The Official 2020 Census Thread

[Tender Branson]

91% counted.

Some states in the lower tier had pretty good daily enumeration rates in the range of 0.8 to 1.2% per day.

If they keep it up, even most Sunbelt states will end up at 99%+ on September 30th ...

[jimrtex]

This map illustrates the net change for the four-week period August 2 to August 30.

Most states increased or held steady. Only 8 states had fewer self responses. These were generally early NRFU states, where most persons have either responded or been enumerated by now.

The national average was 1.99% (the median was 1.82%, and the mode 1.7%. Higher rates in CA, TX, NY pull the mean above the median and the mode.

3.5% AK
3.4%
3.3%
3.2%
3.1%
3.0% CA
2.9%
2.8%
2.7% NM WA
2.6% OR
2.5% HI
2.4% CT MD TX NY
2.3% MA
2.2% RI VT
2.1% CO DC NV NH NJ UT
2.0% ME
1.9% IL KS TN WY
1.8% DE IN OK VA
1.7% AZ AR FL MN OH PA WA
1.6% MT NE NC SC
1.5% GA MO ND
1.4% SD
1.3% ID
1.2% AL KY LA MI
1.1% MS
1.0% WV
0.9% IA

The top states were AK (3.5%), CA (3.0%), NM (2.7%), WA (2.7%), and OR(2.6%).

The laggards are AL, KY, LA, MI (1.2%), MS (1.1%), WV (1.0%), and IA (9%). KY, MI, and IA has high initial self-responses drying up the pool of potential self responders. AL, LA, MS, and WV have higher poverty rates, and generally less Internet access and use. Policies promoting Internet responses may have reduced responses in these areas.

[jimrtex]

This map illustrates the net change for the four-week period (29 days) August 9 to September 7.

Most states increased or held steady. Only 8 states had fewer self responses. These were generally early NRFU states, where most persons have either responded or been enumerated by now.

The national average was 2.16% (the median was 1.95%, and the mode 1.8%. The distribution may be a wee bit more symmetric.

3.3% AK
3.2% CA
3.1%
3.0%
2.9% NM
2.8% NY
2.7% RI TX
2.6% NV NH
2.5% NJ OR VT
2.4% MA UT
2.3% CT DE WA
2.2% CO DC MD TN WY
2.1% AZ
2.0% NC VA
1.9% FL HI NE OH PA SC
1.8% AR GA IL IN ME MN MT OK
1.7% KS SD WI
1.6% MO
1.5% ND
1.4% MI
1.3% AL KY
1.2% IA LA MS
1.1%
1.0% ID
0.9% IA

The top states were AK (3.3%), CA (3.2%), NM (2.9%), NY (2.8%), RI and TX (2.4%)

The laggards are IA, LA. and MS (1.2%), ID (1.0%), and IA (0.9%). Idaho went from first to second-from-last in four weeks.

[jimrtex]

ACO's that need to average 2.0% or more daily to reach 100% of the NRFU workload by September 30. Report day September 13, data day September 12. 64.0% or less:

45.5% Shreveport, LA (western and northern Louisiana)
46.9% Columbus, GA (southern Georgia)
49.3% Window Rock, AZ (Navajo reservation)
52.4% Jackson, MS (western and northern Mississippi)
54.6% Birmingham, MS (central Alabama)
56.3% Macon, GA (central Georgia, south-central from Atlanta perspective)
58.2% Gwinnet County, GA (Gwinnet and points east)
59.7% Philadelphia-Penn, PA (north Philadelphia)
60.5% Maricopa West, AZ (Glendale and westward)
60.9% Colorado Springs, CO (southern Colorado)
60.9% Egg Harbor, NJ (far southern New Jersey)
61.7% Charleston, SC (Low Country, South Carolina)
61.9% Pensacola, FL (Redneck Riviera)
62.6% Mobile, AL (southern Alabama)
62.6% Durham, NC (includes Greensboro, but not Raleigh or Winston-Salem)
62.6% Brooklyn 1, NY (eastern Brooklyn)
62.7% Maricopa Central, AZ (Phoenix, Scottsdale, not Mesa)
63.0% Baton Rouge, LA (Baton Rouge and areas to east and west)
63.3% Tucson, AZ (southern Arizona)
63.4% Atlanta, GA (Fulton County)
63.8% Douglasville, GA (western Atlanta suburbs and points west.
64.0% Fort Bend County, TX (southern Houston suburbs, and down to Victoria)
64.0% Greenville, NC (eastern North Carolina)

[Tender Branson]

92% of the US is now enumerated.

