The Official 2020 Census Thread

[Tender Branson]

97.4% of the US is now enumerated (+0.4)

12 states + PR are now at 99% or higher.

7 states remain below 95%: AL, LA, MT, SC, MS, GA and NM.

AL is the lowest at 91.8% - but had a 0.7% daily increase yesterday.

The US-wide self-response rate is now 66.4%, just 0.1% short of the final 2010 self-response rate.

[jimrtex]

97.4% of the US is now enumerated (+0.4)

12 states + PR are now at 99% or higher.

7 states remain below 95%: AL, LA, MT, SC, MS, GA and NM.

AL is the lowest at 91.8% - but had a 0.7% daily increase yesterday.

The US-wide self-response rate is now 66.4%, just 0.1% short of the final 2010 self-response rate.

This is consistent with 92.3% NRFU completion.

[jimrtex]

There is possibly a glitch in updating NRFU completion:

https://gis-portal.data.census.gov/arcgis/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=771cf5999c6a4611acb397a3a342e0b0

To make sure it is not some browser caching problem,

What does someone else see for...

Minneapolis, MN - 97.7%
Montgomery County, TX - 88.0%
Milwaukee, WI - 86.7%
Ocala, FL - 87.2%
Fredericksburg, VA - 85.7%

Are they going backwards? If so, it's because of the court order.

Even more mysteries.

Minneapolis is now at 96.2%. After no gain for Thursday, they lost 1.5% on Friday. That's around 3000 housing units.

Montgomery County is now at 88.6%. That is 0.6% for two days after 1.2% and 1.1% for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Milwaukee is at 89.3% for a 2.6% gain for two days, which is up from 1.0% and 1.0% the previous twp days.

Ocala is at 88.7% up 1.5% for two days, after 1.5% and 1.7% the previous days.

Fredericksburg is at 88.1% up 2.6% for two days after 1.5% and 1.3% the previous two days.

It appears that Milwaukee and Fredericksburg have recovered from the glitch, catching up.

Ocala and Montgomery have lost at least a day, and Minneapolis has gone backwards.

Minneapolis is one of three ACO in Minnesota. The drop is significant enough to stall Minnesota's completion over the past two days.

[cinyc]

As I said, the reason they're going backwards is because they're making more attempts to contact people who otherwise have had their stautses imputed - i.e. those whose neighbors answered for them are getting another chance to speak for themselves. This is because of the court order.

[jimrtex]

There are 15(of 245) ACO as of collection date September 23 which are at 98% NRFU completion, which means over 99% total completion. Beckley, WV and Parsippany, NJ were left off this list.

Honolulu, HI (Hawaii)
West Covina, CA (San Gabriel Valley)
Boise, ID (Idaho)
Harris County NW, TX (outside FM-1960 and TX-6)
Wichita, KS (Kansas except northeastern corner)
Fayetteville, AC (southwestern half of Arkansas - cut on NW to SE diagonal)
New Orleans, LA (extreme southeastern Louisiana)
Mansfield, OH (northeast Ohio, excluding Cleveland, Akron, Youngstown)
South Point, OH (southeastern Ohio)
Beckley, WV (West Virginia)
Fairfax, VA (Loudoun and western part of Fairfax)
Cranberry Township, PA (western Pennsylvania, excluding Allegheny)
State College, PA (central swath of Pennsylvania)
Parsippany, NJ (northwestern New Jersey)
Gardiner, ME (Maine)

Five more ACO were added on September 24, bringing the total to 20 of 245. However, it appears that Savannah, GA has retrogressed.

Seattle, WA (western King County, Shoreline to Federal Way)
Olympia, OR (western Washington, Olympic Peninsula to Vancouver)
Evansville, IN (southern Indiana)
Savannah, GA (southeastern Georgia)
Burlington, VT (Burlington)

Seven more ACO reached on September 25, bringing the total to 26 of 245 (10.6%)

Tacoma, WA (Pierce and southeastern King: Renton, Kent, Auburn)
Salem, WA (northwestern Oregon, except Multnomah and Clackamas)
Williamson County, TX (doughnut around Travis)
Houston West, TX (Between Katy Freeway (I-10) and Brays Bayou, west of West Loop (I-610).
Oklahoma County, OK (northwestern Oklahoma, including Oklahoma and Canadian counties)
Eau Claire, WI (northern Wisconsin)
Madison, WI (southwestern Wisconsin)

[Tender Branson]

Yeah, I'm pretty sure that's because of the 1 month extra time they got from the Court.

