The Official 2020 Census Thread

[Tender Branson]

What exactly could be the reason that the ACO of Shreveport, LA is trailing so badly behind at just 75% of NRFU completed ?

The only other ACO at that level is in AZ/NM, which can of course be explained with the Native-American Navajo reservation there (poverty, alcoholism etc).

Northern and central Lousiana is pretty odd though, because the surrounding areas all have 98-99% rates ...

[cinyc]

What exactly could be the reason that the ACO of Shreveport, LA is trailing so badly behind at just 75% of NRFU completed ?

The only other ACO at that level is in AZ/NM, which can of course be explained with the Native-American Navajo reservation there (poverty, alcoholism etc).

Northern and central Lousiana is pretty odd though, because the surrounding areas all have 98-99% rates ...

Louisiana was hit by a hurricane. Even inland, there were a lot of power outages. That probably set the efforts back a bit.

99.3% total enumeration rate as of today’s report; self-response rate is up to 66.7%. 15 states + Puerto Rico are at 99.9%.

[Tender Branson]

What exactly could be the reason that the ACO of Shreveport, LA is trailing so badly behind at just 75% of NRFU completed ?

The only other ACO at that level is in AZ/NM, which can of course be explained with the Native-American Navajo reservation there (poverty, alcoholism etc).

Northern and central Lousiana is pretty odd though, because the surrounding areas all have 98-99% rates ...

Louisiana was hit by a hurricane. Even inland, there were a lot of power outages. That probably set the efforts back a bit.

99.3% total enumeration rate as of today’s report; self-response rate is up to 66.7%. 15 states + Puerto Rico are at 99.9%.

But why are the other parts of LA doing well ?

It's just north LA that's sucking ... didn't the hurricane cause more damage in the South of Louisiana ?

[cinyc]

What exactly could be the reason that the ACO of Shreveport, LA is trailing so badly behind at just 75% of NRFU completed ?

The only other ACO at that level is in AZ/NM, which can of course be explained with the Native-American Navajo reservation there (poverty, alcoholism etc).

Northern and central Lousiana is pretty odd though, because the surrounding areas all have 98-99% rates ...

Louisiana was hit by a hurricane. Even inland, there were a lot of power outages. That probably set the efforts back a bit.

99.3% total enumeration rate as of today’s report; self-response rate is up to 66.7%. 15 states + Puerto Rico are at 99.9%.

But why are the other parts of LA doing well ?

It's just north LA that's sucking ... didn't the hurricane cause more damage in the South of Louisiana ?

I think there was more damage in the western part of the state. The ACO goes pretty far south in the west, almost to the coast. It includes Calisceau Parish (Lake Charles), which was paticularly hard-hit.

The only Western LA Parish in the Jefferson ACO is coastal Cameron, which is sparsely populated.

[jimrtex]

What exactly could be the reason that the ACO of Shreveport, LA is trailing so badly behind at just 75% of NRFU completed ?

The only other ACO at that level is in AZ/NM, which can of course be explained with the Native-American Navajo reservation there (poverty, alcoholism etc).

Northern and central Lousiana is pretty odd though, because the surrounding areas all have 98-99% rates ...

Louisiana was hit by a hurricane. Even inland, there were a lot of power outages. That probably set the efforts back a bit.

99.3% total enumeration rate as of today’s report; self-response rate is up to 66.7%. 15 states + Puerto Rico are at 99.9%.

But why are the other parts of LA doing well ?

It's just north LA that's sucking ... didn't the hurricane cause more damage in the South of Louisiana ?

There was storm surge into Lake Charles. It is really flat, Lake Charles is 13 feet above sea level. Only Cameron Parish is in the Jefferson Parish ACO and it has very few people.

New Orleans ACO was one of the 6 earliest soft NRFU. They may have lent enumerators to Jefferson Parish ACO and Baton Rouge ACO. Louisiana was among the worst hit by early COVID-19 and may have had trouble recruiting enumerators. When early NRFU started, it was when the second wave hit the South. Each of the 6 regional offices chose an ACO for the early soft NRFU, and then could choose other ACO with low COVID-19. No other ACO in the Atlanta region were chosen.

Southern ACO, particularly, in rural areas had low self-response which resulted in a greater NRFU workload. It appears that ACO with large numbers of rural counties are lagging. It appears that there is one enumerator for every 1500 persons. But in areas with average self-response that is one enumerator for every 500 non-respondents; but in low response areas that is one enumerator for every 1000 non-respondents. You might need twice as many enumerators (ACO appear to be based on having the same population, almost as if they were large congressional districts in a House with 245 representatives)

Shreveport got off to a very slow start, and was at 44% on September 11 when I started recording performance (I think I was including anything at 75% or lower as lagging). They've actually done a pretty good job, but have never been able to get out of the deep hole they were in.

The Shreveport ACO has several small cities, Shreveport, Monroe, Ruston, Natchitoches, Alexandria, Lake Charles, but at least initially enumerators might have only worked in their home parishes - since they are working from home. There are likely to be distribution problems. Some parishes have enough, others not. Or perhaps they only have enumerators willing to work on Tuesdays or for 10 hours/week. Enumerators had to attend one training session in person. I don't know whether that means they had to travel to Shreveport or could attend a session closer to home.

Baton Rouge ACO is pretty mediocre, but it has a larger city right in the middle of the ACO. They may be able to travel out to the surrounding parishes.

[jimrtex]

On October 2, 16 more ACO reach 98.0% NRFU, while one slips below that level to bring the total to 151 (61.6%).

It appears that NRFU rate can be brought to 99.0% or just a few 0.1% above, but the approach is not asymptotic. There can be a couple of daily increases around 0.5% going from around 98.0% to 99.0% and then it more or less freezes. It is possible that San Mateo, CA can not reach 98.0% - it is stuck on 97.8%. Quincy, MA slipped back to 97.9% after reaching 98.1%.

22 states have all ACO above 98% NRFU: NJ(8), WA(5), IN(4), CT(3), MN(3), OR(3), UT(2), AR(2), KS(2), NV(2), AK(1), HI(1), ID(1),  IA(1), ME(1), NE(1), NH(1), ND(1), RI(1), VT(1), WV(1), and WY(1)

Percentages are for ACO needed to move state out of current category.

8 states have a majority of ACO above 98%

67% MO 2/3 (Springfield 97.8% is lowest, needed to get all ACO to 98%)
92% TX 24/26 (Fort Bend 97.4%)
75% WI 3/4 (Milwaukee 96.8%)
70% IL 7/10 (Chicago Central 96.6%)
62% OH 5/8 (Akron and Cleveland 96.4%)
73% CA 22/30 (Stockton 94.9%)
57% NY 12/21 (Brooklyn 1 94.9%)
44% PA 5/9 (Philadelphia - Penn 93.6%)

7 states have half.

50% MA 3/6 (Quincy 97.9%, needed to reach majority)
50% CO 2/4 (Aurora 97.6%)
50% NM 1/2 (Albuquerque 97.5%)
50% MD 2/4 (Towson 97.4%)
50% VA 3/6 (Virginia Beach 97.3%)
50% TN 2/4 (Shelbyville 96.2%)
50% LA 2/4 (Baton Rouge 95.6%)

6 states have some, but less than half.

40% MI 2/5 (Traverse City 97.8% needed to reach 50% or more)
33% OK 1/3 (Cleveland County 97.7%)
27% FL 4/15 (Fort Myers and Miami South 97.1%)
17% AZ 1/6 (Flagstaff 96.9%)
14% NC 1/7 (Asheville 96.5%)
12% GA 1/8 (Gainesville 95.2%)

7 states + DC have none.

SC(3) (Greenville 97.6% is best, needed to be 1st ACO in state to 98%)
DE(1) (Wilmington 97.4%)
KY(2) (Lexington 96.9%)
DC(1) (Washington 96.4%)
MS(2) (Gulfport 96.2%)
SD(1) (Sioux Falls 95.6%)
MT (1) (Billings 93.0%)
AL(3) (Huntsville 91.8% is best)

[jimrtex]

These are the 133 ACO's that had not reached 98% NRFU by September 30, which was the original completion date under the REPLAN. This represents 54.3% of all ACO.

Report Day October 1, data day September 30.

Most are projected to reach 98% completion by October 5, the new target date.

10-01 ############################### (31)
10-02 #################################### (36)
10-03 ######################### (25)
10-04 ############## (14)
10-05 ########## (10)
10-06 ##### (5)
10-07 ##### (5)
10-08 ## (2)
10-09 ## (2)
10-10 # (1)
10-11 # (1)
10-12
10-13 # (1)

The 33 ACO new to the list are in red. ACO are ordered by projected completion date, including partial days (not shown), based on the average completion rate over the past seven days.

