Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[Don Vito Corleone]

I've been on vacation and I haven't been following politics too much. How much do people actually care about the protests/blockades? Are the comparisons to the Winter of Discontent accurate, or is it something people will likely forget come the next news cycle?

[Don Vito Corleone]

The Prime Minister has often expressed his dislike for right wing populism. He would do well to understand that empty grocery stores and shortages of heating fuel (in Canada... in winter) will do more for right wing populism than a hundred Maxime Berniers ever could.

This is my big worry with regards to these blockades. However, I couldn't find any references to shortages in the article you linked.

[Don Vito Corleone]

Can Canadians explain to me why when Harper prorogued parliament when he held a minority it was this travesty of democracy that made international news, and when Trudeau did it to stop investigation of the WE Charity scandal from hurting the Liberal Party further in a minority parliament (as well as going back on a campaign promise) it's not even discussed here on this thread or board I believe, or makes larger news?

Harper move cancelled three months of Parliament sitting.
Trudeau move postponed the end of summer recess by a week.

Harper also prorogued Parliament to prevent an imminent defeat of his government with the other parties poised to take power, that wasn't the case with this prorogation.

It was still wrong, because the purpose of the Liberals was clearly to shut down the investigation into the WE charity scandal, but the anti-Democratic nature is much less serious.

Yeah, I've heard this complaint a lot, and I don't know why, considering the answer to the question is very obvious. Of course a prorogation to prevent an imminent fall of the Government is going to cause more controversy, what did you expect? Did you really think the media and posters on Atlas are going to treat the two situations the same when the situations are not even remotely the same? Or, am I meant to believe that Trudeau could do what Harper did and not get flak for it (LOL)?

[Don Vito Corleone]

Horrible expectations management by O'Toole and his team with pushing the "CaNadiAnS WoN'T gET the vACCInE till SePtEMbER 2021 At ThE EaRlIeSt AnD iT's tHE liBerALS faulT" narrative. Now that it was announced that Canada is getting atleast 250k doses by the end of the month vaccinating 125k people, Trudeau easily clears the ridiculously low expectations set by O'Toole. Complete incompetence by the Conservatives.

Hmmm, that does seem somewhat amateurish tbh.

Yeah. I mean it's only 125k people in a country of nearly 40 million, so there's still room for an attack if America and the UK are getting back to normal and we aren't, but they really should have approached the attack differently...

Honestly though, O'Toole ought to be hoping the vaccine rollout comes quickly, if only so we can get out of COVID-politics and into a more normal politics where people care about deficits and China again.

I'm not entirely convinced people will care much about deficits after everything is all said and done, but I think the feelings around China are going to be even worse than they were before, if such a thing were possible.

[Don Vito Corleone]

Horrible expectations management by O'Toole and his team with pushing the "CaNadiAnS WoN'T gET the vACCInE till SePtEMbER 2021 At ThE EaRlIeSt AnD iT's tHE liBerALS faulT" narrative. Now that it was announced that Canada is getting atleast 250k doses by the end of the month vaccinating 125k people, Trudeau easily clears the ridiculously low expectations set by O'Toole. Complete incompetence by the Conservatives.

Hmmm, that does seem somewhat amateurish tbh.

Yeah. I mean it's only 125k people in a country of nearly 40 million, so there's still room for an attack if America and the UK are getting back to normal and we aren't, but they really should have approached the attack differently...

Honestly though, O'Toole ought to be hoping the vaccine rollout comes quickly, if only so we can get out of COVID-politics and into a more normal politics where people care about deficits and China again.

I'm not entirely convinced people will care much about deficits after everything is all said and done, but I think the feelings around China are going to be even worse than they were before, if such a thing were possible.

Yes, which is why O'Toole really ought to be hammering it mext election. It's the rare issue that simultaneously:

a) Atrracts the sort of non-base voter he's going after

b) Keeps the base happy

c) The Liberal government has been very weak on* and is out of touch with most Canadians about

* Foreign policy isn't really somethinng I get passionate about, but to my eyes, it seems the Liberals haven't done the work to protect themselves on China they have on other issues. E.g. Not banning Huawei from 5G like the rest of the Five Eyes.