The good news is that in the fire-plagued West (WA, OR, CA) more than 96% are already in.

LA, MS, SC and AL are now the states that will end up below 99%.

GA, AZ, NC, NM, MT all had reasonable increases the past days to reach 100%.

[cinyc]

92% of the US is now enumerated.

The good news is that in the fire-plagued West (WA, OR, CA) more than 96% are already in.

LA, MS, SC and AL are now the states that will end up below 99%.

GA, AZ, NC, NM, MT all had reasonable increases the past days to reach 100%.

91.8% to be exact.

Look out ID. WV is only 0.1 point behind in total enumeration right now. It could pass it later this week.

[jimrtex]

ACO's that need to average 2.0% or more daily to reach 100% of the NRFU workload by September 30. Report day September 14, data day September 13. 66.0% or less:

46.8% Shreveport, LA (western and northern Louisiana)
49.1% Columbus, GA (southern Georgia)
50.5% Window Rock, AZ (Navajo reservation)
54.6% Jackson, MS (western and northern Mississippi)
55.9% Birmingham, MS (central Alabama)
59.1% Macon, GA (central Georgia, south-central from Atlanta perspective)
59.7% Gwinnet County, GA (Gwinnet and points east)
61.7% Philadelphia-Penn, PA (north Philadelphia)
62.2% Maricopa West, AZ (Glendale and westward)
62.7% Colorado Springs, CO (southern Colorado)
63.2% Charleston, SC (Low Country, South Carolina)
63.3% Egg Harbor, NJ (far southern New Jersey)
63.5% Pensacola, FL (Redneck Riviera)
64.0% Durham, NC (north central, includes Greensboro, but not Raleigh or Winston-Salem)
64.3% Mobile, AL (southern Alabama)
64.7% Brooklyn 1, NY (eastern Brooklyn)
64.8% Baton Rouge, LA (Baton Rouge and areas to east and west)
64.9% Atlanta, GA (Fulton County)
65.3% Douglasville, GA (western Atlanta suburbs and points west.
65.3% Greenville, NC (eastern North Carolina)
65.4% Maricopa Central, AZ (Phoenix, Scottsdale, not Mesa)
65.7% Huntsville, AL (northern Alabama)
65.9% Tucson, AZ (southern Arizona)
65.9% Fort Bend County, TX (southern Houston suburbs, and down to Victoria)

Huntsville is new to the list. Only 6 of the 24 ACO on the list had an increase of 2.0% or more (i.e. they are falling behind even more).

[Tender Branson]

ACO's that need to average 2.0% or more daily to reach 100% of the NRFU workload by September 30. Report day September 14, data day September 13. 66.0% or less:

46.8% Shreveport, LA (western and northern Louisiana)
49.1% Columbus, GA (southern Georgia)
50.5% Window Rock, AZ (Navajo reservation)
54.6% Jackson, MS (western and northern Mississippi)
55.9% Birmingham, MS (central Alabama)
59.1% Macon, GA (central Georgia, south-central from Atlanta perspective)
59.7% Gwinnet County, GA (Gwinnet and points east)
61.7% Philadelphia-Penn, PA (north Philadelphia)
62.2% Maricopa West, AZ (Glendale and westward)
62.7% Colorado Springs, CO (southern Colorado)
63.2% Charleston, SC (Low Country, South Carolina)
63.3% Egg Harbor, NJ (far southern New Jersey)
63.5% Pensacola, FL (Redneck Riviera)
64.0% Durham, NC (north central, includes Greensboro, but not Raleigh or Winston-Salem)
64.3% Mobile, AL (southern Alabama)
64.7% Brooklyn 1, NY (eastern Brooklyn)
64.8% Baton Rouge, LA (Baton Rouge and areas to east and west)
64.9% Atlanta, GA (Fulton County)
65.3% Douglasville, GA (western Atlanta suburbs and points west.
65.3% Greenville, NC (eastern North Carolina)
65.4% Maricopa Central, AZ (Phoenix, Scottsdale, not Mesa)
65.7% Huntsville, AL (northern Alabama)
65.9% Tucson, AZ (southern Arizona)
65.9% Fort Bend County, TX (southern Houston suburbs, and down to Victoria)

