Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[Gass3268]

And it gets struck down 4/3, with Hagedorn writing the dissent.

Finally!!! About time! Evers is a sure GONER in 2022 if it's a Biden Midterm.

Hopefully Evers will reinstate the popular and reasonable restrictions once Kelly is booted from the court in August. I'm going back to Wisconsin this weekend and I will boycott any business that recklessly opens up.

So you won't go to any businesses that you wouldn't have bene able to go to anyway? Good for you.

Thank you!

[Oryxslayer]

I said this When Dems won the court race, but it has once again cropped up - Hagedorn is a Conservative, but not a power-grabber like the the normal WIGOP. Probably has something to do with him being left to the wolves by the usual GOP partisan actors in his election, since he was seen as too extreme in certain areas. His support network was more 'unofficial,' and when he won it was a surprise to all but the most devout. For example, check out the number of endorsements he got (listed on Ballotopedia) when compared to Kelly or Screnock.

[walleye26]

I said this When Dems won the court race, but it has once again cropped up - Hagedorn is a Conservative, but not a power-grabber like the the normal WIGOP. Probably has something to do with him being left to the wolves by the usual GOP partisan actors in his election, since he was seen as too extreme in certain areas. His support network was more 'unofficial,' and when he won it was a surprise to all but the most devout. For example, check out the number of endorsements he got (listed on Ballotopedia) when compared to Kelly or Screnock.

You could be right-and maybe I underestimated him.

[Gass3268]

Huge news from the Wisconsin Elections Commission:

https://twitter.com/SJohnsonWPR/status/1265774487427039232?s=20

[MasterJedi]

Huge news from the Wisconsin Elections Commission:

https://twitter.com/SJohnsonWPR/status/1265774487427039232?s=20

Eagerly awaiting the Vos/Fitzgerald meltdown over this.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/sbauerap/status/1271076568396451841?s=21

[Gass3268]

Good news here:

https://twitter.com/aligarfield_/status/1292858405917425665?s=20

[redjohn]

Excited to see the results in Madison tomorrow. I have a few friends on the ballot for State Rep + State Senate and it's going to be interesting to see what happens.

In the 26th Senate district, I'm really hoping Elmikashfi takes the win. Seems like a tossup between her and Roys.

For the 76th Assembly district, my guess is Hong or Rummel wins the Democratic primary, which is the only race that really matters.

Will also be interesting to see who walks away winning the GOP primary in WI-05. Palzewicz is about the best Democratic candidate you can have in this district without sacrificing liberal positions, but there's no real chance he wins in November. I'm still unsure whether Fitzgerald or DeTemple would be worse in the race for the GOP nom.

[Gass3268]

Excited to see the results in Madison tomorrow. I have a few friends on the ballot for State Rep + State Senate and it's going to be interesting to see what happens.

In the 26th Senate district, I'm really hoping Elmikashfi takes the win. Seems like a tossup between her and Roys.

For the 76th Assembly district, my guess is Hong or Rummel wins the Democratic primary, which is the only race that really matters.

Will also be interesting to see who walks away winning the GOP primary in WI-05. Palzewicz is about the best Democratic candidate you can have in this district without sacrificing liberal positions, but there's no real chance he wins in November. I'm still unsure whether Fitzgerald or DeTemple would be worse in the race for the GOP nom.

I'm hoping to have maps completed not long after we get the results tomorrow for SD-16 and SD-26.

[Drew]

Update from Dane County’s numerous open-seat races.

https://twitter.com/wsjmattd4/status/1293359197132853248?s=21

[Gass3268]

Elmikashfi is winning in the Ismuths based AD-76, but only by 3 points. Roys lead gets bigger the farther you get from the core of Madison.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Gassman3268/status/1293410492959076352?s=20

https://twitter.com/Gassman3268/status/1293400300171276290?s=20

[MasterJedi]

1. Evers called a special session on policy brutality/criminal justice reform. Guaranteed Vos/Fitzgerald will immediately gavel in and out and say to obey the police. Will hurt them for sure.

2. Lawsuit from snowflake conservatives to eliminate the mask mandate.

[walleye26]

1. Evers called a special session on policy brutality/criminal justice reform. Guaranteed Vos/Fitzgerald will immediately gavel in and out and say to obey the police. Will hurt them for sure.

2. Lawsuit from snowflake conservatives to eliminate the mask mandate.

It won’t hurt them. Wisconsin is so gerrymandered it will probably actually help them. Obviously that’s hyperbole, but not really.