Additionally, the Liberal brand and corresponding actions are very much tied up in a sort of cosmopolitanism that can seem very naive when facing a geopolitical foe, to say nothing of the awkward comments certain Liberals have made on the issue.

I agree, it's definitely their best line of attack. The only even potential downside that I know of is that maybe it will turn off Chinese immigrants who tend to be quite patriotic about the old country, but I think most of the most heavily Chinese seats are Liberal anyway so it's definitely still a net benefit. What I am curious though is how the line will play in Atlantic Canada. As I'm sure you know first hand, that part of the country is incredibly swingy, and I've never been convinced that the Liberal strength out there is reliable due to that. If it does play well, the Tories could swing a good number of seats and make their lives a lot easier.

But really, I think the best thing about this line for them is that it helps them escape their perception as a Western-centric party. I don't have any data to back this up (not that there is much anyway in Canadian politics) but I am convinced the fact their 2019 campaign was so centered around the Western provinces is why they did so poorly East of Manitoba as opposed to any scares about Social Conservatism. Moving away from that perception is their first step to forming government, even if they lose next time (as I think they probably will).

[Don Vito Corleone]

I agree with whoever said O'Toole needs to pivot to talking about economic recovery. I think that is a more potent line of attack than anything actually related to the Pandemic by itself.

[Don Vito Corleone]

What on earth is happening to O'Toole? I don't think he's doing a terrible job, or at least bad enough to warrant his numbers. Can someone explain why they're so low? Is the Tory image problem just that bad?

[Don Vito Corleone]

What on earth is happening to O'Toole? I don't think he's doing a terrible job, or at least bad enough to warrant his numbers. Can someone explain why they're so low? Is the Tory image problem just that bad?

Within the Tories? I'd suggest a few things:

First, unlike Stephen Harper and to a lesser extent Andrew Scheer, he has failed to keep the various right-of-Blue-Tory factions happy, which were recently emboldened by the leadership race. There's a narrative that I've seen on Atlas and in the media that goes something like "X group is a small, shrinking minority in the Tories. They need to sit at the back of the bus and let the younger, socially progressive branch of the party set the tone and take their occasional scraps" and I think socons, nationalists etc had absorbed it to a certain extent. Then the leadership race happened, completely shattering the narrative. Sloan and especially Lewis, surpassed everyone's expectations and got more votes than than Peter MacKay (and anecdotally speaking, Lewis' crowd was decidedly younger and more diverse than say MacKay's). It's obvious that he got is job thanks to those further right groups. They know it and expect to be rewarded by O'Toole, which he generally hasn't.

Second, he's bounced around a lot between ideologies, which always annoys lots of people. He started as a soft red, then when his path to victory required running to the right of MacKay, he shifted to the "True Blue" doctrinaire orthodox conservative approach. Now that he's won the leadership, he's gone with a heterodox working class conservatism (which I think is the correct approach for a Tory leader for the record, but the jump from "True Blue" was jarring).

Lastly, a non-inside-Tory-baseball reason: For a lot of Tory voters, "do you approve of the leader" basically amounts to "is the leader beating Trudeau". O'Toole obviously isn't, so a lot of normie Tory voters are annoyed about that.

Everything you said makes sense, especially about how he's hurting from not besting Trudeau at present. I hadn't realized he was seen as having underserved the right-flank of the party. I will say, the idea that the SoCons were just going to roll over and allow McKay to win always seemed to ignore the fact that SoCons made up a disproportionate amount of both the membership and the donor base, and I assume they were aware of this fact.

[Don Vito Corleone]

Truly wonder what is going to happen next.

To all the canadians, who is going to win the next election for now?

Easily Trudeau, likely with a majority.  The conservatives have a serious geography problem.  They will win by huge margins in the Prairies and rural southern Ontario, but they will still lose in the GTA suburbs where it counts.

It also seems like a lot depends on what Quebec does. I think one of the most disappointing aspects of the 2019 election was the return of the Bloc. I watched some of the 2011 elections returns and the general thinking was "good riddance" to the Bloc. That may be true in terms of vote total for separatism, but certainly not true in terms of seats in the Commons.

