The Official 2020 Census Thread

[Tender Branson]

96.6% counted (+0.4)

With 7 days to go, there are now 8 states & PR who are more than 99% counted and all except 10 states - mostly in the South - over 95%.

[jimrtex]

ACO's that need to average 2.0% or more daily to reach 98% of the NRFU workload by September 30. Report day September 22, data day September 21. 80.0% or less. I convinced myself to set the target at 98% (roughly 99% overall including self-responses). This meant that the current threshold remained at 80% for one day.

The 24 ACO at highest risk represent 9.8% of all ACO.

ACO's that escaped are Philadelphia-Franklin, PA; Baton Rouge, LA; Seminole County, FL; Brooklyn 1, NY; Jacksonville, FL; Winston-Salem, NC; Baltimore, MD; and Macon, GA.

Average rate is for seven days (rolling average).

61.1 (1.86%, 10/11) Shreveport, LA (western and northern Louisiana)
63.7 (1.69%, 10/12) Window Rock, AZ (Navajo reservation)
67.9 (2.31%, 10/5) Columbus, GA (southern Georgia)
68.5 (0.49%, 11/21) Charleston, SC (Low Country, South Carolina)
71.3 (1.99%, 10/5) Birmingham, AL (central Alabama)
73.8 (2.41%, 10/2) Jackson, MS (western and northern Mississippi)
74.0 (1.20%, 10/12) Mobile, AL (southern Alabama)
74.4 (1.34%, 10/9) Pensacola, FL (Redneck Riviera)
74.6 (1.87%, 10/4) Gwinnett County, GA (Gwinnett and points east)
75.8 (1.63%, 10/5) Colorado Springs, CO (southern Colorado)
76.4 (1.51%, 10/6) Durham, NC (north central, includes Greensboro, but not Raleigh or Winston-Salem)
76.4 (1.61%, 10/5) Charleston, SC (Low Country, South Carolina)
76.9 (1.46%, 10/6) Douglasville, GA (western Atlanta suburbs and points west.
77.4 (1.97%, 10/2) Philadelphia-Penn, PA (north Philadelphia)
77.7 (1.53%, 10/5) Huntsville, AL (northern Alabama)
78.3 (1.30%, 10/7) Columbia, SC (Midlands)
78.4 (1.54%, 10/4) Billings, MT (Montana)
78.4 (2.04%, 10/1) Maricopa West, AZ (Glendale and westward)
78.5 (1.64%, 10/3) Greenville, NC (eastern North Carolina)
79.5 (1.70%, 10/2) Fort Bend County, TX (southern Houston suburbs, and down to Victoria)
79.6 (1.83%, 10/2) Atlanta, GA (Fulton County)
79.7 (1.69%, 10/2) Tampa, FL (Hillsborough County)
79.8 (1.46%, 10/4) Tulsa, OK (northeast Oklahoma)
79.8 (1.69%, 10/2) Lakeland, FL (south central peninsula)

This is a secondary group that need to average 1.5% or more daily to reach 98% of the NRFU workload by September 30. Report day September 22, data day September 21. Between 80.0% and 84.5%. Those ACO that were removed from the high risk category have been moved to this level.

These ACO are in relatively good shape, since most have been averaging 1.5% or more, though this might slow as they get closer to completion.

The 29 ACO at moderate risk represent 11.8% of all ACO.

80.3 (1.64%, 10/2) Philadelphia-Franklin, PA (south and west Philadelphia)
80.3 (1.94%, 10/1) Baton Rouge, LA (Baton Rouge and areas to east and west)
80.4 (1.52%, 10/3) Seminole County, FL (Seminole, Volusia, Brevard counties)
80.5 (2.00%, 9/30) Brooklyn 1, NY (eastern Brooklyn)
81.1 (1.66%, 10/2) Jacksonville, FL (Duval, Nassau, Baker counties)
81.1 (1.66%, 10/2) Winston-Salem, NC (northwestern North Carolina)
81.4 (1.73%, 10/1) Baltimore, MD (Baltimore City)
81.6 (2.73%, 9/28) Macon, GA (central Georgia, south-central from Atlanta perspective)
81.8 (1.63%, 10/1) Cleveland, OH (Cuyahoga, excluding outer suburbs)
82.2 (1.48%, 10/2) Albuquerque, NM (northern New Mexico, except Navajo Reservation)
82.2 (1.79%, 9/30) West Palm Beach, FL (Palm Beach and Martin counties)
82.3 (1.43%, 10/2) Fayetteville, NC (southeastern North Carolina)
82.6 (1.96%, 9/29) Akron, OH (northeastern Ohio)
82.7 (1.34%, 10/3) Fredericksburg, VA (northern Virginia, excluding Loudoun, Fairfax, Arlington counties, Alexandria)
82.8 (2.03%, 9/29) Tucson, AZ (southern Arizona)
83.1 (1.28%, 10/3) Louisville, KY (western Kentucky)
83.1 (1.32%, 10/3) Memphis, TN (far western Tennessee)
83.3 (2.16%, 9/28) Maricopa Central, AZ (Glendale and points west)
83.4 (1.67%, 9/30) Lexington, KY (eastern Kentucky)
83.5 (1.97%, 9/29) DeKalb County, GA (DeKalb, Clayton counties)
83.6 (1.96%, 9/29) Des Moines, IA (Iowa)
83.8 (1.86%, 9/29) Fort Myers, FL (Manatee, Sarasota, Charlotte, Lee)
83.9 (1.43%, 10/1) Gainesville, GA (nothern Georgia)
83.9 (1.84%, 9/29) Detroit, MI (Wayne County)
84.0 (1.21%, 10/3) Chico, CA (Inland Northern California)
84.0 (1.65%, 9/30) Ocala, FL (north central Peninsula)
84.0 (2.00%, 9/29) Laredo, TX (south Texas, except Lower Rio Grande Valley)
84.1 (2.63%, 9/27) Egg Harbor, NJ (far southern New Jersey)
84.4 (1.57%, 9/30) Lansing, MI (southern Michigan)