They are now trying to re-contact people who were previously rated by census takers as "imputed" - for example with the help of neighbours.

This is a good development, because it increases the quality of the data.

And they have generally more time for data quality control now. They previously said that by ending on Sept. 30, they would have had to scrap all quality control measures that they did in previous censuses.

[jimrtex]

As I said, the reason they're going backwards is because they're making more attempts to contact people who otherwise have had their stautses imputed - i.e. those whose neighbors answered for them are getting another chance to speak for themselves. This is because of the court order.

I doubt that these are the reasons, but I did find some other ACO that had retrograde completions (Hagertstown, MD, which includes Montgomery County went from 97.5% to 94.1%).

Imputation does not occur until after data collection, and is applied to housing units they were not able to determine number of occupants, and in some cases even whether there were occupants. In an extremely tiny number they may not have been able to determine whether the housing unit exists or not.

Use of proxies for non-responding households was always part of census planning. If after 7 mailings, and 3 visits, including leaving census materials, a household is not likely to respond.

It is possible that they have re-included auditing visits. The NRFU workload was always expected to include auditing visits. There may be errors by enumerators, either accidental or deliberate. If you are paid a bounty for completions, there may be fictitious entries. You go up to the door, nobody responds, and you begin entering data. Some of this may be caught if the household self responds as the Jones (in mid-20s with 3 kids) when the enumerator said they were the Smiths an elderly couple in their 70s. Even though enumerators are fingerprinted and pass a background check and are under oath, does not mean that some are less conscientious than others.

The use of the census devices means that enumerators can be monitored in both time and location. Some enumerators quit, some are fired (there were over 200,000 at any time). There is some random auditing even of those that seem to be OK. Self-responses may also be audited. Ordinary persons make mistakes, when I was in the census test, there was a followup call which was entirely focused on persons I might have missed. I gave about 20 no answers (No, I don't have an accessible attic; No, I don't have a cellar or basement; No, I didn't include college students away at college; No, I don't have any newborns; No, I don't have foster children; No, I haven't noticed food missing or lights going on and off.)

As part of the speed-up some auditing was deferred. It is better to try to hit every housing unit, than to miss some, while getting better results from some.

It is conceivable that there was some problem detected with first level supervisors. The decreases were in the few 1000s, more than an individual enumerator would be responsible for.

[jimrtex]

Yeah, I'm pretty sure that's because of the 1 month extra time they got from the Court.

They are now trying to re-contact people who were previously rated by census takers as "imputed" - for example with the help of neighbours.

This is a good development, because it increases the quality of the data.

And they have generally more time for data quality control now. They previously said that by ending on Sept. 30, they would have had to scrap all quality control measures that they did in previous censuses.

It is likely quality control.

There is a difference between imputation and use of proxies. Use of proxies was always in census planning as was imputation. There was quite likely to be greater imputation because of the delay.

[jimrtex]

ACO's that need to average 2.0% or more daily to reach 98% of the NRFU workload by September 30. Report day September 25, data day September 24. 86.0% or less.

Winston-Salem, NC and Jacksonville, FL are added. The 29 ACO at highest risk represent 11.8% of all ACO. Average daily gain is 1.65%, so few are likely to reach 98%. It appears that Sundays are a bit weaker (75% or so of weekdays, and Saturday just a small tad less). They might have trouble getting enumerators to work on Sundays, or they are waiting until the afternoon (after church services).

Average rate is for seven days (rolling average).