76.9 (1.69%, 10/13) Shreveport, LA (western and northern Louisiana)
85.3 (1.19%, 10/11) Mobile, AL (southern Alabama)
79.6 (1.84%, 10/10) Window Rock, AZ (Navajo reservation)
88.7 (1.09%, 10/9) Douglasville, GA (western Atlanta suburbs and points west.
87.1 (1.34%, 10/9) Jackson, MS (western and northern Mississippi)
84.6 (1.76%, 10/8) Columbus, GA (southern Georgia)
90.1 (1.09%, 10/8) Lakeland, FL (south central peninsula)
88.0 (1.44%, 10/7) Pensacola, FL (Redneck Riviera)
88.3 (1.41%, 10/7) Gwinnett County, GA (Gwinnett and points east)
89.8 (1.20%, 10/7) Columbia, SC (Midlands)
89.6 (1.33%, 10/7) Huntsville, AL (northern Alabama)
87.3 (1.70%, 10/7) Birmingham, AL (central Alabama)
89.9 (1.40%, 10/6) Charleston, SC (Low Country, South Carolina)
91.3 (1.23%, 10/6) Tampa, FL (Hillsborough County)
91.7 (1.20%, 10/6) Seminole County, FL (Seminole, Volusia, Brevard counties)
94.5 (0.69%, 10/6) Bronx 2, NY (southern, western Bronx)
90.3 (1.53%, 10/6) Durham, NC (north central, includes Greensboro, but not Raleigh or Winston-Salem)
92.4 (1.19%, 10/5) Winston-Salem, NC (northwestern North Carolina)
90.4 (1.64%, 10/5) Colorado Springs, CO (southern Colorado)
91.5 (1.41%, 10/5) Philadelphia-Penn, PA (north Philadelphia)
93.0 (1.10%, 10/5) Memphis, TN (far western Tennessee)
93.1 (1.09%, 10/5) Louisville, KY (western Kentucky)
93.2 (1.07%, 10/5) Fayetteville, NC (southeastern North Carolina)
93.8 (0.94%, 10/5) Ocala, FL (north central Peninsula)
91.9 (1.44%, 10/5) Billings, MT (Montana)
93.7 (1.03%, 10/5) Gainesville, GA (nothern Georgia)
94.3 (0.90%, 10/5) Sioux Falls, SD (South Dakota)
93.0 (1.33%, 10/4) Brooklyn 1, NY (eastern Brooklyn)
94.7 (0.89%, 10/4) Shelbyville, TN (central and western Tennessee, except Nashville and Memphis)
93.2 (1.30%, 10/4) Jacksonville, FL (Duval, Nassau, Baker counties)
93.4 (1.26%, 10/4) Baltimore, MD (Baltimore City)
94.2 (1.09%, 10/4) Detroit, MI (Wayne County)
93.9 (1.19%, 10/4) Tucson, AZ (southern Arizona)
93.3 (1.37%, 10/4) Baton Rouge, LA (Baton Rouge and areas to east and west)
94.8 (0.97%, 10/4) Brooklyn 4, NY (southwestern Brooklyn)
93.3 (1.43%, 10/4) Philadelphia-Franklin, PA (south and west Philadelphia)
93.3 (1.44%, 10/4) Atlanta, GA (Fulton County)
94.8 (0.99%, 10/4) Boston, MA (Suffolk County)
95.4 (0.81%, 10/4) Toledo, OH (northwestern Ohio)
94.8 (1.03%, 10/4) Gulfport, MS (southern Mississippi)
95.4 (0.84%, 10/4) Chicago Central, IL (Central-northish Chicago)
96.0 (0.67%, 10/3) Reading, PA (Delaware, Chester, Berks, Schuylkill)
94.9 (1.06%, 10/3) Dekalb, GA (Dekalb and Clayton counties)
95.0 (1.03%, 10/3) Washington, DC (District of Columbia)
94.4 (1.26%, 10/3) Akron, OH (northeastern Ohio)
95.4 (0.91%, 10/3) Asheville, NC (western North Carolina)
93.4 (1.63%, 10/3) Maricopa West, AZ (Glendale and westward)
94.9 (1.10%, 10/3) Allentown, PA (northeastern Pennsylvania)
93.5 (1.61%, 10/3) Tulsa, OK (northeast Oklahoma)
95.0 (1.10%, 10/3) Flagstaff, AZ (northern Arizona)
94.5 (1.30%, 10/3) West Palm Beach, FL (Palm Beach and Martin counties)
95.8 (0.83%, 10/3) Cook County South, IL (Southern Cook County, including far southern Chicago)
95.3 (1.03%, 10/3) Brooklyn 2, NY (southwest Brooklyn)
94.6 (1.30%, 10/3) Fredericksburg, VA (northern Virginia, excluding Loudoun, Fairfax, Arlington counties, Alexandria)
96.5 (0.59%, 10/3) Towson, MD (Baltimore suburbs and Eastern Shore)
96.4 (0.64%, 10/3) Queens 4, NY (Southern Queens)
95.2 (1.13%, 10/3) Lansing, MI (southern Michigan)
95.6 (0.97%, 10/3) Stockton, CA (San Joaquin, southern Sacramento, Central Sierras)
95.4 (1.14%, 10/3) Fort Myers, FL (Manatee, Sarasota, Charlotte, Lee)
95.3 (1.23%, 10/3) Milwaukee, WI (Milwaukee County)
95.0 (1.37%, 10/3) Cleveland, OH (Cuyahoga, excluding outer suburbs)
94.3 (1.70%, 10/3) Greenville, NC (eastern North Carolina)
95.8 (1.01%, 10/3) Bronx 1, NY (northern, eastern Bronx)
95.8 (1.06%, 10/3) Richmond, VA (Southeastern Virginia excluding Hampton Roads)
96.6 (0.70%, 10/3) Chicago South, IL (southside Chicago)
96.2 (0.90%, 10/3) Riverside, CA (western Riverside County)
95.8 (1.14%, 10/2) Greenville, SC (Upcountry South Carolina)
95.4 (1.39%, 10/2) Macon, GA (central Georgia, south-central from Atlanta perspective)
97.0 (0.54%, 10/2) Springfield, MO (southern Missouri)
94.7 (1.80%, 10/2) Fort Bend County, TX (southern Houston suburbs, and down to Victoria)
96.3 (0.94%, 10/2) Virginia Beach, VA (Hampton Roads)
96.9 (0.61%, 10/2) Ontario, CA (Far southwestern Sab Bernardino County)
96.1 (1.07%, 10/2) Southgate, CA (South Central, Huntington Park, Compton)
96.1 (1.07%, 10/2) Miami South, FL (southern Miami-Dade and Monroe)
96.2 (1.03%, 10/2) Lauderdale Lakes, FL (inland Broward, plus Collier and Hendry)
95.8 (1.27%, 10/2) Lexington, KY (eastern Kentucky)
96.8 (0.70%, 10/2) Aurora, CO (Adams, Arapahoe, Douglas, Elbert couties)
96.9 (0.66%, 10/2) Manhattan 1, NY (Northern Manhattan)
96.2 (1.09%, 10/2) Miami North, FL (northern Miami-Dade)
96.5 (0.91%, 10/2) Cleveland County, OK (southern Oklahoma)
96.6 (0.89%, 10/2) Lawrence, MA (Essex County)
96.9 (0.70%, 10/2) San Bernardino, CA (San Bernardino County, excluding southwestern corner)
96.3 (1.09%, 10/2) Eugene, OR (southern and eastern Oregon)
96.5 (0.97%, 10/2) Tyler, TX (northeast Texas)
96.7 (0.86%, 10/2) Traverse City, MI (Upper Peninsula and northern lower Peninsula)
95.8 (1.50%, 10/2) Albuquerque, NM (northern New Mexico, except Navajo Reservation)
96.3 (1.17%, 10/2) Melville, NY (Suffolk County)
96.4 (1.14%, 10/2) Charlotte, NC (Mecklenburg and Union counties)
96.5 (1.09%, 10/2) Wilmington, DE (Delaware)
96.9 (0.80%, 10/2) Manhattan 2, NY (Southern Manhattan)
97.2 (0.59%, 10/2) Fresno, CA (Fresno: Fresno city, Madera, Merced, and Stanislaus)
96.9 (0.81%, 10/2) Las Cruces, NM (southern New Mexico)
97.5 (0.40%, 10/2) Norristown, PA (Montgomery and Bucks counties)
96.4 (1.30%, 10/2) Des Moines, IA (Iowa)
96.3 (1.43%, 10/2) Santa Rosa, CA (North Coast California)
96.7 (1.10%, 10/2) Houston South, TX (south of Brays Bayou, West Loop (I-610), Katy Freeway (I-10), Gulf Freeway (I-45))
96.4 (1.37%, 10/2) Maricopa Central, AZ (Glendale and points west)
96.8 (1.06%, 10/2) Bakersfield, CA (Kern, Tulare, King, Fresno, excluding city of Fresno, counties)
97.1 (0.80%, 10/2) Peekskill, NY (Westchester and Putnam counties)
96.8 (1.13%, 10/2) Palm Springs, CA (Riverside County, excluding western end and Imperial)
97.8 (0.20%, 10/2) San Mateo, CA (San Mateo and southern San Francisco counties)
97.4 (0.60%, 10/2) Denver, CO (Denver and Jefferson counties)
96.9 (1.16%, 10/1) Springfield, IL (southern Illinois)
97.0 (1.14%, 10/1) Orange County, FL (Orange County)
97.2 (0.93%, 10/1) Casper, WY (Wyoming)
97.3 (0.81%, 10/1) North Las Vegas, NV (Nevada, except southern tip)
97.5 (0.59%, 10/1) Duluth, MN (northern Minnesota)
97.6 (0.51%, 10/1) Oswego, IL (DuPage, Will, Kendall counties)
97.0 (1.29%, 10/1) Montgomery County, TX (southeastern Texas)
97.4 (0.94%, 10/1) Spokane, WA (eastern Washington)
97.3 (1.10%, 10/1) Fort Lauderdale, FL (Coastal Broward)
97.5 (0.83%, 10/1) St. Louis, MO (St. Louis, St. Charles, and Jefferson counties, St. Louis City)
97.6 (0.76%, 10/1) Queens 3, NY (Northwest Queens, next to Brooklyn)
97.2 (1.57%, 10/1) Chico, CA (Inland Northern California)
97.8 (0.51%, 10/1) Overland Park, KS (northeastern Kansas)
97.6 (1.04%, 10/1) Hanover, MD (Prince George's, Anne Arundel, Western Shore)
97.7 (0.83%, 10/1) Inglewood, CA (Los Angeles coast, Santa Monica to Palos Verdes, and inland)
97.8 (0.56%, 10/1) Queens 2, NY (northeastern Queens)
97.8 (0.61%, 10/1) Tom's River, NJ (Burlington, Monmouth, and Ocean counties)
97.9 (0.43%, 10/1) Skokie, IL (Lakeside Northern Cook County)
97.9 (0.43%, 10/1) Quincy, MA (Norfolk County)
97.7 (1.33%, 10/1) Fairlawn, NJ (Bergen, except far western, lower Passaic counties)
97.9 (0.46%, 10/1) Queens 1, NY (north-northwestern Queens)
97.9 (0.50%, 10/1) Chicago Far Southwest, IL (southwestern Cook County)
97.8 (1.03%, 10/1) East Bridgewater, MA (Bristol, Plymouth, Barnstable, and islands)
97.9 (0.56%, 10/1) Peoria, IL (northern Illinois, excluding greater Chicago)
97.8 (1.16%, 10/1) Dallas County NW, TX (Northwest Dallas County)
97.8 (1.26%, 10/1) El Paso, TX (far west Texas)
97.9 (0.89%, 10/1) Jersey City, NJ (Hudson)
97.9 (1.17%, 10/1) Lubbock, TX (Panhandle amd Spith Plains)
97.9 (1.39%, 10/1) Egg Harbor, NJ (far southern New Jersey)
97.9 (1.43%, 10/1) Laredo, TX (South Texas, excluding Lower Rio Grande Valley)
97.9 (1.46%, 10/1) Newark, NJ (eastern Essex County)