Huntsville is new to the list. Only 6 of the 24 ACO on the list had an increase of 2.0% or more (i.e. they are falling behind even more).

That's not good to read.

Those areas have a lot of minorities and it would be good if the CA Judge extends data collection into October.

There's a hearing coming up this week I guess.

But I also guess there's a big rush towards the end in those ACOs, with more ground being made up.

[jimrtex]

Thirty-five-day averages (8/10/2010 to 9/14/2010)

Total 2.50 (0.071% per day)
Internet 2.04% (0.058% per day)
Paper+Phone 0.46% (0.013% per day)

Twenty-eight-day averages (8/17/2010 to 9/14/2010)

Total 2.01 (0.072% per day)
Internet 1.62% (0.058% per day)
Paper+Phone 0.38% (0.014% per day)

At this rate, the USA would reach its 2010 response rate of 66.5% on September 23. This is a slippage of two days over the weekend, but it would take a massive slowdown to not reach 65.5% by the end of the month. The current estimate is that it will take 9.76 days, and there are 17 days available.

Two states reached their 2010 response rate in June: MI(15) and WA(30)
Two states reached their 2010 response rate in July:  NV(20) and KY(27)
Eight states reached their 2010 response rate in August: ID(1), CO(17), OR(21), UT(22), VA(24), NH(25), AZ (29) and OH (31).
Eight states have reached their 2010 response rate in September: MD(3), MN(3), NJ(7), CT(8), ME(8), IN(11), CA(14), NE(14)

California and Nebraska reached their 2010 response rates on September 14, becoming the 19th and 20th states to do so.

Alabama is projected to reach its 2010 response rate on September 16 (gap is 0.1%)
Illinois is projected to reach its 2010 response rate on September 17 (gap is 0.2%).
Delaware is projected to reach its 2010 response rate on September 18 (gap is 0.4%)
Florida is projected to reach its 2010 response rate on September 19 (gap is 0.4%)
Massachusetts is projected to reach its 2010 response rate on September 20 (gap is 0.5%)
Vermont is projected to reach its 2010 response rate on September 21.
South Dakota is projected to reach its 2020 response rate on September 25.

No states are projected to reach their 2010 response rate in the remainder of September, resulting in 27 states (53%) reaching their 2010 response rate during the official enumeration period. Kansas and Rhode Island slipped behind the deadline over the weekend.

The following seven states would reach within 28 days, but not by the end of September.

Rhode Island is projected to reach its 2010 response rate on October 1.
Georgia is projected to reach its 2010 response rate on October 3.
Kansas is projected to reach its 2010 response rate on October 3.
New York is projected to reach its 2010 response rate on October 4.
Alaska is projected to reach its 2010 response rate on October 8.
Tennessee is projected to reach its 2010 response rate on October 12.
Pennsylvania  is projected to reach its 2010 response rate on October 12.