67.2 (2.03%, 10/10) Shreveport, LA (western and northern Louisiana)
68.3 (1.56%, 10/14) Window Rock, AZ (Navajo reservation)
74.3 (2.27%, 10/5) Columbus, GA (southern Georgia)
77.3 (1.99%, 10/5) Birmingham, AL (central Alabama)
78.4 (1.43%, 10/8) Mobile, AL (southern Alabama)
79.0 (2.00%, 10/4) Jackson, MS (western and northern Mississippi)
79.6 (1.67%, 10/6) Pensacola, FL (Redneck Riviera)
80.1 (1.87%, 10/4) Gwinnett County, GA (Gwinnett and points east)
80.8 (1.56%, 10/6) Colorado Springs, CO (southern Colorado)
81.2 (1.33%, 10/7) Huntsville, AL (northern Alabama)
81.3 (1.49%, 10/6) Durham, NC (north central, includes Greensboro, but not Raleigh or Winston-Salem)
82.0 (1.69%, 10/4) Charleston, SC (Low Country, South Carolina)
82.8 (1.71%, 10/3) Douglasville, GA (western Atlanta suburbs and points west.
83.1 (1.44%, 10/5) Columbia, SC (Midlands)
83.4 (1.54%, 10/4) Billings, MT (Montana)
83.5 (1.99%, 10/2) Philadelphia-Penn, PA (north Philadelphia)
83.6 (1.30%, 10/6) Tulsa, OK (northeast Oklahoma)
83.8 (1.81%, 10/2) Maricopa West, AZ (Glendale and westward)
83.9 (1.41%, 10/4) Fort Bend County, TX (southern Houston suburbs, and down to Victoria)
84.1 (1.41%, 10/4) Lakeland, FL (south central peninsula)
84.2 (1.53%, 10/4) Tampa, FL (Hillsborough County)
84.3 (1.73%, 10/2) Greenville, NC (eastern North Carolina)
84.6 (1.36%, 10/4) Seminole County, FL (Seminole, Volusia, Brevard counties)
85.1 (1.70%, 10/2) Atlanta, GA (Fulton County)
85.2 (1.59%, 10/3) Philadelphia-Franklin, PA (south and west Philadelphia)
85.2 (1.73%, 10/2) Baton Rouge, LA (Baton Rouge and areas to east and west)
85.5 (1.54%, 10/3) Winston-Salem, NC (northwestern North Carolina)
85.8 (1.51%, 10/3) Jacksonville, FL (Duval, Nassau, Baker counties)
85.8 (1.77%, 10/1) Brooklyn 1, NY (eastern Brooklyn)

This is a secondary group that need to average 1.5% or more daily to reach 98% of the NRFU workload by September 30. Report day September 25, data day September 24. Between 86.0% and 89.0%.

Newark, NJ and Montgomery County, TX are additions, while DeKalb, GA has escaped. Two ACO have slipped into the 2% group. The average daily increase is 1.44% which could suggest that these ACO are in reasonable shape, however, it appears completions are declining as these ACO approach 90%.

It appears that some of the northern ACO have fairly low recent completions. It is likely that southern areas had more awareness of how far they were away, and hired more enumerators or brought in enumerators from elsewhere.

The 26 ACO at moderate risk represent 10.6% of all ACO.

86.3 (1.13%, 10/5) Memphis, TN (far western Tennessee)
86.4 (1.11%, 10/5) Louisville, KY (western Kentucky)
86.5 (1.66%, 10/1) Baltimore, MD (Baltimore City)
86.8 (1.34%, 10/3) Fredericksburg, VA (northern Virginia, excluding Loudoun, Fairfax, Arlington counties, Alexandria)
86.9 (1.47%, 10/2) Albuquerque, NM (northern New Mexico, except Navajo Reservation)
86.9 (1.53%, 10/2) Tucson, AZ (southern Arizona)
87.1 (0.83%, 10/8) Santa Rosa, CA (North Coast California)
87.1 (1.59%, 10/1) West Palm Beach, FL (Palm Beach and Martin counties)
87.3 (1.66%, 10/1) Akron, OH (northeastern Ohio)
87.4 (1.13%, 10/4) Chico, CA (Inland Northern California)
87.4 (1.56%, 10/1) Fayetteville, NC (southeastern North Carolina)
87.4 (1.64%, 10/1) Cleveland, OH (Cuyahoga, excluding outer suburbs)
87.5 (2.36%, 9/29) Macon, GA (central Georgia, south-central from Atlanta perspective)
87.9 (1.46%, 10/1) Ocala, FL (north central Peninsula)
88.0 (1.04%, 10/4) Milwaukee, WI (Milwaukee County)
88.0 (1.34%, 10/2) Gainesville, GA (nothern Georgia)
88.0 (1.67%, 9/30) Maricopa Central, AZ (Glendale and points west)
88.1 (1.50%, 10/1) Detroit, MI (Wayne County)
88.3 (1.17%, 10/3) Montgomery County, TX (southeastern Texas)
88.3 (1.21%, 10/2) Flagstaff. AZ (northern Arizona)
88.5 (1.07%, 10/3) Newark, NJ (eastern Essex County)
88.6 (1.39%, 10/1) Allentown, PA (northeastern Pennsylvania)
88.6 (1.70%, 9/30) Lexington, KY (eastern Kentucky)
88.9 (1.41%, 10/1) Lansing, MI (southern Michigan)
89.0 (1.67%, 9/30) Fort Myers, FL (Manatee, Sarasota, Charlotte, Lee)
89.0 (1.84%, 9/29) Des Moines, IA (Iowa)

[cinyc]

97.7% total enumeration rate in today's report. Self-response remains at 66.4%. Will it tie the 2010 rate tomorrow?

