The Official 2020 Census Thread

[jimrtex]

There are 15(of 245) ACO as of collection date September 23 which are at 98% NRFU completion, which means over 99% total completion. Beckley, WV and Parsippany, NJ were left off this list.

Honolulu, HI (Hawaii)
West Covina, CA (San Gabriel Valley)
Boise, ID (Idaho)
Harris County NW, TX (outside FM-1960 and TX-6)
Wichita, KS (Kansas except northeastern corner)
Fayetteville, AC (southwestern half of Arkansas - cut on NW to SE diagonal)
New Orleans, LA (extreme southeastern Louisiana)
Mansfield, OH (northeast Ohio, excluding Cleveland, Akron, Youngstown)
South Point, OH (southeastern Ohio)
Beckley, WV (West Virginia)
Fairfax, VA (Loudoun and western part of Fairfax)
Cranberry Township, PA (western Pennsylvania, excluding Allegheny)
State College, PA (central swath of Pennsylvania)
Parsippany, NJ (northwestern New Jersey)
Gardiner, ME (Maine)

Five more ACO were added on September 24, bringing the total to 20 of 245. However, it appears that Savannah, GA has retrogressed.

Seattle, WA (western King County, Shoreline to Federal Way)
Olympia, OR (western Washington, Olympic Peninsula to Vancouver)
Evansville, IN (southern Indiana)
Savannah, GA (southeastern Georgia)
Burlington, VT (Burlington)

Seven more ACO reached on September 25, bringing the total to 26 of 245 (10.6%)

Tacoma, WA (Pierce and southeastern King: Renton, Kent, Auburn)
Salem, WA (northwestern Oregon, except Multnomah and Clackamas)
Williamson County, TX (doughnut around Travis)
Houston West, TX (Between Katy Freeway (I-10) and Brays Bayou, west of West Loop (I-610).
Oklahoma County, OK (northwestern Oklahoma, including Oklahoma and Canadian counties)
Eau Claire, WI (northern Wisconsin)
Madison, WI (southwestern Wisconsin)

Added on September 26 (Waltham, MA likely reached earlier; Savannah, GA reaches second time). 11 added to reach total of 36 (14.7%)

Pasadena, CA (Pasadena, Glendale, East LA, downtown LA)
Austin, TX (Travis)
Harris County East, TX (between East Freeway (I-10) and Gulf Freeway (I-45)
Harris County Northeast, TX (between East Freeway (I-10) and North Freeway (I-45)
Houston Northwest, TX (inside TX-6 and FM-1960)
Denton County, TX (north central Texas, including Denton, Parker, and Wichita Falls)
Minneapolis, MN (Hennepin)
Knoxville, TN (eastern Tennessee)
Nashville, TN (greater Nashville)
Savannah, GA (southeastern Georgia)
Waltham, MA (Middlesex)

Added on September 27 (the three San Antonio ACO likely reached 98% a few days ago). 6 added to reach total of 42 (17.1%).

Everett, WA (Snohomish north to border, plus Northeast King (Bellvue, Redmond, Kirkland)
San Antonio North, TX (northern Bexar)
San Antonio West, TX (western Bexar)
San Antonio East, TX (eastern Bexar)
Collin County, TX (north central Texas, including Collin, Grayson, Rockwall, Kaufman counties)
Fort Wayne, IN (northeastern Indiana)

Added on September 28, 31 ACO added to reach 79 (32.2% of total).

Anchorage, AK (Alaska)
Portland, OR (Multnomah and Clackamas)
Sunnyvale, CA (Northern Santa Clara County)
Pleasanton, CA (Alameda County, excluding Oakland and northward)
Sacramento, CA (Sacramento County, excluding southern part)
Santa Clarita, CA (Northern Los Angeles County, including northern San Fernando Valley)
Woodland Hills, CA (Western Los Angeles County, includes Burbank, Beverly Hills, parts of San Fernando Valley)
Fullerton, CA (inland Orange County)
Santa Ana, CA (coastal Orange County)
Vista, CA (North (San Diego) County)
San Diego, CA (southwestern San Diego County, including core of San Diego city)
Orem, UT (southern Utah, including Provo)
Salt Lake City, UT (northern Utah, including Salt Lake)
Colorado North, CO (northern Front Range, northeastern and northwestern Colorado)
Arlington, TX (eastern Tarrant County)
Kansas City, MO (northern Missouri, including Kansas City)
Little Rock, AR (northeastern half of Arkansas, sliced on NW-SE diagonal)
Green Bay, WI (eastern Wisconsin, excluding Milwaukee - Kenosha to Green Bay)
Columbus, OH (Franklin County)
Dayton, OH (southwestern Ohio, excluding Hamilton County and other areas along Ohio River)
Lake County, IN (northwestern Indiana)
Dekalb, IL (Northern Illinois, Winnebago to Lake, plus Dekalb and Kane counties)
Gainesville, FL (north central Florida, excludes Tallahassee and Jacksonville)
Hagerstown, MD (Montgomery, Howard, Frederick counties and panhandle)
Pittsburh, PA (Allegheny County)
Harrisburg, PA (south central Pennsylvania, including Harrisburg, Lancaster, and York)
Trenton, NJ (central New Jersey, Mercer, Middlesex, and Somerset counties)
Pawling, NY (southern Upstate, excluding Westchester and Putnam counties)
Danbury, CT (Fairfield and Litchfield counties)
Hartford, CT (Hartford, Tolland, Windham, and New London counties)
Concord, NH (New Hampshire)

[jimrtex]

For what it's worth

There's something happening here
What it is ain't exactly clear

Minneapolis NRFU last five days: 97.7%, 97.7%, 96.2%, 98.2%, 98.1%

Probably an early ice storm, and enumerator is on a hill and having trouble getting traction.

It appears collection picked up on Monday, this appears to be bigger than simply a weekday increase. I think they may have removed the auditing portion of the NRFU workload from the denominator.

Let's say that there are 600,000 housing units, and 2/3 or 400,000 had self-responded.

During NRFU, another 1% self-respond reducing the NRFU workload by 6000. So the NRFU denominator is 194,000. 184,000 of those are completed, so NRFU completion is 94.8%, and overall completion is 98.3%.

Now let's say that 5000 housing units have to be audited. A small percentage of those that appear normal including self-responses. If the effort of particular enumerator appear bogus, they might recheck them all. Maybe he got lazy and skipped a few and submitted responses at Starbuck's (well maybe he was careless elsewhere), but everything might be checked.

So now the NRFU workload increases to 199,000 with 184,000 cases still open (10,000 incomplete and 5000 to be audited). The NRFU rate drops to 92.5%. The next day they finish 5000 incomplete cases, and complete 1000 audits.

So they have actually enumerated 595,000 of 600,000 housing units (or 99.2%).

