The Official 2020 Census Thread

[jimrtex]

Question:

If the 2020 Census data release is delayed from the mandatory Dec. 31 deadline to later (up to April 30, but I guess they could also release it earlier if they process it faster), will the Bureau release mid-2020 state estimates by December 31 instead ?

I guess they did not do so during December 2000 and December 2010 and only released the actual Census counts.

The 2010 mid-year estimate was released in February 2011. The 2009 mid-year estimate had been released in December 2009.

These were based on the 2000 Census.

The 2011 mid-year estimate was released in December 2011. It was based on the 2010 Census and included a 2010 mid-year estimate. Census estimates for this decade (and likely previous decades include 3 numbers for the census year (The population reported for the Census, the corrected population count, which is used as the estimate base, and a mid-year estimate).

There was a 2000 mid-year estimate, but it has an Internet release date of 2005. It does not appear that there were 1980 and 1990 mid-year estimates.

The income tax deadline was delayed three months, which would make producing the 2020 estimate harder (tax data is used to estimate interstate migration - it is stripped of financial information so all they have is name-address associations).

I doubt they want to release July 2020 estimates based on the 2010 Census at the time they released the 2020 Census because it would be confusing - and it is even more unlikely they would release the 2020 estimate just to get some numbers out.

[Tender Branson]

Florida man arrested for threatening census taker with gun

A Florida man was arrested for using an assault-style weapon to threaten a census taker who had come to his house for the nationwide count of every U.S. resident.

Michael Cooper, 32, was arrested Monday after threatening census taker Johnny Swinney, according to a police report.

Neighbors told deputies that Swinney's U.S. Census Bureau badge was clearly identifiable when he approached Cooper sitting on the porch of his home and the census taker identified himself as a federal worker, according to an incident report.

Cooper yelled at Swinney to leave, went into his home and returned with an assault-style weapon. He loaded the chamber and Swinney returned to his vehicle, where his wife was. His wife, Nicole, told deputies that she saw Cooper pointing his weapon at her husband's back as he walked away from the house. Once in the vehicle, they heard a shot fired in an unknown direction, according to the incident report.

Cooper told deputies that Swinney was trespassing and that he didn't see an identification badge. He said he shot a round into the ground because he didn't want to leave it in the chamber.

Cooper is facing a charge of aggravated assault with a deadly weapon without intent to kill. No lawyer was listed for him on an online court docket. Jail records showed Cooper being held on a $7,500 bond at the Flagler County Jail on Tuesday.

In response to an email inquiry, the Census Bureau said it was checking on how many threats have been made against census takers during the 2020 count.

Hundreds of thousands of census takers have been sent to homes that haven't yet responded to the 2020 census either online, by mail or telephone. The head count, which determines how many congressional seats each state gets and how $1.5 trillion in federal funding is distributed annually, is set to end at the end of the month.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/florida-man-arrested-threatening-census-taker-gun-73453743

[Ferguson97]

Florida man arrested for threatening census taker with gun

A Florida man was arrested for using an assault-style weapon to threaten a census taker who had come to his house for the nationwide count of every U.S. resident.

Michael Cooper, 32, was arrested Monday after threatening census taker Johnny Swinney, according to a police report.

Neighbors told deputies that Swinney's U.S. Census Bureau badge was clearly identifiable when he approached Cooper sitting on the porch of his home and the census taker identified himself as a federal worker, according to an incident report.

Cooper yelled at Swinney to leave, went into his home and returned with an assault-style weapon. He loaded the chamber and Swinney returned to his vehicle, where his wife was. His wife, Nicole, told deputies that she saw Cooper pointing his weapon at her husband's back as he walked away from the house. Once in the vehicle, they heard a shot fired in an unknown direction, according to the incident report.

Cooper told deputies that Swinney was trespassing and that he didn't see an identification badge. He said he shot a round into the ground because he didn't want to leave it in the chamber.

Cooper is facing a charge of aggravated assault with a deadly weapon without intent to kill. No lawyer was listed for him on an online court docket. Jail records showed Cooper being held on a $7,500 bond at the Flagler County Jail on Tuesday.

In response to an email inquiry, the Census Bureau said it was checking on how many threats have been made against census takers during the 2020 count.

Hundreds of thousands of census takers have been sent to homes that haven't yet responded to the 2020 census either online, by mail or telephone. The head count, which determines how many congressional seats each state gets and how $1.5 trillion in federal funding is distributed annually, is set to end at the end of the month.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/florida-man-arrested-threatening-census-taker-gun-73453743

How paranoid do you have to be to go grab an assault weapon when someone walks towards your porch?

[jimrtex]

Florida man arrested for threatening census taker with gun

A Florida man was arrested for using an assault-style weapon to threaten a census taker who had come to his house for the nationwide count of every U.S. resident.

Michael Cooper, 32, was arrested Monday after threatening census taker Johnny Swinney, according to a police report.

Neighbors told deputies that Swinney's U.S. Census Bureau badge was clearly identifiable when he approached Cooper sitting on the porch of his home and the census taker identified himself as a federal worker, according to an incident report.

Cooper yelled at Swinney to leave, went into his home and returned with an assault-style weapon. He loaded the chamber and Swinney returned to his vehicle, where his wife was. His wife, Nicole, told deputies that she saw Cooper pointing his weapon at her husband's back as he walked away from the house. Once in the vehicle, they heard a shot fired in an unknown direction, according to the incident report.

Cooper told deputies that Swinney was trespassing and that he didn't see an identification badge. He said he shot a round into the ground because he didn't want to leave it in the chamber.