[jimrtex]

97.7% total enumeration rate in today's report. Self-response remains at 66.4%. Will it tie the 2010 rate tomorrow?

Indicates 93.2% NRFU.

[jimrtex]

ACO's that need to average 2.0% or more daily to reach 98% of the NRFU workload by September 30. Report day September 26, data day September 25. 88.0% or less.

Louisville, KY; Memphis, TN; and Baltimore, MD are added.Winston-Salem, NC. The 32 ACO at highest risk represent 13.1% of all ACO. Average daily gain is 1.60%, so few are likely to reach 98%.

Average rate is for seven days (rolling average).

69.1 (2.00%, 10/10) Shreveport, LA (western and northern Louisiana)
69.9 (1.54%, 10/14) Window Rock, AZ (Navajo reservation)
76.3 (2.23%, 10/5) Columbus, GA (southern Georgia)
79.1 (1.96%, 10/5) Birmingham, AL (central Alabama)
79.7 (1.41%, 10/8) Mobile, AL (southern Alabama)
80.9 (1.91%, 10/4) Jackson, MS (western and northern Mississippi)
81.3 (1.64%, 10/6) Pensacola, FL (Redneck Riviera)
81.8 (1.84%, 10/4) Gwinnett County, GA (Gwinnett and points east)
82.6 (1.46%, 10/6) Durham, NC (north central, includes Greensboro, but not Raleigh or Winston-Salem)
82.6 (1.57%, 10/5) Colorado Springs, CO (southern Colorado)
82.7 (1.31%, 10/7) Huntsville, AL (northern Alabama)
83.5 (1.67%, 10/4) Charleston, SC (Low Country, South Carolina)
84.3 (1.41%, 10/5) Columbia, SC (Midlands)
84.4 (1.80%, 10/3) Douglasville, GA (western Atlanta suburbs and points west.
85.1 (1.97%, 10/2) Philadelphia-Penn, PA (north Philadelphia)
85.2 (1.57%, 10/4) Billings, MT (Montana)
85.3 (1.37%, 10/5) Lakeland, FL (south central peninsula)
85.4 (1.46%, 10/4) Tampa, FL (Hillsborough County)
85.6 (1.39%, 10/4) Tulsa, OK (northeast Oklahoma)
85.7 (1.80%, 10/2) Maricopa West, AZ (Glendale and westward)
85.8 (1.29%, 10/5) Seminole County, FL (Seminole, Volusia, Brevard counties)
85.8 (1.41%, 10/4) Fort Bend County, TX (southern Houston suburbs, and down to Victoria)
86.1 (1.76%, 10/2) Greenville, NC (eastern North Carolina)
86.6 (1.44%, 10/3) Winston-Salem, NC (northwestern North Carolina)
86.6 (1.57%, 10/3) Philadelphia-Franklin, PA (south and west Philadelphia)
86.6 (1.66%, 10/2) Baton Rouge, LA (Baton Rouge and areas to east and west)
87.1 (1.71%, 10/2) Atlanta, GA (Fulton County)
87.2 (1.06%, 10/6) Louisville, KY (western Kentucky)
87.2 (1.09%, 10/5) Memphis, TN (far western Tennessee)
87.2 (1.49%, 10/3) Jacksonville, FL (Duval, Nassau, Baker counties)
87.2 (1.69%, 10/2) Brooklyn 1, NY (eastern Brooklyn)
87.9 (1.60%, 10/2) Baltimore, MD (Baltimore City)

This is a secondary group that need to average 1.5% or more daily to reach 98% of the NRFU workload by September 30. Report day September 26, data day September 25. Between 88.0% and 90.5%.

Eugene, OR; Southgate, CA; Sioux Falls, SD; Shelbyville, TN; Washington, DC; Brooklyn 4, NY; and Boston, MA are additions, while Des Moines, IA has escaped. The average daily increase is 1.28%, a significant drop from previous days. This may because of inclusion of more northern ACO's which have been poorer performing, and also a reset of the NRFU percentage.

The 30 ACO at moderate risk represent 12.2% of all ACO.