NRFU completion is 190,000 of 199,000 (95.5%), only 0.7% above where they were, even though they finished half of the remaining housing units. But if they count simple completions they would have 189,000 of 194,000 (97.4% NRFU completion).

I read a little bit of the lawsuit. There were some e-mails to court from enumerators who perhaps envisioned themselves as whistle-blowers. One was working in the Glendale ACO. The Census Bureau noted that the ACO was 99.7% completed, and the 900-or-so open cases could be handled by the 98 enumerators they retained (the other enumerators had apparently been terminated - there should be around 800-1000 enumerators per ACO). The enumerator who sent the e-mail may have thought they would be able to work through October 31. Another was apparently a group quarters enumerator, but that has been completed.

Another was from the Santa Rosa, CA ACO which is on the northern coast from Marin County to the Oregon border. It was complaining that enumerators were being sent to Medocino County - the e-mail complained that there were still fires burning. This indicates that enumerators are being moved across ACO. In more rural areas, there may be more people living in unconventional living quarters - school buses, tree houses, barns, etc., and some dwellings that are unequivocally primary or secondary residences. The dwellings are further apart. It is simply not as simple as houses along a suburban street or in an apartment building.

Louisiana and Mississippi have intervened as defendants, but with a separate interest from the Census Bureau. This may have something to do with the odd-year legislative elections.

[cinyc]

98.7% total enumeration rate in today’s report. The self-response rate remains at 66.5%.

[jimrtex]

98.7% total enumeration rate in today’s report. The self-response rate remains at 66.5%.

Total = Self + (1 -Self) * NRFU
98.7 = 66.5 + (1 - 66.5) * NRFU

Solving for NRFU = 96.4%.

For data date September 26: 93.2%
September 28: 95.2%
September 29: 96.4%

Nationwide, October 5 is eminently feasible.

Alternatively 1.3% x 150 million = 1.95 million un-enumerated

divide by 220,000 enumerators = 8.86 cases per enumerator.

Assuming an enumerator can do 4 visits per day, that would be 24 visits by October 5.

There will be distributional inefficiencies but October 5 will be OK except about 10 ACO.

[cinyc]

98.7% total enumeration rate in today’s report. The self-response rate remains at 66.5%.

Total = Self + (1 -Self) * NRFU
98.7 = 66.5 + (1 - 66.5) * NRFU

Solving for NRFU = 96.4%.

For data date September 26: 93.2%
September 28: 95.2%
September 29: 96.4%

Nationwide, October 5 is eminently feasible.

Alternatively 1.3% x 150 million = 1.95 million un-enumerated

divide by 220,000 enumerators = 8.86 cases per enumerator.

Assuming an enumerator can do 4 visits per day, that would be 24 visits by October 5.

There will be distributional inefficiencies but October 5 will be OK except about 10 ACO.

October 5th probably won’t be the last date because the lower court judge is going to enjoin that date again, and...

https://twitter.com/tomtmwolf/status/1311387487982452736?s=21

[jimrtex]

98.7% total enumeration rate in today’s report. The self-response rate remains at 66.5%.

Total = Self + (1 -Self) * NRFU
98.7 = 66.5 + (1 - 66.5) * NRFU

Solving for NRFU = 96.4%.

For data date September 26: 93.2%
September 28: 95.2%
September 29: 96.4%

Nationwide, October 5 is eminently feasible.

Alternatively 1.3% x 150 million = 1.95 million un-enumerated

divide by 220,000 enumerators = 8.86 cases per enumerator.

Assuming an enumerator can do 4 visits per day, that would be 24 visits by October 5.

There will be distributional inefficiencies but October 5 will be OK except about 10 ACO.

October 5th probably won’t be the last date because the lower court judge is going to enjoin that date again, and...

https://twitter.com/tomtmwolf/status/1311387487982452736?s=21

The 9th Circuit was a 2-1 decision. It did not grant an administrative stay, but could by the time the briefs are submitted.

[jimrtex]

ACO's that need to average 2.0% or more daily to reach 98% of the NRFU workload by September 30. Report day September 28, data day September 27. 92.0% or less.

This reflects completions made on a Sunday, the weakest day of the week. It also appears the the NRFU workload was being adjusted for auditing units.

New ACO: Detroit, MI; Milwaukee, WI; Cleveland, OH; Eugene, OR; Washington, DC; Sioux Falls, SD; Flagstaff, AZ; Chico, CA; Boston, MA; Brooklyn 4, NY; Gulfport, MS; Allentown, PA; Lansing, MI; Shelbyville, TN; Montgomery County, TX; Fort Myers, FL; and Macon, GA.

The 58 ACO at highest risk represent 23.7% of all ACO. Average daily gain is 1.39%, so few are likely to reach 98% by the end of the month.

Average rate is for seven days (rolling average).