Cooper is facing a charge of aggravated assault with a deadly weapon without intent to kill. No lawyer was listed for him on an online court docket. Jail records showed Cooper being held on a $7,500 bond at the Flagler County Jail on Tuesday.

In response to an email inquiry, the Census Bureau said it was checking on how many threats have been made against census takers during the 2020 count.

Hundreds of thousands of census takers have been sent to homes that haven't yet responded to the 2020 census either online, by mail or telephone. The head count, which determines how many congressional seats each state gets and how $1.5 trillion in federal funding is distributed annually, is set to end at the end of the month.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/florida-man-arrested-threatening-census-taker-gun-73453743

'Florida Man' is a proper noun.

[jimrtex]

On October 5, 9 more ACO reach 98.0% NRFU, bringing the total to 192 (78.4%). 53 are yet to reach 98%.

It appears that NRFU rate can be brought to 99.0% or just a few 0.1% above, but the approach is not asymptotic. There can be a couple of daily increases around 0.5% going from around 98.0% to 99.0% and then it more or less freezes. It is beginning to look like Manhattan 2 (southern Manhattan) can not get to 98.0%. Perhaps so many people have fled the city that they can't be found. Other ACO's may only be able to barely reach 98.0%, and they slow down before they get there. ACO's that can reach 99%, push right through 98%.

I am treating San Mateo, CA (97.8%) as reaching 98%, based on minimal change (0.1% or less over previous 7 days).

29 states have all ACO above 98% NRFU: CA(30), TX(26), NJ(8), WA(5), IN(4), WI(4), CT(3), MN(3), MO(3), OK(3), OR(3), UT(2), AR(2), KS(2), NV(2), NM(2), AK(1), DE(1), HI(1), ID(1), IA(1), ME(1), NE(1), NH(1), ND(1), RI(1), VT(1), WV(1), and WY(1)

Percentages are for ACO needed to move state out of current category.

11 states have a majority of ACO above 98%

83% VA 5/6 (Fredericksburg 97.9%, to complete state)
80% IL 8/10 (Chicago Central 97.6%)
62% OH 5/8 (Cleveland 97.6%)
60% MI 4/5 (Detroit 97.6%)
83% MA 5/6 (Boston 97.1%)
75% MD 3/4 (Baltimore 97.0%)
67% NY 15/21 (Brooklyn 1 96.7%)
75% CO 3/4 (Colorado South 96.1%)
56% PA 6/9 (Philadelphia - Penn 96.0%)
53% FL 8/15 (Pensacola 93.8%)
67% AZ 4/6 (Window Rock 87.9%)

2 states have half.

50% TN 2/4 (Shelbyville 97.9%, to reach majority)
50% LA 2/4 (Baton Rouge 97.5%)

3 states have some, but less than half.

43% NC 3/7 (Asheville 97.7%, to reach half or more)
38% GA 3/8 (Gainesville or Atlanta 97.3%)
33% SC 1/3 (Charleston 95.3%)

5 states + DC have none.

KY(2) (Lexington 97.9%, to have one ACO at 98%)
MS(2) (Gulfport 97.8%)
DC(1) (Washington 97.8%)
SD(1) (Sioux Falls 96.8%)
MT (1) (Billings 96.8%)
AL(3) (Huntsville 95.9%)

[jimrtex]

These are the 53 ACO's that had not reached 98% NRFU by October 5.The 53 ACO's represent 21.6% of all ACO. 9 ACO's reached 98% on October 5.

Most are projected to finish in the next couple of days.

10-01 ####################### (23)
10-02 ################# (17)
10-03 ################# (17)
10-04 ############## (14)
10-05 ######### (9)
10-06 ######################## (24)
10-07 ############# (13)
10-08 ####### (7)
10-09 #### (4)
10-10 # (1)
10-11 ## (2)
10-12 # (1)
10-13
10-14 # (1)

The 9 ACO that reached 98% on October 5 are shown in blue. San Mateo, CA has been included because it has been stuck on 97.8% for a week.

84.9 (1.60%, 10/14) Shreveport, LA (western and northern Louisiana)

91.8 (1.00%, 10/12) Jackson, MS (western and northern Mississippi)

87.9 (1.76%, 10/11) Window Rock, AZ (Navajo reservation)
90.9 (1.36%, 10/11) Columbus, GA (southern Georgia)

94.3 (0.86%, 10/10) Lakeland, FL (south central peninsula)

94.7 (0.91%, 10/9) Douglasville, GA (western Atlanta suburbs and points west.
93.9 (1.14%, 10/9) Gwinnett County, GA (Gwinnett and points east)
94.6 (0.99%, 10/9) Columbia, SC (Midlands)
93.8 (1.23%, 10/9) Pensacola, FL (Redneck Riviera)

93.9 (1.49%, 10/8) Mobile, AL (southern Alabama)
96.8 (0.49%, 10/8) Bronx 2, NY (southern, western Bronx)
96.1 (0.81%, 10/8) Winston-Salem, NC (northwestern North Carolina)
95.3 (1.19%, 10/8) Charleston, SC (Low Country, South Carolina)
96.8 (0.54%, 10/8) Sioux Falls, SD (South Dakota)
97.0 (0.46%, 10/8) Brooklyn 2, NY (southwest Brooklyn)
96.0 (0.96%, 10/8) Philadelphia-Penn, PA (north Philadelphia)