88.1 (1.33%, 10/3) Fredericksburg, VA (northern Virginia, excluding Loudoun, Fairfax, Arlington counties, Alexandria)
88.3 (0.86%, 10/7) Santa Rosa, CA (North Coast California)
88.3 (1.40%, 10/2) Tucson, AZ (southern Arizona)
88.4 (1.46%, 10/2) Albuquerque, NM (northern New Mexico, except Navajo Reservation)
88.6 (0.94%, 10/5) Montgomery County, TX (southeastern Texas)
88.6 (1.50%, 10/2) Fayetteville, NC (southeastern North Carolina)
88.6 (1.56%, 10/2) Akron, OH (northeastern Ohio)
88.7 (1.34%, 10/2) Ocala, FL (north central Peninsula)
88.7 (1.57%, 10/1) West Palm Beach, FL (Palm Beach and Martin counties)
88.8 (1.14%, 10/4) Chico, CA (Inland Northern California)
89.1 (1.69%, 10/1) Cleveland, OH (Cuyahoga, excluding outer suburbs)
89.2 (1.29%, 10/2) Gainesville, GA (nothern Georgia)
89.2 (2.19%, 9/30) Macon, GA (central Georgia, south-central from Atlanta perspective)
89.3 (1.07%, 10/4) Milwaukee, WI (Milwaukee County)
89.5 (1.44%, 10/1) Detroit, MI (Wayne County)
89.6 (1.20%, 10/3) Flagstaff. AZ (northern Arizona)
89.6 (1.60%, 10/1) Lexington, KY (eastern Kentucky)
89.7 (1.64%, 10/1) Maricopa Central, AZ (Glendale and points west)
89.8 (1.36%, 10/2) Allentown, PA (northeastern Pennsylvania)
90.0 (1.09%, 10/3) Newark, NJ (eastern Essex County)
90.1 (0.66%, 10/8) Eugene, OR (southern and eastern Oregon)
90.1 (1.20%, 10/2) Gulfport, MS (southern Mississippi)
90.2 (1.39%, 10/1) Lansing, MI (southern Michigan)
90.3 (0.76%, 10/6) Southgate, CA (South Central, Huntington Park, Compton)
90.3 (0.89%, 10/4) Brooklyn 4, NY (southwestern Brooklyn)
90.3 (0.96%, 10/4) Washington, DC (District of Columbia)
90.4 (1.10%, 10/2) Sioux Falls, SD (South Dakota)
90.4 (1.17%, 10/2) Shelbyville, TN (central and western Tennessee, except Nashville and Memphis)
90.4 (1.66%, 9/30) Fort Myers, FL (Manatee, Sarasota, Charlotte, Lee)
90.5 (0.83%, 10/5) Boston, MA (Suffolk County)

[cinyc]

97.9.% total enumerated as of today's report. Self-response stubbornly remains at 66.4%.

In other news:
https://twitter.com/uscensusbureau/status/1310685274104569856

[Mike Thick]

97.9.% total enumerated as of today's report. Self-response stubbornly remains at 66.4%.

In other news:
https://twitter.com/uscensusbureau/status/1310685274104569856

This is in direct defiance of a court order, no?

[Ferguson97]

This is in direct defiance of a court order, no?

Yeah but who's gonna stop them?

[cinyc]

97.9.% total enumerated as of today's report. Self-response stubbornly remains at 66.4%.

In other news:
https://twitter.com/uscensusbureau/status/1310685274104569856

This is in direct defiance of a court order, no?

Probably, but perhaps not directly. Exactly what's going on is unclear, but one theory is that the injunction only said they can't end enumerating on September 30. So they picked another date. I have no idea whether that's true, though.

I suppose they could always appeal this judge's order to the 9th Circuit, too - the article you linked says that they are. But I don't think the 9th Circuit has lifted the injunction yet.

[Tender Branson]

97.9.% total enumerated as of today's report. Self-response stubbornly remains at 66.4%.

In other news:
https://twitter.com/uscensusbureau/status/1310685274104569856

This is in direct defiance of a court order, no?

This is absurd.

AL, the lowest-ranked state, is only at 93% completion and increasing only by 0.5 per day any longer.

They would need another 3 weeks with decreasing enumeration rates.

Terminating at Oct. 5th would be far too early.

[jimrtex]

For what it's worth

There's something happening here
What it is ain't exactly clear

Minneapolis NRFU last five days: 97.7%, 97.7%, 96.2%, 98.2%, 98.1%

Probably an early ice storm, and enumerator is on a hill and having trouble getting traction.

[cinyc]

97.9.% total enumerated as of today's report. Self-response stubbornly remains at 66.4%.

In other news:
https://twitter.com/uscensusbureau/status/1310685274104569856

This is in direct defiance of a court order, no?

This is absurd.

AL, the lowest-ranked state, is only at 93% completion and increasing only by 0.5 per day any longer.