[cinyc]

99.4% total response rate as of today’s report. The self-response rate ticked up to 66.7%.

[jimrtex]

These are the 109 ACO's that had not reached 98% NRFU by October 1. This represents 44.5% of all ACO. 24 ACO's reached 98% of October 1 (Thursday).

Most are projected to reach 98% completion by October 5, which was the new target date under the REPLAN. There was some slippage (average 0.38 days, excluding Stockton, CA which had a negative -1.8% completion reset). This was mainly due to areas approaching 100% being unable to sustain their completion rate - there simply weren't enough non-completed housing units left.

10-01 ######################## (24)
10-02 ############################ (28)
10-03 ############################ (28)
10-04 ###################### (22)
10-05 ########## (10)
10-06 ####### (7)
10-07 ### (3)
10-08 ## (2)
10-09 ###### (6)
10-10 # (2)
10-11
10-12
10-13 # (1)

The 24 ACO that reached 98% on October 1 are shown in blue.

78.6 (1.63%, 10/13) Shreveport, LA (western and northern Louisiana)
87.0 (1.23%, 10/10) Mobile, AL (southern Alabama)
81.5 (1.89%, 10/10) Window Rock, AZ (Navajo reservation)
90.2 (1.01%, 10/9) Columbia, SC (Midlands)
88.2 (1.31%, 10/9) Jackson, MS (western and northern Mississippi)
85.8 (1.64%, 10/9) Columbus, GA (southern Georgia)
93.8 (0.57%, 10/9) Stockton, CA (San Joaquin, southern Sacramento, Central Sierras)
90.3 (1.07%, 10/9) Douglasville, GA (western Atlanta suburbs and points west.
91.0 (0.99%, 10/9) Lakeland, FL (south central peninsula)
89.6 (1.36%, 10/8) Gwinnett County, GA (Gwinnett and points east)
89.4 (1.40%, 10/8) Pensacola, FL (Redneck Riviera)
88.9 (1.66%, 10/7) Birmingham, AL (central Alabama)
90.7 (1.36%, 10/7) Huntsville, AL (northern Alabama)
91.2 (1.31%, 10/7) Charleston, SC (Low Country, South Carolina)
95.2 (0.57%, 10/6) Bronx 2, NY (southern, western Bronx)
92.7 (1.21%, 10/6) Tampa, FL (Hillsborough County)
91.6 (1.47%, 10/6) Durham, NC (north central, includes Greensboro, but not Raleigh or Winston-Salem)
93.3 (1.11%, 10/6) Winston-Salem, NC (northwestern North Carolina)
93.0 (1.20%, 10/6) Seminole County, FL (Seminole, Volusia, Brevard counties)
92.6 (1.30%, 10/6) Philadelphia-Penn, PA (north Philadelphia)
91.7 (1.56%, 10/6) Colorado Springs, CO (southern Colorado)
94.4 (0.91%, 10/5) Gainesville, GA (northern Georgia)
93.0 (1.37%, 10/5) Billings, MT (Montana)
94.0 (1.10%, 10/5) Memphis, TN (far western Tennessee)
95.0 (0.83%, 10/5) Sioux Falls, SD (South Dakota)
94.4 (1.00%, 10/5) Fayetteville, NC (southeastern North Carolina)
94.1 (1.10%, 10/5) Louisville, KY (western Kentucky)
94.0 (1.17%, 10/5) Brooklyn 1, NY (eastern Brooklyn)
94.3 (1.11%, 10/5) Baltimore, MD (Baltimore City)
95.4 (0.81%, 10/5) Boston, MA (Suffolk County)
95.0 (0.99%, 10/5) Detroit, MI (Wayne County)
95.0 (1.01%, 10/4) Ocala, FL (north central Peninsula)
94.4 (1.23%, 10/4) Jacksonville, FL (Duval, Nassau, Baker counties)
95.5 (0.87%, 10/4) Shelbyville, TN (central and western Tennessee, except Nashville and Memphis)
95.6 (0.87%, 10/4) Brooklyn 4, NY (southwestern Brooklyn)
94.4 (1.31%, 10/4) Philadelphia-Franklin, PA (south and west Philadelphia)
94.9 (1.14%, 10/4) Tucson, AZ (southern Arizona)
94.4 (1.33%, 10/4) Atlanta, GA (Fulton County)
96.0 (0.74%, 10/4) Toledo, OH (northwestern Ohio)
94.5 (1.33%, 10/4) Baton Rouge, LA (Baton Rouge and areas to east and west)
95.5 (0.96%, 10/4) Gulfport, MS (southern Mississippi)
96.4 (0.61%, 10/4) Reading, PA (Delaware, Chester, Berks, Schuylkill)
95.7 (0.90%, 10/4) Washington, DC (District of Columbia)
96.0 (0.80%, 10/4) Asheville, NC (western North Carolina)
95.9 (0.84%, 10/4) Brooklyn 2, NY (southwest Brooklyn)
95.6 (1.00%, 10/4) Allentown, PA (northeastern Pennsylvania)
95.3 (1.17%, 10/4) West Palm Beach, FL (Palm Beach and Martin counties)
96.1 (0.84%, 10/4) Chicago Central, IL (Central-northish Chicago)
95.5 (1.17%, 10/4) Akron, OH (northeastern Ohio)
95.4 (1.23%, 10/4) Fredericksburg, VA (northern Virginia, excluding Loudoun, Fairfax, Arlington counties, Alexandria)
95.9 (1.00%, 10/4) Lansing, MI (southern Michigan)
96.9 (0.53%, 10/4) Queens 4, NY (Southern Queens)
94.8 (1.57%, 10/4) Maricopa West, AZ (Glendale and westward)
97.0 (0.50%, 10/3) Towson, MD (Baltimore suburbs and Eastern Shore)
95.7 (1.19%, 10/3) Cleveland, OH (Cuyahoga, excluding outer suburbs)
95.0 (1.63%, 10/3) Tulsa, OK (northeast Oklahoma)
96.0 (1.10%, 10/3) Flagstaff, AZ (northern Arizona)
96.5 (0.86%, 10/3) Bronx 1, NY (northern, eastern Bronx)
96.3 (1.00%, 10/3) Dekalb, GA (Dekalb and Clayton counties)
96.6 (0.83%, 10/3) Cook County South, IL (Southern Cook County, including far southern Chicago)
96.1 (1.16%, 10/3) Milwaukee, WI (Milwaukee County)
96.3 (1.10%, 10/3) Lexington, KY (eastern Kentucky)
96.5 (0.97%, 10/3) Richmond, VA (Southeastern Virginia excluding Hampton Roads)
96.4 (1.06%, 10/3) Fort Myers, FL (Manatee, Sarasota, Charlotte, Lee)
96.8 (0.84%, 10/3) Virginia Beach, VA (Hampton Roads)
96.8 (0.86%, 10/3) Lauderdale Lakes, FL (inland Broward, plus Collier and Hendry)
97.1 (0.66%, 10/3) Chicago South, IL (southside Chicago)
96.3 (1.26%, 10/3) Macon, GA (central Georgia, south-central from Atlanta perspective)
97.2 (0.61%, 10/3) Manhattan 2, NY (Southern Manhattan)
96.7 (1.04%, 10/3) Greenville, SC (Upcountry South Carolina)
97.8 (0.17%, 10/3) San Mateo, CA (San Mateo and southern San Francisco counties)
97.4 (0.51%, 10/3) Springfield, MO (southern Missouri)
96.8 (1.03%, 10/3) Miami South, FL (southern Miami-Dade and Monroe)
97.0 (0.90%, 10/3) Riverside, CA (western Riverside County)
97.0 (0.93%, 10/3) Wilmington, DE (Delaware)
96.2 (1.70%, 10/3) Greenville, NC (eastern North Carolina)
