The Official 2020 Census Thread

[jimrtex]

Reuters/Ipsos confirms that Americans support the citizenship question by a huge margin:

"Do you approve or disapprove of the Census asking about people's citizenship status ?"

67% approve
23% disapprove

"During the next Census, you may be asked about your citizenship status. What do you think is the primary reason this information is being collected ?"

30% This is a standard recordkeeping and reporting procedure
21% Improve counts of U.S. residents in every community
26% Help enforce US immigration laws and detain illegal immigrants
  8% Undercount immigrant communities

Link

A quarter of Americans are incredibly stupid, because confidentiality assures that no collected citizenship data is forwarded to ICE etc.

This is essentially a leading question.

If you favor enforcing US immigration laws and detaining illegal immigrants, you could reason that it is a good question that we should be asking.

If you disfavor enforcing US immigration laws and detaining illegal immigrants, you could reason that it is a bad question that they are asking.

In both cases they are projecting motive.

[jimrtex]

For blue state republicans in blue areas it makes sense not to participate.  The only recourse since your vote doesn't mean anything.  But you can reduce the power of that vote.  Particularly for states like California on the verge of losing a district. 

The 10-year Census is not primarily about elections or reapportionment.

It is to determine the size of the population and redistribution of federal funds to counties and communities.

Therefore, everyone should take part in this - and leave politics aside.

Besides, when will Trump fill out his form ?

I remember Obama and Clinton filling out their forms in 2010 and 2000 ...

It is incompetent to use 10 year-old data.

[jimrtex]

The Census Bureau will launch the response rate map today, which is updated daily (down to county, city, town and census tract level):

https://2020census.gov/en/response-rates.html

The map is now online.

14% of US households have already responded as of yesterday.

That is a very good start.

It was 16% in 2010, with a week headstart compared to now.

The map has just been updated with data submitted until yesterday.

More than 16% of US households have now responded.

That is already more than in 2010 - a week earlier.

Very good start.

People spending time at home right now might actually be good for Census „turnout“.

Nebraska continues to have the best response rate at 22%, while TX, NY, the Carolinas and GA are lagging.

The numbers are not comparable to 2010, though they may be at this point. In 2010, the participation rate was measured, while in 2020 it is the initial response rate.

Mail response may be difficult. I have drive to about a mile-and-a-half to find a mail box. In addition since they have to include an instruction book may increase the apparent complexity.

Presentation of one person at a time may also help response. The person completing the form fills out some basic information, including a list of household members.

Then the form is presented for each individual. Items included are name, age, sex, ethnicity (Hispanic or not), and race (White, Black, Asian, AIAN, NHOPI, and other). Instead of thinking about filling out 6 pages, you will already have done one and decided it was not too difficult.

In addition, the printed form is bilingual, which may be off-putting to some people.

2020 Census Printed Form (PDF)

German instructions (PDF)

Is there anything that would be confusing in translation?

How may responses will there be of German, Deutsch, Duitser, Allemand, hogy német, немец, or Němec?

It will be interesting to see what the response to the race questions are. White and Black are presented as check boxes, plus a fill-in-the blank.

It looks like the intent is to isolate MENA, since Egyptian and Lebanese are given as examples, and Iranian and Chaldean are given as extended examples. White is described in more ethnic terms: originating in Europe, the Middle East, or North Africa.

In addition, Haitian, Nigerian, etc. can indicate a distinction from African Americans. Previously, this distinction could only be made based on ACS Ancestry, and some African Americans would indicate African.

If a college has closed its dorms for the remainder of the semester, where do students live on April 1, 2020?

[jimrtex]

I did it a couple days ago.

What does everyone think of the questions?

I'm glad there were multiple racial/ethnic options. Was anything excluded that should not have been?

I hope in 2030 there is non-binary option for gender.

Yeah, there should be a 3rd gender option IMO.

Did the form ask for gay marriage too, or was that skipped as well (can’t remember) ?

Besides, asking racial data seems a bit outdated in 2020 and they might have removed that - just like they did with religion.

Citizenship would have been interesting though.

The question that is asked is the relationship of each person to Person 1, the person filling out the form:

How is this person related to Person 1? Mark ONE box.

Opposite-sex husband/wife/spouse
Opposite-sex unmarried partner
Same-sex husband/wife/spouse
Same-sex unmarried partner
Biological son or daughter
Adopted son or daughter
Stepson or stepdaughter
Brother or sister
Father or mother
Grandchild
Parent-in-law
Son-in-law or daughter-in-law
Other relative
Roommate or housemate
Foster child
Other nonrelative

Person 1 is the person paying the rent or who owns the house. If that person doesn't live there, any adult can fill out the form.

Once-upon-a-time, there was a designated head-of-household. An anecdote from the 1960 Census was that a man insisted that his wife was the head of the household. The census-taker finally convinced him that he was the head, and his wife was the neck. Whichever way the neck turned, the head followed.

