Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[cg41386]

Pro-choice... checks notes.... Menomonee Falls?

https://twitter.com/srl/status/1643279110536396802?s=20

Is that a traditionally conservative area?

It's in Waukesha County, along the Milwaukee County line. Waukesha is one of the conservative WOW counties.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Where is a good place to follow the results?

[Gass3268]

Pro-choice... checks notes.... Menomonee Falls?

https://twitter.com/srl/status/1643279110536396802?s=20

Is that a traditionally conservative area?

It's in Waukesha County, along the Milwaukee County line. Waukesha is one of the conservative WOW counties.

Traditionally its very conservative, but it's zoomed to the center recently. It's also very educated.

Walker '14 +41, Walker '18 +28, Mitchell '22 +8

[Gass3268]

Madison's turnout is at 32% at 11:00 AM.

https://twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1643304168839340053?s=20

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1643308136525176837?s=20

[Nyvin]

Pro-choice... checks notes.... Menomonee Falls?

https://twitter.com/srl/status/1643279110536396802?s=20

Menomonee Falls is also a key region in the State Senate special election.

yeah, the margins in Menomonee Falls and Germantown are probably going to determine the outcome of the special election for SD-8.  Those are exactly the areas the Dems can make big improvements in.

[Gass3268]

Madison's turnout is at 32% at 11:00 AM.

https://twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1643304168839340053?s=20

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1643308136525176837?s=20

Currently at 83% of November 2022 turnout.

https://twitter.com/IntrmissionTime/status/1643308488138031105?s=20

[Spectator]

What was Madison’s turnout in 2019?

[walleye26]

The Madison mayor’s race is VERY contentious and I’m expecting high turnout because of that.

[MT Treasurer]

This is one of those elections where the Democratic candidate couldn’t have done anything to lose the race. Prostaciewicz winning easily isn’t surprising, but this is probably the worst decade to be a conservative since the 1960s. We can debate the reasons for that — and I think it goes way beyond abortion — but it’s going to take a transformative figure and a complete transformation of the party (incl. a replacement of its out-of-touch leadership) to change that, among other things.

[Spectator]

This is one of those elections where the Democratic candidate couldn’t have done anything to lose the race.

Yeah, I don’t think the outcome is really in doubt at all. Wisconsin Democrats (and really Democrats everywhere outside the south) are the high turnout party now.

[Oryxslayer]

Pro-choice... checks notes.... Menomonee Falls?

https://twitter.com/srl/status/1643279110536396802?s=20

Is that a traditionally conservative area?

Yes-ish. Waukesha suburb adjacent to NW Milwaukee so historically lockstep Conservative, and also historically the WOW votes for conservative judges to a greater degree than the percent they delivered for recent federal Republicans. However Trump in 2020 won by 11, Dems are winning a few precincts in there now, and it's no cause of minority in migration like Asians into Waukesha city and Brookfield. Most crucially though, it's in the State Senate seat that's also voting, so there are extra incentives to turn out. While areas that are more Dem tilting now in inner Ozaukee are more associated with the regions trends, Menomonee can also be said to be among the suburbs where dems are gaining through voter persuasion.

This matters because in the primary we generally saw a one-way behavior of voters. The court races have their own geography that more resembles the Obama coalition but not exactly since WOW and Dane carry a lot more weight for each party. However, there was evidence of modern Dem trends seeping into the primary coalitions, but not modern GOP ones. There is the potential for the full national trends to be realized now that WOW candidate Dorow was defeated and its Kelly on the ballot, and given the national issues in the election, but we will have to wait and see.

[SnowLabrador]

This is one of those elections where the Democratic candidate couldn’t have done anything to lose the race.

Yeah, I don’t think the outcome is really in doubt at all. Wisconsin Democrats (and really Democrats everywhere outside the south) are the high turnout party now.

The Nate Silver rule is to assume you learn nothing from early voting until the results start coming in. Then again, he's more like Nate Bronze these days.

[Oryxslayer]

Where is a good place to follow the results?

DDHQ will have a page up later tongiht. NYT also will like they did for the primary. The fact the race is critical to control has caused the nationals to tune in, in the past it was only the state newspaper websites.

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if MSNBC has their team on it given their audience, and maybe the other channels will discuss this and Chicago when the races are called/

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Madison's turnout is at 32% at 11:00 AM.

https://twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1643304168839340053?s=20

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1643308136525176837?s=20

Unless trhere was some evangelical revival that swept through the population of Madison last week this is terrible news of Kelly

[UWS]

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2023/04/03/kelly-travels-protasiewicz-grounded-with-illness-in-election-windup/70075854007/

[Gass3268]

What was Madison’s turnout in 2019?

~43% based on the 5/1/2019 registration numbers.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1643334209895907328

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1643334209895907328

They want to take their state back!

[Cyrusman]

This is one of those elections where the Democratic candidate couldn’t have done anything to lose the race. Prostaciewicz winning easily isn’t surprising, but this is probably the worst decade to be a conservative since the 1960s. We can debate the reasons for that — and I think it goes way beyond abortion — but it’s going to take a transformative figure and a complete transformation of the party (incl. a replacement of its out-of-touch leadership) to change that, among other things.

Why is that, in terms of this being the worst decade to be a conservative since the 1960s?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Love to see D's overperform on the WI ballot when Johnson isn't on the ballot and they will and Johnson isn't gonna to overperform in 28 like he did 22 because it's aPrez Eday not a Midterm

[Comrade Funk]

These anecdotal videos are usually propaganda, regardless of which side they're hyping up.

[wbrocks67]

Will be very interesting if Prostaciewicz ends up winning decisively and you still have pundits who refuse to admit that abortion is a massive driving issue for voters. Would be ironic too given that Morning Consult just put out that poll about its power of "salience" dropping.

[DaleCooper]

Will be very interesting if Prostaciewicz ends up winning decisively and you still have pundits who refuse to admit that abortion is a massive driving issue for voters. Would be ironic too given that Morning Consult just put out that poll about its power of "salience" dropping.

Regardless of who wins, the pundits will be at the nearest Denny's interviewing fat whites about how they're left behind or forgotten.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Will be very interesting if Prostaciewicz ends up winning decisively and you still have pundits who refuse to admit that abortion is a massive driving issue for voters. Would be ironic too given that Morning Consult just put out that poll about its power of "salience" dropping.

Regardless of who wins, the pundits will be at the nearest Denny's interviewing fat whites about how they're left behind or forgotten.

“We’re talking to Witt Rural outside of a polling station in Fort Middleofnowhere whose wife left him and who only drinks beer while crying in the dark. Tell us Witt, do you feel abandoned”

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1643334209895907328

always great to see high turnout on college campuses. There is a reason Republicans don't want college students voting or at least make it as hard as possible.