97.2 (0.76%, 10/3) Aurora, CO (Adams, Arapahoe, Douglas, Elbert couties)
97.4 (0.57%, 10/3) Manhattan 1, NY (Northern Manhattan)
97.2 (0.77%, 10/3) Lawrence, MA (Essex County)
97.0 (0.97%, 10/3) Miami North, FL (northern Miami-Dade)
96.2 (1.76%, 10/3) Fort Bend County, TX (southern Houston suburbs, and down to Victoria)
97.3 (0.73%, 10/2) Traverse City, MI (Upper Peninsula and northern lower Peninsula)
97.2 (0.84%, 10/2) Cleveland County, OK (southern Oklahoma)
96.7 (1.40%, 10/2) Albuquerque, NM (northern New Mexico, except Navajo Reservation)
97.1 (0.97%, 10/2) Charlotte, NC (Mecklenburg and Union counties)
97.2 (0.89%, 10/2) Tyler, TX (northeast Texas)
97.0 (1.13%, 10/2) Southgate, CA (South Central, Huntington Park, Compton)
97.5 (0.57%, 10/2) Fresno, CA (Fresno: Fresno city, Madera, Merced, and Stanislaus)
97.5 (0.61%, 10/2) Ontario, CA (Far southwestern San Bernardino County)
96.9 (1.47%, 10/2) Melville, NY (Suffolk County)
97.5 (0.79%, 10/2) Las Cruces, NM (southern New Mexico)
97.1 (1.43%, 10/2) Santa Rosa, CA (North Coast California)
97.2 (1.31%, 10/2) Maricopa Central, AZ (Glendale and points west)
97.6 (0.67%, 10/2) Peekskill, NY (Westchester and Putnam counties)
97.3 (1.19%, 10/2) Des Moines, IA (Iowa)
97.6 (0.73%, 10/2) San Bernardino, CA (San Bernardino County, excluding southwestern corner)
97.4 (1.11%, 10/2) Palm Springs, CA (Riverside County, excluding western end and Imperial)
97.7 (0.57%, 10/2) Denver, CO (Denver and Jefferson counties)
97.4 (1.16%, 10/2) Eugene, OR (southern and eastern Oregon)
97.5 (1.07%, 10/2) Bakersfield, CA (Kern, Tulare, King, Fresno, excluding city of Fresno, counties)
97.8 (0.47%, 10/2) Oswego, IL (DuPage, Will, Kendall counties)
97.6 (1.10%, 10/2) Springfield, IL (southern Illinois)
97.7 (0.83%, 10/2) Casper, WY (Wyoming)
97.9 (0.36%, 10/2) Norristown, PA (Montgomery and Bucks counties)
97.7 (1.10%, 10/2) Houston South, TX (Brays Bayou, West Loop (I-610), Katy Freeway (I-10), Gulf Freeway (I-45))
97.8 (0.76%, 10/2) North Las Vegas, NV (Nevada, except southern tip)
97.8 (0.97%, 10/2) Orange County, FL (Orange County)
97.9 (0.56%, 10/2) Duluth, MN (northern Minnesota)
97.9 (0.59%, 10/2) Queens 3, NY (Northwest Queens, next to Brooklyn)
98.0 (0.77%, 10/1) St. Louis, MO (St. Louis, St. Charles, and Jefferson counties, St. Louis City)
98.0 (0.87%, 10/1) Hanover, MD (Prince George's, Anne Arundel, Western Shore)
98.0 (0.94%, 10/1) Fort Lauderdale, FL (Coastal Broward)
98.0 (0.94%, 10/1) Spokane, WA (eastern Washington)
98.0 (1.51%, 10/1) Chico, CA (Inland Northern California)
98.1 (1.40%, 10/1) Montgomery County, TX (southeastern Texas)
98.2 (1.39%, 10/1) Newark, NJ (eastern Essex County)
98.2 (0.97%, 10/1) East Bridgewater, MA (Bristol, Plymouth, Barnstable, and islands)
98.1 (0.46%, 10/1) Queens 2, NY (northeastern Queens)
98.1 (0.46%, 10/1) Chicago Far Southwest, IL (southwestern Cook County)
98.1 (0.44%, 10/1) Skokie, IL (Lakeside Northern Cook County)
98.1 (0.44%, 10/1) Queens 1, NY (north-northwestern Queens)
98.2 (0.83%, 10/1) Inglewood, CA (Los Angeles coast, Santa Monica to Palos Verdes, and inland)
98.3 (1.17%, 10/1) Fairlawn, NJ (Bergen, except far western, lower Passaic counties)
98.1 (0.36%, 10/1) Quincy, MA (Norfolk County)
98.4 (1.16%, 10/1) El Paso, TX (far west Texas)
98.4 (1.14%, 10/1) Egg Harbor, NJ (far southern New Jersey)
98.3 (0.79%, 10/1) Jersey City, NJ (Hudson)
98.2 (0.51%, 10/1) Tom's River, NJ (Burlington, Monmouth, and Ocean counties)
98.2 (0.51%, 10/1) Peoria, IL (northern Illinois, excluding greater Chicago)
98.2 (0.50%, 10/1) Overland Park, KS (northeastern Kansas)
98.4 (1.00%, 10/1) Dallas County NW, TX (Northwest Dallas County)
98.5 (1.23%, 10/1) Laredo, TX (South Texas, excluding Lower Rio Grande Valley)
98.5 (1.06%, 10/1) Lubbock, TX (Panhandle and South Plains)

[Tender Branson]

No ACO is left below 80% workload completion:

Shreveport, LA is at 80.3 workload complete today (+1.7)

Window Rock, AZ-NM 83.0 (+1.5)

Mobile, AL 88.9 (+1.9)

[jimrtex]

On October 3, 17 more ACO reach 98.0% NRFU, bringing the total to 169 (69.0%). 76 are yet to reach 98%.

It appears that NRFU rate can be brought to 99.0% or just a few 0.1% above, but the approach is not asymptotic. There can be a couple of daily increases around 0.5% going from around 98.0% to 99.0% and then it more or less freezes. It is possible that San Mateo, CA can not reach 98.0% - it is stuck on 97.8%. It is beginning to look like Manhattan 2 (southern Manhattan) can not get to 98.0%. Perhaps so many people have fled the city that they can't be found.

26 states have all ACO above 98% NRFU: TX(26), NJ(8), WA(5), IN(4), WI(4), CT(3), MN(3), MO(3), OR(3), UT(2), AR(2), KS(2), NV(2), NM(2), AK(1), HI(1), ID(1),  IA(1), ME(1), NE(1), NH(1), ND(1), RI(1), VT(1), WV(1), and WY(1)

Percentages are for ACO needed to move state out of current category.

8 states have a majority of ACO above 98%

67% OK 2/3 (Tulsa 97.0% needed for all ACO to reach 98%)
70% IL 7/10 (Chicago Central 96.9%)
62% OH 5/8 (Cleveland 96.8%)
60% MI 3/5 (Detroit 96.5%)
87% CA 26/30 (Stockton 96.3%)
83% MA 5/6 (Boston 96.3%)
57% NY 12/21 (Brooklyn 1 95.7%)
44% PA 5/9 (Philadelphia - Penn 94.4%)

5 states have half.

50% CO 2/4 (Aurora 97.9%, to reach majority)
50% MD 2/4 (Towson 97.7%)
50% VA 3/6 (Virginia Beach 97.8%)
50% TN 2/4 (Shelbyville 96.9%)
50% LA 2/4 (Baton Rouge 96.5%)

5 states have some, but less than half.

33% FL 5/15 (Miami South 97.6% to reach half or more)
33% AZ 2/6 (Flagstaff 97.7%)
43% NC 3/7 (Asheville 97.0%)
12% GA 1/8 (Gainesville 95.9%)
33% SC 1/3 (Charleston 93.3%)

6 states + DC have none.