[jimrtex]

ACO's that need to average 2.0% or more daily to reach 98% of the NRFU workload by September 30. Report day September 23, data day September 22. 82.0% or less.

Seminole County, FL slips down into this category. The 24 ACO at highest risk represent 9.7% of all ACO. Average daily gain is 1.68%, so few are likely to reach 98%. Average rate is for seven days (rolling average).

63.2 (1.93%, 10/11) Shreveport, LA (western and northern Louisiana)
65.3 (1.66%, 10/12) Window Rock, AZ (Navajo reservation)
70.1 (2.24%, 10/5) Columbus, GA (southern Georgia)
73.3 (1.99%, 10/5) Birmingham, AL (central Alabama)
75.5 (1.26%, 10/10) Mobile, AL (southern Alabama)
76.0 (2.34%, 10/2) Jackson, MS (western and northern Mississippi)
76.2 (1.46%, 10/7) Pensacola, FL (Redneck Riviera)
76.5 (1.86%, 10/4) Gwinnett County, GA (Gwinnett and points east)
77.3 (1.59%, 10/6) Colorado Springs, CO (southern Colorado)
78.1 (1.49%, 10/6) Durham, NC (north central, includes Greensboro, but not Raleigh or Winston-Salem)
78.3 (1.61%, 10/5) Charleston, SC (Low Country, South Carolina)
79.0 (1.50%, 10/5) Douglasville, GA (western Atlanta suburbs and points west.
79.1 (1.49%, 10/5) Huntsville, AL (northern Alabama)
79.5 (1.97%, 10/2) Philadelphia-Penn, PA (north Philadelphia)
79.8 (1.29%, 10/7) Columbia, SC (Midlands)
80.0 (1.54%, 10/4) Billings, MT (Montana)
80.2 (1.99%, 10/1) Maricopa West, AZ (Glendale and westward)
80.5 (1.53%, 10/4) Fort Bend County, TX (southern Houston suburbs, and down to Victoria)
80.5 (1.64%, 10/3) Greenville, NC (eastern North Carolina)
80.9 (1.39%, 10/5) Tulsa, OK (northeast Oklahoma)
81.2 (1.59%, 10/3) Lakeland, FL (south central peninsula)
81.3 (1.63%, 10/3) Tampa, FL (Hillsborough County)
81.5 (1.77%, 10/2) Atlanta, GA (Fulton County)
81.9 (1.51%, 10/3) Seminole County, FL (Seminole, Volusia, Brevard counties)

This is a secondary group that need to average 1.5% or more daily to reach 98% of the NRFU workload by September 30. Report day September 23, data day September 22. Between 82.0% and 86.0%. Those ACO that were removed from the high risk category have been moved to this level.

Santa Rosa, CA; Milwaukee, WI; and Allentown, PA are new to the group, while Seminole County, FL dropped into the more severe group, and Egg Harbor, NJ has escaped.

These ACO are in relatively good shape, since most have been averaging 1.5% or more, though this might slow as they get closer to completion.

The 30 ACO at moderate risk represent 12.2% of all ACO.

