Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[Mr.Phips]

State Sen. Dave Hansen (D-SD30) retiring, potential GOP pickup as the district has been trending R.

https://www.wpr.org/green-bay-state-sen-dave-hansen-wont-seek-re-election

A GOP supermajority in the state Senate is within reach.  It’s possible they could pick this up (Dems won it 51.3-48.7 in 2016), as well as Patty Schachtner’s seat (SD10, she’s the Doug Jones of Wisconsin), and Minority Leader Jennifer Shilling’s seat (SD32, held onto her seat by 56 votes in 2016).

Even Hillary won Shilling’s district.  I doubt she loses unless Wisconsin swings even further toward Trump.

[Mr.Phips]

Eh this is following the same pattern as the Hagedorn race.  Looked good for Dems until the end when Hagedorn pulled ahead.

[Mr.Phips]

Wisconsin GOP’s hopes of a supermajority in the state legislature are fading due to Trump trailing in the state.  This is particularly true in the Assembly, where the battlegrounds are mainly in the Milwaukee suburbs.  Democrats could still take a net loss in the Senate, which features more rural battlegrounds further north.

https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/republican-dreams-of-a-supermajority-in-the-wisconsin-legislature-fade-with-trump/article_a5b11afd-31f4-5ec7-b864-05b25f46f165.html?utm_campaign=snd-autopilot&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook_&fbclid=IwAR2XAnFMExbE5qS0SF3Tx7psjMiaePPk-94XsHHmUFoGrR1CDPjyyR3QQS8

I would guess Republicans gain one or two seats in the state Senate and lose a couple in the Assmebly.

[Mr.Phips]

Are there any Senate or Assembly districts that have a chance of flipping this year?  I know the seats are all pretty gerrymandered in but I'd be shocked if at least a few didn't change party hands.

A couple of suburban and driftless area seats that a Republicans hold.

[Mr.Phips]

Are there any Senate or Assembly districts that have a chance of flipping this year?  I know the seats are all pretty gerrymandered in but I'd be shocked if at least a few didn't change party hands.

A couple of suburban and driftless area seats that a Republicans hold.

[Mr.Phips]

Legislative Republicans’ latest power grab: they want to eliminate elections for SOS, Treasurer, and state superintendent and have them be appointed positions subject to confirmation which they can obstruct.

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2021/09/29/wisconsin-republican-lawmakers-want-superintendent-treasurer-secretary-state-appointed-not-elected/5914924001/

Why stop at those offices?  Why not make the AG appointed as well?

[Mr.Phips]

Also as a Dem, I really think Dems strategy in Wisconsin should be the win the court cause realistically they are not going to be winning the state government and there’s a very good chance the GOP can hold legsitaltive supermajorities in jornal years thanks to how Dems self-pack. I would much rather have an R trifecta in WI with a liberal court than an R supermajority legislature, a D governor, and a conservative court.

In MI and PA however, Rs shouldn’t win supermajorities except in amazing years and Dems have good chances of getting trifectas in state government. Imo those are better investments. Same goes for AZ. I’m not saying Dems should just give up on WI but I don’t think it’s worth all of this to fight an ultimately losing battle for state government control.

Supermajorities are pretty much impossible for Republicans in MI and PA.  The assembly is also close to impossible in Wisconsin, although they are almost certain to get there in the senate this year.

[Mr.Phips]

Also as a Dem, I really think Dems strategy in Wisconsin should be the win the court cause realistically they are not going to be winning the state government and there’s a very good chance the GOP can hold legsitaltive supermajorities in jornal years thanks to how Dems self-pack. I would much rather have an R trifecta in WI with a liberal court than an R supermajority legislature, a D governor, and a conservative court.

In MI and PA however, Rs shouldn’t win supermajorities except in amazing years and Dems have good chances of getting trifectas in state government. Imo those are better investments. Same goes for AZ. I’m not saying Dems should just give up on WI but I don’t think it’s worth all of this to fight an ultimately losing battle for state government control.

Supermajorities are pretty much impossible for Republicans in MI and PA.  The assembly is also close to impossible in Wisconsin, although they are almost certain to get there in the senate this year.

A supermajority in the state assembly is def very possible for WI Rs, especially as the last few "rural" Dems are knocked off.

There are three Dems left in rural districts.  Two in the north and one outside Lacrosse.  Then there is a suburban Milwaukee seat that was made more Republicans that Dems will probably lose.  To actually get 66 would require winning the Steven’s Point district that Biden only won by six points, which I guess is certainly possible in this environment.

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/tony4wi/status/1580616619474227201?s=46&t=eUfQHwaY22Auaf...

Hopefully it's an Akin-esque moment that can help deliver Evers a win. It sounds bad enough. I just don't know if I trust Wisconsin to respond that way to it.

Is it just me, or do Atlas Dems seem to have a particular "distrust" of Wisconsin in a way they don't towards MI and PA. Is it because of how bad polling has been in Wisconsin?

Polling has had a worse Dem bias in WI than PA and MI.

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/AJBayatpour/status/1593758089039200256

The state Supreme Court allowing the Republican gerrymander of the state senate is what made the difference here.  Had the more neutral Evers map been chosen, Dems would have picked up the suburban Milwaukee seat (SD-05) to offset their loss up north to stay at 12 seats.

[Mr.Phips]

This is how Democrats flip this seat.

https://twitter.com/mollybeck/status/1599787848055521281?s=46&t=YG7BxUAa7gsT...

Seat is still quite polarized and Dems likely need an extreme turnout differential to win.

[Mr.Phips]

TIL that AG Josh Kaul is part-Indian. Is he the first Asian-American ever to hold statewide office in Wisconsin?

Hmm I thought he was Jewish.

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/mspicuzzamjs/status/1686750709931225088?s=46

I don’t see how any fairly drawn map would get Dems to majorities outside of a 2018 type year (that might not even do it), given how bad geography is for Dems here, but it should at least guarantee that Republicans don’t get a supermajority.  

Dems would get a new senate seat and probably two new assembly seats in Milwaukee county in the West Allis/Wauwatosa area and a compact senate seat in Green Bay and Brown county. 

In the Assembly, they’d get compact seats in Wausau, Sheboygan, and probably a second seat around Green Bay and Eau Claire.

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/mspicuzzamjs/status/1686750709931225088?s=46

I don’t see how any fairly drawn map would get Dems to majorities outside of a 2018 type year (that might not even do it), given how bad geography is for Dems here, but it should at least guarantee that Republicans don’t get a supermajority.  

under a fair map Democrats could easily get close to a majority in both chambers.

In most years, the senate would be around 19R-14D and the Assembly around 55R-44D.

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/mspicuzzamjs/status/1686750709931225088?s=46

I don’t see how any fairly drawn map would get Dems to majorities outside of a 2018 type year (that might not even do it), given how bad geography is for Dems here, but it should at least guarantee that Republicans don’t get a supermajority.  

under a fair map Democrats could easily get close to a majority in both chambers.

In most years, the senate would be around 19R-14D and the Assembly around 55R-44D.

Why those numbers?

Based on Dems getting two or three new seats in Green Bay, Milwaukee county, and maybe Appleton in the senate and getting around 10 more seats in the assembly spread throughout the state in the smaller cities that are currently cracked and in Brown and Milwaukee counties.