2020 AZ Senate Megathread: Kelly's Race to Lose

[LoneStarDem]

McSally really doesn't want to be a Senator any more

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1131665578811371520

They don't care about disaster relief for states affected by natural disasters.

Let's see if any disaster hits the states of these IDIOTS, who voted against disaster relief.

[pppolitics]

McSally really doesn't want to be a Senator any more

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1131665578811371520

Is she intentionally trying to lose or what?

[Roll Roons]

McSally really doesn't want to be a Senator any more

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1131665578811371520

Is she intentionally trying to lose or what?

Maybe she's been set up to take the fall in 2020 so Ducey can run for the seat against Kelly in 2022.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

McSally really doesn't want to be a Senator any more

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1131665578811371520

Aren't Romney and McSally fake moderates? That is a very odd vote by both of them.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

McSally really doesn't want to be a Senator any more

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1131665578811371520

Is she intentionally trying to lose or what?

Maybe she's been set up to take the fall in 2020 so Ducey can run for the seat against Kelly in 2022.

That'd be an incredibly risky gamble for a number of reasons, like Ducey's popularity very easily could crater over the next four years and Donald Trump could conceivably win re-election while McSally loses, and the odds would definitely be on Kelly retaining his Senate seat in that situation.

The chances of this happening are precisely 0%.

[pppolitics]

Martha McSally raises nearly $3.4 million in second quarter; lags behind rival Mark Kelly

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/arizona/2019/07/15/republican-senator-martha-mcsally-raises-nearly-3-4-million-lags-behind-democrat-mark-kelly/1738419001/

[Ilhan Apologist]

McSally really doesn't want to be a Senator any more

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1131665578811371520

Is she intentionally trying to lose or what?

Maybe she's been set up to take the fall in 2020 so Ducey can run for the seat against Kelly in 2022.

That'd be an incredibly risky gamble for a number of reasons, like Ducey's popularity very easily could crater over the next four years and Donald Trump could conceivably win re-election while McSally loses, and the odds would definitely be on Kelly retaining his Senate seat in that situation.

The chances of this happening are precisely 0%.

Not if Trump loses Arizona but holds onto the rust belt.

[Nyvin]

McSally is a low grade recruit for the GOP.   I really do expect her to lose.   

[Mr. Illini]

Mark Kelly is a fundraising force. NRSC is going to have to dump $ here to keep up.

[UncleSam]

McSally is a low grade recruit for the GOP.   I really do expect her to lose.   

Lol she’s not a recruit. She is the (appointed) incumbent. While she may have been a weakish pick she is far from a weak candidate overall.

[Nyvin]

McSally is a low grade recruit for the GOP.   I really do expect her to lose.   

Lol she’s not a recruit. She is the (appointed) incumbent. While she may have been a weakish pick she is far from a weak candidate overall.

She avoids the public like the plague, is not like by the left or the right, she hardly campaigns at all, and doesn't have any strong following in the state.   

If she couldn't win in a 2018 midterm why would she two years later in a presidential election?   She's not a good candidate and it's insulting she was appointed after losing.

[Brittain33]

McSally is a low grade recruit for the GOP.   I really do expect her to lose.   

Lol she’s not a recruit. She is the (appointed) incumbent. While she may have been a weakish pick she is far from a weak candidate overall.

Her appointment was a recruitment.

[UncleSam]

McSally is a low grade recruit for the GOP.   I really do expect her to lose.   

Lol she’s not a recruit. She is the (appointed) incumbent. While she may have been a weakish pick she is far from a weak candidate overall.

She avoids the public like the plague, is not like by the left or the right, she hardly campaigns at all, and doesn't have any strong following in the state.   

If she couldn't win in a 2018 midterm why would she two years later in a presidential election?   She's not a good candidate and it's insulting she was appointed after losing.

Because the midterm was a D+9 wave year and 2020 is unlikely to be a similar Democratic wave?

[Nyvin]

McSally is a low grade recruit for the GOP.   I really do expect her to lose.  

Lol she’s not a recruit. She is the (appointed) incumbent. While she may have been a weakish pick she is far from a weak candidate overall.

She avoids the public like the plague, is not like by the left or the right, she hardly campaigns at all, and doesn't have any strong following in the state.  

If she couldn't win in a 2018 midterm why would she two years later in a presidential election?   She's not a good candidate and it's insulting she was appointed after losing.

Because the midterm was a D+9 wave year and 2020 is unlikely to be a similar Democratic wave?

Why wouldn't it be?   Two wave years can happen in a row, just like 2006 and 2008.   The only difference is the reason people voted the way they did in 2018 is directly attributed to Trump,  rather than the Iraq War or whatever else.   Republican base voters love Trump, and everyone else (including independents) hates him.

In fact I'd say the Republicans are in a pretty precarious position since the 2018 midterms happened with a pretty good economy.   If the economy goes south between now and Nov 2020...things could be even WORSE for them than 2018.

Trump has yet to have a "good" election, 2016 was neutral at best,  2018 was a bad election.   What makes you think suddenly Trump can reverse course and make things any better?  All he ever does it cater to his base to maintain control of the Republican Party and keep the party officials in line.

[Brittain33]

McSally is a low grade recruit for the GOP.   I really do expect her to lose.   

Lol she’s not a recruit. She is the (appointed) incumbent. While she may have been a weakish pick she is far from a weak candidate overall.

She avoids the public like the plague, is not like by the left or the right, she hardly campaigns at all, and doesn't have any strong following in the state.   