*****

The US Census has never asked individuals their religious affiliation. At one time, there was a survey of religious congregations. In the 20th century this was done in years ending in '6'. Data was collected for 1946, but no money was appropriated to publish the results. After that private groups began making the survey.

*****

I was selected for a census test in 2016:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=233088.msg4992299#msg4992299]2016 Census Test

They were testing different ways to ask the question about ethnicity and race. In my case, they had added MENA, and treated ethnicity and race as non-orthogonal.

They took a fairly conservative approach, keeping the same racial categories. In my case, after you selected a race you got a set of check-boxes for sub-race, along with a fill-in with more options. But they can not duplicate that on paper. The blank is an addition for 2020.

*****

Race is needed for racial gerrymandering.

*****

They don't want "one adult citizen, one vote".

[jimrtex]

Did mine online today and agree with the comments that it was super easy.  I've done the ACS (American Community Survey) census before (the one that's used for employment and many other statistics) and it was much more extensive than the general one.

The ACS is done annually and replaced the „long form“ of the old 10-year Census (after 2000). It is only completed by a small sample of the US population though.

The ACS uses a very large sample (between 1/6 and 1/8) of households, but this is spread out over a 5-year period (60-monthly subsamples).

People were less willing to fill out the long form (and the short form was included within it). People probably are even less willing to complete the ACS, but follow-up can be started sooner.

[jimrtex]

The biggest surprise so far is Mississippi:

It trailed the final US-wide response rate by a lot in 2010, but is now far ahead of the US average.

I looked through the states by congressional district. Some interesting results, where the districts fall into different color levels:

AL, CA, WA high tech employment in Microsoft, Silicon Valley, and Huntsville.

IL, PA, VA higher response in suburbs?

OH effect of gerrymandering?

NY-5 it says it is plurality African-American, but a big chunk are from the Caribbean.

MI, MN, and WI. The denominator in the response rates is housing units not "occupied primary residents". When determining census tracts, there are both population and housing unit limits. In some summer areas, the number of housing units is controlling.

WV this may be due to a similar effect, with large number of abandoned housing units in coal country.

TX effect of fajita strips?

[jimrtex]

Can anyone give a proper explanation why the final mail participation rate from 2010, which was 74%, was re-calculated down to 66.5% in the current 2020 response map ?

The only explanation I can come up with is that the number of households in the US went up during the past 10 years, from 125 to 135 million, so the new base of 135 million would be used as a starting point and the final responses from 2010 were re-calculated as a share of it.

Anyway, no matter if we use the original 74% or the re-calculated 66.5% from 2010, it looks as if 2020 returns will top both.

It is likely related to factors mentioned in this article which was published in March 2010.

New Measure of Participation in the 2010 Census

In 2010, the Census Bureau tried to mail out a form to every address that was potentially residential.

In 2020, the Census Bureau tried to mail out an invitation to every address (some are sent a paper form as well).

In 2020, the number of housing units is about 139M. The number of households was about 120M. Not all housing units contain a household. It is normal for 5% or more of apartments to be vacant. One tenant moves out, and the next tenant doesn't move in for a month or two later. An adult child loses their job, and moves in with their parents. Newly weds who owned their own homes, combine households. Some housing units are seasonal.

A retired couple moves between Arizona and Minnesota with the seasons. Maybe they arrive after Thanksgiving but wait until May to return. They are in Arizona on April 1, but they sleep in Minnesota 7 months per year. Maybe they decide to throw the Arizona invitation in the trash, rather than inform the Census Bureau.

The Census Bureau will have some bad addresses, which will be returned. This may be less of a problem in 2020 vs 2010, but not a non-problem.

So in 2010 after they followed up, the Census Bureau would find that there should not have been an initial response, because nobody lived at an address. This improves the response rate, and would be a better measure of how people participated.

In 2020, they don't know how many letters they sent to vacant housing units. So the initial response rate is somewhat lower than it will be at a later date. So to compare censuses, they should use comparable measurement.

[jimrtex]

WV is already pretty bad, but McDowell County has a 0.5% response rate so far.

Are there even any people left, or just abandoned housing units ?

I guess most of WV doesn’t have internet either to get counted.

Or they don't have home mail delivery. About 95.4% of housing units are being contacted by self-response, where an invitation is sent to a residence (not a resident). The resident can respond by internet, or request a phone call or paper form. In some cases, the initial invitation will include a paper form. This is used in areas with low internet access, or language or other issues (the paper form is bilingual English-Spanish, double sided with English on one side, and Spanish on the other.

In about 4.5% of the housing units (around 5.9 million) update-leave is used. In this method, primarily for housing units where mail delivery is not to the location of the housing unit. a census enumerator leaves a form as well as an invitation to use the internet.

But you will see that this type of enumeration has been delayed due to COVID-19.

2020 Census Operational Adjustments Due to COVID-19

Originally scheduled from March 15-April 17, it has been delayed from March 29-May 1.

