The Official 2020 Census Thread

[jimrtex]

99.9% total enumeration as of today’s report. Self-response remains at 66.8%.

37 states + DC and PR are at 99.9%.

I'm pretty sure that 99.9% translates to [99.85%, 100%). That is, they will not show 100% unless ALL housing units were completed - and perhaps not even then. 0.15% of 150 million housing units could be 225,000 nationwide, but less than 1000 per ACO.

State	10/9/2020	Change
Delaware	99.9	0.1
Arizona	99.8	0.0
Colorado	99.8	0.0
Florida	99.8	0.1
Kentucky	99.8	0.0
Montana	99.8	0.1
New Mexico	99.8	0.0
North Carolina	99.8	0.1
Alabama	99.7	0.2
Georgia	99.7	0.2
South Carolina	99.6	0.2
South Dakota	99.5	0.1
Mississippi	99.2	0.2
Louisiana	98.2	0.0

[Tender Branson]

It’s normal that they show 99.9% completed and not 100%.

There is no 100% completion.

There are vacant housing units, people who refuse and cannot properly be enumerated (only through a good guess from neighbours), there are hundreds of thousands of homeless and 10-20 million illegals (of which only a handful get counted).

[jimrtex]

99.9% total enumeration as of today’s report. Self-response remains at 66.8%.

37 states + DC and PR are at 99.9%.

By next weekend, every ACO except the Louisiana one (storm) should be 100% done.

On the other hand, it seems they are still counting the homeless - which is quite difficult and they do not show up in those 99.9% percentages ...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/census-homeless-count/2020/10/08/88034f6e-081c-11eb-9be6-cf25fb429f1a_story.html

Shreveport did 0.4% on Thursday, and 0.2% on Friday, and Saturday will be worse. Sunday will see some recovery, but will be slow. Enumerators who might be able to work, will take the day off. So basically 3 days were lost.

The Census Bureau is not counting the homeless now. They do that on one night. Originally this was scheduled for March 30, but was instead done on September 22-24. The procedure is to fan out locations where homeless are know to congregate. This census, 33,000 outdoor encampments, 10,000 shelters, and 5,000 soup kitchens had been identified. This probably misses a large share of the homeless, but not necessarily a large share of the population. The Department of Housing and Urban Development does a similar survey every January, and comes up with a number around 500,000. Even if they didn't count anyone, this is only about 0.15% of the total population.

The Post story was about volunteers going around and helping homeless persons self respond. You can self respond via Internet without an ID. Part of the questioning is to establish your place of residence. If you are using a GPS-enabled device, you can record the location (all US Census location data is based on lat-long). So even you don't live in a recognizable housing unit, you can self-respond. As part of NRFU, locations of non-ID respondents can be verified.

People did self-respond by Internet in Update/Leave areas before the forms had been distributed (remember this was delayed until May-June). In those cases, they could give a house location, which though not having a street address, might be known to the Census Bureau. For a location under a bridge, they would be much more likely to field check during NRFU.

There have been around 100 million self-responses. About 20 million of those were non-ID. These include persons from Update/Leave areas, persons who lost their invitation, persons who were prompted by the NRFU operation, persons who were away from home for extended periods, etc.

[jimrtex]

It’s normal that they show 99.9% completed and not 100%.

There is no 100% completion.

There are vacant housing units, people who refuse and cannot properly be enumerated (only through a good guess from neighbours), there are hundreds of thousands of homeless and 10-20 million illegals (of which only a handful get counted).

A vacant housing unit is counted as being completed. The Census Bureau uses "households" to simplify explanations in press releases.

If 65% of housing units self-respond, and 10% of housing units are vacant/not permanent residences. Then 10/35 of the NRFU workload is actually just verifying vacancies.

Housing units that are enumerated via proxies (neighbors or building managers or other knowledgeable persons) are counted as completions, though there may be continued attempts during closeout of field operations).

Homeless people by definition do not live in housing units (there may be some who live in buildings that are marginally habitable. Some may have broken into a boarded up apartment building - that may or may not have electricity or running water).

Persons in group quarters do not live in housing units. Nor do those in transitory locations such as campground, RV parks, hotels, etc.