97.1 (0.54%, 10/7) Boston, MA (Suffolk County)
96.6 (0.86%, 10/7) Memphis, TN (far western Tennessee)
95.9 (1.30%, 10/7) Huntsville, AL (northern Alabama)
96.1 (1.23%, 10/7) Colorado Springs, CO (southern Colorado)
96.7 (0.84%, 10/7) Brooklyn 1, NY (eastern Brooklyn)
96.1 (1.26%, 10/7) Durham, NC (north central,  Greensboro, but not Raleigh or Winston-Salem)
96.4 (1.07%, 10/7) Tampa, FL (Hillsborough County)
96.5 (1.03%, 10/7) Seminole County, FL (Seminole, Volusia, Brevard counties)
96.8 (0.86%, 10/7) Philadelphia-Franklin, PA (south and west Philadelphia)
95.7 (1.69%, 10/7) Birmingham, AL (central Alabama)
97.0 (0.79%, 10/7) Baltimore, MD (Baltimore City)
97.6 (0.26%, 10/7) Manhattan 2, NY (Southern Manhattan)
96.8 (1.04%, 10/7) Billings, MT (Montana)

97.1 (0.90%, 10/6) Louisville, KY (western Kentucky)
97.4 (0.64%, 10/6) Brooklyn 4, NY (southwestern Brooklyn)
97.3 (0.77%, 10/6) Gainesville, GA (northern Georgia)
97.2 (0.90%, 10/6) Jacksonville, FL (Duval, Nassau, Baker counties)
97.4 (0.77%, 10/6) Ocala, FL (north central Peninsula)
97.3 (0.90%, 10/6) Atlanta, GA (Fulton County)
97.6 (0.53%, 10/6) Chicago Central, IL (Central-northish Chicago)
97.4 (0.80%, 10/6) Fayetteville, NC (southeastern North Carolina)
97.7 (0.30%, 10/6) Chicago South, IL (southside Chicago)
97.6 (0.63%, 10/6) Cleveland, OH (Cuyahoga, excluding outer suburbs)
97.7 (0.51%, 10/6) Asheville, NC (western North Carolina)
97.7 (0.53%, 10/6) Toledo, OH (northwestern Ohio)
97.5 (0.94%, 10/6) Baton Rouge, LA (Baton Rouge and areas to east and west)
97.6 (0.77%, 10/6) Detroit, MI (Wayne County)
97.6 (0.83%, 10/6) Tucson, AZ (southern Arizona)
97.6 (0.51%, 10/6) Bronx 1, NY (northern, eastern Bronx)
97.8 (0.64%, 10/6) Washington, DC (District of Columbia)
97.8 (0.69%, 10/6) Gulfport, MS (southern Mississippi)
97.8 (0.79%, 10/6) West Palm Beach, FL (Palm Beach and Martin counties)
97.5 (0.79%, 10/6) Akron, OH (northeastern Ohio)
97.7 (0.59%, 10/6) Lexington, KY (eastern Kentucky)
97.5 (0.67%, 10/6) Allentown, PA (northeastern Pennsylvania)
97.5 (0.69%, 10/6) Shelbyville, TN (central and western Tennessee, except Nashville and Memphis)
97.9 (0.77%, 10/6) Fredericksburg, VA (northern Virginia, excluding Loudoun, Fairfax, Arlington, Alexandria)

97.9 (0.34%, 10/5) Queens 4, NY (Southern Queens)
97.6 (1.10%, 10/5) Maricopa West, AZ (Glendale and westward)
97.8 (0.69%, 10/5) Lansing, MI (southern Michigan)
98.2 (0.67%, 10/5) Stockton, CA (San Joaquin, southern Sacramento, Central Sierras)
97.9 (0.49%, 10/5) Reading, PA (Delaware, Chester, Berks, Schuylkill)
97.8 (1.16%, 10/5) Tulsa, OK (northeast Oklahoma)
97.9 (0.44%, 10/5) Wilmington, DE (Delaware)
97.8 (0.59%, 10/5) Miami South, FL (southern Miami-Dade and Monroe)
97.8 (0.01%, 10/5) San Mateo, CA (San Mateo and southern San Francisco counties)

[cinyc]

The 10/6 total enumeration rate remains at 99.7%. The self-response rate is also steady at 66.7%.

But now 32 states + PR are at 99.9% total enumeration.

[jimrtex]

The 9th Circuit has refused to stay the injunction of the Replan collection deadline of September 30 (October 5), leaving the October 31 date in effect. The appeals court did stay enforcement of the April 2021 deadline for reporting apportionment numbers.

The Census Bureau will likely appeal (their lawyer requested the court to make a ruling quickly).

[jimrtex]

On October 6, 14 more ACO reach 98.0% NRFU, bringing the total to 206 (84.1%). 39 are yet to reach 98%.

It appears that NRFU rate can be brought to 99.0% or just a few 0.1% above, but the approach is not asymptotic. There can be a couple of daily increases around 0.5% going from around 98.0% to 99.0% and then it more or less freezes. It is beginning to look like Manhattan 2 (southern Manhattan) can not get to 98.0%. Perhaps so many people have fled the city that they can't be found. Other ACO's may only be able to barely reach 98.0%, and they slow down before they get there. ACO's that can reach 99%, push right through 98%.

I am treating San Mateo, CA (97.8%) as reaching 98%, based on minimal change (0.1% or less over previous 7 days).

31 states + DC have all ACO above 98% NRFU: CA(30), TX(26), NJ(8), VA(6), MI(5), WA(5), IN(4), WI(4), CT(3), MN(3), MO(3), OK(3), OR(3), UT(2), AR(2), KS(2), NV(2), NM(2), AK(1), DE(1), DC(1), HI(1), ID(1), IA(1), ME(1), NE(1), NH(1), ND(1), RI(1), VT(1), WV(1), and WY(1)

Percentages are for ACO needed to move state out of current category.