72.1 (1.83%, 10/11) Shreveport, LA (western and northern Louisiana)
73.7 (1.66%, 10/11) Window Rock, AZ (Navajo reservation)
79.5 (2.01%, 10/6) Columbus, GA (southern Georgia)
82.3 (1.40%, 10/8) Mobile, AL (southern Alabama)
82.4 (1.89%, 10/5) Birmingham, AL (central Alabama)
83.3 (1.64%, 10/6) Jackson, MS (western and northern Mississippi)
83.7 (1.60%, 10/6) Pensacola, FL (Redneck Riviera)
84.1 (1.61%, 10/5) Gwinnett County, GA (Gwinnett and points east)
85.2 (1.29%, 10/6) Huntsville, AL (northern Alabama)
85.3 (1.50%, 10/5) Durham, NC (north central, includes Greensboro, but not Raleigh or Winston-Salem)
85.5 (1.59%, 10/4) Colorado Springs, CO (southern Colorado)
85.8 (1.60%, 10/4) Charleston, SC (Low Country, South Carolina)
86.3 (1.36%, 10/5) Columbia, SC (Midlands)
86.7 (1.66%, 10/3) Douglasville, GA (western Atlanta suburbs and points west.
87.1 (1.27%, 10/5) Lakeland, FL (south central peninsula)
87.3 (1.33%, 10/4) Tampa, FL (Hillsborough County)
87.7 (1.77%, 10/2) Philadelphia-Penn, PA (north Philadelphia)
87.8 (1.56%, 10/3) Billings, MT (Montana)
87.9 (1.27%, 10/4) Seminole County, FL (Seminole, Volusia, Brevard counties)
88.6 (1.46%, 10/3) Tulsa, OK (northeast Oklahoma)
88.7 (1.73%, 10/2) Greenville, NC (eastern North Carolina)
88.8 (1.74%, 10/2) Maricopa West, AZ (Glendale and westward)
88.9 (1.50%, 10/2) Philadelphia-Franklin, PA (south and west Philadelphia)
89.0 (1.59%, 10/2) Atlanta, GA (Fulton County)
89.1 (1.36%, 10/3) Winston-Salem, NC (northwestern North Carolina)
89.1 (1.50%, 10/2) Fort Bend County, TX (southern Houston suburbs, and down to Victoria)
89.2 (1.04%, 10/4) Louisville, KY (western Kentucky)
89.2 (1.06%, 10/5) Memphis, TN (far western Tennessee)
89.4 (1.40%, 10/3) Jacksonville, FL (Duval, Nassau, Baker counties)
89.5 (1.53%, 10/2) Brooklyn 1, NY (eastern Brooklyn)
89.6 (1.60%, 10/2) Baton Rouge, LA (Baton Rouge and areas to east and west)
90.0 (1.46%, 10/2) Baltimore, MD (Baltimore City)
90.6 (0.99%, 10/3) Santa Rosa, CA (North Coast California)
90.6 (1.30%, 10/2) Tucson, AZ (southern Arizona)
90.6 (1.31%, 10/2) Fredericksburg, VA (northern Virginia, excluding Loudoun, Fairfax, Arlington counties, Alexandria)
90.6 (1.43%, 10/2) Fayetteville, NC (southeastern North Carolina)
90.7 (1.17%, 10/3) Gainesville, GA (nothern Georgia)
90.7 (1.21%, 10/2) Ocala, FL (north central Peninsula)
90.7 (1.39%, 10/2) Akron, OH (northeastern Ohio)
91.0 (1.49%, 10/1) West Palm Beach, FL (Palm Beach and Martin counties)
91.1 (1.26%, 10/2) Detroit, MI (Wayne County)
91.2 (1.09%, 10/2) Milwaukee, WI (Milwaukee County)
91.3 (1.51%, 10/1) Albuquerque, NM (northern New Mexico, except Navajo Reservation)
91.5 (1.61%, 9/30) Cleveland, OH (Cuyahoga, excluding outer suburbs)
91.7 (0.71%, 10/4) Eugene, OR (southern and eastern Oregon)
91.7 (0.94%, 10/2) Washington, DC (District of Columbia)
91.7 (1.00%, 10/3) Sioux Falls, SD (South Dakota)
91.7 (1.13%, 10/2) Flagstaff, AZ (northern Arizona)
91.7 (1.26%, 10/1) Chico, CA (Inland Northern California)
91.8 (0.87%, 10/3) Boston, MA (Suffolk County)
91.8 (0.90%, 10/3) Brooklyn 4, NY (southwestern Brooklyn)
91.8 (1.13%, 10/2) Gulfport, MS (southern Mississippi)
91.8 (1.26%, 10/1) Allentown, PA (northeastern Pennsylvania)
91.9 (1.31%, 10/1) Lansing, MI (southern Michigan)
92.0 (1.03%, 10/2) Shelbyville, TN (central and western Tennessee, except Nashville and Memphis)
92.0 (1.16%, 10/1) Montgomery County, TX (southeastern Texas)
92.0 (1.44%, 10/1) Fort Myers, FL (Manatee, Sarasota, Charlotte, Lee)
92.0 (1.83%, 9/30) Macon, GA (central Georgia, south-central from Atlanta perspective)

This is a secondary group that need to average 1.5% or more daily to reach 98% of the NRFU workload by September 30. Report day September 28, data day September 27. Between 92.0% and 93.5%.

Chicago Central, IL; Bronx 2, NY; Toledo, OH; Brooklyn 2, NY; Des Moines, IA; Bronx 1, NY;
Houston South, TX; Miami North, FL; Cook County South, IL; Palm Springs, CA; Charlotte, NC; Riverside, CA; and Springfield, IL were added while 17 ACO's moved to the more severe category. The average daily increase is 1.11%, a significant drop from previous days.

The 24 ACO at moderate risk represent 9.8% of all ACO.

92.1 (0.87%, 10/3) Stockton, CA (San Joaquin, southern Sacramento, Central Sierras)
92.1 (1.50%, 9/30) Maricopa Central, AZ (Glendale and points west)
92.2 (0.81%, 10/3) Southgate, CA (South Central, Huntington Park, Compton)
92.3 (1.54%, 9/30) Lexington, KY (eastern Kentucky)
92.4 (0.71%, 10/3) Chicago Central, IL (Central-northish Chicago)
92.5 (1.14%, 10/1) Asheville, NC (western North Carolina)
92.5 (1.17%, 10/1) Richmond, VA (Southeastern Virginia excluding Hampton Roads)
92.5 (1.33%, 10/1) Greenville, SC (Upcountry South Carolina)
92.7 (0.71%, 10/4) Bronx 2, NY (southern, western Bronx)
92.8 (1.07%, 10/1) Miami South, FL (southern Miami-Dade and Monroe)
92.9 (0.91%, 10/2) Toledo, OH (northwestern Ohio)
93.0 (0.84%, 10/2) Bakersfield, CA (Kern, Tulare, King, Fresno, excluding city of Fresno, counties)
93.0 (1.21%, 10/1) Brooklyn 2, NY (southwest Brooklyn)
93.0 (1.34%, 9/30) Melville, NY (Suffolk County)
93.0 (1.60%, 9/30) Des Moines, IA (Iowa)
93.1 (1.03%, 10/1) Bronx 1, NY (northern, eastern Bronx)
93.1 (1.04%, 10/1) Houston South, TX (south of Brays Bayou, West Loop (I-610), Katy Freeway (I-10), Gulf Freeway (I-45))
93.1 (1.27%, 9/30) Miami North, FL (northern Miami-Dade)
93.2 (0.83%, 10/2) Cook County South, IL (Southern Cook County, including far southern Chicago)
93.2 (0.97%, 10/1) Palm Springs, CA (Riverside County, excluding western end and Imperial)
93.2 (1.30%, 9/30) Charlotte, NC (Mecklenburg and Union counties)
93.4 (0.99%, 10/1) Riverside, CA (western Riverside County)
93.4 (1.30%, 9/30) Springfield, IL (southern Illinois)
93.5 (1.24%, 9/29) Newark, NJ (eastern Essex County)

[jimrtex]

There are 15(of 245) ACO as of collection date September 23 which are at 98% NRFU completion, which means over 99% total completion. Beckley, WV and Parsippany, NJ were left off this list.

Honolulu, HI (Hawaii)
West Covina, CA (San Gabriel Valley)
Boise, ID (Idaho)
Harris County NW, TX (outside FM-1960 and TX-6)
Wichita, KS (Kansas except northeastern corner)
Fayetteville, AC (southwestern half of Arkansas - cut on NW to SE diagonal)
New Orleans, LA (extreme southeastern Louisiana)
Mansfield, OH (northeast Ohio, excluding Cleveland, Akron, Youngstown)
South Point, OH (southeastern Ohio)
Beckley, WV (West Virginia)
Fairfax, VA (Loudoun and western part of Fairfax)
Cranberry Township, PA (western Pennsylvania, excluding Allegheny)
State College, PA (central swath of Pennsylvania)
Parsippany, NJ (northwestern New Jersey)
Gardiner, ME (Maine)

Five more ACO were added on September 24, bringing the total to 20 of 245. However, it appears that Savannah, GA has retrogressed.