Most illegal aliens are probably counted. There will be mixed households, where some are citizens or permanent residents, who won't include persons who do not have residence status (a permanent resident alien might omit an illegal alien spouse, or perhaps forget to include the oldest child who is not a citizen, but including younger siblings born in the US. So they would be counted, but not as reliably.

States above 99.95% counted still will not show as 100%.

[cinyc]

The numbers are the same today, but all but 6 states are now at 99.9% enumerated.

[Tender Branson]

It seems as if LA and MS have either paused enumeration because of the storm, or completely ended counting.

No movement in the rates for days there.

[cinyc]

It seems as if LA and MS have either paused enumeration because of the storm, or completely ended counting.

No movement in the rates for days there.

A pause is more likely than completely ending, due to the court order. You can't send anyone out during a hurricane. It's just not safe.

[jimrtex]

These are the 6 ACO's that had not reached 98% NRFU by October 9. The 6 ACO's represent 2.4% of all ACO. 16 ACO's reached 98% on October 9.

The Census Bureau changed the calculation of NRFU% somehow. ACO's that had appeared to have reached a maximum, suddenly had a jump. San Mateo, CA which had been at 97.8% for over a week jumped to 98.5%. Manhattan 2 which had struggled to get to 98.0%, then dropped back to 97.6%, jumped to 98.2%.

The NRFU% is the percentage of all NRFU tasks. While most NRFU tasks are simply completing a non-respondent housing unit, not all are. Some are tasks such as re-interviews for quality control, or verifying locations for non-ID self-responses. Anyhow, it appears that some of these tasks were accounted as being completed, or removed from the list of tasks to being done. The first would increase the numerator, the second would decrease the denominator. Either would increase the percentage. It could be something as simple as recognizing that they had self-responses from housing units that they thought they had to send an enumerator out to.

The jumps were small, 0.2% to 0.7%, relative to 100%, but large relative to the gap between 100% and where they are at.

This jump helped ACO's that were near 98% to surge past. Some ACO's had increases that were more than double their seven-day average rate.

On the other hand, Shreveport, LA only increased 0.2% as preparation for Delta continued.

"Hey, you up on the ladder boarding up windows, do you live here? Could you come down and do the Census? Yeah, I know you might die, but this is for last April 1st. No fooling."

Those not boarding windows, were making sure they had food, water, and gasoline, or evacuating to Houston, Tyler, Dallas, etc.

Most are projected to finish in the next couple of days.

10-01 ####################### (23)
10-02 ################# (17)
10-03 ################# (17)
10-04 ############## (14)
10-05 ######### (9)
10-06 ############## (14)
10-07 ########## (10)
10-08 ####### (7)
10-09 ################ (14)
10-10 ## (2)
10-11 # (1)
10-12 #
10-13 ## (2)
10-14
10-15
10-16
10-17
10-18 # (1)

For each ACO, the current NRFU completion percentage, the average daily completion rate for the previous seven days, and projected date to reach 98%.

The 16 ACO that reached 98% on October 9 are shown in blue.

88.1 (1.11%, 10/18) Shreveport, LA (western and northern Louisiana)

10-17

10-16

10-15

10-14

92.8 (1.40%, 10/13) Window Rock, AZ (Navajo reservation)
95.1 (0.83%, 10/13) Jackson, MS (western and northern Mississippi)

10-12

96.3 (1.31%, 10/11) Columbus, GA (southern Georgia)

97.5 (0.99%, 10/10) Pensacola, FL (Redneck Riviera)
97.7 (0.83%, 10/10) Lakeland, FL (south central peninsula)

98.0 (1.06%, 10/9) Gwinnett County, GA (Gwinnett and points east)
98.1 (1.31%, 10/9) Mobile, AL (southern Alabama)
98.1 (0.90%, 10/9) Columbia, SC (Midlands)
98.1 (0.43%, 10/9) Baltimore, MD (Baltimore City)
98.1 (0.64%, 10/9) Philadelphia-Penn, PA (north Philadelphia)
98.2 (0.74%, 10/9) Colorado Springs, CO (southern Colorado)
98.3 (0.86%, 10/9) Charleston, SC (Low Country, South Carolina)
98.3 (0.43%, 10/9) Philadelphia-Franklin, PA (south and west Philadelphia)
98.5 (0.91%, 10/9) Douglasville, GA (western Atlanta suburbs and points west.
98.4 (0.30%, 10/9) Brooklyn 2, NY (southwest Brooklyn)
98.4 (0.61%, 10/9) Winston-Salem, NC (northwestern North Carolina)
98.4 (0.34%, 10/9) Boston, MA (Suffolk County)
98.4 (0.51%, 10/9) Memphis, TN (far western Tennessee)
98.3 (0.39%, 10/9) Sioux Falls, SD (South Dakota)
98.5 (0.41%, 10/9) Bronx 2, NY (southern, western Bronx)
98.6 (0.53%, 10/9) Brooklyn 1, NY (eastern Brooklyn)