11 states have a majority of ACO above 98%

90% IL 9/10 (Chicago Central 97.9% to complete state)
88% OH 7/8 (Cleveland 97.9%)
83% MA 5/6 (Boston 97.3%)
75% MD 3/4 (Baltimore 97.3%)
71% NY 15/21 (Brooklyn 1 97.1%)
75% TN 3/4 (Memphis 97.0%)
75% CO 3/4 (Colorado South 96.7%)
78% PA 7/9 (Philadelphia - Penn 96.5%)
67% FL 10/15 (Pensacola 94.8%)
67% AZ 4/6 (Window Rock 89.1%)
75% LA 3/4 (Shreveport 86.3%)

3 states have half.

50% GA 4/8 (Atlanta 97.9%)
50% KY 1/2 (Louisville 97.6%)
50% MS 1/2 (Jackson 92.6%)

2 states have some, but less than half.

43% NC 3/7 (Asheville 97.9%, to reach half or more)
33% SC 1/3 (Charleston 96.1%)

3 states have none.

MT(1) (Billings 97.4%, to have first ACO to 98%)
SD(1) (Sioux Falls 97.2%)
AL(3) (Huntsville 95.9%)

[Tender Branson]

The appeals court did stay enforcement of the April 2021 deadline for reporting apportionment numbers.

What does it mean ?

Is the CB now mandated again to produce the numbers by December 31 ?

Or does it only mean that April 30 is not a fixed deadline, meaning they can release the results whenever they are ready ?

[jimrtex]

These are the 39 ACO's that had not reached 98% NRFU by October 6. The 39 ACO's represent 15.9% of all ACO. 14 ACO's reached 98% on October 6.

Most are projected to finish in the next couple of days.

10-01 ####################### (23)
10-02 ################# (17)
10-03 ################# (17)
10-04 ############## (14)
10-05 ######### (9)
10-06 ############## (14)
10-07 ################# (17)
10-08 ############# (13)
10-09 #### (4)
10-10 # (1)
10-11 # (1)
10-12 # (2)
10-13
10-14 # (1)

For each ACO, the current NRFU completion percentage, the average daily completion rate for the previous seven days, and projected date to reach 98%.

The 14 ACO that reached 98% on October 6 are shown in blue.

86.3 (1.57%, 10/14) Shreveport, LA (western and northern Louisiana)


92.6 (0.93%, 10/12) Jackson, MS (western and northern Mississippi)
89.1 (1.64%, 10/12) Window Rock, AZ (Navajo reservation)

92.3 (1.33%, 10/11) Columbus, GA (southern Georgia)

95.1 (0.86%, 10/10) Lakeland, FL (south central peninsula)

94.9 (1.09%, 10/9) Gwinnett County, GA (Gwinnett and points east)
94.8 (1.19%, 10/9) Pensacola, FL (Redneck Riviera)
95.7 (1.00%, 10/9) Columbia, SC (Midlands)
97.2 (0.37%, 10/9) Brooklyn 2, NY (southwest Brooklyn)

96.1 (1.11%, 10/8) Charleston, SC (Low Country, South Carolina)
97.2 (0.47%, 10/8) Bronx 2, NY (southern, western Bronx)
96.5 (0.89%, 10/8) Philadelphia-Penn, PA (north Philadelphia)
96.7 (0.77%, 10/8) Winston-Salem, NC (northwestern North Carolina)
95.2 (1.67%, 10/8) Mobile, AL (southern Alabama)
96.0 (1.26%, 10/8) Douglasville, GA (western Atlanta suburbs and points west.
97.2 (0.51%, 10/8) Sioux Falls, SD (South Dakota)
97.3 (0.47%, 10/8) Boston, MA (Suffolk County)
97.0 (0.81%, 10/8) Memphis, TN (far western Tennessee)
97.1 (0.74%, 10/8) Brooklyn 1, NY (eastern Brooklyn)
96.7 (1.09%, 10/8) Colorado Springs, CO (southern Colorado)
96.7 (1.23%, 10/8) Huntsville, AL (northern Alabama)
97.2 (0.77%, 10/8) Philadelphia-Franklin, PA (south and west Philadelphia)

97.3 (0.71%, 10/7) Baltimore, MD (Baltimore City)
97.5 (0.51%, 10/7) Brooklyn 4, NY (southwestern Brooklyn)
97.8 (0.21%, 10/7) Manhattan 2, NY (Southern Manhattan)
97.0 (1.20%, 10/7) Durham, NC (north central,  Greensboro, but not Raleigh or Winston-Salem)
96.7 (1.59%, 10/7) Birmingham, AL (central Alabama)
97.2 (1.04%, 10/7) Tampa, FL (Hillsborough County)
97.3 (0.99%, 10/7) Seminole County, FL (Seminole, Volusia, Brevard counties)
97.4 (0.94%, 10/7) Billings, MT (Montana)
97.6 (0.80%, 10/7) Louisville, KY (western Kentucky)
97.7 (0.81%, 10/7) Jacksonville, FL (Duval, Nassau, Baker counties)
97.8 (0.74%, 10/7) Fayetteville, NC (southeastern North Carolina)
97.9 (0.40%, 10/7) Bronx 1, NY (northern, eastern Bronx)
97.9 (0.46%, 10/7) Asheville, NC (western North Carolina)
97.9 (0.47%, 10/7) Chicago Central, IL (Central-northish Chicago)
97.9 (0.54%, 10/7) Cleveland, OH (Cuyahoga, excluding outer suburbs)
97.9 (0.73%, 10/7) Tucson, AZ (southern Arizona)
97.9 (0.84%, 10/7) Atlanta, GA (Fulton County)