Even under the best of circumstances, only about 13/34 of households would have been contacted. Because of the delay, none have. A person can respond online, by entering their address - but realistically how many people would know about that? TV or radio stations might not mention that "some" listeners won't be getting forms on schedule, particularly since they might not have gotten it by now anyhow. The Welch News is quite small, and the county government is only open for emergencies. Perhaps the library is closed.

This app shows the different Type of Enumeration Areas (TEAS). If you zoom in far enough, you can see the percentage of housing units in each census tract that utilize update-leave. McDowell County is the southernmost county in West Virginia.

2020 Census: Type of Enumeration Area (TEA) Viewer

I estimate only 0.4% of housing units got an invitation by mail. Based on households/housing units about 31% of housing units are vacant. Remembe McDowell has lost 80% of its post-WWII population. Even assuming that households are 1/2 the size of then (4.6 vs 2.3 persons/household), the number of households (and therefore need for housing has declined by 60%). You can take about 42% of housing units out of service, and still have 31% vacancy.

[jimrtex]

WV is already pretty bad, but McDowell County has a 0.5% response rate so far.

Are there even any people left, or just abandoned housing units ?

I guess most of WV doesn’t have internet either to get counted.

Or they don't have home mail delivery. About 95.4% of housing units are being contacted by self-response, where an invitation is sent to a residence (not a resident). The resident can respond by internet, or request a phone call or paper form. In some cases, the initial invitation will include a paper form. This is used in areas with low internet access, or language or other issues (the paper form is bilingual English-Spanish, double sided with English on one side, and Spanish on the other.

In about 4.5% of the housing units (around 5.9 million) update-leave is used. In this method, primarily for housing units where mail delivery is not to the location of the housing unit. a census enumerator leaves a form as well as an invitation to use the internet.

But you will see that this type of enumeration has been delayed due to COVID-19.

2020 Census Operational Adjustments Due to COVID-19

Originally scheduled from March 15-April 17, it has been delayed from March 29-May 1.

Even under the best of circumstances, only about 13/34 of households would have been contacted. Because of the delay, none have. A person can respond online, by entering their address - but realistically how many people would know about that? TV or radio stations might not mention that "some" listeners won't be getting forms on schedule, particularly since they might not have gotten it by now anyhow. The Welch News is quite small, and the county government is only open for emergencies. Perhaps the library is closed.

This app shows the different Type of Enumeration Areas (TEAS). If you zoom in far enough, you can see the percentage of housing units in each census tract that utilize update-leave. McDowell County is the southernmost county in West Virginia.

2020 Census: Type of Enumeration Area (TEA) Viewer

I estimate only 0.4% of housing units got an invitation by mail. Based on households/housing units about 31% of housing units are vacant. Remembe McDowell has lost 80% of its post-WWII population. Even assuming that households are 1/2 the size of then (4.6 vs 2.3 persons/household), the number of households (and therefore need for housing has declined by 60%). You can take about 42% of housing units out of service, and still have 31% vacancy.

Thanks,

but why are these households not getting mail in the first place ?

Isn’t US mail supposed to deliver in all places - except in overly rural areas such as Alaska or Wyoming ?

McDowell County is very poor, but not exactly „very rural“, so I don’t understand why 99.5% of households there get no mail, not even once a week ...

I also read on Census Bureau’s „Quick Facts“ that 65% of county households indeed have Internet access, so the response rate should be higher.

But if they got no mail invitations in the 1st place ... not.

I read a lot about Update Leave (UL), Type of Enumeration Area (TEA), and Basic Collection Units (BCU) but don't really understand the criteria.

A BCU is an area that can be assigned to a field enumerator, whether for the initial contact or a non-response followup (NRFU). The concept is that enumerators can be assigned dynamically by supervisors, and that supervision will be remote, rather than face-to-face. I think enumerators can work somewhat like a gig employment, where an enumerator can indicate their availability, and that visits can be optimized geographically and temporarily. You don't want to make an in-person visit when no one is home, and you want to minimize travel time between visits (don't want an enumerator to be lost, or knocking on doors when the resident is at work), since the enumerator is paid by the hour.

BCU are supposed to have some homogeneity, so that various assumptions can be made about how they will respond. This is probably highly correlated with income, language, race, citizenship, age, etc. In 2010, an average enumerator did about 200 households, so I think BCU may be relatively small. Remember that in most areas it is hoped that only 20% (made up by me, I think this is typical) of housing units will need in-person followup. A 10-block area might only need 40 follow-up visits.

All of a BCU have a common TEA. It thus appears that there may be housing units that could receive their initial invitation by mail that get dragged into UL, and that this happened in places like McDowell.

In 2010, the equivalent concept to UL was based on city-style street addresses. Rural roads may not have names, and there is really no need for street addresses, which were largely developed for postal delivery. If you go to a small town of 2000, there is no reason to ask for a street address, when you are looking for Mr. Jones. You ask someone along the street, especially if you are afoot, on horseback, or driving a wagon.

But during the last couple of decades there has been an increase in development of street-style addresses for use with 911 (emergency phone service for ambulance, fire, or police). In areas developed on a PLSS grid, the roads in a county might be numbered 1st, 2nd, ... for north-south roads, A, B, C for east-west roads (in some places these might be named with letters of the alphabet). Addresses might be based on distance along a road, with a house 0.23 miles east of 3rd Road as 323 B Road.