[jimrtex]

The Census Bureau appears to have changed their reporting of NRFU%. For example, San Mateo, CA which had been stuck at 97.8% for over a week, suddenly jumped to 98.5%. Whatever happened on Friday continued on Saturday. San Mateo now has jumped to 99.2%. That is an increase of 1.4% in two days after 0.0% change for a week.

On October 10, 2 more ACO reach 98.0% NRFU, bringing the total to 241 (98.4%). 4 are yet to reach 98%.

Two Florida ACO's, Pensacola and Lakeland surged past 98%, while Columbus, GA (+1.2%) and Window Rock, AZ (+1.2%) had strong days. On the other hand, Shreveport, LA (+0.3%) and Jackson, MS (+0.4%) had anemic days as Delta passed through. I'm a bit surprised they did that well as 500,000 were without power.

46 states + DC have all ACO above 98% NRFU: CA(30), TX(26), NY(21), FL(15), IL(10), PA(9), NJ(8), OH(8), MA(6), VA(6), MI(5), WA(5), CO(4), IN(4), MD(4), TN(4), WI(4), AL(3), CT(3), MN(3), MO(3), NC(3), OK(3), OR(3), SC(3), UT(2), AR(2), KS(2), KY(2), NV(2), NM(2), AK(1), DE(1), DC(1), HI(1), ID(1), IA(1), ME(1), MT(1), NE(1), NH(1), ND(1), RI(1), SD(1), VT(1), WV(1), and WY(1)

The 4 ACO are in 4 states. States are ranked according to their lowest ranked ACO. This will be the approximate order of states getting all ACO to 98%.

GA (1) (Columbus 97.5%)
MS (1) (Jackson 95.5%)
AZ (1) (Window Rock 94.0%)
LA (1) (Shreveport 88.4%)

By Census Geographic Region

Northeast 0/51
Midwest 0/43
West 1/59  1.7%
South 3/92  3.3%

[jimrtex]

The numbers are the same today, but all but 6 states are now at 99.9% enumerated.

Seven states reach 99.9% on October 10. The few laggards are states with a single ACO that is just finishing up (MT and SD), or few ACO (NM (2+) and SC(3)). States with an unfinished ACO, but several other ACO's to pull the average up (AZ and GA) are now at 99.9% on a statewide basis.

States with a severe laggard ACO (LA: Shreveport and MS: Jackson) are the statewide laggards. Shreveport has 11.6% unfinished NRFU. Averaged over the 4 ACO in LA, that is still 2.9% statewide unfinished NRFU even if the other ACO were complete. 2.9% unfinished NRFU and 1.8% overall incomplete are consistent.

State	10/10/2020	Change
Alabama	99.9	0.2
Arizona	99.9	0.1
Colorado	99.9	0.1
Florida	99.9	0.1
Georgia	99.9	0.1
Kentucky	99.9	0.1
North Carolina	99.9	0.1
Montana	99.8	0.1
New Mexico	99.8	0.0
South Carolina	99.7	0.1
South Dakota	99.7	0.2
Mississippi	99.2	0.0
Louisiana	98.2	0.0

[jimrtex]

The NRFU adjustment over the past two days has ACO's possible surging towards 100% or perhaps 99.9% completion.

98.0%+ 241 (98.4%)
98.5%+ 239 (97.6%)
99.0%+ 225 (91.8%)
99.5%+ 183 (74.7%)

No ACO have reached 99.9%, but 33 (13.5%) are at 99.8%.

Median is 99.60%.

[jimrtex]

These are the 4 ACO's that had not reached 98% NRFU by October 10. The 4 ACO's represent 1.6% of all ACO. 2 ACO's reached 98% on October 10.