Seattle, WA (western King County, Shoreline to Federal Way)
Olympia, OR (western Washington, Olympic Peninsula to Vancouver)
Evansville, IN (southern Indiana)
Savannah, GA (southeastern Georgia)
Burlington, VT (Burlington)

Seven more ACO reached on September 25, bringing the total to 26 of 245 (10.6%)

Tacoma, WA (Pierce and southeastern King: Renton, Kent, Auburn)
Salem, WA (northwestern Oregon, except Multnomah and Clackamas)
Williamson County, TX (doughnut around Travis)
Houston West, TX (Between Katy Freeway (I-10) and Brays Bayou, west of West Loop (I-610).
Oklahoma County, OK (northwestern Oklahoma, including Oklahoma and Canadian counties)
Eau Claire, WI (northern Wisconsin)
Madison, WI (southwestern Wisconsin)

Added on September 26 (Waltham, MA likely reached earlier; Savannah, GA reaches second time). 11 added to reach total of 36 (14.7%)

Pasadena, CA (Pasadena, Glendale, East LA, downtown LA)
Austin, TX (Travis)
Harris County East, TX (between East Freeway (I-10) and Gulf Freeway (I-45)
Harris County Northeast, TX (between East Freeway (I-10) and North Freeway (I-45)
Houston Northwest, TX (inside TX-6 and FM-1960)
Denton County, TX (north central Texas, including Denton, Parker, and Wichita Falls)
Minneapolis, MN (Hennepin)
Knoxville, TN (eastern Tennessee)
Nashville, TN (greater Nashville)
Savannah, GA (southeastern Georgia)
Waltham, MA (Middlesex)

Added on September 27 (the three San Antonio ACO likely reached 98% a few days ago). 6 added to reach total of 42 (17.1%).

Everett, WA (Snohomish north to border, plus Northeast King (Bellvue, Redmond, Kirkland)
San Antonio North, TX (northern Bexar)
San Antonio West, TX (western Bexar)
San Antonio East, TX (eastern Bexar)
Collin County, TX (north central Texas, including Collin, Grayson, Rockwall, Kaufman counties)
Fort Wayne, IN (northeastern Indiana)

Added on September 28, 31 ACO added to reach 79 (32.2% of total).

Anchorage, AK (Alaska)
Portland, OR (Multnomah and Clackamas)
Sunnyvale, CA (Northern Santa Clara County)
Pleasanton, CA (Alameda County, excluding Oakland and northward)
Sacramento, CA (Sacramento County, excluding southern part)
Santa Clarita, CA (Northern Los Angeles County, including northern San Fernando Valley)
Woodland Hills, CA (Western Los Angeles County, includes Burbank, Beverly Hills, parts of San Fernando Valley)
Fullerton, CA (inland Orange County)
Santa Ana, CA (coastal Orange County)
Vista, CA (North (San Diego) County)
San Diego, CA (southwestern San Diego County, including core of San Diego city)
Orem, UT (southern Utah, including Provo)
Salt Lake City, UT (northern Utah, including Salt Lake)
Colorado North, CO (northern Front Range, northeastern and northwestern Colorado)
Arlington, TX (eastern Tarrant County)
Kansas City, MO (northern Missouri, including Kansas City)
Little Rock, AR (northeastern half of Arkansas, sliced on NW-SE diagonal)
Green Bay, WI (eastern Wisconsin, excluding Milwaukee - Kenosha to Green Bay)
Columbus, OH (Franklin County)
Dayton, OH (southwestern Ohio, excluding Hamilton County and other areas along Ohio River)
Lake County, IN (northwestern Indiana)
Dekalb, IL (Northern Illinois, Winnebago to Lake, plus Dekalb and Kane counties)
Gainesville, FL (north central Florida, excludes Tallahassee and Jacksonville)
Hagerstown, MD (Montgomery, Howard, Frederick counties and panhandle)
Pittsburh, PA (Allegheny County)
Harrisburg, PA (south central Pennsylvania, including Harrisburg, Lancaster, and York)
Trenton, NJ (central New Jersey, Mercer, Middlesex, and Somerset counties)
Pawling, NY (southern Upstate, excluding Westchester and Putnam counties)
Danbury, CT (Fairfield and Litchfield counties)
Hartford, CT (Hartford, Tolland, Windham, and New London counties)
Concord, NH (New Hampshire)

Added on September 29. 11 added to reach 90 (36.7% of total)

San Francisco, CA (San Francisco, except for southern part)
Oakland, CA (northwestern Alameda, western Contra Costa counties)
Long Beach, CA (southeastern Los Angeles County)
El Cajon, CA (San Diego County, excluding coast)
Waco, TX (Central Texas)
Fort Worth, TX (western Tarrant County)
Indianapolis, IN (Marion, Hancock, Hamilton, Boone, and Hendricks counties)
Staten Island, NY (Staten Island)
Rochester, NY (Western New York, excluding Erie and Niagara counties)
Albany, NY (northeastern New York)
New Haven, CT (New Haven and Middlesex counties)
Worcester, MA (central and western Massachusetts)

[cinyc]

98.9% total enumeration rate as of yesterday’s report. The self-reporting rate is now 66.6% - above 2010’s final rate.

[jimrtex]

ACO's that need to average 2.0% or more daily to reach 98% of the NRFU workload by September 30. Report day September 29, data day September 28. 94.0% or less.

This includes Monday, which was up 1.49% vs 0.99% for Sunday.

New ACO: Bronx 2, NY; Stockton, CA; Southgate, CA; Brooklyn 2, NY; Greenville, SC; Lexington, KY; Chicago Central, IL; Cook County South, IL; Maricopa Central, AZ; and Toledo, OH. Chico, CA escapes.

The 67 ACO at highest risk represent 23.7% of all ACO. Average daily gain is 1.34%, so few are likely to reach 98% by the end of the month, but all but 12 are on pace to reach 98% by October 5 (98% is equivalent to more than 99% total completion)

Average rate is for seven days (rolling average).