82.0 (2.33%, 9/29) Philadelphia-Franklin, PA (south and west Philadelphia)
82.3 (1.94%, 10/1) Baton Rouge, LA (Baton Rouge and areas to east and west)
82.4 (1.93%, 10/1) Brooklyn 1, NY (eastern Brooklyn)
82.6 (1.56%, 10/2) Winston-Salem, NC (northwestern North Carolina)
82.7 (1.61%, 10/2) Jacksonville, FL (Duval, Nassau, Baker counties)
83.1 (1.70%, 10/1) Baltimore, MD (Baltimore City)
83.5 (1.64%, 10/1) Cleveland, OH (Cuyahoga, excluding outer suburbs)
83.7 (1.49%, 10/2) Albuquerque, NM (northern New Mexico, except Navajo Reservation)
83.7 (2.56%, 9/28) Macon, GA (central Georgia, south-central from Atlanta perspective)
83.8 (1.70%, 10/1) West Palm Beach, FL (Palm Beach and Martin counties)
84.0 (1.30%, 10/3) Fredericksburg, VA (northern Virginia, excluding Loudoun, Fairfax, Arlington counties, Alexandria)
84.0 (1.47%, 10/2) Fayetteville, NC (southeastern North Carolina)
84.3 (1.25%, 10/3) Memphis, TN (far western Tennessee)
84.3 (1.86%, 9/30) Tucson, AZ (southern Arizona)
84.3 (1.87%, 9/30) Akron, OH (northeastern Ohio)
84.4 (1.22%, 10/4) Louisville, KY (western Kentucky)
85.2 (1.14%, 10/4) Chico, CA (Inland Northern California)
85.2 (1.40%, 10/2) Gainesville, GA (nothern Georgia)
85.2 (1.69%, 9/30) Lexington, KY (eastern Kentucky)
85.2 (2.03%, 9/29) Maricopa Central, AZ (Glendale and points west)
85.4 (1.80%, 9/30) Detroit, MI (Wayne County)
85.5 (0.84%, 10/7) Santa Rosa, CA (North Coast California)
85.5 (1.91%, 9/29) DeKalb County, GA (DeKalb, Clayton counties)
85.5 (1.93%, 9/29) Des Moines, IA (Iowa)
85.6 (0.98%, 10/5) Milwaukee, WI (Milwaukee County)
85.6 (1.85%, 9/29) Fort Myers, FL (Manatee, Sarasota, Charlotte, Lee)
85.7 (1.93%, 9/29) Ocala, FL (north central Peninsula)
85.8 (1.38%, 10/1) Allentown, PA (northeastern Pennsylvania)
85.9 (1.45%, 10/1) Lansing, MI (southern Michigan)
85.9 (1.93%, 9/29) Laredo, TX (south Texas, except Lower Rio Grande Valley)

[cinyc]

A California court is forcing Census to continue the count until October 31. The administration will appeal.

https://www.npr.org/2020/09/24/912071784/court-orders-census-counting-to-continue-through-oct-31-appeal-expected

I honestly don't understand why they can't stop counting in West Virginia or Idaho, where the count is pretty much complete and just continue it elsewhere where it isn't. But nuance is never hyper-partisans' strong point.

[Tender Branson]

A California court is forcing Census to continue the count until October 31. The administration will appeal.

https://www.npr.org/2020/09/24/912071784/court-orders-census-counting-to-continue-through-oct-31-appeal-expected

I honestly don't understand why they can't stop counting in West Virginia or Idaho, where the count is pretty much complete and just continue it elsewhere where it isn't. But nuance is never hyper-partisans' strong point.

Yeah, they could start processing the data from 97% (!) of the country right now, while the data from AL and the rest of the lagging areas would be 100% in by mid-October.

Don’t know what the big deal is.

Unless they have to process everything at once ...

[cinyc]

A California court is forcing Census to continue the count until October 31. The administration will appeal.

https://www.npr.org/2020/09/24/912071784/court-orders-census-counting-to-continue-through-oct-31-appeal-expected

I honestly don't understand why they can't stop counting in West Virginia or Idaho, where the count is pretty much complete and just continue it elsewhere where it isn't. But nuance is never hyper-partisans' strong point.

Yeah, they could start processing the data from 97% (!) of the country right now, while the data from AL and the rest of the lagging areas would be 100% in by mid-October.

Don’t know what the big deal is.

Unless they have to process everything at once ...

Census claims they have to process everything at once.

But forcing Census to continue operations where operations clearly need not be continued is pure garbage and court micromanaging of the Census Bureau.

Not to mention, it should be up to Congress to change the deadline, not the courts.

[Tender Branson]

A California court is forcing Census to continue the count until October 31. The administration will appeal.

https://www.npr.org/2020/09/24/912071784/court-orders-census-counting-to-continue-through-oct-31-appeal-expected

I honestly don't understand why they can't stop counting in West Virginia or Idaho, where the count is pretty much complete and just continue it elsewhere where it isn't. But nuance is never hyper-partisans' strong point.

Yeah, they could start processing the data from 97% (!) of the country right now, while the data from AL and the rest of the lagging areas would be 100% in by mid-October.

Don’t know what the big deal is.

Unless they have to process everything at once ...

Census claims they have to process everything at once.

But forcing Census to continue operations where operations clearly need not be continued is pure garbage and court micromanaging of the Census Bureau.