10 states in remainder of October.
3 states and DC in November
2 states in December
1 state in 2021, West Virginia on January 20

Green-7: Reached (20)
in July (2): MI, WA;
in August (10): NV, KY, ID, CO, OR, UT, VA, NH (25), AZ, OH;
in September (8): MD(3), MN, NJ(7), CT(8), ME, IN, CA, NE
Green-6: Next 14 days (7): AL, IL, MA(19), VT(19), DE(18), FL, SD
Green-5: By September 30 (0):
Red-3: By October 12, 28 days (7): RI(1), GA, KS, AK, NY, PA, TN
Red-4: October (10): NM, HI, TX, WI, OK, MO, AR, WY, LA, NC
Red-5: November (4): MS, DC, IA, SC
Red-6: December (2): ND, MT
Red-7: 2021 (1): WV

[Tender Branson]

92.4% of the US enumerated (+0.6)

Only a handful of states remain below 90%.

WV has caught ID at the top and both states are virtually 100% enumerated.

The one is the nation’s fastest declining state, the other the fastest growing.

[jimrtex]

ACO's that need to average 2.0% or more daily to reach 100% of the NRFU workload by September 30. Report day September 15, data day September 14. 68.0% or less:

48.1% (4.0%/last 3 days) Shreveport, LA (western and northern Louisiana)
51.7% (7.5%/3) Columbus, GA (southern Georgia)
51.9% (3.7%/3) Window Rock, AZ (Navajo reservation)
56.9% (7.0%/3) Jackson, MS (western and northern Mississippi)
57.4% (4.5%/3) Birmingham, MS (central Alabama)
61.5% (4.9%/3) Gwinnett County, GA (Gwinnett and points east)
62.5% (9.5%/3) Macon, GA (central Georgia, south-central from Atlanta perspective)
63.6% (6.2%/3) Philadelphia-Penn, PA (north Philadelphia)
64.1% (5.2%/3) Maricopa West, AZ (Glendale and westward)
64.4% (5.1%/3) Colorado Springs, CO (southern Colorado)
65.0% (5.0%/3) Pensacola, FL (Redneck Riviera)
65.1% (4.9%/3) Charleston, SC (Low Country, South Carolina)
65.6% (4.9%/3) Mobile, AL (southern Alabama)
65.7% (7.6%/3) Egg Harbor, NJ (far southern New Jersey)
65.8% (5.0%/3) Durham, NC (north central, includes Greensboro, but not Raleigh or Winston-Salem)
66.5% (6.1%/3) Brooklyn 1, NY (eastern Brooklyn)
66.7% (5.5%/3) Baton Rouge, LA (Baton Rouge and areas to east and west)
66.7% (4.5%/3) Douglasville, GA (western Atlanta suburbs and points west.
66.8% (5.0%/3) Atlanta, GA (Fulton County)
67.0% (4.9%/3) Greenville, NC (eastern North Carolina)
67.0% (4.5%/3) Huntsville, AL (northern Alabama)
67.6% (5.6%/3) Fort Bend County, TX (southern Houston suburbs, and down to Victoria)
67.6% (4.5%/3) Billings, MT (Montana)
67.9% (4.5%/3) Tampa, FL (Hillsborough County)

Billings and Tampa are new to the list, while two Arizona ACO's escape.

68.2% (8.1%/3) Maricopa Central, AZ (Phoenix, Scottsdale, not Mesa)
68.6% (8.5%/3) Tucson, AZ (southern Arizona)

Only 6 of the 24 ACO on the list averaged 2.0% or more over the past 3 days, but only 2 of those Macon, GA and Egg Harbor, NJ, averaged enough to reach 100% by September 30.

[Tender Branson]

The homeless will be counted next week.

That was already being tough for many reasons before the virus, but is even more so today.

[cinyc]

93% today.

[Tender Branson]

93% today.

All states except Alabama are now expected to reach 99%+ by the end of the month.

AL is stuck at 85% and only has 0.6% daily increases.

It will end at 94% and have 6% of its households left out. That’s 300.000 people.

Mostly Blacks.

And the hurricane there right now isn’t helping ...

[cinyc]

93% today.

All states except Alabama are now expected to reach 99%+ by the end of the month.

AL is stuck at 85% and only has 0.6% daily increases.

It will end at 94% and have 6% of its households left out. That’s 300.000 people.

Mostly Blacks.

And the hurricane there right now isn’t helping ...