Is it fair to assume Trudeau would've had a Majority Government had the Bloc not spiked so much?

I believe so, yes. It's not a sure thing to be certain, but the Liberals only needed 13 more seats to win a majority, and given the rise of the Bloc blocked (heh) them from picking up quite a few seats in Quebec that they quite rightly thought they would pick up, I think it's fair to assume that.

It is worth nothing though that the Bloc's actual support didn't come much from the Liberals, their support basically stayed flat. However, the Bloc was eating so much from the Tories that the Liberals previously had a lot of seats they could have won even with a low overall % due to the splits which they had to write off.

[Don Vito Corleone]

In the long run the Tories would have been better off had the PCs and Reform never merged. The differences between the Anglicized, urbane Atlantic PCs and the Americanized, populist Reformers (not to mention the Quebec separatists) are too great to be bridged by any but the most skilled politicians (and even Harper's coalition was falling apart by the end). It would make far more sense for two separate right of center parties to focus on the regions they're best at while strategically not running candidates in key swing ridings (presumably after negotiations and/or local primaries).

But how would not merging change anything? You would still need to bridge the divide between the various strains of Conservatism in Canada; the only difference is now they are in separate parties as well. It's not like this was new either; the pre-1993 PCs also suffered from regionalism that harmed their electoral chances. FWIW, your idea of having different Conservative Parties run in various regions was actually proposed but was shot down.

[Don Vito Corleone]

In the long run the Tories would have been better off had the PCs and Reform never merged. The differences between the Anglicized, urbane Atlantic PCs and the Americanized, populist Reformers (not to mention the Quebec separatists) are too great to be bridged by any but the most skilled politicians (and even Harper's coalition was falling apart by the end). It would make far more sense for two separate right of center parties to focus on the regions they're best at while strategically not running candidates in key swing ridings (presumably after negotiations and/or local primaries).

But how would not merging change anything? You would still need to bridge the divide between the various strains of Conservatism in Canada; the only difference is now they are in separate parties as well. It's not like this was new either; the pre-1993 PCs also suffered from regionalism that harmed their electoral chances. FWIW, your idea of having different Conservative Parties run in various regions was actually proposed but was shot down.

You don't need to bridge the divide. Just let the PC-equivalent run a center right UK Tory style campaign that runs on a carbon tax and beating down SoCons for those key upper middle class urban/suburban votes while the Reform-equivalent runs with all the policies that let it dominate the Prairies and that (especially recently) provided inroads in postindustrial ex-NDP regions like Essex and Oshawa.

As it stands a single Tory leader is forced to choose between their base and growth, whereas two Tory leaders could get both. If anything being divided is a good thing, since that makes it harder for Trudeau to do his usual trick of painting the Tories as Republicans to alienate centrist suburbanites.

What? You don't mean to tell me you think you can have two parties run as one and not change anything in either party surely? Come on now. They would have to mash out an understanding between each other or any coalition would fall apart before it formed. For instance, if the PCs ran on a carbon tax as you say, how do you think their Reform/Alliance partners would take it? Do you think they'd just accept it as is? No, of course not! The two parties would have to sit down and figure out what they collectively stood for; in order for them to function as one party they'd have to... function as one party. And if you're going to do that, why not just merge? Especially since A) If you act as one party people will treat you as one party and B) The PCs were on life support anyway.

[Don Vito Corleone]

1.  Notley wins in Alberta even against a united right.

Not only is this quite likely, but I think it probably will happen. Honestly, I think the whole vote-splitting element was severely overrated; that 2015 Election was much more a "kick the bums out" election than anything on a left-right spectrum. I don't have the polling on me, but I recall a poll from right before the election where the 2nd choice of Wildrose voters was, in order the NDP, not voting, and only then the PCs.

2.  Liberals in 2025 under Freeland make a big breakthrough in Alberta (she is originally from there)

The Liberals making a breakthrough in Alberta is certainly possible, but if it happens it will probably be in the expected election this year, with the Tories down massively in Alberta from 2019 and the Liberals up massively. I don't see why they would break through in 2025 if they don't this year. I know that Freeland has roots out there, but I seriously doubt many people will care, especially given she doesn't even represent a seat in the West nevermind Alberta. It reminds me of the whole argument I heard from Bernier backers in 2017 that he'd break through in Quebec, but even that one made more sense as unlike Alberta Quebec does have a noted favourite-son effect.