Not to mention, it should be up to Congress to change the deadline, not the courts.

Congress is highly dysfunctional though and super-slow.

They are not up to the job.

[jimrtex]

A California court is forcing Census to continue the count until October 31. The administration will appeal.

https://www.npr.org/2020/09/24/912071784/court-orders-census-counting-to-continue-through-oct-31-appeal-expected

I honestly don't understand why they can't stop counting in West Virginia or Idaho, where the count is pretty much complete and just continue it elsewhere where it isn't. But nuance is never hyper-partisans' strong point.

I don't read the court order as required heroic efforts in West Virginia or Idaho.

The Census Bureau had planned to continue counting through October 31, which may or may not have required continued efforts everywhere. They then changed to September 30. The court order blocks the switch back to September 30.

It is possible that the Soft NRFU was started in Idaho and West Virginia as proof of concept that they could complete by September 30. But all it really shows is that if they had started NRFU in July, they probably could have completed by September 30.

The court order does purport to prevent the Census Bureau from reporting apportionment numbers by December 31. I think they are being required to defy Congress.

An interesting tidbit is that Harris County is one of the plaintiffs. They issued an affidavit that they used "census data" to target language minorities on a granular basis as part of COVID-19 response.

Do you think they use the 2010 Census, because it has block level data? Or do they use the 2014-2018 ACS because it has block group language data? I bet they use your maps.

[cinyc]

A California court is forcing Census to continue the count until October 31. The administration will appeal.

https://www.npr.org/2020/09/24/912071784/court-orders-census-counting-to-continue-through-oct-31-appeal-expected

I honestly don't understand why they can't stop counting in West Virginia or Idaho, where the count is pretty much complete and just continue it elsewhere where it isn't. But nuance is never hyper-partisans' strong point.

I don't read the court order as required heroic efforts in West Virginia or Idaho.

The Census Bureau had planned to continue counting through October 31, which may or may not have required continued efforts everywhere. They then changed to September 30. The court order blocks the switch back to September 30.

It is possible that the Soft NRFU was started in Idaho and West Virginia as proof of concept that they could complete by September 30. But all it really shows is that if they had started NRFU in July, they probably could have completed by September 30.

The court order does purport to prevent the Census Bureau from reporting apportionment numbers by December 31. I think they are being required to defy Congress.

An interesting tidbit is that Harris County is one of the plaintiffs. They issued an affidavit that they used "census data" to target language minorities on a granular basis as part of COVID-19 response.

Do you think they use the 2010 Census, because it has block level data? Or do they use the 2014-2018 ACS because it has block group language data? I bet they use your maps.

I doubt they use my maps. They probably use the Census Hard-to-Count maps from CUNY. They’re more reliable, more reputable and more regularly updated than mine. I stopped updating after the self-response rate plateaued.

[jimrtex]

There are 14 (of 245) ACO as of collection date September 23 which are at 98% NRFU completion, which means over 99% total completion. Beckley, WV was left off this list.

Honolulu, HI (Hawaii)
West Covina, CA (San Gabriel Valley)
Boise, ID (Idaho)
Harris County NW, TX (outside FM-1960 and TX-6)
Wichita, KS (Kansas except northeastern corner)
Fayetteville, AC (southwestern half of Arkansas - cut on NW to SE diagonal)
New Orleans, LA (extreme southeastern Louisiana)
Mansfield, OH (northeast Ohio, excluding Cleveland, Akron, Youngstown)
South Point, OH (southeastern Ohio)
Beckley, WV (West Virginia)
Fairfax, VA (Loudoun and western part of Fairfax)
Cranberry Township, PA (western Pennsylvania, excluding Allegheny)
State College, PA (central swath of Pennsylvania)
Gardiner, ME (Maine)

Four more ACO were added on September 24, bringing the total to 18 of 245.

Seattle, WA (western King County, Shoreline to Federal Way)
Olympia, OR (western Washington, Olympic Peninsula to Vancouver)
Evansville, IN (southern Indiana)
Burlington, VT (Burlington)

[Tender Branson]

97% completed US-wide (+0.4)

The 1-month data collection extension should be enough even for the areas most behind.

Also, the ruling pushes back the mandatory Dec. 31 reporting deadline for the population figures and apportionment count to an unspecified date.

Which further means, if Trump gets defeated, he may never see those numbers ...

[jimrtex]

A California court is forcing Census to continue the count until October 31. The administration will appeal.

https://www.npr.org/2020/09/24/912071784/court-orders-census-counting-to-continue-through-oct-31-appeal-expected

I honestly don't understand why they can't stop counting in West Virginia or Idaho, where the count is pretty much complete and just continue it elsewhere where it isn't. But nuance is never hyper-partisans' strong point.

I don't read the court order as required heroic efforts in West Virginia or Idaho.