Remember - households aren't the same thing as people.

Also remember - Alabama is on the bubble for losing a seat. So this really, really matters to them.

[Tender Branson]

93% today.

All states except Alabama are now expected to reach 99%+ by the end of the month.

AL is stuck at 85% and only has 0.6% daily increases.

It will end at 94% and have 6% of its households left out. That’s 300.000 people.

Mostly Blacks.

And the hurricane there right now isn’t helping ...

Remember - households aren't the same thing as people.

Also remember - Alabama is on the bubble for losing a seat. So this really, really matters to them.

If they cannot get their act together in the final 2 weeks in AL, and there’s no expansion into Oct. by court order, it can matter to them no matter what ... there will be a significant undercount in the state.

And if we assume 6% of households are uncounted, that’s 2.5 people there on average per household. There are not that many vacant households in AL, compared for example with WV.

[cinyc]

93% today.

All states except Alabama are now expected to reach 99%+ by the end of the month.

AL is stuck at 85% and only has 0.6% daily increases.

It will end at 94% and have 6% of its households left out. That’s 300.000 people.

Mostly Blacks.

And the hurricane there right now isn’t helping ...

Remember - households aren't the same thing as people.

Also remember - Alabama is on the bubble for losing a seat. So this really, really matters to them.

If they cannot get their act together in the final 2 weeks in AL, and there’s no expansion into Oct. by court order, it can matter to them no matter what ... there will be a significant undercount in the state.

And if we assume 6% of households are uncounted, that’s 2.5 people there on average per household. There are not that many vacant households in AL, compared for example with WV.

I don't know what specifically isn't counted in AL, but AL has a non-insignificant coastline that is full of vacation homes -- something that WV largely doesn't have.

[Tender Branson]

93% today.

All states except Alabama are now expected to reach 99%+ by the end of the month.

AL is stuck at 85% and only has 0.6% daily increases.

It will end at 94% and have 6% of its households left out. That’s 300.000 people.

Mostly Blacks.

And the hurricane there right now isn’t helping ...

Remember - households aren't the same thing as people.

Also remember - Alabama is on the bubble for losing a seat. So this really, really matters to them.

If they cannot get their act together in the final 2 weeks in AL, and there’s no expansion into Oct. by court order, it can matter to them no matter what ... there will be a significant undercount in the state.

And if we assume 6% of households are uncounted, that’s 2.5 people there on average per household. There are not that many vacant households in AL, compared for example with WV.

I don't know what specifically isn't counted in AL, but AL has a non-insignificant coastline that is full of vacation homes -- something that WV largely doesn't have.

The Coast is already counted at a higher rate though:

https://2020census.gov/en/response-rates/nrfu-completion.html

It’s the ACO in the middle of the state (Black Belt), which is lagging more behind ...

[jimrtex]

ACO's that need to average 2.0% or more daily to reach 100% of the NRFU workload by September 30. Report day September 16, data day September 15. 70.0% or less:

49.7% (5.6%/last 4 days) Shreveport, LA (western and northern Louisiana)
54.4% (10.2%/4) Columbus, GA (southern Georgia)
53.7% (5.5%/4) Window Rock, AZ (Navajo reservation)
59.4% (6.5%/4) Birmingham, MS (central Alabama)
59.6% (9.7%/4) Jackson, MS (western and northern Mississippi)
63.5% (6.9%/4) Gwinnett County, GA (Gwinnett and points east)
65.8% (12.8%/4) Macon, GA (central Georgia, south-central from Atlanta perspective)
65.7% (8.3%/4) Philadelphia-Penn, PA (north Philadelphia)
66.2% (6.9%/4) Colorado Springs, CO (southern Colorado)
66.0% (6.0%/4) Pensacola, FL (Redneck Riviera)
66.3% (7.4%/4) Maricopa West, AZ (Glendale and westward)
66.7% (6.0%/4) Mobile, AL (southern Alabama)
67.0% (6.8%/4) Charleston, SC (Low Country, South Carolina)
67.7% (6.9%/4) Durham, NC (north central, includes Greensboro, but not Raleigh or Winston-Salem)
68.5% (6.3%/4) Douglasville, GA (western Atlanta suburbs and points west.
68.5% (10.4%/4) Egg Harbor, NJ (far southern New Jersey)
68.7% (7.5%/4) Baton Rouge, LA (Baton Rouge and areas to east and west)
68.7% (6.2%/4) Huntsville, AL (northern Alabama)
68.9% (8.5%/4) Brooklyn 1, NY (eastern Brooklyn)
69.0% (6.9%/4) Greenville, NC (eastern North Carolina)
69.1% (7.3%/4) Atlanta, GA (Fulton County)
69.2% (6.1%/4) Billings, MT (Montana)
69.8% (7.8%/4) Fort Bend County, TX (southern Houston suburbs, and down to Victoria)
69.9% (6.5%/4) Tampa, FL (Hillsborough County)