73.7 (1.80%, 10/12) Shreveport, LA (western and northern Louisiana)
75.6 (1.70%, 10/12) Window Rock, AZ (Navajo reservation)
81.4 (1.93%, 10/7) Columbus, GA (southern Georgia)
83.5 (1.36%, 10/9) Mobile, AL (southern Alabama)
83.9 (1.80%, 10/6) Birmingham, AL (central Alabama)
84.8 (1.57%, 10/7) Jackson, MS (western and northern Mississippi)
85.2 (1.54%, 10/7) Pensacola, FL (Redneck Riviera)
85.9 (1.61%, 10/6) Gwinnett County, GA (Gwinnett and points east)
86.8 (1.30%, 10/7) Huntsville, AL (northern Alabama)
87.0 (1.51%, 10/6) Charleston, SC (Low Country, South Carolina)
87.3 (1.56%, 10/5) Durham, NC (north central, includes Greensboro, but not Raleigh or Winston-Salem)
87.5 (1.67%, 10/5) Colorado Springs, CO (southern Colorado)
87.7 (1.34%, 10/6) Columbia, SC (Midlands)
88.3 (1.21%, 10/6) Lakeland, FL (south central peninsula)
88.3 (1.63%, 10/4) Douglasville, GA (western Atlanta suburbs and points west.
88.9 (1.31%, 10/5) Tampa, FL (Hillsborough County)
89.3 (1.27%, 10/5) Seminole County, FL (Seminole, Volusia, Brevard counties)
89.3 (1.70%, 10/4) Philadelphia-Penn, PA (north Philadelphia)
89.5 (1.59%, 10/4) Billings, MT (Montana)
90.4 (1.33%, 10/4) Winston-Salem, NC (northwestern North Carolina)
90.4 (1.51%, 10/4) Tulsa, OK (northeast Oklahoma)
90.5 (1.73%, 10/3) Maricopa West, AZ (Glendale and westward)
90.6 (1.07%, 10/5) Memphis, TN (far western Tennessee)
90.6 (1.73%, 10/3) Greenville, NC (eastern North Carolina)
90.8 (1.10%, 10/5) Louisville, KY (western Kentucky)
90.8 (1.47%, 10/3) Brooklyn 1, NY (eastern Brooklyn)
90.8 (1.50%, 10/3) Philadelphia-Franklin, PA (south and west Philadelphia)
90.9 (1.40%, 10/4) Jacksonville, FL (Duval, Nassau, Baker counties)
90.9 (1.51%, 10/3) Baton Rouge, LA (Baton Rouge and areas to east and west)
91.0 (1.63%, 10/3) Atlanta, GA (Fulton County)
91.0 (1.64%, 10/3) Fort Bend County, TX (southern Houston suburbs, and down to Victoria)
91.5 (1.44%, 10/3) Baltimore, MD (Baltimore City)
91.8 (1.29%, 10/3) Tucson, AZ (southern Arizona)
91.8 (1.36%, 10/3) Fayetteville, NC (southeastern North Carolina)
91.9 (1.14%, 10/4) Gainesville, GA (nothern Georgia)
92.0 (1.14%, 10/4) Ocala, FL (north central Peninsula)
92.2 (1.19%, 10/3) Detroit, MI (Wayne County)
92.3 (1.39%, 10/3) Akron, OH (northeastern Ohio)
92.3 (1.44%, 10/2) West Palm Beach, FL (Palm Beach and Martin counties)
92.5 (1.40%, 10/2) Fredericksburg, VA (northern Virginia, excluding Loudoun, Fairfax, Arlington counties, Alexandria)
92.9 (0.93%, 10/4) Brooklyn 4, NY (southwestern Brooklyn)
92.9 (1.19%, 10/3) Santa Rosa, CA (North Coast California)
92.9 (1.53%, 10/2) Albuquerque, NM (northern New Mexico, except Navajo Reservation)
93.0 (1.04%, 10/3) Sioux Falls, SD (South Dakota)
93.0 (1.11%, 10/3) Gulfport, MS (southern Mississippi)
93.1 (1.00%, 10/3) Shelbyville, TN (central and western Tennessee, except Nashville and Memphis)
93.1 (1.16%, 10/3) Flagstaff, AZ (northern Arizona)
93.1 (1.21%, 10/3) Milwaukee, WI (Milwaukee County)
93.2 (1.27%, 10/2) Allentown, PA (northeastern Pennsylvania)
93.2 (1.63%, 10/1) Cleveland, OH (Cuyahoga, excluding outer suburbs)
93.3 (0.84%, 10/4) Eugene, OR (southern and eastern Oregon)
93.3 (1.01%, 10/3) Boston, MA (Suffolk County)
93.3 (1.04%, 10/3) Washington, DC (District of Columbia)
93.4 (0.73%, 10/5) Bronx 2, NY (southern, western Bronx)
93.4 (1.29%, 10/2) Lansing, MI (southern Michigan)
93.4 (1.37%, 10/2) Fort Myers, FL (Manatee, Sarasota, Charlotte, Lee)
93.5 (0.94%, 10/3) Stockton, CA (San Joaquin, southern Sacramento, Central Sierras)
93.6 (1.71%, 10/1) Macon, GA (central Georgia, south-central from Atlanta perspective)
93.7 (0.93%, 10/3) Southgate, CA (South Central, Huntington Park, Compton)
93.8 (1.16%, 10/2) Montgomery County, TX (southeastern Texas)
93.8 (1.19%, 10/2) Brooklyn 2, NY (southwest Brooklyn)
93.8 (1.30%, 10/2) Greenville, SC (Upcountry South Carolina)
93.8 (1.49%, 10/1) Lexington, KY (eastern Kentucky)
93.9 (0.80%, 10/4) Chicago Central, IL (Central-northish Chicago)
93.9 (0.83%, 10/3) Cook County South, IL (Southern Cook County, including far southern Chicago)
93.9 (1.51%, 10/1) Maricopa Central, AZ (Glendale and points west)
94.0 (0.94%, 10/3) Toledo, OH (northwestern Ohio)

This is a secondary group that need to average 1.5% or more daily to reach 98% of the NRFU workload by September 30. Report day September 29, data day September 28. Between 94.0% and 95.0%.

Reading, PA; Tyler, TX; Lauderdale Lakes, FL; and Cleveland County, OK are added, while Chico, CA moves out of the extreme category. 10 ACO's fall into the extreme group, while Newark, NJ escapes the moderate risk group. The average daily increase is 1.17%, a significant drop from previous days.

The 18 ACO at moderate risk represent 7.3% of all ACO.

94.1 (1.20%, 10/2) Asheville, NC (western North Carolina)
94.1 (1.20%, 10/2) Richmond, VA (Southeastern Virginia excluding Hampton Roads)
94.1 (1.44%, 10/1) Chico, CA (Inland Northern California)
94.2 (1.00%, 10/2) Bronx 1, NY (northern, eastern Bronx)
94.3 (1.13%, 10/2) Miami South, FL (southern Miami-Dade and Monroe)
94.4 (1.26%, 10/1) Miami North, FL (northern Miami-Dade)
94.5 (1.33%, 10/1) Melville, NY (Suffolk County)
94.5 (1.56%, 10/1) Des Moines, IA (Iowa)
94.6 (0.94%, 10/2) Bakersfield, CA (Kern, Tulare, King, Fresno, excluding city of Fresno, counties)
94.7 (1.00%, 10/2) Riverside, CA (western Riverside County)
94.7 (1.09%, 10/2) Houston South, TX (south of Brays Bayou, West Loop (I-610), Katy Freeway (I-10), Gulf Freeway (I-45))
94.7 (1.30%, 10/1) Charlotte, NC (Mecklenburg and Union counties)
94.8 (0.80%, 10/3) Reading, PA (Delaware, Chester, Berks, Schuylkill)
94.9 (1.06%, 10/1) Tyler, TX (northeast Texas)
94.9 (1.10%, 10/1) Palm Springs, CA (Riverside County, excluding western end and Imperial)
94.9 (1.29%, 10/1) Springfield, IL (southern Illinois)
94.9 (1.33%, 10/1) Lauderdale Lakes, FL (inland Broward, plus Collier and Hendry)
95.0 (1.04%, 10/1) Cleveland County, OK (southern Oklahoma)

[jimrtex]

98.9% total enumeration rate as of yesterday’s report. The self-reporting rate is now 66.6% - above 2010’s final rate.