The Census Bureau had planned to continue counting through October 31, which may or may not have required continued efforts everywhere. They then changed to September 30. The court order blocks the switch back to September 30.

It is possible that the Soft NRFU was started in Idaho and West Virginia as proof of concept that they could complete by September 30. But all it really shows is that if they had started NRFU in July, they probably could have completed by September 30.

The court order does purport to prevent the Census Bureau from reporting apportionment numbers by December 31. I think they are being required to defy Congress.

An interesting tidbit is that Harris County is one of the plaintiffs. They issued an affidavit that they used "census data" to target language minorities on a granular basis as part of COVID-19 response.

Do you think they use the 2010 Census, because it has block level data? Or do they use the 2014-2018 ACS because it has block group language data? I bet they use your maps.

I doubt they use my maps. They probably use the Census Hard-to-Count maps from CUNY. They’re more reliable, more reputable and more regularly updated than mine. I stopped updating after the self-response rate plateaued.

I meant for the granular language data.

They were claiming that they were using "census data" to target language minorities.

Anyhow, this should be regarded as an admission that the ACS is sufficiently accurate to draw district boundaries based on adult citizen population.

[cinyc]

Which further means, if Trump gets defeated, he may never see those numbers ...

Which is the hyper-partisan plaintiff’s real motive here.

[cinyc]

A California court is forcing Census to continue the count until October 31. The administration will appeal.

https://www.npr.org/2020/09/24/912071784/court-orders-census-counting-to-continue-through-oct-31-appeal-expected

I honestly don't understand why they can't stop counting in West Virginia or Idaho, where the count is pretty much complete and just continue it elsewhere where it isn't. But nuance is never hyper-partisans' strong point.

I don't read the court order as required heroic efforts in West Virginia or Idaho.

The Census Bureau had planned to continue counting through October 31, which may or may not have required continued efforts everywhere. They then changed to September 30. The court order blocks the switch back to September 30.

It is possible that the Soft NRFU was started in Idaho and West Virginia as proof of concept that they could complete by September 30. But all it really shows is that if they had started NRFU in July, they probably could have completed by September 30.

The court order does purport to prevent the Census Bureau from reporting apportionment numbers by December 31. I think they are being required to defy Congress.

An interesting tidbit is that Harris County is one of the plaintiffs. They issued an affidavit that they used "census data" to target language minorities on a granular basis as part of COVID-19 response.

Do you think they use the 2010 Census, because it has block level data? Or do they use the 2014-2018 ACS because it has block group language data? I bet they use your maps.

I doubt they use my maps. They probably use the Census Hard-to-Count maps from CUNY. They’re more reliable, more reputable and more regularly updated than mine. I stopped updating after the self-response rate plateaued.

I meant for the granular language data.

They were claiming that they were using "census data" to target language minorities.

Anyhow, this should be regarded as an admission that the ACS is sufficiently accurate to draw district boundaries based on adult citizen population.

I don’t have any language maps on my website.

But yes, they probably do use ACS data for that. I don’t think. it’s even asked on Census.

[Tender Branson]

Which further means, if Trump gets defeated, he may never see those numbers ...

Which is the hyper-partisan plaintiff’s real motive here.

Yes, that, and that there’s no undercount of minorities in the South and West - which would definitely be the case if the count would have stopped in 5 days ...

[jimrtex]

97% completed US-wide (+0.4)

The 1-month data collection extension should be enough even for the areas most behind.

Also, the ruling pushes back the mandatory Dec. 31 reporting deadline for the population figures and apportionment count to an unspecified date.

Which further means, if Trump gets defeated, he may never see those numbers ...

97.0% total completion, is consistent with 66.3% self-response and 91.1% NRFU completion.

[jimrtex]

ACO's that need to average 2.0% or more daily to reach 98% of the NRFU workload by September 30. Report day September 24, data day September 23. 84.0% or less.

Baton Rouge, LA; Philadelphia-Franklin, PA; and Brooklyn 1, NY slide into this category. The 27 ACO at highest risk represent 11.7% of all ACO. Average daily gain is 1.65%, so few are likely to reach 98%. It appears that Sundays are a bit weaker (75% or so of weekdays, and Saturday just a small tad less). They might have trouble getting enumerators to work on Sundays, or they are waiting until the afternoon (after church services).

Average rate is for seven days (rolling average).