They would need another 3 weeks with decreasing enumeration rates.

Terminating at Oct. 5th would be far too early.

They could always flood that ACO with more staff from neighboring ACOs where things are done to make the count in the lagging ACOs go quicker.

[jimrtex]

There are 15(of 245) ACO as of collection date September 23 which are at 98% NRFU completion, which means over 99% total completion. Beckley, WV and Parsippany, NJ were left off this list.

Honolulu, HI (Hawaii)
West Covina, CA (San Gabriel Valley)
Boise, ID (Idaho)
Harris County NW, TX (outside FM-1960 and TX-6)
Wichita, KS (Kansas except northeastern corner)
Fayetteville, AC (southwestern half of Arkansas - cut on NW to SE diagonal)
New Orleans, LA (extreme southeastern Louisiana)
Mansfield, OH (northeast Ohio, excluding Cleveland, Akron, Youngstown)
South Point, OH (southeastern Ohio)
Beckley, WV (West Virginia)
Fairfax, VA (Loudoun and western part of Fairfax)
Cranberry Township, PA (western Pennsylvania, excluding Allegheny)
State College, PA (central swath of Pennsylvania)
Parsippany, NJ (northwestern New Jersey)
Gardiner, ME (Maine)

Five more ACO were added on September 24, bringing the total to 20 of 245. However, it appears that Savannah, GA has retrogressed.

Seattle, WA (western King County, Shoreline to Federal Way)
Olympia, OR (western Washington, Olympic Peninsula to Vancouver)
Evansville, IN (southern Indiana)
Savannah, GA (southeastern Georgia)
Burlington, VT (Burlington)

Seven more ACO reached on September 25, bringing the total to 26 of 245 (10.6%)

Tacoma, WA (Pierce and southeastern King: Renton, Kent, Auburn)
Salem, WA (northwestern Oregon, except Multnomah and Clackamas)
Williamson County, TX (doughnut around Travis)
Houston West, TX (Between Katy Freeway (I-10) and Brays Bayou, west of West Loop (I-610).
Oklahoma County, OK (northwestern Oklahoma, including Oklahoma and Canadian counties)
Eau Claire, WI (northern Wisconsin)
Madison, WI (southwestern Wisconsin)

Added on September 26 (Waltham, MA likely reached earlier; Savannah, GA reaches second time). 11 added to reach total of 36 (14.7%)

Pasadena, CA (Pasadena, Glendale, East LA, downtown LA)
Austin, TX (Travis)
Harris County East, TX (between East Freeway (I-10) and Gulf Freeway (I-45)
Harris County Northeast, TX (between East Freeway (I-10) and North Freeway (I-45)
Houston Northwest, TX (inside TX-6 and FM-1960)
Denton County, TX (north central Texas, including Denton, Parker, and Wichita Falls)
Minneapolis, MN (Hennepin)
Knoxville, TN (eastern Tennessee)
Nashville, TN (greater Nashville)
Savannah, GA (southeastern Georgia)
Waltham, MA (Middlesex)

Added on September 27 (the three San Antonio ACO likely reached 98% a few days ago). 6 added to reach total of 42 (17.1%).

Everett, WA (Snohomish north to border, plus Northeast King (Bellvue, Redmond, Kirkland)
San Antonio North, TX (northern Bexar)
San Antonio West, TX (western Bexar)
San Antonio East, TX (eastern Bexar)
Collin County, TX (north central Texas, including Collin, Grayson, Rockwall, Kaufman counties)
Fort Wayne, IN (northeastern Indiana)

[jimrtex]

97.9.% total enumerated as of today's report. Self-response stubbornly remains at 66.4%.

In other news:
https://twitter.com/uscensusbureau/status/1310685274104569856

This is in direct defiance of a court order, no?

This is absurd.

AL, the lowest-ranked state, is only at 93% completion and increasing only by 0.5 per day any longer.

They would need another 3 weeks with decreasing enumeration rates.

Terminating at Oct. 5th would be far too early.

They could always flood that ACO with more staff from neighboring ACOs where things are done to make the count in the lagging ACOs go quicker.

Generally, there are no neighboring ACO near completion to low-performing ACO, and the enumerators are working from home, or there may be cultural mismatches. Someone from Rye may be comfortable going to Yankee Stadium, they might not be comfortable working some residential areas in the Bronx.

There are two ACO between North Carolina and Louisiana, including Florida that have reached 98% NRFU (New Orleans, LA and Savannah, GA).