DE(1) (Wilmington 97.7%, to be first in state to reach 98%)
KY(2) (Lexington 97.3%)
MS(2) (Gulfport 96.8%)
DC(1) (Washington 96.8%)
SD(1) (Sioux Falls 96.1%)
MT (1) (Billings 95.0%)
AL(3) (Huntsville 93.2%)

[jimrtex]

Edit: Missed Des Moines

These are the 93 ACO's that had not reached 98% NRFU by October 2 (Quincy, MA had reached on October 1, but receded to below 98.0% on October 2). The 93 ACO's represent 38.0% of all ACO. 17 ACO's reached 98% on October 2.

Most are projected to reach 98% completion by October 5, which was the new target date under the REPLAN.

10-01 ####################### (23)
10-02 ################# (17)
10-03 ############################ (28)
10-04 ######################## (24)
10-05 ################# (17)
10-06 ######### (9)
10-07 #### (4)
10-08 ##### (5)
10-09 ## (2)
10-10 ## (2)
10-11 # (1)
10-12
10-13
10-14 # (1)

The 17 ACO that reached 98% on October 2 are shown in blue. The one ACO that receded is in red.

80.3 (1.60%, 10/14) Shreveport, LA (western and northern Louisiana)
83.0 (1.87%, 10/11) Window Rock, AZ (Navajo reservation)
89.3 (1.20%, 10/10) Jackson, MS (western and northern Mississippi)
87.1 (1.54%, 10/10) Columbus, GA (southern Georgia)
88.9 (1.31%, 10/9) Mobile, AL (southern Alabama)
91.9 (0.94%, 10/9) Lakeland, FL (south central peninsula)
90.6 (1.26%, 10/8) Gwinnett County, GA (Gwinnett and points east)
91.8 (1.07%, 10/8) Columbia, SC (Midlands)
90.6 (1.33%, 10/8) Pensacola, FL (Redneck Riviera)
94.9 (0.56%, 10/8) Stockton, CA (San Joaquin, southern Sacramento, Central Sierras)
92.1 (1.10%, 10/8) Douglasville, GA (western Atlanta suburbs and points west.
91.8 (1.30%, 10/7) Huntsville, AL (northern Alabama)
92.3 (1.26%, 10/7) Charleston, SC (Low Country, South Carolina)
90.6 (1.64%, 10/7) Birmingham, AL (central Alabama)
95.6 (0.54%, 10/7) Bronx 2, NY (southern, western Bronx)
94.1 (1.07%, 10/6) Winston-Salem, NC (northwestern North Carolina)
93.6 (1.21%, 10/6) Philadelphia-Penn, PA (north Philadelphia)
93.8 (1.20%, 10/6) Tampa, FL (Hillsborough County)
92.9 (1.47%, 10/6) Durham, NC (north central, includes Greensboro, but not Raleigh or Winston-Salem)
93.0 (1.49%, 10/6) Colorado Springs, CO (southern Colorado)
94.1 (1.19%, 10/6) Seminole County, FL (Seminole, Volusia, Brevard counties)
95.2 (0.86%, 10/6) Gainesville, GA (northern Georgia)
95.6 (0.74%, 10/6) Sioux Falls, SD (South Dakota)
94.0 (1.26%, 10/6) Billings, MT (Montana)
94.8 (1.09%, 10/5) Memphis, TN (far western Tennessee)
95.3 (0.96%, 10/5) Fayetteville, NC (southeastern North Carolina)
95.1 (1.03%, 10/5) Baltimore, MD (Baltimore City)
94.9 (1.10%, 10/5) Brooklyn 1, NY (eastern Brooklyn)
95.0 (1.11%, 10/5) Louisville, KY (western Kentucky)
96.0 (0.79%, 10/5) Boston, MA (Suffolk County)
95.1 (1.14%, 10/5) Atlanta, GA (Fulton County)
95.8 (0.90%, 10/5) Detroit, MI (Wayne County)
96.3 (0.71%, 10/5) Brooklyn 2, NY (southwest Brooklyn)
95.3 (1.16%, 10/5) Jacksonville, FL (Duval, Nassau, Baker counties)
96.2 (0.83%, 10/5) Shelbyville, TN (central and western Tennessee, except Nashville and Memphis)
95.3 (1.24%, 10/5) Philadelphia-Franklin, PA (south and west Philadelphia)
96.5 (0.71%, 10/5) Toledo, OH (northwestern Ohio)
96.2 (0.87%, 10/5) Gulfport, MS (southern Mississippi)
95.8 (1.07%, 10/5) Tucson, AZ (southern Arizona)
95.9 (1.03%, 10/5) Ocala, FL (north central Peninsula)
96.5 (0.74%, 10/5) Asheville, NC (western North Carolina)
96.3 (0.86%, 10/4) Brooklyn 4, NY (southwestern Brooklyn)
96.6 (0.71%, 10/4) Chicago Central, IL (Central-northish Chicago)
95.6 (1.29%, 10/4) Baton Rouge, LA (Baton Rouge and areas to east and west)
96.4 (0.87%, 10/4) Washington, DC (District of Columbia)
96.9 (0.60%, 10/4) Reading, PA (Delaware, Chester, Berks, Schuylkill)
96.3 (0.93%, 10/4) Allentown, PA (northeastern Pennsylvania)
96.1 (1.06%, 10/4) West Palm Beach, FL (Palm Beach and Martin counties)
97.2 (0.47%, 10/4) Queens 4, NY (Southern Queens)
97.2 (0.51%, 10/4) Manhattan 2, NY (Southern Manhattan)
96.2 (1.16%, 10/4) Fredericksburg, VA (northern Virginia, excluding Loudoun, Fairfax, Arlington counties, Alexandria)
96.4 (1.04%, 10/4) Cleveland, OH (Cuyahoga, excluding outer suburbs)
95.9 (1.46%, 10/4) Maricopa West, AZ (Glendale and westward)
96.4 (1.11%, 10/4) Akron, OH (northeastern Ohio)
96.8 (0.84%, 10/4) Dekalb, GA (Dekalb and Clayton counties)
96.7 (0.93%, 10/4) Lansing, MI (southern Michigan)
97.3 (0.51%, 10/4) Chicago South, IL (southside Chicago)
96.0 (1.49%, 10/4) Tulsa, OK (northeast Oklahoma)
97.8 (0.16%, 10/4) San Mateo, CA (San Mateo and southern San Francisco counties)
97.4 (0.47%, 10/4) Towson, MD (Baltimore suburbs and Eastern Shore)
97.0 (0.79%, 10/4) Bronx 1, NY (northern, eastern Bronx)
97.2 (0.71%, 10/4) Cook County South, IL (Southern Cook County, including far southern Chicago)
96.8 (1.07%, 10/4) Milwaukee, WI (Milwaukee County)
96.9 (1.04%, 10/4) Flagstaff, AZ (northern Arizona)
96.9 (1.04%, 10/4) Lexington, KY (eastern Kentucky)
97.1 (0.90%, 10/3) Miami South, FL (southern Miami-Dade and Monroe)
97.1 (0.93%, 10/3) Richmond, VA (Southeastern Virginia excluding Hampton Roads)
97.3 (0.74%, 10/3) Lauderdale Lakes, FL (inland Broward, plus Collier and Hendry)
97.1 (0.96%, 10/3) Fort Myers, FL (Manatee, Sarasota, Charlotte, Lee)
97.3 (0.76%, 10/3) Virginia Beach, VA (Hampton Roads)
97.1 (1.13%, 10/3) Macon, GA (central Georgia, south-central from Atlanta perspective)
97.6 (0.51%, 10/3) Manhattan 1, NY (Northern Manhattan)
97.4 (0.80%, 10/3) Wilmington, DE (Delaware)
97.7 (0.46%, 10/3) Fresno, CA (Fresno: Fresno city, Madera, Merced, and Stanislaus)
97.4 (0.94%, 10/3) Melville, NY (Suffolk County)
97.6 (0.66%, 10/3) Aurora, CO (Adams, Arapahoe, Douglas, Elbert couties)
97.4 (1.01%, 10/3) Southgate, CA (South Central, Huntington Park, Compton)
97.6 (0.89%, 10/3) Miami North, FL (northern Miami-Dade)
97.8 (0.47%, 10/3) Springfield, MO (southern Missouri)
97.6 (0.99%, 10/3) Greenville, SC (Upcountry South Carolina)
97.5 (1.30%, 10/3) Albuquerque, NM (northern New Mexico, except Navajo Reservation)
97.7 (0.79%, 10/3) Cleveland County, OK (southern Oklahoma)
97.4 (1.66%, 10/3) Fort Bend County, TX (southern Houston suburbs, and down to Victoria)
97.9 (0.29%, 10/3) Quincy, MA (Norfolk County)
97.8 (0.66%, 10/3) Traverse City, MI (Upper Peninsula and northern lower Peninsula)
97.6 (1.33%, 10/3) Santa Rosa, CA (North Coast California)
97.8 (0.73%, 10/3) Lawrence, MA (Essex County)
97.8 (0.93%, 10/3) Charlotte, NC (Mecklenburg and Union counties)
97.8 (0.99%, 10/3) Palm Springs, CA (Riverside County, excluding western end and Imperial)
97.9 (0.54%, 10/3) Ontario, CA (Far southwestern San Bernardino County)
97.9 (0.64%, 10/3) San Bernardino, CA (San Bernardino County, excluding southwestern corner)
97.9 (0.83%, 10/3) Tyler, TX (northeast Texas)
97.8 (1.67%, 10/3) Greenville, NC (eastern North Carolina)
98.0 (0.31%, 10/2) Norristown, PA (Montgomery and Bucks counties)
98.0 (0.47%, 10/2) Denver, CO (Denver and Jefferson counties)
98.0 (0.60%, 10/2) Peekskill, NY (Westchester and Putnam counties)
98.0 (0.87%, 10/2) Riverside, CA (western Riverside County)
98.0 (0.91%, 10/2) Las Cruces, NM (southern New Mexico)
98.0 (1.04%, 10/2) Des Moines, IA (Iowa)
98.0 (1.19%, 10/2) Maricopa Central, AZ (Glendale and points west)
98.1 (1.14%, 10/2) Eugene, OR (southern and eastern Oregon)
98.1 (1.01%, 10/2) Bakersfield, CA (Kern, Tulare, King, Fresno, excluding city of Fresno, counties)
98.1 (0.67%, 10/2) Casper, WY (Wyoming)
98.1 (0.41%, 10/2) Oswego, IL (DuPage, Will, Kendall counties)
98.2 (0.66%, 10/2) North Las Vegas, NV (Nevada, except southern tip)
98.3 (0.99%, 10/2) Houston South, TX (south of Brays Bayou, West Loop (I-610), Katy Freeway (I-10), Gulf Freeway (I-45))
98.4 (1.00%, 10/2) Springfield, IL (southern Illinois)
98.2 (0.49%, 10/2) Duluth, MN (northern Minnesota)
98.4 (0.86%, 10/2) Orange County, FL (Orange County)
98.3 (0.54%, 10/2) Queens 3, NY (Northwest Queens, next to Brooklyn)