3.  NDP beats Tories in votes in next election.
4.  Tories get under 25% of the popular vote.

Absolutely not, these are simply not happening. Even the best polls for the NDP/Worst polls for the Tories don't have this occuring.

5.  Liberals remain in government continuously past 2030

I mean, it's possible I guess? But it's not very likely either. When people make these sorts of claims I don't think they quite realize how many more times the Liberals would have to win. Let's start in 2021. There probably will be an election this year and the Liberals probably will win a majority. That gets you to 2025. At that point, the Liberals have been in for 10 years, and that's around the time a "time for change" message starts to resonate. It is totally possible the Liberals win 2025 still, but I doubt it's with a majority. Even if you grant them a majority, that still only gets you to 2029, so they'd have to win a 5th straight election 14 years into their tenure, which I just don't see. In short, it's possible, but every possible thing would have to go right for them, so don't count on it.

[Don Vito Corleone]

5. History suggests this is unlikely. The last time one party was consecutively in power for that long were the 1963-1979 Pearson-Trudeau governments, and this was back when the Liberals could count on winning the vast majority of Quebec seats every year. Of course there's a possibility that we have Conservatives winning minorities and the NDP propping up the Grits. But let's not forget, Saint-Jack-de-la-Vague-Orange once brought down a Liberal government and gave way to Harper. The NDP won't play second fiddle forever.

Yes, proponents of the "Long Liberal" theory make two big mistakes:

1) Expecting the current Liberal-friendly situation to last forever, or at least a very long time. The Liberals have another ten years to go to make it past 2030. The economy will almost certainly downturn, and scandals will come up as they always do for governments. New issues will emerge which might be less friendly to the Liberals or which they might misplay. Think of how different the national conversation was in May 2011 vs May 2021. Heck think of how different it was in February 2020!

2) Treating the NDP as a set of emergency backup seats for the Liberals instead of as its own party with its own set of interests and goals. There isn't some unified progressive movement that will move in lockstep to stop the evil right, as much as some Very Online folks might wish it to be so.

In addition to what you said, I think also they forget two other things:

1) Just how elastic the Canadian electorate is. If the Canadian electorate was like the British electorate and we were still getting the same polls we are, I could understand this line of thinking a bit more, but of course the Canadian electorate is like the Canadian electorate. The Tories could get utterly decimated in the upcoming election, win a seat count somewhere in the 50s, and then win 2025 with a majority. In an environment like that, I would very strongly caution against making long term predictions. After all, you don't want to end up like those people who predicted Tory dominance and the death of the Liberals after 2011.

2) In relation to that last point, just how much campaigns matter in Canada. There are countless, countless examples of elections getting turned on their head during the campaign period. In 2011, in a very best case scenario, the NDP thought they could win 5 seats in Quebec. They ended up winning 59. In a similar vein, before the 1984 campaign, I read an article in the Maclean's archive where a senior Tory strategist was worried about the rise in Liberal fortunes in Quebec since Turner's election as leader because they had "hoped to win as many as 15 seats" in the province. They ended up winning 58. Since Miles mentioned the Notely NDP, how many people do you think would have predicted an NDP majority before the election? Stephen Harper looking to be losing the 2006 election until about halfway through. And for god's sake, Justin Trudeau himself went from third place to a majority government over the course of a campaign! Again, in an environment like that, I would strongly caution against long-term predictions of electoral dominance by one party.

[Don Vito Corleone]

Fun fact about that referendum: Gilles Duceppe spoiled his ballot. Instead of voting yes or no he wrote about the need for Quebecers to focus on the real enemy: Capitalism.