98.0 (0.27%, 10/6) Chicago South, IL (southside Chicago)
98.0 (0.46%, 10/6) Toledo, OH (northwestern Ohio)
98.0 (0.56%, 10/6) Washington, DC (District of Columbia)
98.0 (0.69%, 10/6) Detroit, MI (Wayne County)
98.0 (0.74%, 10/6) Ocala, FL (north central Peninsula)
98.0 (0.76%, 10/6) Gainesville, GA (northern Georgia)
98.1 (0.84%, 10/6) Baton Rouge, LA (Baton Rouge and areas to east and west)
98.1 (0.47%, 10/6) Lexington, KY (eastern Kentucky)
98.2 (0.69%, 10/6) Fredericksburg, VA (northern Virginia, excluding Loudoun, Fairfax, Arlington, Alexandria)
98.2 (0.61%, 10/6) Gulfport, MS (southern Mississippi)
98.3 (0.70%, 10/6) Akron, OH (northeastern Ohio)
98.3 (0.69%, 10/6) West Palm Beach, FL (Palm Beach and Martin counties)
98.3 (0.63%, 10/6) Shelbyville, TN (central and western Tennessee, except Nashville and Memphis)
98.3 (0.61%, 10/6) Allentown, PA (northeastern Pennsylvania)

[cinyc]

The total enumeration rate ticked up yesterday to 99.8%. The self-response rate remained at 66.7%.

34 states + Puerto Rico are at 99.9% total enumeration. 3 more states + DC are at 99.8%. The worst state, Louisiana, is at 98.1%. Only Mississippi is also below 99% - at 98.8%.

[jimrtex]

The appeals court did stay enforcement of the April 2021 deadline for reporting apportionment numbers.

What does it mean ?

Is the CB now mandated again to produce the numbers by December 31 ?

Or does it only mean that April 30 is not a fixed deadline, meaning they can release the results whenever they are ready ?

Unknown.

A temporary restraining order is issued when one of the (litigating) parties is likely to prevail, but would be irreparably harmed if the action by the other party continued.

In this case, the district court ruled that if the Census Bureau shut down data collection on September 30 and laid off all the enumerators, it would be impossible to restart.

The district court has ruled on the basis of the Administrative Procedures Act, which requires federal agencies to act with due process. It ruled that the COVID-19 plan was just the refinement of the decade-long plan adopted in December 2018, and the REPLAN was a slapdash arbitrary action by the Census Bureau. The Census Bureau argues that the COVID-19 plan could not be a final agency action since it was premised on congressional action that did not happen.

The plaintiffs also claim that the REPLAN violates the enumeration clause of the US Constitution. But the Census Bureau argue that the courts should defer to Congress and the executive. The district court did not rule on this claim, since courts are supposed to rule on statutory matters, and avoid constitutional claims if they can. But they could pursue this in ongoing litigation.

The basis of intervention by the states of Louisiana and Mississippi is that under the Replan, resources would have been allocated to lagging areas such as Louisiana and Mississippi. Adhering to the COVID-19 plan would mean that enumerators would be forced to stay in their home areas getting the very last household to respond. In addition the delayed release of apportionment and redistricting numbers would cause large scale cost in terms of special sessions, etc.

The plaintiffs are opposed to intervention, arguing that Louisiana and Mississippi are practically completed now, and they waited too long.

Meanwhile, the district court continues to receive e-mails from enumerators that the Census Bureau is violating the court orders.

One complained that they weren't getting any assignments and that was because the Census Bureau wanted them to quit so they couldn't file for unemployment.

One from Portland said that the ACO was laying off all but 46 enumerators, and that he had been traveling all over the Eugene ACO (this covers the west from Eugene south and all of the east, and he had been to The Dalles, past Bend, down by Medford and over on the coast. His itinerary suggested that he had been doing this a couple of weeks. But Eugene ACO has caught up with Portland. The Replan had worked!

He also said there had been notices of $500 bonuses for enumerators willing to travel to AL, LA, SC, AZ, MT, GA, and MS.

But that may not be necessary now that the court has ordered the Census Bureau not to make heroic efforts to finish data collection by September 30.

There was a district court hearing yesterday, and will be another on the 17th, but these are only procedural.

[jimrtex]

On October 7, 10 more ACO reach 98.0% NRFU, bringing the total to 216 (88.2%). 29 are yet to reach 98%.

34 states + DC have all ACO above 98% NRFU: CA(30), TX(26), IL(10), NJ(8), OH(8), VA(6), MI(5), WA(5), IN(4), WI(4), CT(3), MN(3), MO(3), OK(3), OR(3), UT(2), AR(2), KS(2), NV(2), NM(2), AK(1), DE(1), DC(1), HI(1), ID(1), IA(1), ME(1), MT(1), NE(1), NH(1), ND(1), RI(1), VT(1), WV(1), and WY(1)

The 29 ACO are in 16 states. States are ranked according to their lowest ranked ACO. This will be the approximate order of states getting all ACO to 98%.

KY (1)  (Louisville 97.9%)
MD (1) (Baltimore 97.6%)
MA (1) (Boston 97.5%)
SD (1) (Sioux Falls 97.5%)
NY (4) (Brooklyn 4 97.8%; Brooklyn 1 97.6%; Bronx 2 97.5%; Brooklyn 2 97.4%)
TN (1) (Memphis 97.4%)
NC (2) (Durham 97.9%; Winston-Salem 97.3%)
CO (1) (Colorado Springs 97.2%)
PA (2) (Philadelphia - Franklin 97.4%; Philadelphia - Penn 97.0%)
SC (2) (Charleston 96.8%; Columbia 96.7%)
AL (3) (Birmingham 97.6%; Huntsville 97.5%; Mobile 96.2%)
FL (4) (Seminole County 97.9%; Tampa 97.7%; Lakeland 96.0%; Pensacola 95.7%)
GA (3) (Douglasville 96.9%, Gwinnett County 96.1%; Columbus 93.7%)
MS (1) (Jackson 93.5%)
AZ (1) (Window Rock 90.3%)
LA (1) (Shreveport 87.5%)

By Census (Geographic) Region:

Midwest 1/43  2.3% of ACO below 98%
West 2/59  3.4%
Northeast 7/51  13.7%
South 19/92  20.7%

[jimrtex]

These are the 29 ACO's that had not reached 98% NRFU by October 7. The 29 ACO's represent 11.8% of all ACO. 10 ACO's reached 98% on October 7.