65.1 (1.97%, 10/10) Shreveport, LA (western and northern Louisiana)
66.7 (1.59%, 10/13) Window Rock, AZ (Navajo reservation)
72.3 (2.31%, 10/5) Columbus, GA (southern Georgia)
75.4 (2.04%, 10/5) Birmingham, AL (central Alabama)
77.0 (1.39%, 10/9) Mobile, AL (southern Alabama)
77.7 (2.19%, 10/3) Jackson, MS (western and northern Mississippi)
77.9 (1.61%, 10/6) Pensacola, FL (Redneck Riviera)
78.4 (1.89%, 10/4) Gwinnett County, GA (Gwinnett and points east)
78.9 (1.57%, 10/6) Colorado Springs, CO (southern Colorado)
79.6 (1.43%, 10/6) Durham, NC (north central, includes Greensboro, but not Raleigh or Winston-Salem)
80.1 (1.66%, 10/4) Charleston, SC (Low Country, South Carolina)
80.3 (1.44%, 10/6) Huntsville, AL (northern Alabama)
81.1 (1.64%, 10/4) Douglasville, GA (western Atlanta suburbs and points west.
81.4 (1.31%, 10/6) Columbia, SC (Midlands)
81.6 (1.99%, 10/2) Philadelphia-Penn, PA (north Philadelphia)
81.8 (1.54%, 10/4) Billings, MT (Montana)
82.0 (1.90%, 10/2) Maricopa West, AZ (Glendale and westward)
82.1 (1.47%, 10/4) Fort Bend County, TX (southern Houston suburbs, and down to Victoria)
82.2 (1.33%, 10/5) Tulsa, OK (northeast Oklahoma)
82.4 (1.64%, 10/3) Greenville, NC (eastern North Carolina)
82.5 (1.47%, 10/4) Lakeland, FL (south central peninsula)
82.7 (1.59%, 10/3) Tampa, FL (Hillsborough County)
83.2 (1.73%, 10/2) Atlanta, GA (Fulton County)
83.3 (1.44%, 10/4) Seminole County, FL (Seminole, Volusia, Brevard counties)
83.3 (1.56%, 10/3) Philadelphia-Franklin, PA (south and west Philadelphia)
83.7 (1.80%, 10/1) Brooklyn 1, NY (eastern Brooklyn)
83.7 (1.81%, 10/1) Baton Rouge, LA (Baton Rouge and areas to east and west)

This is a secondary group that need to average 1.5% or more daily to reach 98% of the NRFU workload by September 30. Report day September 24, data day September 23. Between 84.0% and 87.5%.

Flagstaff, AZ is new to the list, while 3 ACO have slipped into the 2% group. Laredo, TX has escaped. The average daily increase is 1.53% which could suggest that these ACO are in reasonable shape, except that daily completions are likely to decline as these areas surpass 90% (last mile).

It appears that some of the northern ACO have fairly low recent completions. It is likely that southern areas had more awareness of how far they were away, and hired more enumerators or brought in enumerators from elsewhere.

The 27 ACO at moderate risk represent 11.0% of all ACO.

84.1 (1.50%, 10/4) Winston-Salem, NC (northwestern North Carolina)
84.1 (1.53%, 10/4) Jacksonville, FL (Duval, Nassau, Baker counties)
84.6 (1.66%, 10/2) Baltimore, MD (Baltimore City)
85.3 (1.21%, 10/5) Memphis, TN (far western Tennessee)
85.3 (1.50%, 10/3) Albuquerque, NM (northern New Mexico, except Navajo Reservation)
85.4 (1.60%, 10/3) Cleveland, OH (Cuyahoga, excluding outer suburbs)
85.4 (1.64%, 10/2) West Palm Beach, FL (Palm Beach and Martin counties)
85.5 (1.20%, 10/5) Louisville, KY (western Kentucky)
85.5 (1.33%, 10/4) Fredericksburg, VA (northern Virginia, excluding Loudoun, Fairfax, Arlington counties, Alexandria)
85.6 (1.67%, 10/2) Tucson, AZ (southern Arizona)
85.6 (1.73%, 10/1) Akron, OH (northeastern Ohio)
85.7 (1.50%, 10/3) Fayetteville, NC (southeastern North Carolina)
85.7 (2.50%, 9/29) Macon, GA (central Georgia, south-central from Atlanta perspective)
86.2 (1.12%, 10/5) Chico, CA (Inland Northern California)
86.3 (0.83%, 10/9) Santa Rosa, CA (North Coast California)
86.5 (1.39%, 10/3) Gainesville, GA (nothern Georgia)
86.6 (1.59%, 10/1) Detroit, MI (Wayne County)
86.7 (1.00%, 10/6) Milwaukee, WI (Milwaukee County)
86.8 (1.87%, 9/30) Maricopa Central, AZ (Glendale and points west)
86.9 (1.70%, 10/1) Lexington, KY (eastern Kentucky)
87.2 (1.38%, 10/2) Allentown, PA (northeastern Pennsylvania)
87.2 (1.64%, 10/1) Ocala, FL (north central Peninsula)
87.3 (1.34%, 10/2) Flagstaff. AZ (northern Arizona)
87.3 (1.44%, 10/2) Lansing, MI (southern Michigan)
87.3 (1.90%, 9/30) Des Moines, IA (Iowa)
87.4 (1.74%, 10/1) Fort Myers, FL (Manatee, Sarasota, Charlotte, Lee)
87.5 (1.93%, 9/30) DeKalb County, GA (DeKalb, Clayton counties)