[Don Vito Corleone]

For all of Miles's postings about how Canada has moved to the left, what has really changed? What have we got out of it? Is it just that the Liberals are in a very strong position and the Tories in a very weak one? That's hardly a rare or new occurrence. Is it just that people are more #woke (hate using that term but I can't think of a better one) and are less concerned with deficits? Well, that is true, but I hardly think that merits the constant talk of eternal Liberal dominion, especially considering even with a very weak Tory Party the Liberals only have about even odds of a majority at present.

[Don Vito Corleone]

We've talked before about how Anglo pols sound in French, particularly in the last two Tory leadership races. Turning the question around a bit, how do Trudeau, Blanchet and Bernier sound in French? How about Jean Chretien or Gilles Duceppe?

Obviously they're all fluent, but I'm curious about their class/regional aspects of their accents.

Bernier, Blanchet and Duceppe speak perfectly "educated" French (except when they purposely decide to sound working-class, which is not uncommon for Blanchet). Trudeau has a poor vocabulary and often uses anglicisms or false friends and wierd sentence structures. Jean Chretien spoke a working class French (sometimes sounding wierd due to his speech/face paralysis issue).

Didn't Chretien get some criticism for speaking a working-class/hick French and validating the supposed stereotypes Anglos have of Quebec?

He did, yeah.

[Don Vito Corleone]

By all accounts, the Liberals are a declining party over the course of Canadian history. Long gone are the days of inevitable Liberal majorities and sweeping the entirety of Quebec, the LPC has an increasingly narrow path to victory these days. The provincial Liberal brand has all but collapsed in the prairies, their future in Ontario and Quebec looks uncertain, and the BC Liberals are effectively successors of the Social Credit movement. And yet, their principal opponents at the federal level consistently struggle to capitalize on it.

This is something which I think is forgotten too much in discussions about a 1000 year Grit Reich. This is not the Liberal Party of Louis St. Laurent. I often point out to my friends when discussing this that even with everything going on in their main opposition party, the Liberals are still only at about 50-50 odds to win a majority. I know I say this a lot but I really think some people are going way too far in some of the things they say about the future strength of the Liberal Party.

[Don Vito Corleone]

This was bound to happen... only depressed cat ladies and wine moms want covid protocols to continue

...and the majority of Canadians, when polled. Oops.

Not quite:
https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1488206488300666889

[Don Vito Corleone]

They are going to end up barring people from banking for life, without due process
https://twitter.com/drrollergator/status/1493738584884404227?s=20&t=owkJARet...

There should be a general strike in Canada

There won't be, most people don't stand with the far right convoy people.

I mean, I think the proper redress for this is court cases, not riots or strikes, but I can't see how this doesn't make your side wildly vulnerable under the next right-wing government. Just doesn't seem like a power governments should have.

How are governments supposed to deal with emergencies then, Ray?

Look I have no love for the FreedomConvoy but don't the extensive emergency powers being invoked right now worry you at all? Say what you will about the FreedomConvoy, they're not the FLQ; they're not roaming around abducting and murdering people.

[Don Vito Corleone]

They are going to end up barring people from banking for life, without due process
https://twitter.com/drrollergator/status/1493738584884404227?s=20&t=owkJARet...

There should be a general strike in Canada

There won't be, most people don't stand with the far right convoy people.

I mean, I think the proper redress for this is court cases, not riots or strikes, but I can't see how this doesn't make your side wildly vulnerable under the next right-wing government. Just doesn't seem like a power governments should have.

How are governments supposed to deal with emergencies then, Ray?

Look I have no love for the FreedomConvoy but don't the extensive emergency powers being invoked right now worry you at all? Say what you will about the FreedomConvoy, they're not the FLQ; they're not roaming around abducting and murdering people.

In theory it worries me, but in practicality it does not. The Ottawa Police have clearly demonstrated that - for whatever reason - they are not willing to deal with this properly. SOMEBODY needs to. Unfortunate that it had to be Trudeau and not Ottawa / Doug Ford.

That is true, if the local authorities did their job we wouldn't be having this conversation. Still, as a good liberal, I'm very very wary of appeals to "Law and Order".

[Don Vito Corleone]

I dunno, this is a guy who has said in the past that the BC NDP, the BC Liberals, and Justin Trudeau all classify as "far-left", so if that's any sign he's pretty hardline.