The USPS might or might not use the same system. On Rural Routes they would use Box Numbers, which would generally be in sequence, but might be assigned in an ad hoc basis.

But not everyone gets mail at their home. If you are in a rural area, you might not want anything of value placed in your mail box. It is easier to go into town and pick up your mail at the post office.

Anyhow, Update Leave designates the method of initial contact. An enumerator goes to each potential residence, and knocks on the door. If someone answers, they hand the person a packet, which includes a printed census form, but also includes an invitation to participate by mail. If possible, they also get a mailing address. They also verify locations - their device includes a GPS locator.

The objective of the census is to count everyone, count them only once, and count them in the correct location.

They can also delete units, and correct locations, add units.

Some of the quality control is based on enumerators deleting a large share of units, claiming that they were enumerating at large distances from where the house is supposed to be, doing several addresses while at the same location. High scores will trigger a review. Medium scores might trigger a sampled review. Low scores might trigger a sampled review at low frequency.

After the initial in-person visit, there will be additional mailings just like for the self-response areas where the there are five additional mailings. If the house is not visible from the street, or an unfriendly resident, they can be put on the follow-up program immediately.

It may be the large number of vacancies in McDowell County that pushing into Update Leave. If nobody responds because there is no one there, it is better to find that out initially than to send someone out later.

[jimrtex]

WV is already pretty bad, but McDowell County has a 0.5% response rate so far.

Are there even any people left, or just abandoned housing units ?

I guess most of WV doesn’t have internet either to get counted.

In about 4.5% of the housing units (around 5.9 million) update-leave is used. In this method, primarily for housing units where mail delivery is not to the location of the housing unit. a census enumerator leaves a form as well as an invitation to use the internet.

But you will see that this type of enumeration has been delayed due to COVID-19.

2020 Census Operational Adjustments Due to COVID-19

Originally scheduled from March 15-April 17, it has been delayed from March 29-May 1.

Even under the best of circumstances, only about 13/34 of households would have been contacted. Because of the delay, none have. A person can respond online, by entering their address - but realistically how many people would know about that? TV or radio stations might not mention that "some" listeners won't be getting forms on schedule, particularly since they might not have gotten it by now anyhow. The Welch News is quite small, and the county government is only open for emergencies. Perhaps the library is closed.

They should not have delayed that specific update-leave operation IMO:

If it’s just about leaving an invitation letter or paper questionnaires at a household, they can drive around from one house to another and drop off the materials there in the mailbox or on the porch - without having any contact with people, spreading the virus.

The same is true for later census taking: the 0.5 million census takers need to wear gloves and masks and keep 6 feet distance with the interviewed person and everyone’s OK.

Completely suspending the followup interviews would do incredible damage to the whole 2020 Census, because it would increase the polarization further: well-off households respond and get counted, urban/rural poor households, inner-city migrant areas & homeless are not.

The Census Bureau has delayed field operation another two weeks (until April 14).

Census Bureau Update on 2020 Census Field Operations

The original schedule for self-response was:

First letter: March 12-20
Second letter: March 16-24

If no response:

Post Card: March 26-April 3

Letter with paper questionnaire April 8-16

Final postcard April 20-27

Non-response follow-up was not expected until May 13.

The letters are spread out over nine days to lower workload for the post office, and traffic on the census bureau website, and for their telephone help lines.

I received my second letter several days after I had responded. I know someone who had received their post card on March 26.

Originally the Update Leave was scheduled from March 15-April 17. Perhaps, this would be tapering out, since you can't assume consistent rates of contact among all 50,000 enumerators. While you might be able to move someone to the next county, you can't move them to another state. If you assume that most will have been contacted by earlier in April, then you can work on the stragglers in mid-April.

IIUC, once the initial contact was made, UL households would be treated the same as the Self-Response areas, except there would be no need to send out a paper form on the fourth contact. This would have meant the final post card would be from April 23-May 26.

Since the UL was worked on a geographical basis (by BCU) you can overlap the NRFU with the last of the UL initial contacts.

The Census Bureau is also hiring more temporary workers, some to replace workers who drop out (workers probably skew older - since those who are under 50 can find full-time employment in a 3% economy). There may also be some parents of school-age children who no longer are at school during the day. But they can also assign workers to reduce the extended completion.

Meanwhile, a worker at the Jeffersonville, Indiana (across the river from Louisville) has tested positive for COVID-19, and the facility is undergoing a deep clean. This has been the main form-processing center since at least 1960.

[jimrtex]

Is it theoretically possible to delay the finalization/presentation of the 2020 results to 2021, so that census takers can visit non-responding or rural households during the fall and the data then gets finalized during winter/spring next year ?

Usually, the results need to be made available by December 31 of the Census year ...