[jimrtex]

There is possibly a glitch in updating NRFU completion:

https://gis-portal.data.census.gov/arcgis/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=771cf5999c6a4611acb397a3a342e0b0

To make sure it is not some browser caching problem,

What does someone else see for

Minneapolis, MN
Montgomery County, TX
Milwaukee, WI
Ocala, FL
Fredericksburg, VA

[cinyc]

There is possibly a glitch in updating NRFU completion:

https://gis-portal.data.census.gov/arcgis/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=771cf5999c6a4611acb397a3a342e0b0

To make sure it is not some browser caching problem,

What does someone else see for...

Minneapolis, MN - 97.7%
Montgomery County, TX - 88.0%
Milwaukee, WI - 86.7%
Ocala, FL - 87.2%
Fredericksburg, VA - 85.7%

Are they going backwards? If so, it's because of the court order.

[jimrtex]

There is possibly a glitch in updating NRFU completion:

https://gis-portal.data.census.gov/arcgis/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=771cf5999c6a4611acb397a3a342e0b0

To make sure it is not some browser caching problem,

What does someone else see for...

Minneapolis, MN - 97.7%
Montgomery County, TX - 88.0%
Milwaukee, WI - 86.7%
Ocala, FL - 87.2%
Fredericksburg, VA - 85.7%

Are they going backwards? If so, it's because of the court order.

They all had no change from the previous day, except Fredericksburg which had only a 0.2% increase when has been around 1.3% per day.

May be an Australian hacker. Lucifer au Danube 2020. A few days in confinement and he may be singing a different tune (or perhaps not - they can be tricky and probably know the words to both Edelweiss and Waltzing Matilda)

[Tender Branson]

There is possibly a glitch in updating NRFU completion:

https://gis-portal.data.census.gov/arcgis/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=771cf5999c6a4611acb397a3a342e0b0

To make sure it is not some browser caching problem,

What does someone else see for...

Minneapolis, MN - 97.7%
Montgomery County, TX - 88.0%
Milwaukee, WI - 86.7%
Ocala, FL - 87.2%
Fredericksburg, VA - 85.7%

Are they going backwards? If so, it's because of the court order.

They all had no change from the previous day, except Fredericksburg which had only a 0.2% increase when has been around 1.3% per day.

May be an Australian hacker. Lucifer au Danube 2020. A few days in confinement and he may be singing a different tune (or perhaps not - they can be tricky and probably know the words to both Edelweiss and Waltzing Matilda)

If it were an Australian hacker, he might be singing a tune about Koalas, not Edelweiß.

[Tender Branson]

The CB has put out a press release saying that they will comply with the court order:

Census Bureau Statement on 2020 Census Court Order

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 25, 2020

The Census Bureau will comply with the Court’s order and continue our Nonresponse Followup Operation (NRFU).

Our office of general counsel is evaluating the ultimate impact of the order on the 2020 Census. Field staff have been instructed to continue with current operations until updates can be provided.

Meanwhile, the Census Bureau has continued to make steady progress as 97.0 percent of all households have been enumerated. You can still respond today at https://my2020census.gov

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2020/statement-on-court-order.html

[jimrtex]

There is possibly a glitch in updating NRFU completion:

https://gis-portal.data.census.gov/arcgis/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=771cf5999c6a4611acb397a3a342e0b0

To make sure it is not some browser caching problem,

What does someone else see for...

Minneapolis, MN - 97.7%
Montgomery County, TX - 88.0%
Milwaukee, WI - 86.7%
Ocala, FL - 87.2%
Fredericksburg, VA - 85.7%

Are they going backwards? If so, it's because of the court order.

They all had no change from the previous day, except Fredericksburg which had only a 0.2% increase when has been around 1.3% per day.

May be an Australian hacker. Lucifer au Danube 2020. A few days in confinement and he may be singing a different tune (or perhaps not - they can be tricky and probably know the words to both Edelweiss and Waltzing Matilda)

If it were an Australian hacker, he might be singing a tune about Koalas, not Edelweiß.

You may be confusing the Beach Boys and the Bee Gees
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jywVEmOk1PY

[jimrtex]

Thirty-five-day averages (8/17/2010 to 9/21/2010)

Total 2.33 (0.067% per day)
Internet 1.82% (0.052% per day)
Paper+Phone 0.51% (0.015% per day)

Twenty-eight-day averages (8/24/2010 to 9/21/2010)

Total 1.76 (0.063% per day)
Internet 1.31% (0.047% per day)
Paper+Phone 0.45% (0.016% per day)

At this rate, the USA would reach its 2010 response rate of 66.5% on September 27. The current estimate is that it will take 6.38 days, and there are 10 days available.