Most are projected to finish in the next couple of days.

10-01 ####################### (23)
10-02 ################# (17)
10-03 ################# (17)
10-04 ############## (14)
10-05 ######### (9)
10-06 ############## (14)
10-07 ########## (10)
10-08 ############# (13)
10-09 ########## (10)
10-10 ## (2)
10-11 # (1)
10-12 # (1)
10-13 # (1)
10-14 # (1)

For each ACO, the current NRFU completion percentage, the average daily completion rate for the previous seven days, and projected date to reach 98%.

The 10 ACO that reached 98% on October 7 are shown in blue.

87.5 (1.51%, 10/14) Shreveport, LA (western and northern Louisiana)

90.3 (1.53%, 10/13) Window Rock, AZ (Navajo reservation)

93.5 (0.91%, 10/12) Jackson, MS (western and northern Mississippi)

93.7 (1.30%, 10/11) Columbus, GA (southern Georgia)

96.0 (0.84%, 10/10) Lakeland, FL (south central peninsula)
95.7 (1.10%, 10/10) Pensacola, FL (Redneck Riviera)

97.4 (0.30%, 10/9) Brooklyn 2, NY (southwest Brooklyn)
96.1 (1.11%, 10/9) Gwinnett County, GA (Gwinnett and points east)
96.7 (0.99%, 10/9) Columbia, SC (Midlands)
97.5 (0.39%, 10/9) Boston, MA (Suffolk County)
97.0 (0.79%, 10/9) Philadelphia-Penn, PA (north Philadelphia)
96.8 (0.99%, 10/9) Charleston, SC (Low Country, South Carolina)
97.5 (0.43%, 10/9) Bronx 2, NY (southern, western Bronx)
96.2 (1.56%, 10/9) Mobile, AL (southern Alabama)
97.5 (0.46%, 10/9) Sioux Falls, SD (South Dakota)
97.4 (0.59%, 10/9) Philadelphia-Franklin, PA (south and west Philadelphia)

97.3 (0.70%, 10/8) Winston-Salem, NC (northwestern North Carolina)
97.4 (0.63%, 10/8) Memphis, TN (far western Tennessee)
96.9 (1.17%, 10/8) Douglasville, GA (western Atlanta suburbs and points west.
97.2 (0.97%, 10/8) Colorado Springs, CO (southern Colorado)
97.6 (0.60%, 10/8) Baltimore, MD (Baltimore City)
97.6 (0.66%, 10/8) Brooklyn 1, NY (eastern Brooklyn)
97.8 (0.43%, 10/8) Brooklyn 4, NY (southwestern Brooklyn)
97.5 (1.13%, 10/8) Huntsville, AL (northern Alabama)
97.7 (0.91%, 10/8) Tampa, FL (Hillsborough County)
97.6 (1.47%, 10/8) Birmingham, AL (central Alabama)
97.9 (0.69%, 10/8) Louisville, KY (western Kentucky)
97.9 (0.89%, 10/8) Seminole County, FL (Seminole, Volusia, Brevard counties)
97.9 (1.09%, 10/8) Durham, NC (north central,  Greensboro, but not Raleigh or Winston-Salem)

98.0 (0.16%, 10/7) Manhattan 2, NY (Southern Manhattan)
98.0 (0.69%, 10/7) Fayetteville, NC (southeastern North Carolina)
98.1 (0.89%, 10/7) Billings, MT (Montana)
98.1 (0.60%, 10/7) Tucson, AZ (southern Arizona)
98.1 (0.44%, 10/7) Cleveland, OH (Cuyahoga, excluding outer suburbs)
98.1 (0.39%, 10/7) Asheville, NC (western North Carolina)
98.2 (0.71%, 10/7) Jacksonville, FL (Duval, Nassau, Baker counties)
98.1 (0.33%, 10/7) Bronx 1, NY (northern, eastern Bronx)
98.3 (0.71%, 10/7) Atlanta, GA (Fulton County)
98.2 (0.40%, 10/7) Chicago Central, IL (Central-northish Chicago)

[Tender Branson]

36 states are now 99.9% enumerated.

Among the 14 below, 5 are at 99.8% and 3 at 99.7%

LA is last at 98.2% and only increased 0.1% since yesterday and they have another major storm coming.

[cinyc]

The total enumeraton rate remains at 99.8%. Self-response ticked up to 66.8%.

36 states + Puerto Rico and DC are now at 99.9%. 5 more states are at 99.8%.

[Skill and Chance]

The total enumeraton rate remains at 99.8%. Self-response ticked up to 66.8%.

36 states + Puerto Rico and DC are now at 99.9%. 5 more states are at 99.8%.

This sounds to me like things turned out much better than feared?

[jimrtex]

The total enumeraton rate remains at 99.8%. Self-response ticked up to 66.8%.

36 states + Puerto Rico and DC are now at 99.9%. 5 more states are at 99.8%.