[MasterJedi]

Have to laugh in a sick way when Vos/Fitzgerald try to hit Evers on taking a unilateral approach to COVID. Coming from the two guys who have refused to have the legislature meet since March and are using public money to fight a court case to overturn the mask mandate when they could do it in a day through their day jobs (of course while their base areas are in deep red trouble from it).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Have to laugh in a sick way when Vos/Fitzgerald try to hit Evers on taking a unilateral approach to COVID. Coming from the two guys who have refused to have the legislature meet since March and are using public money to fight a court case to overturn the mask mandate when they could do it in a day through their day jobs (of course while their base areas are in deep red trouble from it).

Vos in particular seems like an especially odious individual.

[MasterJedi]

Have to laugh in a sick way when Vos/Fitzgerald try to hit Evers on taking a unilateral approach to COVID. Coming from the two guys who have refused to have the legislature meet since March and are using public money to fight a court case to overturn the mask mandate when they could do it in a day through their day jobs (of course while their base areas are in deep red trouble from it).

Vos in particular seems like an especially odious individual.

He's an evil man, he's for sure running against Evers in 2022.

[Drew]

Wisconsin GOP’s hopes of a supermajority in the state legislature are fading due to Trump trailing in the state.  This is particularly true in the Assembly, where the battlegrounds are mainly in the Milwaukee suburbs.  Democrats could still take a net loss in the Senate, which features more rural battlegrounds further north.

https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/republican-dreams-of-a-supermajority-in-the-wisconsin-legislature-fade-with-trump/article_a5b11afd-31f4-5ec7-b864-05b25f46f165.html?utm_campaign=snd-autopilot&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook_&fbclid=IwAR2XAnFMExbE5qS0SF3Tx7psjMiaePPk-94XsHHmUFoGrR1CDPjyyR3QQS8

[Lognog]

Wisconsin GOP’s hopes of a supermajority in the state legislature are fading due to Trump trailing in the state.  This is particularly true in the Assembly, where the battlegrounds are mainly in the Milwaukee suburbs.  Democrats could still take a net loss in the Senate, which features more rural battlegrounds further north.

https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/republican-dreams-of-a-supermajority-in-the-wisconsin-legislature-fade-with-trump/article_a5b11afd-31f4-5ec7-b864-05b25f46f165.html?utm_campaign=snd-autopilot&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook_&fbclid=IwAR2XAnFMExbE5qS0SF3Tx7psjMiaePPk-94XsHHmUFoGrR1CDPjyyR3QQS8

Does the governor have an say in redistricting

[Drew]

Wisconsin GOP’s hopes of a supermajority in the state legislature are fading due to Trump trailing in the state.  This is particularly true in the Assembly, where the battlegrounds are mainly in the Milwaukee suburbs.  Democrats could still take a net loss in the Senate, which features more rural battlegrounds further north.

https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/republican-dreams-of-a-supermajority-in-the-wisconsin-legislature-fade-with-trump/article_a5b11afd-31f4-5ec7-b864-05b25f46f165.html?utm_campaign=snd-autopilot&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook_&fbclid=IwAR2XAnFMExbE5qS0SF3Tx7psjMiaePPk-94XsHHmUFoGrR1CDPjyyR3QQS8

Does the governor have an say in redistricting

Yes, Evers can veto maps by the Legislature.

[Mr.Phips]

Wisconsin GOP’s hopes of a supermajority in the state legislature are fading due to Trump trailing in the state.  This is particularly true in the Assembly, where the battlegrounds are mainly in the Milwaukee suburbs.  Democrats could still take a net loss in the Senate, which features more rural battlegrounds further north.

https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/republican-dreams-of-a-supermajority-in-the-wisconsin-legislature-fade-with-trump/article_a5b11afd-31f4-5ec7-b864-05b25f46f165.html?utm_campaign=snd-autopilot&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook_&fbclid=IwAR2XAnFMExbE5qS0SF3Tx7psjMiaePPk-94XsHHmUFoGrR1CDPjyyR3QQS8

I would guess Republicans gain one or two seats in the state Senate and lose a couple in the Assmebly.

[Lognog]

Wisconsin GOP’s hopes of a supermajority in the state legislature are fading due to Trump trailing in the state.  This is particularly true in the Assembly, where the battlegrounds are mainly in the Milwaukee suburbs.  Democrats could still take a net loss in the Senate, which features more rural battlegrounds further north.

https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/republican-dreams-of-a-supermajority-in-the-wisconsin-legislature-fade-with-trump/article_a5b11afd-31f4-5ec7-b864-05b25f46f165.html?utm_campaign=snd-autopilot&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook_&fbclid=IwAR2XAnFMExbE5qS0SF3Tx7psjMiaePPk-94XsHHmUFoGrR1CDPjyyR3QQS8

Does the governor have an say in redistricting

Yes, Evers can veto maps by the Legislature.

is there going to be a more fair map assuming the GOP doesn't get super majorities