Shreveport, LA only increased 0.3% as Delta blew through. The total increase for three days (Thursday, Friday, Saturday) was only 0.9%. Last Tuesday and Wednesday, the increase was 1.4% and 1.2%. The drop has pushed the 7-day average increase down to 0.91% and the projected completion to October 21.

Landfall was Friday evening, and the hurricane passed through Louisiana over the night and into Saturday. Sunday will be another weak day as power is restored. There will be too many downed power lines and debris to be wandering into unfamiliar neighborhoods to knock on doors.

Most are projected to finish in the next couple of days.

10-01 ####################### (23)
10-02 ################# (17)
10-03 ################# (17)
10-04 ############## (14)
10-05 ######### (9)
10-06 ############## (14)
10-07 ########## (10)
10-08 ####### (7)
10-09 ################ (16)
10-10 ## (2)
10-11 # (1)
10-12
10-13 # (1)
10-14 # (1)
10-15
10-16
10-17
10-18
10-19
10-20
10-21 # (1)

For each ACO, the current NRFU completion percentage, the average daily completion rate for the previous seven days, and projected date to reach 98%.

The 2 ACO that reached 98% on October 9 are shown in blue.

88.4 (0.91%, 10/21) Shreveport, LA (western and northern Louisiana)

10-20

10-19

10-18

10-17

10-16

10-15

95.5 (0.76%, 10/14) Jackson, MS (western and northern Mississippi)

94.0 (1.34%, 10/13) Window Rock, AZ (Navajo reservation)

10-12

97.5 (1.31%, 10/11) Columbus, GA (southern Georgia)

98.3 (0.91%, 10/10) Pensacola, FL (Redneck Riviera)
98.6 (0.84%, 10/10) Lakeland, FL (south central peninsula)

[cinyc]

Same overall numbers as yesterday Now, ony 4 states are not at 99.9% total enumeration:
New Mexico (99.8%)
South Dakota (99.7%)
Mississippi (99.3%)
Louisiana (98.3%)

[jimrtex]

The NRFU adjustment over the past two days has ACO's possible surging towards 100% or perhaps 99.9% completion.

98.0%+ 241 (98.4%)
98.5%+ 239 (97.6%)
99.0%+ 225 (91.8%)
99.5%+ 183 (74.7%)

No ACO have reached 99.9%, but 33 (13.5%) are at 99.8%.

Median is 99.60%.

150 ACO (61.2%) have reached 99.9%. That is essentially done. That is also an increase of 150 from yesterday.

98.0%+ 241 (98.4%)
98.5%+ 240 (98.0%)
99.0%+ 240 (98.0%)
99.5%+ 223 (91.0%)

17 states have all ACO at 99.9%.

NJ(8), IN(4), WI(4), CT(3), MN(3), AR(2), KS(2), NM(2), UT(2), AK(1), ID(1), IA(1), ME(1), NE(1), NH(1), RI(1), VT(1).

It appears that the Census Bureau has accepted the October 31 deadline, along with stay by the 9th Circuit of going past the December 31 deadline.

The district court is still getting emails from wannabe whistleblowers, but the court may be ignoring them, at least not ordering the Census Bureau to respond to them.

[jimrtex]

Same overall numbers as yesterday Now, ony 4 states are not at 99.9% total enumeration:
New Mexico (99.8%)
South Dakota (99.7%)
Mississippi (99.3%)
Louisiana (98.3%)

Self-response was not updated, likely because of the holiday.

[cinyc]

It appears that the Census Bureau has accepted the October 31 deadline, along with stay by the 9th Circuit of going past the December 31 deadline.

The district court is still getting emails from wannabe whistleblowers, but the court may be ignoring them, at least not ordering the Census Bureau to respond to them.

Last I heard, the Trump administration was appealing the decision to the Supreme Court. Have they declined to hear it?

https://www.npr.org/2020/10/07/920206851/appeals-court-denies-another-attempt-to-end-census-early-by-trump-officials

[jimrtex]

Same overall numbers as yesterday Now, ony 4 states are not at 99.9% total enumeration:
New Mexico (99.8%)
South Dakota (99.7%)
Mississippi (99.3%)
Louisiana (98.3%)

State	10/11/2020	Change
Montana	99.9	0.1
South Carolina	99.9	0.2
New Mexico	99.8	0.0
South Dakota	99.7	0.0
Mississippi	99.3	0.1
Louisiana	98.3	0.1

[jimrtex]

These are the 3 ACO's that had not reached 98% NRFU by October 11. The 3 ACO's represent 1.2% of all ACO. 1 ACO reached 98% on October 11.