State	Complete
Arizona	99.8
Colorado	99.8
Delaware	99.8
Kentucky	99.8
New Mexico	99.8
Florida	99.7
Montana	99.7
North Carolina	99.7
Alabama	99.5
Georgia	99.5
South Carolina	99.4
South Dakota	99.4
Mississippi	99.0
Louisiana	98.2

[jimrtex]

The total enumeraton rate remains at 99.8%. Self-response ticked up to 66.8%.

36 states + Puerto Rico and DC are now at 99.9%. 5 more states are at 99.8%.

This sounds to me like things turned out much better than feared?

It is hard to say. The quality may be lower. You can get 99.8% nationwide, with 100% in 98% of the country and 90% in the other 2% And someone's recollection from October, may be different from actuality in April, particularly if the person doing the recollection is a neighbor. Was that man just a boyfriend who slept over a lot, or had he become a fiance? What was the custody status of that little boy, did he alternate weeks between parents, or did he have weekends with dad and his new wife?

The homeless count substituted September for April. In the summer you may have more people on the road or living outdoors.

The 66.8% self-response is pretty remarkable. The Census Bureau had estimated 60% - or at least that is what was used for their NRFU capacity planning. Anybody who doesn't self-respond has to caught in NRFU. The difference between 45 million and 60 million housing units is considerable.

Also the true self-response rate is probably pushing 80%. The denominator for the self response rate is housing units (150M) for the Census. But there are an estimated 129 million households (households may include both single-person households and non-family households, and mixtures. There are not 150 million housing units. Some have been destroyed, but the Census Bureau requires a field check. Others may not be habitable, or practicably habitable - in a rural or small town, there will be houses that no one will rent. They can rent a better home at an affordable rent. Demand is low relative to the available supply. There will be true vacancies, due to move-ins and moves outs for apartments and to a lesser extent single-family homes.

But 66.8% of 150 million housing units have responded, which is just over 100M households, or or 77.7% of the estimated 129 million households.

Of the 50 million non-responding housing units, 20 million will be vacant or even non-existent.

As far as NRFU, it is going about as well as expected. They had field testing to know what it took to complete NRFU - though this was based on being able to hire more enumerators (many are older and retired but willing to work part-time for a month or two, particularly when they could choose the hours). It also assumed that the enumerator and householder would sit on a porch swing while drinking lemonade and filling in the form.

It is quite off-putting when you answer your door there is a census taker with a six-foot distancing stick, and when you advance forward, she announces, "Red Alert! COVID-19 Danger! Please Stand Back! Red Alert!"

Incidentally, about 20 million of the Internet self-responses were non-ID. When they mailed out invitations they included a unique ID. This would tie the response to a particular mailing address. But you could also respond without an ID, and describe where you lived or give an address. This could be used by those who never received an invitation (euphemism for lost underneath the stack of pizza boxes) or perhaps answered months later.

When NRFU started there was an uptick in self-responses - perhaps prompted by an enumerator leaving materials at the door where there is no answer. This has been slowly declining over the past few weeks - with a sharp downturn this week. The Census Bureau is under injunction to accept self-responses through the end of this month.

[jimrtex]

On October 8, 7 more ACO reach 98.0% NRFU, while one slipped below bringing the total to 222 (90.6%). 23 are yet to reach 98%.

35 states + DC have all ACO above 98% NRFU: CA(30), TX(26), IL(10), NJ(8), OH(8), VA(6), MI(5), WA(5), IN(4), WI(4), CT(3), MN(3), MO(3), OK(3), OR(3), UT(2), AR(2), KS(2), KY(2), NV(2), NM(2), AK(1), DE(1), DC(1), HI(1), ID(1), IA(1), ME(1), MT(1), NE(1), NH(1), ND(1), RI(1), VT(1), WV(1), and WY(1)

The 23 ACO are in 15 states. States are ranked according to their lowest ranked ACO. This will be the approximate order of states getting all ACO to 98%.

SD (1) (Sioux Falls 97.9%)
MA (1) (Boston 97.8%)
TN (1) (Memphis 97.8%)
NC (1) (Winston-Salem 97.8%)
CO (1) (Colorado Springs 97.7%)
NY (4) (Brooklyn 1 97.9%; Bronx 2 97.9%; Brooklyn 2 97.7%; *Manhattan 2 97.6%)
PA (2) (Philadelphia - Franklin 97.7%; Philadelphia - Penn 97.4%)
MD (1) (Baltimore 97.3%)
SC (2) (Charleston 97.5%; Columbia 97.3%)
AL (1) (Mobile 97.1%)
FL (2) (Lakeland 96.7%; Pensacola 96.5%)
GA (3) (Douglasville 97.6%, Gwinnett County 97.1%; Columbus 95.0%)
MS (1) (Jackson 94.2%)
AZ (1) (Window Rock 91.5%)
LA (1) (Shreveport 87.9%)

*Manhattan 2 had reached 98.0%.

By Census (Geographic) Region:

Midwest 1/43  2.3% of ACO below 98%
West 2/59  3.4%
Northeast 7/51  13.7%
South 13/92  14.1%

[jimrtex]

These are the 22 ACO's that had not reached 98% NRFU by October 8. The 22 ACO's represent 9.0% of all ACO. 7 ACO's reached 98% on October 8.

Two ACO's are excluded: San Mateo, CA has reached 97.8% and stuck there. Manhattan 2 reached 98.0% and then dropped to 97.6%.

Most are projected to finish in the next couple of days.

10-01 ####################### (23)
10-02 ################# (17)
10-03 ################# (17)
10-04 ############## (14)
10-05 ######### (9)
10-06 ############## (14)
10-07 ########## (10)
10-08 ####### (7)
10-09 ############## (14)
10-10 #### (4)
10-11 # (1)
10-12 #
10-13 ## (2)
10-14
10-15
10-16 # (1)

Shreveport, LA had a very weak day, likely with operations being closed down in anticipation of Hurricane Delta. Jackson, MS and Memphis, TN may see impacts.