[lfromnj]

Wisconsin GOP’s hopes of a supermajority in the state legislature are fading due to Trump trailing in the state.  This is particularly true in the Assembly, where the battlegrounds are mainly in the Milwaukee suburbs.  Democrats could still take a net loss in the Senate, which features more rural battlegrounds further north.

https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/republican-dreams-of-a-supermajority-in-the-wisconsin-legislature-fade-with-trump/article_a5b11afd-31f4-5ec7-b864-05b25f46f165.html?utm_campaign=snd-autopilot&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook_&fbclid=IwAR2XAnFMExbE5qS0SF3Tx7psjMiaePPk-94XsHHmUFoGrR1CDPjyyR3QQS8

Does the governor have an say in redistricting

Yes, Evers can veto maps by the Legislature.

is there going to be a more fair map assuming the GOP doesn't get super majorities

For what?

Congressionally? Net effect is WI07 which is still Safe R moving a touch left and WI03 moving right and WI01 moving left.  WI02 and WI04 which are mega packs aren't really going to be unpacked as they are fairly natural. A court map might fully unite WOW but WOW although still staunchly Republican is no longer a mega sink for the GOP to counteract the effects of the previous 2.


Legislatively- yeah a fairer map would help WI Ds but they are pretty incompetent and they struggle to win many fair districts at the legislative level. the SW legislative district that mostly covers Grant county and 1 or 2 other towns was Evers +1 but voted for the R incumbent by 20. Democrats don't deserve to win a legislative majority unless they can actually start winning seats like those and a bit beyond upto say around Walker +4?

The 12 point popular vote legislative victory but barely getting above the super minority mark happened due to uncontested seats.

Also redistricting goes to the WI supreme court which is currently 4 R-3 D and generally composed of partisan hacks on both ways although Hagedorn feels a bit less loyalty to the state GOP and has been the swing vote recently and he would just output a genuinely fair map based on COI which involves keeping WOW together but also keeping Dane and Milwaukee whole and mostly whole which still hurts D's at a partisan level. Although there is a decent argument for WI01 to take 25k from SE Waukesha county due to population equality concerns.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Wisconsin GOP’s hopes of a supermajority in the state legislature are fading due to Trump trailing in the state.  This is particularly true in the Assembly, where the battlegrounds are mainly in the Milwaukee suburbs.  Democrats could still take a net loss in the Senate, which features more rural battlegrounds further north.

https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/republican-dreams-of-a-supermajority-in-the-wisconsin-legislature-fade-with-trump/article_a5b11afd-31f4-5ec7-b864-05b25f46f165.html?utm_campaign=snd-autopilot&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook_&fbclid=IwAR2XAnFMExbE5qS0SF3Tx7psjMiaePPk-94XsHHmUFoGrR1CDPjyyR3QQS8

Does the governor have an say in redistricting

Yes, Evers can veto maps by the Legislature.

is there going to be a more fair map assuming the GOP doesn't get super majorities

Depends how the WI SC rules.  There is one conservative Justice who is more from the ideological-wing than the “cling to/gain more power at all costs” wing of the WI Republican Party IIRC.  OTOH, the WI SC has a 3-4 Republican majority and the aforementioned Justice has a mixed record when it comes to his willingness to break with the other three Republican Justices, so who knows.  

[Skill and Chance]

Wisconsin GOP’s hopes of a supermajority in the state legislature are fading due to Trump trailing in the state.  This is particularly true in the Assembly, where the battlegrounds are mainly in the Milwaukee suburbs.  Democrats could still take a net loss in the Senate, which features more rural battlegrounds further north.

https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/republican-dreams-of-a-supermajority-in-the-wisconsin-legislature-fade-with-trump/article_a5b11afd-31f4-5ec7-b864-05b25f46f165.html?utm_campaign=snd-autopilot&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook_&fbclid=IwAR2XAnFMExbE5qS0SF3Tx7psjMiaePPk-94XsHHmUFoGrR1CDPjyyR3QQS8

Does the governor have an say in redistricting

Yes, Evers can veto maps by the Legislature.

is there going to be a more fair map assuming the GOP doesn't get super majorities

Depends how the WI SC rules.  There is one conservative Justice who is more from the ideological-wing than the “cling to/gain more power at all costs” wing of the WI Republican Party IIRC.  OTOH, the WI SC has a 3-4 Republican majority and the aforementioned Justice has a mixed record when it comes to his willingness to break with the other three Republican Justices, so who knows.  

There will be a bid to have the WISC reinterpret the state constitution to create no veto NC rules for redistricting.  It almost surely would have succeeded before Karofsky beat Kelly, but now it will probably fail. Hagedorn has been consistently voting against conservative attempts to change election rules.