[jimrtex]

These are the 76 ACO's that had not reached 98% NRFU by October 3.The 76 ACO's represent 31.0% of all ACO. 17 ACO's reached 98% on October 2.

Most are projected to reach 98% completion by October 5, which was the new target date under the REPLAN.

10-01 ####################### (23)
10-02 ################# (17)
10-03 ################# (17)
10-04 ######################## (24)
10-05 ##################### (21)
10-06 ############### (15)
10-07 ###### (6)
10-08 ## (2)
10-09 #### (4)
10-10 ## (2)
10-11 # (1)
10-12
10-13 # (1)

The 17 ACO that reached 98% on October 2 are shown in blue.

82.0 (1.61%, 10/13) Shreveport, LA (western and northern Louisiana)
84.6 (1.81%, 10/11) Window Rock, AZ (Navajo reservation)
90.2 (1.13%, 10/10) Jackson, MS (western and northern Mississippi)
88.3 (1.44%, 10/10) Columbus, GA (southern Georgia)
92.7 (0.91%, 10/9) Lakeland, FL (south central peninsula)
90.6 (1.36%, 10/9) Mobile, AL (southern Alabama)
91.5 (1.20%, 10/9) Gwinnett County, GA (Gwinnett and points east)
92.8 (1.01%, 10/9) Douglasville, GA (western Atlanta suburbs and points west.
92.8 (1.06%, 10/8) Columbia, SC (Midlands)
91.9 (1.30%, 10/8) Pensacola, FL (Redneck Riviera)
93.3 (1.23%, 10/7) Charleston, SC (Low Country, South Carolina)
92.1 (1.60%, 10/7) Birmingham, AL (central Alabama)
93.2 (1.31%, 10/7) Huntsville, AL (northern Alabama)
96.1 (0.54%, 10/7) Bronx 2, NY (southern, western Bronx)
94.8 (0.99%, 10/7) Winston-Salem, NC (northwestern North Carolina)
94.4 (1.14%, 10/7) Philadelphia-Penn, PA (north Philadelphia)
94.0 (1.41%, 10/6) Durham, NC (north central,  Greensboro, but not Raleigh or Winston-Salem)
94.7 (1.19%, 10/6) Tampa, FL (Hillsborough County)
94.1 (1.43%, 10/6) Colorado Springs, CO (southern Colorado)
96.1 (0.71%, 10/6) Sioux Falls, SD (South Dakota)
95.0 (1.14%, 10/6) Seminole County, FL (Seminole, Volusia, Brevard counties)
95.0 (1.20%, 10/6) Billings, MT (Montana)
95.9 (0.84%, 10/6) Gainesville, GA (northern Georgia)
95.5 (1.04%, 10/6) Memphis, TN (far western Tennessee)
96.5 (0.63%, 10/6) Brooklyn 2, NY (southwest Brooklyn)
96.3 (0.73%, 10/6) Stockton, CA (San Joaquin, southern Sacramento, Central Sierras)
96.3 (0.73%, 10/6) Boston, MA (Suffolk County)
95.8 (0.96%, 10/6) Baltimore, MD (Baltimore City)
95.7 (1.06%, 10/6) Brooklyn 1, NY (eastern Brooklyn)
95.7 (1.10%, 10/6) Atlanta, GA (Fulton County)
95.8 (1.09%, 10/6) Louisville, KY (western Kentucky)
95.8 (1.13%, 10/5) Philadelphia-Franklin, PA (south and west Philadelphia)
96.2 (0.94%, 10/5) Fayetteville, NC (southeastern North Carolina)
96.6 (0.79%, 10/5) Brooklyn 4, NY (southwestern Brooklyn)
96.5 (0.89%, 10/5) Detroit, MI (Wayne County)
96.9 (0.67%, 10/5) Toledo, OH (northwestern Ohio)
96.2 (1.10%, 10/5) Jacksonville, FL (Duval, Nassau, Baker counties)
97.3 (0.46%, 10/5) Manhattan 2, NY (Southern Manhattan)
96.5 (0.99%, 10/5) Tucson, AZ (southern Arizona)
96.8 (0.81%, 10/5) Gulfport, MS (southern Mississippi)
96.8 (0.83%, 10/5) Washington, DC (District of Columbia)
96.6 (0.97%, 10/5) Ocala, FL (north central Peninsula)
97.8 (0.14%, 10/5) San Mateo, CA (San Mateo and southern San Francisco counties)
96.9 (0.80%, 10/5) Shelbyville, TN (central and western Tennessee, except Nashville and Memphis)
96.7 (0.96%, 10/5) West Palm Beach, FL (Palm Beach and Martin counties)
96.8 (0.90%, 10/5) Cleveland, OH (Cuyahoga, excluding outer suburbs)
97.0 (0.76%, 10/5) Asheville, NC (western North Carolina)
96.5 (1.17%, 10/5) Baton Rouge, LA (Baton Rouge and areas to east and west)
97.0 (0.90%, 10/5) Allentown, PA (northeastern Pennsylvania)
97.5 (0.47%, 10/5) Chicago South, IL (southside Chicago)
96.9 (1.07%, 10/5) Fredericksburg, VA (northern Virginia, excluding Loudoun, Fairfax, Arlington, Alexandria)
97.4 (0.59%, 10/5) Reading, PA (Delaware, Chester, Berks, Schuylkill)
97.3 (0.74%, 10/4) Chicago Central, IL (Central-northish Chicago)
96.8 (1.36%, 10/4) Maricopa West, AZ (Glendale and westward)
97.6 (0.46%, 10/4) Queens 4, NY (Southern Queens)
97.1 (1.06%, 10/4) Akron, OH (northeastern Ohio)
97.4 (0.73%, 10/4) Bronx 1, NY (northern, eastern Bronx)
97.3 (0.89%, 10/4) Lansing, MI (southern Michigan)
97.3 (0.90%, 10/4) Lexington, KY (eastern Kentucky)
97.0 (1.40%, 10/4) Tulsa, OK (northeast Oklahoma)
97.7 (0.44%, 10/4) Towson, MD (Baltimore suburbs and Eastern Shore)
97.5 (0.86%, 10/4) Richmond, VA (Southeastern Virginia excluding Hampton Roads)
97.6 (0.81%, 10/4) Miami South, FL (southern Miami-Dade and Monroe)
97.7 (0.70%, 10/4) Cook County South, IL (Southern Cook County, including far southern Chicago)
97.7 (0.71%, 10/4) Wilmington, DE (Delaware)
97.7 (0.90%, 10/4) Fort Myers, FL (Manatee, Sarasota, Charlotte, Lee)
97.7 (0.99%, 10/4) Macon, GA (central Georgia, south-central from Atlanta perspective)
97.7 (1.00%, 10/4) Flagstaff, AZ (northern Arizona)
97.8 (0.69%, 10/4) Virginia Beach, VA (Hampton Roads)
97.8 (0.71%, 10/4) Lauderdale Lakes, FL (inland Broward, plus Collier and Hendry)
97.8 (0.81%, 10/4) Dekalb, GA (Dekalb and Clayton counties)
97.8 (0.94%, 10/4) Southgate, CA (South Central, Huntington Park, Compton)
97.9 (0.49%, 10/4) Manhattan 1, NY (Northern Manhattan)
97.9 (0.61%, 10/4) Aurora, CO (Adams, Arapahoe, Douglas, Elbert couties)
97.9 (0.84%, 10/4) Melville, NY (Suffolk County)
97.9 (1.24%, 10/4) Santa Rosa, CA (North Coast California)
98.0 (0.41%, 10/3) Fresno, CA (Fresno: Fresno city, Madera, Merced, and Stanislaus)
98.0 (0.49%, 10/3) Ontario, CA (Far southwestern San Bernardino County)
98.0 (0.84%, 10/3) Palm Springs, CA (Riverside County, excluding western end and Imperial)
98.1 (0.46%, 10/3) Springfield, MO (southern Missouri)
98.1 (0.57%, 10/3) San Bernardino, CA (San Bernardino County, excluding southwestern corner)
98.1 (0.59%, 10/3) Traverse City, MI (Upper Peninsula and northern lower Peninsula)
98.1 (1.07%, 10/3) Milwaukee, WI (Milwaukee County)
98.1 (1.19%, 10/3) Albuquerque, NM (northern New Mexico, except Navajo Reservation)
98.2 (0.29%, 10/3) Quincy, MA (Norfolk County)
98.2 (0.73%, 10/3) Cleveland County, OK (southern Oklahoma)
98.2 (0.84%, 10/3) Miami North, FL (northern Miami-Dade)
98.2 (0.86%, 10/3) Charlotte, NC (Mecklenburg and Union counties)
98.2 (1.53%, 10/3) Fort Bend County, TX (southern Houston suburbs, and down to Victoria)
98.3 (0.69%, 10/3) Lawrence, MA (Essex County)
98.4 (0.77%, 10/3) Tyler, TX (northeast Texas)
98.8 (1.01%, 10/3) Greenville, SC (Upcountry South Carolina)
98.8 (1.61%, 10/3) Greenville, NC (eastern North Carolina)