For each ACO, the current NRFU completion percentage, the average daily completion rate for the previous seven days, and projected date to reach 98%.

The 10 ACO that reached 98% on October 7 are shown in blue.

87.9 (1.33%, 10/16) Shreveport, LA (western and northern Louisiana)

10/15

10/14

91.5 (1.43%, 10/13) Window Rock, AZ (Navajo reservation)
94.2 (0.86%, 10/13) Jackson, MS (western and northern Mississippi)

10/12

95.0 (1.31%, 10/11) Columbus, GA (southern Georgia)

97.3 (0.43%, 10/10) Baltimore, MD (Baltimore City)
96.7 (0.81%, 10/10) Lakeland, FL (south central peninsula)
96.5 (1.01%, 10/10) Pensacola, FL (Redneck Riviera)
97.7 (0.26%, 10/10) Brooklyn 2, NY (southwest Brooklyn)

97.4 (0.69%, 10/9) Philadelphia-Penn, PA (north Philadelphia)
97.1 (1.07%, 10/9) Gwinnett County, GA (Gwinnett and points east)
97.3 (1.01%, 10/9) Columbia, SC (Midlands)
97.7 (0.47%, 10/9) Philadelphia-Franklin, PA (south and west Philadelphia)
97.1 (1.44%, 10/9) Mobile, AL (southern Alabama)
97.8 (0.34%, 10/9) Boston, MA (Suffolk County)
97.5 (0.90%, 10/9) Charleston, SC (Low Country, South Carolina)
97.6 (1.04%, 10/9) Douglasville, GA (western Atlanta suburbs and points west.
97.8 (0.54%, 10/9) Memphis, TN (far western Tennessee)
97.7 (0.86%, 10/9) Colorado Springs, CO (southern Colorado)
97.8 (0.64%, 10/9) Winston-Salem, NC (northwestern North Carolina)
97.9 (0.39%, 10/9) Bronx 2, NY (southern, western Bronx)
97.9 (0.41%, 10/9) Sioux Falls, SD (South Dakota)
97.9 (0.56%, 10/9) Brooklyn 1, NY (eastern Brooklyn)

98.0 (0.34%, 10/8) Brooklyn 4, NY (southwestern Brooklyn)
98.3 (1.34%, 10/8) Birmingham, AL (central Alabama)
98.3 (1.09%, 10/8) Huntsville, AL (northern Alabama)
98.3 (0.80%, 10/8) Tampa, FL (Hillsborough County)
98.3 (0.60%, 10/8) Louisville, KY (western Kentucky)
98.5 (0.99%, 10/8) Durham, NC (north central,  Greensboro, but not Raleigh or Winston-Salem)
98.5 (0.79%, 10/8) Seminole County, FL (Seminole, Volusia, Brevard counties)

[cinyc]

99.9% total enumeration as of today’s report. Self-response remains at 66.8%.

37 states + DC and PR are at 99.9%.

[Tender Branson]

99.9% total enumeration as of today’s report. Self-response remains at 66.8%.

37 states + DC and PR are at 99.9%.

By next weekend, every ACO except the Louisiana one (storm) should be 100% done.

On the other hand, it seems they are still counting the homeless - which is quite difficult and they do not show up in those 99.9% percentages ...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/census-homeless-count/2020/10/08/88034f6e-081c-11eb-9be6-cf25fb429f1a_story.html

[jimrtex]

The Census Bureau appears to have changed their reporting of NRFU%. For example, San Mateo, CA which had been stuck at 97.8% for over a week, suddenly jumped to 98.5%. This also resulted in a large number of ACO surging past 98%.

It is possible that they are only counting housing units completed divided by non-respondent housing units. This would exclude cases in the NRFU workload such as re-interviews for quality assurance. Assuming that most reinterviews don't result in any change, they don't actually reflect completeness of the census, but only tasks to be completed.

There was an affidavit from a census coordinator for an Indian tribe in Arizona, that said self-response was 14% but NRFU% was 87%. She calculated a total completion rate of 101%, and in call to a census official was told that the two numbers should "add up". After further discussion, the census official explained the difference. She then questioned why the number of enumerators on the reservation was being reduced from 33 to 13, and was given the number of unresolved cases.

On October 9, 17 more ACO reach 98.0% NRFU, while one slipped below bringing the total to 239 (97.6%). 6 are yet to reach 98%.

45 states + DC have all ACO above 98% NRFU: CA(30), TX(26), NY(21), IL(10), PA(9), NJ(8), OH(8), MA(6), VA(6), MI(5), WA(5), CO(4), IN(4), MD(4), TN(4), WI(4), AL(3), CT(3), MN(3), MO(3), NC(3), OK(3), OR(3), SC(3), UT(2), AR(2), KS(2), KY(2), NV(2), NM(2), AK(1), DE(1), DC(1), HI(1), ID(1), IA(1), ME(1), MT(1), NE(1), NH(1), ND(1), RI(1), SD(1), VT(1), WV(1), and WY(1)

The 6 ACO are in 5 states. States are ranked according to their lowest ranked ACO. This will be the approximate order of states getting all ACO to 98%.

FL (2) (Lakeland 97.7%; Pensacola 97.5%)
GA (1) (Columbus 96.3%)
MS (1) (Jackson 95.1%)
AZ (1) (Window Rock 92.8%)
LA (1) (Shreveport 88.1%)

By Census Geographic Region

Northeast 0/51
Midwest 0/43
West 1/59  1.7%
South 5/92  5.4%