Two states reached their 2010 response rate in June: MI(15) and WA(30)
Two states reached their 2010 response rate in July:  NV(20) and KY(27)
Eight states reached their 2010 response rate in August: ID(1), CO(17), OR(21), UT(22), VA(24), NH(25), AZ (29) and OH (31).
Eleven states have reached their 2010 response rate in September: MD(3), MN(3), NJ(7), CT(8), ME(8), IN(11), CA(14), NE(14), AL(15), IL(18), DE(21)

Delaware reached its 2010 response rate on September 21, becoming the 23rd state to do so.

Florida is projected to reach its 2010 response rate on September 22 (gap is 0.1%)
Massachusetts is projected to reach its 2010 response rate on September 23 (gap is 0.2%)
Vermont is projected to reach its 2010 response rate on September 25 (gap is 0.3%)
South Dakota is projected to reach its 2020 response rate on September 28 (gap is 0.4%).

No states are projected to reach their 2010 response rate in the remainder of September, resulting in 27 states (53%) reaching their 2010 response rate during the official enumeration period.

The following six states would reach within 28 days.

Georgia is projected to reach its 2010 response rate on October 2.
Rhode Island is projected to reach its 2010 response rate on October 5.
New York is projected to reach its 2010 response rate on October 7.
Kansas is projected to reach its 2010 response rate on October 8.
Pennsylvania is projected to reach its 2010 response rate on October 15.
Tennessee is projected to reach its 2010 response rate on October 19.

8 states in remainder of October.
6 states + DC in November
2 states in December
1 state in 2021, West Virginia on February 12

Green-7: Reached (22)
in July (2): MI, WA;
in August (10): NV, KY, ID, CO, OR, UT, VA, NH (25), AZ, OH;
in September (11): MD(3), MN, NJ(7), CT(8), ME, IN, CA, NE, AL, IL, DE(21)
Green-6: By September 30 (4): FL, MA(23), VT(25), SD
Red-3: By October 18, 28 days (6): GA, RI(5), NY, KS, PA, TN
Red-4: October (8): AK, NM, TX, HI, NC, OK, LA, MS
Red-5: November (7): IA, WI, WY, AR, DC, MO, SC
Red-6: December (2): MT, ND
Red-7: 2021 (1): WV

[jimrtex]

Twenty-nine-day averages (8/24/2010 to 9/22/2010)

Total 1.81 (0.062% per day)
Internet 1.35% (0.046% per day)
Paper+Phone 0.46% (0.016% per day)

At this rate, the USA would reach its 2010 response rate of 66.5% on September 26. The current estimate is that it will take 4.82 days, and there are 9 days available.

Two states reached their 2010 response rate in June: MI(15) and WA(30)
Two states reached their 2010 response rate in July:  NV(20) and KY(27)
Eight states reached their 2010 response rate in August: ID(1), CO(17), OR(21), UT(22), VA(24), NH(25), AZ (29) and OH (31).
Eleven states have reached their 2010 response rate in September: MD(3), MN(3), NJ(7), CT(8), ME(8), IN(11), CA(14), NE(14), AL(15), IL(18), DE(21), FL(22)

Florida reached its 2010 response rate on September 22, becoming the 24rd state to do so.

Massachusetts is projected to reach its 2010 response rate on September 25 (gap is 0.2%)
Vermont is projected to reach its 2010 response rate on September 26 (gap is 0.3%)
South Dakota is projected to reach its 2020 response rate on September 27 (gap is 0.3%).

No states are projected to reach their 2010 response rate in the remainder of September, resulting in 27 states (53%) reaching their 2010 response rate during the official enumeration period.

The following five states would reach within 28 days.

Georgia is projected to reach its 2010 response rate on October 4.
Rhode Island is projected to reach its 2010 response rate on October 5.
New York is projected to reach its 2010 response rate on October 7.
Kansas is projected to reach its 2010 response rate on October 10.
Pennsylvania is projected to reach its 2010 response rate on October 17.

8 states in remainder of October.
6 states + DC in November
3 states in December
1 state in 2021, West Virginia on February 18

Green-7: Reached (24)
in July (2): MI, WA;
in August (10): NV, KY, ID, CO, OR, UT, VA, NH (25), AZ, OH;
in September (12): MD(3), MN, NJ(7), CT(8), ME, IN, CA, NE, AL, IL, DE(21), FL
Green-6: By September 30 (3): MA(23), VT(26), SD
Red-3: By October 18, 28 days (5): GA, RI(5), NY, KS, PA
Red-4: October (8): TN, NM, AK, TX, NC, OK, LA, IA
Red-5: November (7): HI, MS, AR, WI, WY, DC, MO
Red-6: December (3): SC. MT, ND
Red-7: 2021 (1): WV