This is indicative of a 96.7% NRFU completion rate.

[Tender Branson]

End-of-September update:

12 states + PR are now at 99.9% completion !

22 states are between 99% and 99.9%

16 states + DC are below 99%

Only AL is left with less than 95% (but at 94.9%).

There are at least 5 days left to count, because the CB said Oct. 5th is when they'll end counting (this violates a Federal Court order that said counting must continue until Oct. 31st).

AL is progressing at 0.7% per day, so that would mean AL ends at 98.4%, leaving ca. 80.000 people uncounted in the state, unless the Court forces the CB to extend counting to Oct. 31.

[jimrtex]

End-of-September update:

12 states + PR are now at 99.9% completion !

22 states are between 99% and 99.9%

16 states + DC are below 99%

Only AL is left with less than 95% (but at 94.9%).

There are at least 5 days left to count, because the CB said Oct. 5th is when they'll end counting (this violates a Federal Court order that said counting must continue until Oct. 31st).

AL is progressing at 0.7% per day, so that would mean AL ends at 98.4%, leaving ca. 80.000 people uncounted in the state, unless the Court forces the CB to extend counting to Oct. 31.

112 of 245 ACO (45.7%) are above 98%, which will but total completion above 99%.

14 states have all ACO above 98% NRFU: IN(4), CT(3), UT(2), AR(2), AK(1), HI(1), ID(1),  ME(1), NE(1), NH(1), ND(1), RI(1), VT(1), and WV(1)

7 states have a majority of ACO above 98%

80% WA 4/5
75% WI 3/4
69% TX 18/26
67% MN 2/3
67% OR 2/3
62% OH 5/8
60% CA 18/30

5 states have half.

50% VA 3/6
50% LA 2/4
50% TN 2/4
50% KS 1/2
50% NV 1/2

14 states have some, but less than half.

44% PA 4/9
40% MI 2/5
38% NY 8/21
38% NJ 3/8
33% MA 2/6
33% MO 1/3
33% OK 1/3
25% CO 1/4
25% MD 1/4
20% IL 2/10
17% AZ 1/6
14% NC 1/7
13% FL 2/15
12% GA 1/8

10 states + DC have none.

AL(3), SC(3), KY(2), MS(2), NM(2), DE(1), DC(1), IA(1), MT (1), SD(1), WY(1)

[jimrtex]

There are at least 5 days left to count, because the CB said Oct. 5th is when they'll end counting (this violates a Federal Court order that said counting must continue until Oct. 31st).

This is subject to interpretation.

The court said that the Census Bureau must adhere to a previous adjusted plan; rather than an updated version.

The earlier plan required changes in statute or appropriations that Congress has not approved.

[cinyc]

There are at least 5 days left to count, because the CB said Oct. 5th is when they'll end counting (this violates a Federal Court order that said counting must continue until Oct. 31st).

This is subject to interpretation.

The court said that the Census Bureau must adhere to a previous adjusted plan; rather than an updated version.

The earlier plan required changes in statute or appropriations that Congress has not approved.

https://twitter.com/tomTMwolf/status/1312010008108859393?s=19

The ruling this time actually says the dates must be October 31 for the count and April 30 for the data, I think. Unless Census makes another administrative ruling that I don't think this judge will allow ever, at least as long as Trump is in office.

[jimrtex]

https://twitter.com/tomTMwolf/status/1312010008108859393?s=19
The ruling this time actually says the dates must be October 31 for the count and April 30 for the data, I think. Unless Census makes another administrative ruling that I don't think this judge will allow ever, at least as long as Trump is in office.

There was the December 2018 final operational plan, which had a July 2020 collection deadline (July 31?).

The COVID-19 plan that set an October 31 collection deadline, an April 30, 2021 apportionment count, and a a July, 2021 redistricting count deadline.

Then there was the REPLAN that set the September 30 collection deadline, and a 31 December, 2020 apportionment count.

The judge's ruling apparently rests on a belief that the COVID-19 plan would have been consistent with Constitution's requirement of an enumeration, and therefore the REPLAN violates the Administrative Procedures Act, and the COVID-19 plan was stayed by the court.

The Court order requires the Census Bureau to text all Census Bureau employees that data collection will continue through October 31, and to give a copy of the text to the judge after doing so.

The judge may be pushing herself in getting overturned.

[jimrtex]

ACO's that need to average 1.5% or more daily to reach 98% of the NRFU workload by September 30. Report day September 30, data day September 29. 96.5% or less.

I've combined the two lists there is only one day left, and the gap between the two is only 0.5% (96.0% to 96.5%). Beginning with tomorrow's report after the September 30 deadsevere-cough-and-trouble-breathing-line, I'll list ACO's by projected time to reach 98%.

New ACO's to the list (these were over 95.0% on September 28, but did not exceed 96.5% on September 29):

Dekalb, GA; Virginia Beach, VA; Wilmington, DE; Towson, MD; Lawrence, MA; Traverse City, MI; Chicago South, IL; Las Cruces, NM; Orange County, FL; Bakersfield, CA; Aurora, CO; and Fort Lauderdale, FL.

The 97 ACO at highest risk represent 39.6% of all ACO. Average daily gain is 1.21%, so few are likely to reach 98% by tomorrow (September 30). All but 17 are projected to reach 98% by October 5.

Average rate is for seven days (rolling average).