They try to hit March or early April for the PL 94-171 redistricting data. The 94 refers to the 94th Congress (1975-6), and not 1994. This is the law that requires the Census Bureau to coordinate with the States in producing data for redistricting. This has resulted in producing data at a block level to facilitate fine-tuned gerrymandering.

The December 31 is only state level used for apportioning representatives to Congress.

Many state legislatures only meet in the spring. A March 2021 release of data would permit redistricting to be completed in time for filing deadlines which are as early as December 2021.

There will likely be controversy over whether to impute data. 15% of Americans move in any given year. As you push later and later, fewer neighbors will know who lived next door, or be sure when they moved out.

3rd-party records may help. The IRS will know who filed in 2019 for example. But such tracking gets expensive.

Maybe as a result of the 2020 Census, a national registry and ID card will be implemented.

[jimrtex]

This shows the type of initial contact for self-response areas.

2020 Census: Mail Contact Strategies Viewer

Some areas received a paper form with the first mailing. These respondents could either respond by internet, mail-in paper form, or telephone.

In the internet first areas, they would have to request a paper form to be sent to them or wait until one arrives with the 4th communication (beginning on April 8).

I was looking at the county response rate for Missouri. These are becoming more interesting as counties begin to pass the 40% threshold. There are a couple of rural counties in NW and SW Missouri that have 40%+ response, with it almost all on paper.

[jimrtex]

Daily Response Rate Update:

34.7% (+1.6)

Top:

42.7% Wisconsin

Bottom:

20.8% Alaska

4 WI counties are already at 51%+ response and are now shaded blue on the county map.

3 of them are in the Milwaukee suburbs.

Also, 1 in IA and 1 in NE are blue now - but surprisingly none yet in MN.

Those in IA and NE are fairly rural, and a large response was by mail. In some areas, the initial invitation included a paper form. Respondents could still respond by Internet or phone. But it appears they were not uncomfortable doing the paper form, and it was not a hardship to mail it back - they are postage page.

A definition of Midwest might be areas with widespread high rates of census participation:

NE, MN, IA, WI, IL, IN, MI, OH.

ND, SD, KS are lower because large parts are Update Leave which has not began yet.

Congressional districts that are over 40% are 26D, 24D, and 1I (MI-3, Amash).

[jimrtex]

Is it theoretically possible to delay the finalization/presentation of the 2020 results to 2021, so that census takers can visit non-responding or rural households during the fall and the data then gets finalized during winter/spring next year ?

Usually, the results need to be made available by December 31 of the Census year ...

It is a statutory requirement that apportionment be delivered within 9 months of Census Day (April 1 to December 31). Congress could conceivably change this.

Through 1910, Congress would receive the population data, and then determine the number of representatives and the apportionment method.

Following the 1920 Census, Congress could not decide on a number of representatives or an apportionment. Agricultural areas that had been filling up had stalled during the droughts of the 1910's. Industrialization had results in population increases in cities in the east. They couldn't prevent losses by expanding the House, so they did nothing. There were also concerns about dislocations due to the World War (I).

Around 1929, President Hoover pushed for determining a new method of apportionment in advance of the Census, so that it could be done automatically (and would be done at all). There were actually two methods permitted, but they produced the same result.

After the 1940 Census, there would have been a difference, so Congress chose the method that favored the Democrats (a seat in Alabama rather than Michigan).

Ever since it has been automatic, except when Alaska and Hawaii were added just prior to the 1960 Census. They were given a representative each resulting in a total of 437, increasing the size of the electoral college from 531 to 537 for the 1960 Election. But the House reverted to 435 after the 1960 Census, producing an Electoral College of 535. The 23rd Amendment was passed in 1961, so there never was an election with 535 electors,

[jimrtex]

Daily update:

36.2% (+1.5)

My guess for tomorrow is 38% for the data submitted until end-March (there could be a final rush before reference date April 1, printed on the letters).

That would put the rate on track for 70% by the end of April.

And 75%+ by end-May.

13 counties (or independent cities) are now over 50%.

6 in Wisconsin. Wow!
3 in Iowa
1 in Illinois
1 in Nebraska
1 in Virginia (Fairfax City)
1 in New Mexico (Los Alamos)

Best areas are in the Midwest, areas with a strong tech sector, and suburban counties.

[jimrtex]

Looking at the map above, I find it fairly interesting that both Iowa and Tennessee (large, rural states) are almost completely shaded blue - indicating almost 100% US-mail coverage and almost no yellow update/leave areas.

Even in Appalachian Tennessee virtually every household gets served by the US postal service.

These are characteristics of Update Leave areas.

UL can occur in geographic areas that:
- Do not have city-style addresses.
- Do not receive mail through city-style addresses.
- Receive mail at post office boxes or at drop points.
- Have been affected by major or natural disasters.
- Have high concentrations of seasonally vacant housing

On Page 15 of this document is the comparable map for 2010.