No changes to list.

Only 6 of the 24 ACO on the list averaged 2.0% or more over the past 4 days, though there seems to be an increasing rate. Maybe weekdays are better than weekends.

[cinyc]

93.6% total enumeration rate as of today’s report. Self-Response rate is up to 66.0% - only 0.5 points behind the 2010 rate.

[jimrtex]

93% today.

All states except Alabama are now expected to reach 99%+ by the end of the month.

AL is stuck at 85% and only has 0.6% daily increases.

It will end at 94% and have 6% of its households left out. That’s 300.000 people.

Mostly Blacks.

And the hurricane there right now isn’t helping ...

Remember - households aren't the same thing as people.

Also remember - Alabama is on the bubble for losing a seat. So this really, really matters to them.

If they cannot get their act together in the final 2 weeks in AL, and there’s no expansion into Oct. by court order, it can matter to them no matter what ... there will be a significant undercount in the state.

And if we assume 6% of households are uncounted, that’s 2.5 people there on average per household. There are not that many vacant households in AL, compared for example with WV.

I don't know what specifically isn't counted in AL, but AL has a non-insignificant coastline that is full of vacation homes -- something that WV largely doesn't have.

Determining that a vacation home is vacant counts as a completion for NRFU. There probably won't be a self-response unless the owner sends in a form that no one resided there on April 1, or perhaps got confused a filed two forms. I imagine there are people who had a summer residence in the Catskills, but lived and worked in NYC, but escaped in May and are working remotely from the Catskills who decided that is now their primary residence (the SOS can't expect someone to recall their state of mind on April 1). They could have driven up in late March for the first time since they were up over Christmas, and not expecting to spend more than a couple of weeks.

It may actually be easier to determine that a house is vacant, than to get someone who lives in the house to respond, and you have to repeatedly visit (vacancy is a bit trickier since the issue is was the house or apartment vacant on April 1 five months ago, but it is tricky for occupied apartments. "You moved in June? Do you know who lived here on April 1?" "No we just moved here from Bangladesh (or Baltimore, or Burbank)"

But both Mobile and Pensacola ACO had really poor days yesterday (0.6%).

[jimrtex]

ACO's that need to average 2.0% or more daily to reach 100% of the NRFU workload by September 30. Report day September 17, data day September 16. 72.0% or less.

I've included projected completion dates based on completion rate over last five days. For the most part, they would be close. Some have done quite well (e.g. Macon bacon at over 3% per day). Pensacola and Mobile have been the lowest recent performers due to Sally, and they are probably going to continue to be messed. For example, beach towns in Alabama are closed to outsiders for a week and a half, and lots of residents have fled inland.