75.3 (1.73%, 10/13) Shreveport, LA (western and northern Louisiana)
77.6 (1.76%, 10/11) Window Rock, AZ (Navajo reservation)
83.0 (1.84%, 10/8) Columbus, GA (southern Georgia)
83.5 (1.14%, 10/12) Mobile, AL (southern Alabama)
85.6 (1.76%, 10/7) Birmingham, AL (central Alabama)
86.1 (1.44%, 10/8) Jackson, MS (western and northern Mississippi)
86.5 (1.47%, 10/7) Pensacola, FL (Redneck Riviera)
87.2 (1.17%, 10/9) Douglasville, GA (western Atlanta suburbs and points west.
87.3 (1.54%, 10/6) Gwinnett County, GA (Gwinnett and points east)
88.1 (1.29%, 10/7) Huntsville, AL (northern Alabama)
88.3 (1.43%, 10/6) Charleston, SC (Low Country, South Carolina)
88.6 (1.50%, 10/6) Durham, NC (north central, includes Greensboro, but not Raleigh or Winston-Salem)
88.7 (1.27%, 10/7) Columbia, SC (Midlands)
89.1 (1.13%, 10/7) Lakeland, FL (south central peninsula)
89.1 (1.69%, 10/5) Colorado Springs, CO (southern Colorado)
89.9 (1.23%, 10/6) Tampa, FL (Hillsborough County)
90.3 (1.54%, 10/4) Philadelphia-Penn, PA (north Philadelphia)
90.4 (1.21%, 10/6) Seminole County, FL (Seminole, Volusia, Brevard counties)
90.8 (1.54%, 10/4) Billings, MT (Montana)
91.3 (1.00%, 10/6) Memphis, TN (far western Tennessee)
91.3 (1.24%, 10/5) Winston-Salem, NC (northwestern North Carolina)
91.8 (1.40%, 10/4) Philadelphia-Franklin, PA (south and west Philadelphia)
91.9 (1.36%, 10/4) Brooklyn 1, NY (eastern Brooklyn)
92.0 (1.09%, 10/5) Louisville, KY (western Kentucky)
92.0 (1.33%, 10/4) Jacksonville, FL (Duval, Nassau, Baker counties)
92.0 (1.50%, 10/4) Atlanta, GA (Fulton County)
92.0 (1.59%, 10/3) Tulsa, OK (northeast Oklahoma)
92.0 (1.69%, 10/3) Maricopa West, AZ (Glendale and westward)
92.2 (1.41%, 10/4) Baton Rouge, LA (Baton Rouge and areas to east and west)
92.3 (1.31%, 10/4) Baltimore, MD (Baltimore City)
92.3 (1.69%, 10/3) Greenville, NC (eastern North Carolina)
92.6 (1.23%, 10/4) Fayetteville, NC (southeastern North Carolina)
92.7 (1.07%, 10/4) Gainesville, GA (nothern Georgia)
92.8 (1.01%, 10/5) Ocala, FL (north central Peninsula)
92.8 (1.21%, 10/4) Tucson, AZ (southern Arizona)
92.9 (1.77%, 10/2) Fort Bend County, TX (southern Houston suburbs, and down to Victoria)
93.2 (1.11%, 10/4) Detroit, MI (Wayne County)
93.4 (1.30%, 10/3) Akron, OH (northeastern Ohio)
93.4 (1.34%, 10/3) Fredericksburg, VA (northern Virginia, excluding Loudoun, Fairfax, Arlington counties, Alexandria)
93.5 (1.39%, 10/3) West Palm Beach, FL (Palm Beach and Martin counties)
93.6 (0.97%, 10/4) Sioux Falls, SD (South Dakota)
93.9 (0.70%, 10/5) Bronx 2, NY (southern, western Bronx)
93.9 (0.91%, 10/4) Shelbyville, TN (central and western Tennessee, except Nashville and Memphis)
93.9 (0.93%, 10/4) Brooklyn 4, NY (southwestern Brooklyn)
93.9 (1.07%, 10/3) Gulfport, MS (southern Mississippi)
94.0 (1.00%, 10/4) Boston, MA (Suffolk County)
94.0 (1.11%, 10/3) Flagstaff, AZ (northern Arizona)
94.0 (1.17%, 10/3) Allentown, PA (northeastern Pennsylvania)
94.1 (1.03%, 10/3) Washington, DC (District of Columbia)
94.1 (1.51%, 10/2) Cleveland, OH (Cuyahoga, excluding outer suburbs)
94.2 (1.23%, 10/3) Fort Myers, FL (Manatee, Sarasota, Charlotte, Lee)
94.3 (1.20%, 10/3) Lansing, MI (southern Michigan)
94.3 (1.24%, 10/2) Milwaukee, WI (Milwaukee County)
94.3 (1.51%, 10/2) Albuquerque, NM (northern New Mexico, except Navajo Reservation)
94.4 (1.27%, 10/2) Dekalb, GA (Dekalb and Clayton counties)
94.5 (1.54%, 10/2) Macon, GA (central Georgia, south-central from Atlanta perspective)
94.6 (0.81%, 10/4) Chicago Central, IL (Central-northish Chicago)
94.6 (0.96%, 10/3) Stockton, CA (San Joaquin, southern Sacramento, Central Sierras)
94.6 (1.13%, 10/3) Brooklyn 2, NY (southwest Brooklyn)
94.6 (1.20%, 10/2) Greenville, SC (Upcountry South Carolina)
94.7 (1.03%, 10/3) Asheville, NC (western North Carolina)
94.7 (1.31%, 10/2) Santa Rosa, CA (North Coast California)
94.8 (0.83%, 10/3) Cook County South, IL (Southern Cook County, including far southern Chicago)
94.8 (0.89%, 10/3) Toledo, OH (northwestern Ohio)
94.8 (1.37%, 10/2) Lexington, KY (eastern Kentucky)
94.9 (1.11%, 10/2) Richmond, VA (Southeastern Virginia excluding Hampton Roads)
95.1 (1.00%, 10/2) Eugene, OR (southern and eastern Oregon)
95.1 (1.01%, 10/2) Southgate, CA (South Central, Huntington Park, Compton)
95.1 (1.03%, 10/2) Bronx 1, NY (northern, eastern Bronx)
95.1 (1.07%, 10/2) Miami South, FL (southern Miami-Dade and Monroe)
95.1 (1.41%, 10/2) Maricopa Central, AZ (Glendale and points west)
95.3 (1.16%, 10/2) Miami North, FL (northern Miami-Dade)
95.4 (0.73%, 10/3) Reading, PA (Delaware, Chester, Berks, Schuylkill)
95.4 (1.14%, 10/2) Lauderdale Lakes, FL (inland Broward, plus Collier and Hendry)
95.5 (0.94%, 10/2) Riverside, CA (western Riverside County)
95.5 (1.11%, 10/2) Houston South, TX (south of Brays Bayou, West Loop (I-610), Katy Freeway (I-10), Gulf Freeway (I-45))
95.5 (1.23%, 10/2) Montgomery County, TX (southeastern Texas)
95.5 (1.24%, 10/2) Melville, NY (Suffolk County)
95.5 (1.43%, 10/1) Des Moines, IA (Iowa)
95.6 (1.03%, 10/2) Virginia Beach, VA (Hampton Roads)
95.6 (1.24%, 10/1) Charlotte, NC (Mecklenburg and Union counties)
95.7 (0.97%, 10/2) Cleveland County, OK (southern Oklahoma)
95.7 (1.01%, 10/2) Tyler, TX (northeast Texas)
95.8 (1.00%, 10/2) Bakersfield, CA (Kern, Tulare, King, Fresno, excluding city of Fresno, counties)
95.8 (1.17%, 10/1) Wilmington, DE (Delaware)
95.8 (1.51%, 10/1) Chico, CA (Inland Northern California)
95.9 (1.10%, 10/1) Palm Springs, CA (Riverside County, excluding western end and Imperial)
95.9 (1.21%, 10/1) Springfield, IL (southern Illinois)
96.0 (0.61%, 10/3) Towson, MD (Baltimore suburbs and Eastern Shore)
96.0 (0.93%, 10/2) Lawrence, MA (Essex County)
96.0 (0.94%, 10/2) Traverse City, MI (Upper Peninsula and northern lower Peninsula)
96.1 (0.74%, 10/2) Chicago South, IL (southside Chicago)
96.1 (0.89%, 10/2) Las Cruces, NM (southern New Mexico)
96.1 (1.21%, 10/1) Orange County, FL (Orange County)
96.2 (0.71%, 10/2) San Bernardino, CA (San Bernardino County, excluding southwestern corner)
96.2 (0.89%, 10/2) Aurora, CO (Adams, Arapahoe, Douglas, Elbert couties)
96.5 (1.27%, 10/1) Fort Lauderdale, FL (Coastal Broward)