2020 Census Detailed Operational Plan for: 35. Update Leave Operation (UL) (pdf)

Audubon County, Iowa has named streets (100th to 350th from North to South, with an increment of 10 per section). The streets from west to east are named for birds (Avocet to Swift). If on the section line it is an Avenue, on a half-section line Place. The towns: Audubon, Exira, etc. have their own historic streets. If you go to Google Earth, the road grid is obvious from a long way out, with farm locations obvious perhaps five acres set aside for a house, barns, and other outbuildings, with the remainder of the section in crops (corn or soybeans).

There are two tiny areas in Audubon County that are Update Leave. The one in Kimballton appears to be a small apartment complex with perhaps a dozen or so apartments. Maybe they don't have individual mail delivery. There is another area in the city of Audubon that appears to have been a trailer park. If you look at historic pictures using Google Earth there were 20 or so single-wides under trees in low resolution USDA images. As you go forward in time, there are fewer and fewer. One winter picture shows just trees. And now it appears that it a new industrial building.

You may be focusing on the "Leave" and not on the "Update". Ideally, the Census will survey everywhere that a person might live. But they have to have an accurate inventory of all housing, and it really can't be done in a haphazard fashion. Before the 2010 Census, census workers walked the entire country matching addresses with GPS locations. Sometime addresses get mixed up or are irregular. Before the 2020 Census, they compared satellite images and determined only about 30% of the country needed to be updated due to changes.

McDowell County, West Virginia does not have a street grid, with roads running along the creeks. They might get mail on a mail route where the address is a box number, or perhaps they have a box in a post office. It is possible that the large number of vacancies is triggering update/leave. It is unclear how you measure "seasonal vacancies"? Perhaps it is any month with over X% of housing units vacant. In McDowell this is January-December.

[jimrtex]

The CB now has a ranking page for census response too, which allows you to show rankings by filtered population size.

For exampe, among counties with 100k+ population, Washington County (WI) leads with 62% ahead of Carver County (MN) (also 62%).

Among cities with 100k+ population, Sterling Heights (MI) is the best so far with 65%, followed by Centennial (CO) at 64%, Arvada (CO) 62%, Naperville (IL) 60% and Meridian (ID) at 59%.

Washington is the most remote of the WOW counties around Milwaukee. Carver is the most remote of the 7 counties in the traditional Minneapolis-St Paul grouping (and outside the earlier 5 county grouping). A large share of the count is in the peninsula south of the wealthiest Hennepin suburbs.

Suburbs of Detroit, Denver, Denver, Chicago, and Boise.

Naperville is a fair distance from Chicago, almost as far as the satellites of Waukegan, Aurora, and Joliet. These three at one time had an independent industrial base, while Naperville had a lot of farm land, now converted to housing and offices.

[jimrtex]

Delivery of 2020 Census Paper Questionnaires Begin

April 8, 2020 – About 64 million households across the nation are receiving a paper questionnaire in the coming days as the U.S. Census Bureau continues to ensure responding to the census is easier than ever.

Of the nation’s households, 46.2% have already responded to the 2020 Census. The remaining households will receive a paper questionnaire starting April 8.

“If you’re among the nearly half of all the nation’s households that have responded already, thank you!” said Census Bureau Director Dr. Steven Dillingham. “It has never been easier to respond on your own, whether online at 2020census.gov, over the phone, or by mail — all without having to meet a census taker. It’s something everyone can do while practicing social distancing at home to make a difference today, tomorrow and the next 10 years.”

While nearly half of all households have responded online to the 2020 Census, some may prefer to receive a paper questionnaire. About 22% of the country received a paper form at the beginning of the census.

Some areas where census takers were originally going to hand-deliver forms in person will now receive a letter in the mail from the Census Bureau reminding them to participate, including many households in Puerto Rico. Even if households don’t receive a letter in the mail, the Census Bureau will drop off a census invitation and paper form as soon as it is safe to do so. Census takers will also follow up with all households that do not respond on their own.

Households receiving the paper questionnaire can still respond online or by phone, or they can return it by mail in the enclosed envelope. They can choose to respond online at 2020census.gov in English or 12 other languages, or receive assistance through language guides and videos available in 59 languages. When you respond online, use the Census ID from the letter or provide your address.

“Once you have responded, please encourage your family, friends and loved ones to complete the census too,” Dillingham said.

The public should respond for the number of people living at that address as of April 1. Responding now to the 2020 Census will minimize the need for a census taker to follow up and visit your home in person later this year.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2020/delivery-of-2020-census-paper-questionnaires.html

I think they should write „50.000$ fine if you do not respond“ onto the envelope.

I don't know if you noticed the portion of the news release that I placed in bold. It has always been possible to respond by internet, even without an invitation. There is likely some negotiation over your address.

The envelope says: (in a box with a black border).

YOUR RESPONSE IS
REQUIRED BY LAW

SU RESPUESTA ES
REQUERIDA POR LEY

The UK got out of the EU just in time, before they could start imposing periods where commas belong, and vice versa, inverted quotes, and suffixing the eurodollar sign.

[jimrtex]

I know that the envelope says: „Your response is required by law“.

But many people don’t care.