Let's estimate 50,000,000 NRFU housing units (1/3 of 150,000,000). That is around 200,000 per (245 ACO). Areas with low self-response might be closer to 300,000; or high self-response around 150,000.

With 220,000 enumerators active at any time, that is 900 enumerators per ACO, or a typical workload of 220 housing units. At a rate of 1.5 completions per hour (remember this includes travel time and possibly multiple visits). That works out to around 148 hours (say six weeks at 25 hours/week).

Alternatively 330,000,000 Americans divided by 220,000 enumerators equals 1500 persons per enumerator, but 1000 of those persons will have self-enumerated.

In a larger ACO with lots of counties, there may be spot shortages. If a county of 15,000 in Iowa you might need 10 enumerators. You might be able to hire 12 and lay them off as you get closer to completion, or if you can find 8 you can give them an incentive to work more. Maybe they can work in a neighboring county. Driving to and from that county might add an hour to the day. Beyond that, and you are going to need to put them up in a hotel.

In an urban area, it is likely easier since instead of a neighboring county, the work would be in a nearby neighborhood.

[jimrtex]

ACO's that need to average 2.0% or more daily to reach 98% of the NRFU workload by September 30. Report day September 27, data day September 26. 90.0% or less.

Santa Rosa, CA; Fredericksburg, VA; Tucson, AZ; Fayetteville, NC; Akron, OH; Ocala, FL; Albuquerque, NM; Gainesville, GA; and West Palm Beach, FL slide into this category. There is a general slowing as ACO's approach completion, leaving the hardest cases who may have evaded nine mailings, phone calls, emails, and multiple visits. Northern areas entering the list seem to have been caught unaware of the approaching deadline, while the southern areas may have ramped up their efforts, and finally some ACO's have been affected by NRFU resets. While they might not have gone backwards, they may have seen a daily rate over 1%, suddenly drop to a few 0.1%.

The 41 ACO at highest risk represent 16.7% of all ACO. Average daily gain is 1.51%, so few are likely to reach 98% by the end of the month.

Average rate is for seven days (rolling average).

70.7 (1.91%, 10/11) Shreveport, LA (western and northern Louisiana)
71.9 (1.61%, 10/13) Window Rock, AZ (Navajo reservation)
78.2 (2.11%, 10/6) Columbus, GA (southern Georgia)
80.9 (1.90%, 10/6) Birmingham, AL (central Alabama)
81.1 (1.41%, 10/8) Mobile, AL (southern Alabama)
82.3 (1.76%, 10/5) Jackson, MS (western and northern Mississippi)
82.8 (1.69%, 10/6) Pensacola, FL (Redneck Riviera)
83.1 (1.73%, 10/5) Gwinnett County, GA (Gwinnett and points east)
84.0 (1.27%, 10/8) Huntsville, AL (northern Alabama)
84.1 (1.49%, 10/6) Durham, NC (north central, includes Greensboro, but not Raleigh or Winston-Salem)
84.1 (1.57%, 10/5) Colorado Springs, CO (southern Colorado)
84.7 (1.61%, 10/5) Charleston, SC (Low Country, South Carolina)
85.4 (1.37%, 10/6) Columbia, SC (Midlands)
85.7 (1.76%, 10/4) Douglasville, GA (western Atlanta suburbs and points west.
86.3 (1.31%, 10/5) Lakeland, FL (south central peninsula)
86.4 (1.39%, 10/5) Tampa, FL (Hillsborough County)
86.4 (1.87%, 10/3) Philadelphia-Penn, PA (north Philadelphia)
86.6 (1.57%, 10/4) Billings, MT (Montana)
87.0 (1.27%, 10/5) Seminole County, FL (Seminole, Volusia, Brevard counties)
87.2 (1.43%, 10/4) Tulsa, OK (northeast Oklahoma)
87.3 (1.77%, 10/3) Maricopa West, AZ (Glendale and westward)
87.5 (1.41%, 10/4) Fort Bend County, TX (southern Houston suburbs, and down to Victoria)
87.5 (1.76%, 10/2) Greenville, NC (eastern North Carolina)
87.9 (1.39%, 10/4) Winston-Salem, NC (northwestern North Carolina)
87.9 (1.56%, 10/3) Philadelphia-Franklin, PA (south and west Philadelphia)
88.0 (1.63%, 10/3) Atlanta, GA (Fulton County)
88.2 (1.04%, 10/6) Louisville, KY (western Kentucky)
88.2 (1.06%, 10/6) Memphis, TN (far western Tennessee)
88.3 (1.60%, 10/3) Brooklyn 1, NY (eastern Brooklyn)
88.3 (1.64%, 10/2) Baton Rouge, LA (Baton Rouge and areas to east and west)
88.5 (1.46%, 10/3) Jacksonville, FL (Duval, Nassau, Baker counties)
89.1 (1.53%, 10/2) Baltimore, MD (Baltimore City)
89.2 (0.89%, 10/6) Santa Rosa, CA (North Coast California)
89.4 (1.33%, 10/3) Fredericksburg, VA (northern Virginia, excluding Loudoun, Fairfax, Arlington counties, Alexandria)
89.6 (1.33%, 10/3) Tucson, AZ (southern Arizona)
89.6 (1.43%, 10/2) Fayetteville, NC (southeastern North Carolina)
89.7 (1.49%, 10/2) Akron, OH (northeastern Ohio)
89.8 (1.29%, 10/3) Ocala, FL (north central Peninsula)
89.8 (1.46%, 10/2) Albuquerque, NM (northern New Mexico, except Navajo Reservation)
90.0 (1.21%, 10/3) Gainesville, GA (nothern Georgia)
90.0 (1.54%, 10/2) West Palm Beach, FL (Palm Beach and Martin counties)