[Tender Branson]

The fact that the last ACOs will only finish their work in mid-October shows how essential the court order was to force the Trump admin and Census Bureau to continue counting and quality controls until October 31.

[cinyc]

The fact that the last ACOs will only finish their work in mid-October shows how essential the court order was to force the Trump admin and Census Bureau to continue counting and quality controls until October 31.

I see it the other way: the fact that almost all ACOs would wrap up their work by October 5 proves how political the court and plaintiffs are.  Their real motive is to stop Drumpf from completing the Census on time.  If we're all done by October 15, why not let Census move on to processing?

[jimrtex]

The fact that the last ACOs will only finish their work in mid-October shows how essential the court order was to force the Trump admin and Census Bureau to continue counting and quality controls until October 31.

I see it the other way: the fact that almost all ACOs would wrap up their work by October 5 proves how political the court and plaintiffs are.  Their real motive is to stop Drumpf from completing the Census on time.  If we're all done by October 15, why not let Census move on to processing?

They are currently enjoined from reporting apportionment numbers until next April.

The 9th Circuit hearing is being live-streamed at 9:00 AM PDT (Monday October 5). That is 16:00 UTC.

https://www.ca9.uscourts.gov/media/view_video.php?pk_vid=0000018042

[jimrtex]

Thirty-day averages (8/24/2010 to 9/23/2010)

Total 1.86 (0.062% per day)
Internet 1.37% (0.046% per day)
Paper+Phone 0.49% (0.016% per day)

At this rate, the USA would reach its 2010 response rate of 66.5% on September 27. It is estimated to take 4.84 days, and there are 8 days remaining.

Two states reached their 2010 response rate in June: MI(15) and WA(30)
Two states reached their 2010 response rate in July:  NV(20) and KY(27)
Eight states reached their 2010 response rate in August: ID(1), CO(17), OR(21), UT(22), VA(24), NH(25), AZ (29) and OH (31).
Twelve states have reached their 2010 response rate in September: MD(3), MN(3), NJ(7), CT(8), ME(8), IN(11), CA(14), NE(14), AL(15), IL(18), DE(21), FL(22)

Massachusetts is projected to reach its 2010 response rate on September 24 (gap is 0.1%)
Vermont is projected to reach its 2010 response rate on September 27 (gap is 0.3%)
South Dakota is projected to reach its 2020 response rate on September 28 (gap is 0.3%).

No states are projected to reach their 2010 response rate in the remainder of September, resulting in 27 states (53%) reaching their 2010 response rate during the official enumeration period.

The following six states would reach within 28 days.

Georgia is projected to reach its 2010 response rate on October 3.
Rhode Island is projected to reach its 2010 response rate on October 5.
New York is projected to reach its 2010 response rate on October 7.
Kansas is projected to reach its 2010 response rate on October 12.
Pennsylvania is projected to reach its 2010 response rate on October 15.
Tennessee is projected to reach its 2010 response rate on October 19.

7 states in remainder of October.
7 states + DC in November
2 states in December
1 state in 2021, West Virginia on February 25

Green-7: Reached (24)
in July (2): MI, WA;
in August (10): NV, KY, ID, CO, OR, UT, VA, NH (25), AZ, OH;
in September (12): MD(3), MN, NJ(7), CT(8), ME, IN, CA, NE, AL, IL, DE(21), FL
Green-6: By September 30 (3): MA(24), VT(27), SD
Red-3: By October 20, 28 days (6): GA, RI(5), NY, KS, PA, TN
Red-4: October (7): NM, AK, LA, TX, NC, OK, HI
Red-5: November (8): IA, MS, WY, AR, WI, DC, MO, SC
Red-6: December (2): MT, ND
Red-7: 2021 (1): WV

[cinyc]

99.6% total enumeration as of today’s report. The self-response rate remains at 66.7%.

23 states + PR are at 99.9% enumeration.

[Tender Branson]

99.6% total enumeration as of today’s report. The self-response rate remains at 66.7%.

23 states + PR are at 99.9% enumeration.

AL is no longer last, but LA.

[jimrtex]

The fact that the last ACOs will only finish their work in mid-October shows how essential the court order was to force the Trump admin and Census Bureau to continue counting and quality controls until October 31.

I see it the other way: the fact that almost all ACOs would wrap up their work by October 5 proves how political the court and plaintiffs are.  Their real motive is to stop Drumpf from completing the Census on time.  If we're all done by October 15, why not let Census move on to processing?

They are currently enjoined from reporting apportionment numbers until next April.

The 9th Circuit hearing is being live-streamed at 9:00 AM PDT (Monday October 5). That is 16:00 UTC.

https://www.ca9.uscourts.gov/media/view_video.php?pk_vid=0000018042

The 9th Circuit intends to issue their ruling on a stay of the District Court's order no later than Noon PDT (UTC - 7) on Wednesday.

[jimrtex]

On October 4, 14 more ACO reach 98.0% NRFU, bringing the total to 183 (74.7%). 62 are yet to reach 98%.

It appears that NRFU rate can be brought to 99.0% or just a few 0.1% above, but the approach is not asymptotic. There can be a couple of daily increases around 0.5% going from around 98.0% to 99.0% and then it more or less freezes. It is possible that San Mateo, CA can not reach 98.0% - it is stuck on 97.8%. It is beginning to look like Manhattan 2 (southern Manhattan) can not get to 98.0%. Perhaps so many people have fled the city that they can't be found.

26 states have all ACO above 98% NRFU: TX(26), NJ(8), WA(5), IN(4), WI(4), CT(3), MN(3), MO(3), OR(3), UT(2), AR(2), KS(2), NV(2), NM(2), AK(1), HI(1), ID(1),  IA(1), ME(1), NE(1), NH(1), ND(1), RI(1), VT(1), WV(1), and WY(1)

Percentages are for ACO needed to move state out of current category.

11 states have a majority of ACO above 98%

67% OK 2/3 (Tulsa 97.8% needed for all ACO to reach 98%)
93% CA 28/30 (Stockton 97.5%)
83% VA 5/6 (Fredericksburg 97.4%)
80% IL 8/10 (Chicago Central 97.3%)
62% OH 5/8 (Cleveland 97.2%)
60% MI 3/5 (Detroit 97.1%)
83% MA 5/6 (Boston 96.7%)
75% MD 3/4 (Baltimore 96.4%)
67% NY 14/21 (Brooklyn 1 96.4%)
75% CO 3/4 (Colorado South 95.2%)
44% PA 5/9 (Philadelphia - Penn 95.2%)

3 states have half.

50% AZ 3/6 (Maricopa West 97.6%, to reach majority)
50% TN 2/4 (Shelbyville 97.5%)
50% LA 2/4 (Baton Rouge 96.9%)

4 states have some, but less than half.

47% FL 7/15 (Miami South 97.8% to reach half or more)
43% NC 3/7 (Asheville 97.4%)
12% GA 3/8 (Gainesville 96.6%)
33% SC 1/3 (Charleston 94.3%)

6 states + DC have none.