That’s why they should additionally print „You will face a 50.000$ fine or 5 years imprisonment if you do not fill out your form“.

In this case, people would „get it“.

I don't get this $50 fine.

[jimrtex]

Delivery of 2020 Census Paper Questionnaires Begin

April 8, 2020 – About 64 million households across the nation are receiving a paper questionnaire in the coming days as the U.S. Census Bureau continues to ensure responding to the census is easier than ever.

Of the nation’s households, 46.2% have already responded to the 2020 Census. The remaining households will receive a paper questionnaire starting April 8.

“If you’re among the nearly half of all the nation’s households that have responded already, thank you!” said Census Bureau Director Dr. Steven Dillingham. “It has never been easier to respond on your own, whether online at 2020census.gov, over the phone, or by mail — all without having to meet a census taker. It’s something everyone can do while practicing social distancing at home to make a difference today, tomorrow and the next 10 years.”

While nearly half of all households have responded online to the 2020 Census, some may prefer to receive a paper questionnaire. About 22% of the country received a paper form at the beginning of the census.

Some areas where census takers were originally going to hand-deliver forms in person will now receive a letter in the mail from the Census Bureau reminding them to participate, including many households in Puerto Rico. Even if households don’t receive a letter in the mail, the Census Bureau will drop off a census invitation and paper form as soon as it is safe to do so. Census takers will also follow up with all households that do not respond on their own.

Households receiving the paper questionnaire can still respond online or by phone, or they can return it by mail in the enclosed envelope. They can choose to respond online at 2020census.gov in English or 12 other languages, or receive assistance through language guides and videos available in 59 languages. When you respond online, use the Census ID from the letter or provide your address.

“Once you have responded, please encourage your family, friends and loved ones to complete the census too,” Dillingham said.

The public should respond for the number of people living at that address as of April 1. Responding now to the 2020 Census will minimize the need for a census taker to follow up and visit your home in person later this year.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2020/delivery-of-2020-census-paper-questionnaires.html

You may have missed the part I highlighted.

They are going to mail out invitations in the update/leave areas.

[jimrtex]

What is the most likely scenario after May, when the online/mail/phone response dries up and around 75% of households have responded ?

Will the Census Bureau just wait until the Coronavirus is over in the US by September/October and only then send out their census takers for the non-response households ?

Will they do earlier in June/July, but with protection gear ?

Will they send additional mail reminders in June, July and August - that were previously not planned ?

Will they try calling non-responding households ? But where do they get the phone numbers from ?

More TV ads ? More digital ads ?

The original Non-Response Follow Up (NRFU) was scheduled from May 13-July 31. The first delay in field operation pushed this back two weeks to end August 14. I don't know whether the second delay added another two weeks. The country is broken down into Basic Collection Units which can be assigned to a single enumerator. It is apparently quite modular, with assignments made electronically, with the enumerators given optimized routing, and predictions of best contact time, so that it might be possible to hire more workers. Training can be done online, and I think there can even be flexible hours.

The Self-Response areas have been going to schedule.

March 12-20 1st Letter.
March 16-24 2nd Letter.
March 26-April 3 Post Card (for non-respondents)
April 8-16 Questionnaire (for non-respondents)
April 20-27 Final post card.

The mail-outs are spread out over several days, to prevent overloading of census servers. The USPS was told to spread out delivery. I assume that those who got the first letter on March 12 got their second on March 16.

There was a definite drop-off after completion of the second mailing. The postcard (3rd mailing) may have helped sustain returns, and happened during the surge around the official April 1st Census Day. Since then returns have really fell off a cliff, around 0.5% per day.

Paper forms are now being mailed out to areas that were Internet only.

There will be a final postcard beginning April 20 reminding people that it is not too late.

The original NRFU was 1-1/2 months after the Census Date, and now will begin at least two months afterwards. You will be getting the new tenant in an apartment who has lived there for two months, and nobody will really remember the previous tenant. You could probably track them down with an investigation - but that is too expensive.

Other activities that have been delayed are the count of people living rough, which was scheduled for April 1. People in transitory housing such as RV Parks and hotels (April 9-May 4). Early NRFU which was scheduled to begin on April 9 in areas around college campuses. Obviously it was in April to catch college students before they left. But they left in March, and won't be around in May or June. Group quarters such as college dorms.

Maybe they can complete enough to do an apportionment count, then have a 2021 Census (paid as part of a stimulus bill). The apportionment could be done with a hold harmless, so no state lost a representative as a result of a second apportionment.

[jimrtex]

If you answer online can you skip questions or does it have a bunch of annoying must fill answer fields that you can normally skip on the paper census.

The online form is the same as for paper and phone ... and it's quite short and basic.

You can complete it in 5-10 minutes.

The long-form doesn't exist anymore in the 10-year census and was replaced by the annual American Community Survey, which only a handful of US households answer each year (= sample).

 I did it online. I did get to skip questions but only after clicking through twice. The Census was very short and I hope this means I'm not bothered with any followup.

