also skies have been clear all morning so far across the vast majority of the state. (Edit: It's cloudy, but no rain or storms) First real instance of crappy weather really doesn't appear to take hold until about 11:00 AM (4 hours after polls opened) and that will only be in the Southwestern corner of the state.  

Yes, the weather stuff is getting very annoying.  Get back to me when there's a GA runoff day Appalachian blizzard.  Anything short of that shouldn't matter.

[Brittain33]

(Defending one-party regime)

You can rationalize it or spin corrupt one-party rule any way you like, but we can agree that a win for democracy in Wisconsin should it happen represents the triumph of American values that we all celebrate.

[It’s so Joever]

It’s Clear Skies Over Milwaukee so Janet will win by 5% (only Roblox players get the reference )

[Gass3268]

Also skies have been clear all morning so far across the vast majority of the state. (Edit: It's cloudy, but no rain or storms) First real instance of crappy weather really doesn't appear to take hold until about 11:00 AM (4 hours after polls opened) and that will only be in the Southwestern corner of the state.  

Yes, the weather stuff is getting very annoying.  Get back to me when there's a GA runoff day Appalachian blizzard.  Anything short of that shouldn't matter.

Poor weather causing crappy turnout did present itself during the primary due to a blizzard in the northwest part of the state, but yeah I don't think anything will matter today. Folks who were going to vote know what the stakes are.

[Gass3268]

We should be getting a turnout update from Madison within the hour.

[UWS]

I think Kelly narrowly wins.

I'll go with Janet +2 for my prediction, but I would not at all be surprised to see Kelly win. If he does, WI-SEN 2024 is a tossup, tilting R.

Make up your mind.

Kelly wins. The weather will hurt Janet.

And people won’t vote for someone like Protasiewicz who used the N word to refer to AAs (which will hurt Protasiewicz in places like Milwaukee) and who abused her first husband

https://www.wispolitics.com/2023/justice-kelly-campaign-comments-on-abuse-allegations-against-judge-protasiewicz

[Gass3268]

I think Kelly narrowly wins.

I'll go with Janet +2 for my prediction, but I would not at all be surprised to see Kelly win. If he does, WI-SEN 2024 is a tossup, tilting R.

Make up your mind.

Kelly wins. The weather will hurt Janet.

And people won’t vote for someone like Protasiewicz who used the N word to refer to AAs (which will hurt Protasiewicz in places like Milwaukee) and who abused her first husband

https://www.wispolitics.com/2023/justice-kelly-campaign-comments-on-abuse-allegations-against-judge-protasiewicz

Dude these have been confirmed to be lies and made up. There is a reason the no one in the legitimate press has touched these false allegations. Do better!

[Gass3268]

Pro-choice... checks notes.... Menomonee Falls?

https://twitter.com/srl/status/1643279110536396802?s=20

[Pollster]

Pro-choice... checks notes.... Menomonee Falls?

https://twitter.com/srl/status/1643279110536396802?s=20

Menomonee Falls is also a key region in the State Senate special election.

[wbrocks67]

I think Kelly narrowly wins.

I'll go with Janet +2 for my prediction, but I would not at all be surprised to see Kelly win. If he does, WI-SEN 2024 is a tossup, tilting R.

Make up your mind.

Kelly wins. The weather will hurt Janet.

And people won’t vote for someone like Protasiewicz who used the N word to refer to AAs (which will hurt Protasiewicz in places like Milwaukee) and who abused her first husband

https://www.wispolitics.com/2023/justice-kelly-campaign-comments-on-abuse-allegations-against-judge-protasiewicz

You are literally posting about stuff that was proven *Fake*. Are you serious right now?

[SnowLabrador]

Pro-choice... checks notes.... Menomonee Falls?

https://twitter.com/srl/status/1643279110536396802?s=20

Is that a traditionally conservative area?

[DaleCooper]

I think Kelly narrowly wins.

I'll go with Janet +2 for my prediction, but I would not at all be surprised to see Kelly win. If he does, WI-SEN 2024 is a tossup, tilting R.

Make up your mind.

Kelly wins. The weather will hurt Janet.

And people won’t vote for someone like Protasiewicz who used the N word to refer to AAs (which will hurt Protasiewicz in places like Milwaukee) and who abused her first husband

https://www.wispolitics.com/2023/justice-kelly-campaign-comments-on-abuse-allegations-against-judge-protasiewicz

You are literally posting about stuff that was proven *Fake*. Are you serious right now?

Well to be fair, it wouldn't matter if it was fake if the media decided to run with it, but it sounds like this was a nothing story. I've never heard of it, but to be fair I'm not in Wisconsin.