Shreveport, LA only increased 0.4% as people started venturing out of shelter. The total increase for four days (Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday) was only 1.3%. Last Tuesday and Wednesday, the increase was 1.4% and 1.2%. The drop has pushed the 7-day average increase down to 0.74% and the projected completion to October 24.

Window Rock, AZ had a very poor day (0.2%). Columbus, GA surpassed 98% only to find that all other ACO's had moved past 99.0%, and most (150) reached 99.9%.

10-01 ####################### (23)
10-02 ################# (17)
10-03 ################# (17)
10-04 ############## (14)
10-05 ######### (9)
10-06 ############## (14)
10-07 ########## (10)
10-08 ####### (7)
10-09 ################ (16)
10-10 ## (2)
10-11 # (1)
10-12
10-13
10-14 # (1) Jackson, MS
10-15 # (1) Window Rock, AZ
10-16
10-17
10-18
10-19
10-20
10-21
10-22
10-23
10-24 # (1) Shreveport, LA

For each ACO, the current NRFU completion percentage, the average daily completion rate for the previous seven days, and projected date to reach 98%.

The one ACO that reached 98% on October 11 is shown in blue.

88.8 (0.74%, 10/24) Shreveport, LA (western and northern Louisiana)

10-23

10-22

10-21

10-20

10-19

10-18

10-17

10-16

94.2 (1.11%, 10/15) Window Rock, AZ (Navajo reservation)

96.1 (0.71%, 10/14) Jackson, MS (western and northern Mississippi)

10-13

10-12

98.4 (1.27%, 10/11) Columbus, GA (southern Georgia)

[Tender Branson]

Shreveport, LA might need all of October after the storm(s) there.

Good choice that the Count was extended.

One area must have the same opportunity to complete as all the other areas in the US ...

[jimrtex]

It appears that the Census Bureau has accepted the October 31 deadline, along with stay by the 9th Circuit of going past the December 31 deadline.

The district court is still getting emails from wannabe whistleblowers, but the court may be ignoring them, at least not ordering the Census Bureau to respond to them.

Last I heard, the Trump administration was appealing the decision to the Supreme Court. Have they declined to hear it?

https://www.npr.org/2020/10/07/920206851/appeals-court-denies-another-attempt-to-end-census-early-by-trump-officials

Thanks. This also links to the plaintiffs reply and the government's sur reply, both of which were due on October 10 (Saturday).

https://www.supremecourt.gov/search.aspx?filename=/docket/docketfiles/html/public/20a62.html

I had been checking the 9th Circuit and district courts, and they did not show the appeal. The district court had shown the appeal to the 9th Circuit.

The Census Bureau is arguing that it is not arbitrary and capricious to comply with statute.

[jimrtex]

Shreveport, LA might need all of October after the storm(s) there.

Good choice that the Count was extended.

One area must have the same opportunity to complete as all the other areas in the US ...

It will pick back up. It could be done in a week.

Even if NRFU is closed out everywhere else, self-responses are still under injunction. I don't know how much processing can be done in the next couple of the weeks. Some of the first processing is de-duplicating responses.

[cinyc]

Same as yesterday - 99.9% complete; 66.8% Self-response rate. Only 3 states aren’t at 99.9%:

South Dakota: 99.8%
Mississippi: 99.4%
Louisiana: 98.3%

[Ferguson97]

Welp.

https://twitter.com/bpolitics/status/1316119850356441090

[cinyc]

Welp.

https://twitter.com/bpolitics/status/1316119850356441090

If you’ve been following this thread, you can see that the Census Bureau is pretty much done counting, anwyay.

MS, LA hardest hit. But I think LA is also on Census’ side of the lawsuit, since they need an earlier count for redistricting.

[Person Man]

Welp.

https://twitter.com/bpolitics/status/1316119850356441090

If you’ve been following this thread, you can see that the Census Bureau is pretty much done counting, anwyay.

MS, LA hardest hit. But I think LA is also on Census’ side of the lawsuit, since they need an earlier count for redistricting.

That’s potentially fewer EVs for Republicans in 2024...but probably not.