This is a secondary group that need to average 1.5% or more daily to reach 98% of the NRFU workload by September 30. Report day September 26, data day September 25. Between 90.0% and 92.0%.

Stockton, CA; Richmond, VA; Greenville, SC; Bakersfield, CA; Miami South, FL; and
Melville, NY were added, while nine ACO's moved to the more severe category. The average daily increase is 1.20%, a significant drop from previous days.

The 27 ACO at moderate risk represent 11.0% of all ACO.

90.1 (1.17%, 10/3) Chico, CA (Inland Northern California)
90.3 (1.36%, 10/2) Detroit, MI (Wayne County)
90.5 (1.66%, 10/1) Cleveland, OH (Cuyahoga, excluding outer suburbs)
90.6 (1.10%, 10/3) Montgomery County, TX (southeastern Texas)
90.6 (1.13%, 10/3) Milwaukee, WI (Milwaukee County)
90.7 (1.16%, 10/3) Flagstaff. AZ (northern Arizona)
90.7 (1.29%, 10/2) Allentown, PA (northeastern Pennsylvania)
90.8 (0.67%, 10/7) Eugene, OR (southern and eastern Oregon)
90.8 (1.99%, 9/30) Macon, GA (central Georgia, south-central from Atlanta perspective)
91.0 (0.94%, 10/4) Washington, DC (District of Columbia)
91.0 (1.57%, 10/1) Lexington, KY (eastern Kentucky)
91.1 (0.87%, 10/4) Brooklyn 4, NY (southwestern Brooklyn)
91.1 (1.06%, 10/3) Sioux Falls, SD (South Dakota)
91.1 (1.17%, 10/2) Gulfport, MS (southern Mississippi)
91.1 (1.34%, 10/2) Lansing, MI (southern Michigan)
91.1 (1.60%, 10/1) Maricopa Central, AZ (Glendale and points west)
91.2 (0.79%, 10/5) Southgate, CA (South Central, Huntington Park, Compton)
91.2 (0.81%, 10/5) Boston, MA (Suffolk County)
91.2 (0.87%, 10/4) Stockton, CA (San Joaquin, southern Sacramento, Central Sierras)
91.3 (1.10%, 10/3) Shelbyville, TN (central and western Tennessee, except Nashville and Memphis)
91.4 (1.57%, 10/1) Fort Myers, FL (Manatee, Sarasota, Charlotte, Lee)
91.5 (1.21%, 10/2) Richmond, VA (Southeastern Virginia excluding Hampton Roads)
91.7 (1.14%, 10/2) Newark, NJ (eastern Essex County)
91.7 (1.40%, 10/1) Greenville, SC (Upcountry South Carolina)
91.9 (0.81%, 10/4) Bakersfield, CA (Kern, Tulare, King, Fresno, excluding city of Fresno, counties)
91.9 (1.10%, 10/2) Miami South, FL (southern Miami-Dade and Monroe)
92.0 (1.46%, 10/1) Melville, NY (Suffolk County)

[cinyc]

98.4% total enumeration rate as of today. The self-response rate is now at 66.5% - tying the final 2010 percentage.

[Mike Thick]

https://twitter.com/tierney_megan/status/1311082286226513922?s=21

[jimrtex]

https://twitter.com/tierney_megan/status/1311082286226513922?s=21

A federal court has no authority to order an agency to ignore a statutory action.