Your entries are checked by an algorithm for flawed entries, for example if you typed in your age as 169 years old or entered „Borg“ as your race or „Ferengi“ as your ancestry, it is likely that you still get visited by a census taker in the fall.

On the other hand, this is secondary of importance to the Census Bureau. They are more concerned with visiting those households where nothing came back to them ... despite 5 letters and repeat letters to respond.

The paper form has long asked for both a birthdate and age. There is phenomena where more people report they are 80, with dropoffs for 79 and 81. If you take out the 0 and 5 minispikes, age is pretty smooth.

When you get older, you are less sure whether you will reach the next benchmark, and almost 80 becomes 80. I guess it depends on what the meaning of is is.

At one time, when there were actual enumerators, newborns were listed as 3 mos, 7 mos., etc. Now they are 0 years until their first birthday.

On the electronic form, I think it calculates the age after entering the birthday, and asks you to confirm your age.

Follow-up is statistically-based, similar to how they audit taxes. If you are a factory worker and your 1040Z matches your W-2, you won't be audited. If you are "self-employed" your odds go up.

For the 2016 Census Test, I got a follow-up call. I thought they were going to go through my answers and check whether or not I would give the same answer. Instead , they went through a v...e...r...y long list of possible occupants that you might have missed. If you live alone, they are pretty strange, since they were asking about non-existent children who were away at school, in shared-custody. The weirdest is when they asked if I had recently checked under the seat cushion in my couch.

[jimrtex]

45.7% today (+0.6)

Hopefully the paper questionnaires will lead to a boost next week ...

46.2% today (+0.5)

Getting slower and slower ...

Part of the problem is that the usual knock-and-drop operations in rural and other areas are currently on hold due to the coronavirus.

Not really.

Update/leave operations are only for 4.5% of all US households.

95.5% of the households have already received an invitation to respond, and more than half of them didn’t so far.

This varies quite a bit around the country.

McDowell County, WV is about 99.6% Update Leave. The last I checked they were up to 2.3%. You can respond without an invitation, but it may be somewhat hard to establish where you live.

When you enter the 12-letter code, your address appears, and you are asked if that is your address. If you don't have a code, you have to go through a process to establish your location.

I couldn't find a data set that would allow calculation of TEAs by county or state. For McDowell I had to zoom in with the TEA viewer and click on each census tract.

The 4.5% would be percentage of housing units, not households. The actual response rate is understated at this point. Not all housing units are actual units. The update portion of update and leave is to verify existence/non-existence of some buildings. If a building does not exist, or is a barn full of tractors, or is vacant, it is not non-respondent.

The current US snapshot US Quick Facts says that there are 138 mn housing units, but 119 million households. There is nobody to respond in 19 mn housing units.

Even if every household responded, the response rate would only be 86%. In addition, it appears that there are another 7 million structures, etc. that are included in the census coverage.

The denominator for response rates will decrease over time.

[jimrtex]

I know that the envelope says: „Your response is required by law“.

But many people don’t care.

That’s why they should additionally print „You will face a 50.000$ fine or 5 years imprisonment if you do not fill out your form“.

In this case, people would „get it“.

I don't get this $50 fine.

50k $ !



People would think twice about skipping this decade-only survey, if they had to pay most of their annual salary or face a multi-year prison sentence ...

$50,000?

Many moons ago, the oil company that my employer was contracted to had visitors from their German subsidiary. They were shown how we worked, and so were shown how to code data for punch cards. This was way below their expertise level, but was to show them how the data they got was actually produced. They were at high enough level, and European enough, that they thought it normative to buy a gift of cologne for the wife of an American counterpart.

The forms were sent off for someone to actually keypunch the data. It came back with a nasty note to not make your '1's look like '7's.

After a multi-year prison sentence, non-citizens could be deported.

[jimrtex]

You may have missed the part I highlighted.

They are going to mail out invitations in the update/leave areas.

I have not missed it.

It's good that they are mailing it out now, but of what use is it ? As you said, most of these places have no mail box. It's better to follow up in person during the fall and count those places.

Anyway, the mail questionnaires are going out between April 8-16, which means it takes another week or so for people to fill them out, send them back and be processed.

Any spike in responses will likely only show up at the end of April ... but I have hope that 70% can still be reached with this second wave.

It's not exactly true that they don't have mail boxes. Box 120 RR 2, Bugtussle, OK might be  a legitimate mailing address. But the Census Bureau might not know where it is. And there may be other structures nearby that they don't have addresses for. They also wanted consistent handling of an area, so you wouldn't have some houses in self-response, and neighboring houses update/leave. The precise criteria is not known. There were comments made by groups purporting to be civil rights advocacy group complaining that the Census Bureau had dropped too many areas from Update/Leave.

The intent of the update/leave areas was that first contact be in-person by a census worker who was getting an accurate inventory of housing. After the initial contact, the house would enter the main sequence with followup letters. If they had been able to start the process on March 15*, it would have been mostly in phase with the rest of the country.

Apparently based on a recent press release, a very few update/leave housing units did get covered before they suspended field operations.