If she couldn't win in a 2018 midterm why would she two years later in a presidential election?   She's not a good candidate and it's insulting she was appointed after losing.

Because the midterm was a D+9 wave year and 2020 is unlikely to be a similar Democratic wave?

Why is it unlikely? It's not *guaranteed* to be a D+9 again, but take a look at the GCB now. They look like they did 2 years ago. Trump's not triangulating, he's going to be the same guy in 2020 he was in 2018.

[We Live in Black and White]

McSally is a low grade recruit for the GOP.   I really do expect her to lose.  

Lol she’s not a recruit. She is the (appointed) incumbent. While she may have been a weakish pick she is far from a weak candidate overall.

She avoids the public like the plague, is not like by the left or the right, she hardly campaigns at all, and doesn't have any strong following in the state.  

If she couldn't win in a 2018 midterm why would she two years later in a presidential election?   She's not a good candidate and it's insulting she was appointed after losing.

Because the midterm was a D+9 wave year and 2020 is unlikely to be a similar Democratic wave?

Why wouldn't it be?   Two wave years can happen in a row, just like 2006 and 2008.   The only difference is the reason people voted the way they did in 2018 is directly attributed to Trump,  rather than the Iraq War or whatever else.   Republican base voters love Trump, and everyone else (including independents) hates him.

In fact I'd say the Republicans are in a pretty precarious position since the 2018 midterms happened with a pretty good economy.   If the economy goes south between now and Nov 2020...things could be even WORSE for them than 2018.

Trump has yet to have a "good" election, 2016 was neutral at best,  2018 was a bad election.   What makes you think suddenly Trump can reverse course and make things any better?  All he ever does it cater to his base to maintain control of the Republican Party and keep the party officials in line.

Precisely. Trump is only competent at incompetence and his electoral success thus far has been the result purely of luck and interference. With the way the economy is projected to go thanks to his tax cuts, there's absolutely no coherent reason why his current course should turn around.

[We Live in Black and White]

Paul Gosar

Would lose in a landslide the instant his ties to actual European Nazis is breathed to the press.

[Sir Mohamed]

McSally needs to be primaried at a minimum to get her campaign chops up to par. She's going to lose a general, not so much because Arizona has changed, but because she's a truly awful candidate. Kelly will clobber her.

Paul Gosar, Matt Salmon, or as a wildcard Zuhdi Jasser should primary her.

Kelly Ward or the crock Arpaio would be more fun.

[brucejoel99]

Paul Gosar

Would lose in a landslide the instant his ties to actual European Nazis is breathed to the press.

Please, this is a Republican primary we're talking about here. They wouldn't bat an eye. (As for the general, though, of course; Senator-elect Mark Kelly would be just fine.)

[We Live in Black and White]

Paul Gosar

Would lose in a landslide the instant his ties to actual European Nazis is breathed to the press.

Please, this is a Republican primary we're talking about here. They wouldn't bat an eye. (As for the general, though, of course; Senator-elect Mark Kelly would be just fine.)

Yeah, the general is what I meant. A statewide primary win by Gosar would end the AZGOP permanently.

[Ilhan Apologist]

Paul Gosar

Would lose in a landslide the instant his ties to actual European Nazis is breathed to the press.

Does he actually have those ties?

[We Live in Black and White]

Paul Gosar

Would lose in a landslide the instant his ties to actual European Nazis is breathed to the press.

Does he actually have those ties?

Unfortunately, yes. He, Andy Harris, Steve King, and one other dude made a few certain friends on a trip to Europe (I think it was Hungary, specifically) not too long ago.

[Roll Roons]

Paul Gosar

Would lose in a landslide the instant his ties to actual European Nazis is breathed to the press.

Does he actually have those ties?

Unfortunately, yes. He, Andy Harris, Steve King, and one other dude made a few certain friends on a trip to Europe (I think it was Hungary, specifically) not too long ago.

It was those three and rather unsurprisingly, Gohmert and Rohrabacher.

[Cyrusman]

McSally needs to be primaried at a minimum to get her campaign chops up to par. She's going to lose a general, not so much because Arizona has changed, but because she's a truly awful candidate. Kelly will clobber her.

Paul Gosar, Matt Salmon, or as a wildcard Zuhdi Jasser should primary her.

What has she done that’s made her such an awful candidate?

[UncleSam]

McSally is a low grade recruit for the GOP.   I really do expect her to lose.   

Lol she’s not a recruit. She is the (appointed) incumbent. While she may have been a weakish pick she is far from a weak candidate overall.

She avoids the public like the plague, is not like by the left or the right, she hardly campaigns at all, and doesn't have any strong following in the state.   

If she couldn't win in a 2018 midterm why would she two years later in a presidential election?   She's not a good candidate and it's insulting she was appointed after losing.

Because the midterm was a D+9 wave year and 2020 is unlikely to be a similar Democratic wave?

Why is it unlikely? It's not *guaranteed* to be a D+9 again, but take a look at the GCB now. They look like they did 2 years ago. Trump's not triangulating, he's going to be the same guy in 2020 he was in 2018.

It is unlikely because the Dems need to run a candidate this time. It’s unlikely for the same reasons the GOP winning big in 2012 were always unlikely (and yet a lot of obituaries for Obama were written on this website in 2010 and 2011 anyway). It is never likely a party will win big two elections in a row, and required an inspiring candidate combined with highly favorable real world circumstances. I doubt that the economy will crash and Harris or whoever ends up being as inspiring as Obama simultaneously.