51.3% (7.2%/last 5 days, 10/20 projected completion) Shreveport, LA (western and northern Louisiana)
55.6% (7.4%/5, 10/17) Window Rock, AZ (Navajo reservation)
56.1% (11.9%/5, 10/5) Columbus, GA (southern Georgia)
61.1% (8.2%/5, 10/10) Birmingham, MS (central Alabama)
62.4% (12.5%/5, 10/2) Jackson, MS (western and northern Mississippi)
65.2% (8.6%/5, 10/7) Gwinnett County, GA (Gwinnett and points east)
66.6% (6.6%/5), 10/12) Pensacola, FL (Redneck Riviera)
67.3% (6.6%/5, 10/11) Mobile, AL (southern Alabama)
67.7% (10.3%/5, 10/2) Philadelphia-Penn, PA (north Philadelphia)
67.9% (8.6%/5, 10/5) Colorado Springs, CO (southern Colorado)
68.2% (15.2%/5, 9/27) Macon, GA (central Georgia, south-central from Atlanta perspective)
68.5% (8.3%/5, 10/5) Charleston, SC (Low Country, South Carolina)
68.7% (9.8%/5, 10/2) Maricopa West, AZ (Glendale and westward)
69.6% (7,4%/5, 10/7) Douglasville, GA (western Atlanta suburbs and points west.
69.6% (8.8%/5, 10/4) Durham, NC (north central, includes Greensboro, but not Raleigh or Winston-Salem)
70.2% (7.7%/5, 10/6) Huntsville, AL (northern Alabama)
70.9% (8.8%/5, 10/3) Greenville, NC (eastern North Carolina)
71.0% (7.9%/5, 10/5) Billings, MT (Montana)
71.0% (9.8%/5, 10/1) Baton Rouge, LA (Baton Rouge and areas to east and west)
71.1% (9.3%/5, 10/2) Atlanta, GA (Fulton County)
71.1% (10.7%/5, 9/30) Brooklyn 1, NY (eastern Brooklyn)
71.3% (13.2%/5, 9/27) Egg Harbor, NJ (far southern New Jersey)
71.6% (8.2%/5, 10/4) Tampa, FL (Hillsborough County)
71.8% (9.8%/5, 10/1) Fort Bend County, TX (southern Houston suburbs, and down to Victoria)

[jimrtex]

93% today.

All states except Alabama are now expected to reach 99%+ by the end of the month.

AL is stuck at 85% and only has 0.6% daily increases.

It will end at 94% and have 6% of its households left out. That’s 300.000 people.

Mostly Blacks.

And the hurricane there right now isn’t helping ...

Remember - households aren't the same thing as people.

Also remember - Alabama is on the bubble for losing a seat. So this really, really matters to them.

If they cannot get their act together in the final 2 weeks in AL, and there’s no expansion into Oct. by court order, it can matter to them no matter what ... there will be a significant undercount in the state.

And if we assume 6% of households are uncounted, that’s 2.5 people there on average per household. There are not that many vacant households in AL, compared for example with WV.

I don't know what specifically isn't counted in AL, but AL has a non-insignificant coastline that is full of vacation homes -- something that WV largely doesn't have.

The Coast is already counted at a higher rate though:

https://2020census.gov/en/response-rates/nrfu-completion.html

It’s the ACO in the middle of the state (Black Belt), which is lagging more behind ...

The Census Bureau didn't show up with all the data ordered, so the injunction has been extended and a new hearing will be held next week.

Meanwhile clean bills have been introduced in the House and Senate that would (1) extend the apportionment release until next April, and PL 94/171 data up until July 31, 2021. NRFU and self-response would have to continue through October 31.

[Tender Branson]

If not extended by Court order, the bi-partisan bills introduced in Congress this week could now extend the timeframe further.

It seems this bill has a serious chance to pass now, because it comes with no strings attached from Democrats (like previous bills, that were killed by Republicans) and the bill is only focusing on extending the timeframe for counting, post-processing, quality checks etc.

[Tender Branson]

Interesting slides from the Census Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting yesterday:

https://www2.census.gov/cac/sac/meetings/2020-09/presentation-2020-census-update.pdf

https://www2.census.gov/cac/sac/meetings/2020-09/presentation-post-enumeration-methodology.pdf

https://www2.census.gov/cac/sac/meetings/2020-09/presentation-update-administrative-record-usage.pdf

https://www.census.gov/about/cac/sac/meetings/2020-09-meeting.html