DE(1) (Wilmington 97.9%, to be first in state to reach 98%)
KY(2) (Lexington 97.7%)
MS(2) (Gulfport 97.3%)
DC(1) (Washington 97.3%)
SD(1) (Sioux Falls 96.4%)
MT (1) (Billings 96.0%)
AL(3) (Huntsville 94.5%)

[jimrtex]

99.6% total enumeration as of today’s report. The self-response rate remains at 66.7%.

23 states + PR are at 99.9% enumeration.

AL is no longer last, but LA.

Alabama has all 3 ACO in full swing. Birmingham, AL did 2.1% on Sunday.

[jimrtex]

These are the 62 ACO's that had not reached 98% NRFU by October 4.The 62 ACO's represent 25.3% of all ACO. 14 ACO's reached 98% on October 4.

Most are projected to reach 98% completion by October 5, which was the new target date under the REPLAN.

10-01 ####################### (23)
10-02 ################# (17)
10-03 ################# (17)
10-04 ############## (14)
10-05 ######################## (24)
10-06 ################ (16)
10-07 ########## (10)
10-08 ## (2)
10-09 ##### (5)
10-10 # (1)
10-11 ## (2)
10-12
10-13 # (1)

The 14 ACO that reached 98% on October 2 are shown in blue. San Mateo, CA has been stuck on 97.8% for almost a week. This is a pattern that is quite typical for all ACO, except not below 98%.

For example:

Anchorage: 97.7 98.6 98.9 99.0 99.1 99.1 99.1 99.1

They completed 0.9% to surge past 98%, completed 0.3% the next day, then 0.1% for two day, and now stuck on 99.1%. This does not represent 0.9% of NRFU households not responding, but must include other NRFU cases.

97.8 (0.01%, 10/18) San Mateo, CA (San Mateo and southern San Francisco counties)

83.6 (1.64%, 10/13) Shreveport, LA (western and northern Louisiana)

86.4 (1.81%, 10/11) Window Rock, AZ (Navajo reservation)
91.1 (1.11%, 10/11) Jackson, MS (western and northern Mississippi)

89.5 (1.43%, 10/10) Columbus, GA (southern Georgia)

92.5 (1.20%, 10/9) Gwinnett County, GA (Gwinnett and points east)
93.7 (0.94%, 10/9) Lakeland, FL (south central peninsula)
93.8 (1.01%, 10/9) Douglasville, GA (western Atlanta suburbs and points west.
92.2 (1.41%, 10/9) Mobile, AL (southern Alabama)
93.7 (1.06%, 10/9) Columbia, SC (Midlands)

92.8 (1.30%, 10/8) Pensacola, FL (Redneck Riviera)
94.3 (1.21%, 10/8) Charleston, SC (Low Country, South Carolina)

95.5 (0.91%, 10/7) Winston-Salem, NC (northwestern North Carolina)
94.5 (1.33%, 10/7) Huntsville, AL (northern Alabama)
95.2 (1.07%, 10/7) Philadelphia-Penn, PA (north Philadelphia)
96.6 (0.56%, 10/7) Bronx 2, NY (southern, western Bronx)
96.4 (0.67%, 10/7) Sioux Falls, SD (South Dakota)
94.2 (1.69%, 10/7) Birmingham, AL (central Alabama)
96.8 (0.54%, 10/7) Brooklyn 2, NY (southwest Brooklyn)
95.5 (1.17%, 10/7) Tampa, FL (Hillsborough County)
95.1 (1.40%, 10/7) Durham, NC (north central,  Greensboro, but not Raleigh or Winston-Salem)
95.2 (1.39%, 10/7) Colorado Springs, CO (southern Colorado)

95.8 (1.13%, 10/6) Seminole County, FL (Seminole, Volusia, Brevard counties)
96.1 (0.99%, 10/6) Memphis, TN (far western Tennessee)
96.7 (0.70%, 10/6) Boston, MA (Suffolk County)
96.4 (0.91%, 10/6) Baltimore, MD (Baltimore City)
96.0 (1.17%, 10/6) Billings, MT (Montana)
96.6 (0.84%, 10/6) Gainesville, GA (northern Georgia)
96.4 (0.99%, 10/6) Brooklyn 1, NY (eastern Brooklyn)
96.3 (1.06%, 10/6) Philadelphia-Franklin, PA (south and west Philadelphia)
96.4 (1.06%, 10/6) Atlanta, GA (Fulton County)
96.5 (1.04%, 10/6) Louisville, KY (western Kentucky)
96.8 (0.89%, 10/6) Fayetteville, NC (southeastern North Carolina)
97.0 (0.74%, 10/6) Brooklyn 4, NY (southwestern Brooklyn)
96.8 (1.06%, 10/6) Jacksonville, FL (Duval, Nassau, Baker counties)
97.3 (0.63%, 10/6) Toledo, OH (northwestern Ohio)
96.9 (1.04%, 10/6) Baton Rouge, LA (Baton Rouge and areas to east and west)
97.1 (0.86%, 10/6) Detroit, MI (Wayne County)

97.3 (0.70%, 10/5) Chicago Central, IL (Central-northish Chicago)
97.1 (0.91%, 10/5) Ocala, FL (north central Peninsula)
97.2 (0.81%, 10/5) Cleveland, OH (Cuyahoga, excluding outer suburbs)
97.1 (0.93%, 10/5) Tucson, AZ (southern Arizona)
97.3 (0.79%, 10/5) Gulfport, MS (southern Mississippi)
97.6 (0.46%, 10/5) Manhattan 2, NY (Southern Manhattan)
97.3 (0.80%, 10/5) Washington, DC (District of Columbia)
97.4 (0.70%, 10/5) Asheville, NC (western North Carolina)
97.3 (0.90%, 10/5) West Palm Beach, FL (Palm Beach and Martin counties)
97.7 (0.43%, 10/5) Chicago South, IL (southside Chicago)
97.5 (0.77%, 10/5) Stockton, CA (San Joaquin, southern Sacramento, Central Sierras)
97.5 (0.79%, 10/5) Shelbyville, TN (central and western Tennessee, except Nashville and Memphis)
97.6 (0.64%, 10/5) Bronx 1, NY (northern, eastern Bronx)
97.4 (0.97%, 10/5) Fredericksburg, VA (northern Virginia, excluding Loudoun, Fairfax, Arlington, Alexandria)
97.5 (0.81%, 10/5) Allentown, PA (northeastern Pennsylvania)
97.5 (0.97%, 10/5) Akron, OH (northeastern Ohio)
97.7 (0.77%, 10/5) Lexington, KY (eastern Kentucky)
97.6 (1.26%, 10/5) Maricopa West, AZ (Glendale and westward)
97.8 (0.71%, 10/5) Miami South, FL (southern Miami-Dade and Monroe)
97.9 (0.41%, 10/5) Queens 4, NY (Southern Queens)
97.8 (0.84%, 10/5) Lansing, MI (southern Michigan)
97.9 (0.59%, 10/5) Reading, PA (Delaware, Chester, Berks, Schuylkill)
97.9 (0.61%, 10/5) Wilmington, DE (Delaware)
97.8 (1.31%, 10/5) Tulsa, OK (northeast Oklahoma)

98.0 (0.44%, 10/4) Towson, MD (Baltimore suburbs and Eastern Shore)
98.0 (0.44%, 10/4) Manhattan 1, NY (Northern Manhattan)
98.0 (0.69%, 10/4) Cook County South, IL (Southern Cook County, including far southern Chicago)
98.0 (0.79%, 10/4) Richmond, VA (Southeastern Virginia excluding Hampton Roads)
98.1 (0.84%, 10/4) Southgate, CA (South Central, Huntington Park, Compton)
98.1 (0.61%, 10/4) Lauderdale Lakes, FL (inland Broward, plus Collier and Hendry)
98.2 (1.09%, 10/4) Santa Rosa, CA (North Coast California)
98.2 (0.89%, 10/4) Fort Myers, FL (Manatee, Sarasota, Charlotte, Lee)
98.2 (0.74%, 10/4) Melville, NY (Suffolk County)
98.3 (0.94%, 10/4) Flagstaff, AZ (northern Arizona)
98.2 (0.61%, 10/4) Virginia Beach, VA (Hampton Roads)
98.3 (0.90%, 10/4) Macon, GA (central Georgia, south-central from Atlanta perspective)
98.2 (0.57%, 10/4) Aurora, CO (Adams, Arapahoe, Douglas, Elbert couties)
98.6 (0.71%, 10/4) Dekalb, GA (Dekalb and Clayton counties)

[Tender Branson]

Question:

If the 2020 Census data release is delayed from the mandatory Dec. 31 deadline to later (up to April 30, but I guess they could also release it earlier if they process it faster), will the Bureau release mid-2020 state estimates by December 31 instead ?

I guess they did not do so during December 2000 and December 2010 and only released the actual Census counts.

[cinyc]

99.7% total enumeration rate as of 10/5. Self-response rate remains at 66.7%.

By my quick count, 26 states + PR are at 99.9% eumeration now.