[Tender Branson]

99.1% of the US counted (+0.2)

[cinyc]

99.1% of the US counted (+0.2)

Yup. Still 66.6% Self-Response.

The court order is unnecessary in a good part of the country. 12 states plus PR are at 99.9% total enumeration. It will never be 100%.

[cinyc]

There was the December 2018 final operational plan, which had a July 2020 collection deadline (July 31?).

The COVID-19 plan that set an October 31 collection deadline, an April 30, 2021 apportionment count, and a a July, 2021 redistricting count deadline.

Then there was the REPLAN that set the September 30 collection deadline, and a 31 December, 2020 apportionment count.

The judge's ruling apparently rests on a belief that the COVID-19 plan would have been consistent with Constitution's requirement of an enumeration, and therefore the REPLAN violates the Administrative Procedures Act, and the COVID-19 plan was stayed by the court.

The Court order requires the Census Bureau to text all Census Bureau employees that data collection will continue through October 31, and to give a copy of the text to the judge after doing so.

The judge may be pushing herself in getting overturned.

Wasn't the COVID-19 plan always contingent on Congress passing an extension for the apportionment count? So the judge has to be saying that she can re-write that deadline without Congress because it's required by the Constitution?

[Tender Branson]

The Census Bureau has just folded and accepted the Court order to continue counting/quality checks until October 31:

[cinyc]

The Census Bureau has just folded and accepted the Court order to continue counting/quality checks until October 31:

No - they sent out what the court ordered they must send out. The appeal appears to be still on.

[jimrtex]

There was the December 2018 final operational plan, which had a July 2020 collection deadline (July 31?).

The COVID-19 plan that set an October 31 collection deadline, an April 30, 2021 apportionment count, and a a July, 2021 redistricting count deadline.

Then there was the REPLAN that set the September 30 collection deadline, and a 31 December, 2020 apportionment count.

The judge's ruling apparently rests on a belief that the COVID-19 plan would have been consistent with Constitution's requirement of an enumeration, and therefore the REPLAN violates the Administrative Procedures Act, and the COVID-19 plan was stayed by the court.

The Court order requires the Census Bureau to text all Census Bureau employees that data collection will continue through October 31, and to give a copy of the text to the judge after doing so.

The judge may be pushing herself in getting overturned.

Wasn't the COVID-19 plan always contingent on Congress passing an extension for the apportionment count? So the judge has to be saying that she can re-write that deadline without Congress because it's required by the Constitution?

Premised, rather than contingent.

That is, they didn't say: If Congress acts, then this is the best way to get an accurate Census. But rather, "This is the best way to get an accurate Census, assuming that Congress acts."

Your understanding on the deadline is consistent with the dissent in the 9th Circuit.

https://cdn.ca9.uscourts.gov/datastore/opinions/2020/09/30/20-16868.pdf

The 9th Circuit will have its hearing on Monday. The next hearing by the district court is on Tuesday. I assume, the appeal to the SCOTUS will come soon after the Monday hearing.

[jimrtex]

An interesting little tidbit was a mention of detainees in ICE facilities.

[jimrtex]

On October 1, 24 more ACO reach 98.0% NRFU, bring the total to 136 (55.5%).

It appears that NRFU rate can be brought to 99.0% or just a few 0.1% above, but the approach is not asymptotic. There can be a couple of daily increases around 0.5% going from around 98.0% to 99.0% and then it more or less freezes.

17 states have all ACO above 98% NRFU: NJ(8), WA(5), IN(4), CT(3), UT(2), AR(2), KS(2), AK(1), HI(1), ID(1),  ME(1), NE(1), NH(1), ND(1), RI(1), VT(1), and WV(1)

8 states have a majority of ACO above 98%

67% MN 2/3 (Duluth 97.9% is lowest)
67% MO 2/3 (Springfield 97.4%)
67% OR 2/3 (Eugene 97.4%)
68% TX 23/26 (Fort Bend 96.2%)
75% WI 3/4 (Milwaukee 96.1%)
62% OH 5/8 (Akron 95.5%)
67% MA 4/6 (Boston 95.4%)
67% CA 20/30 (Stockton 93.8%)

6 states have half.

50% IL 5/10 (Oswego 97.8%, to get to majority)
50% NV 1/2 (North Las Vegas 97.8%)
50% MD 2/4 (Towson 97.0%)
50% VA 3/6 (Virginia Beach 96.8%)
50% TN 2/4 (Shelbyville 95.5%)
50% LA 2/4 (Baton Rouge 94.5%)

9 states have some, but less than half.

48% NY 10/21 (Queens 3 97.9%, to reach 50% or more)
44% PA 4/9 (Norristown 97.9%)
25% CO 1/4 (Denver 97.7%)
40% MI 2/5 (Traverse City 97.3%)
33% OK 1/3 (Cleveland County 97.2%)
20% FL 3/15 (Fort Myers 96.4%)
17% AZ 1/6 (Flagstaff 96.0%)
14% NC 1/7 (Asheville 96.0%)
12% GA 1/8 (Atlanta or Gainesville 94.4%)

10 states + DC have none.

WY(1) (Casper 97.7% is best)
NM(2) (Las Cruces 97.5%)
IA(1) (Des Moines 97.3%)
DE(1) (Wilmington 97.0%)
SC(3) (Greenville 96.7%)
KY(2) (Lexington 96.3%)
DC(1) (Washington 95.7%)
MS(2) (Gulfport 95.5%)
SD(1) (Sioux Falls 95.0%)
MT (1) (Billings 93.0%)
AL(3) (Huntsville 90.7% is best)