2020 AZ Senate Megathread: Kelly's Race to Lose

[Oryxslayer]

Gallego lost the shadow primary then, couldn't get enough donor support. Kelly gets off easy, but will McSally avoid a primary in a state where the crazies now run Republican party? Also...

Gallego will win the primary 80-20.

This aged incredibly poorly incredibly fast.

[bluesolid]

Massive FF

[Webnicz]

Good for gallego for carefully evaluating this!

[S019]

I'm going to be bold and call this Lean D Tilt R. McSally will almost certainly underperform overperform Trump, and Trump stands a good chance of losing will probably win AZ.

[Politician]

I'm going to be bold and call this Lean D Tilt R. McSally will almost certainly underperform overperform Trump, and Trump stands a good chance of losing will probably win AZ.

The same poll showing Trump ahead bigly in AZ also showed McSally barely ahead of Kelly.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Ultimately, I think McSally will outrun Trump slightly, and Trump will do better in Arizona than he will in whatever ends up being the tipping point state.

However, McSally is still very much an underdog, considering how the national environment of 2020 is shaping up.

If Trump wins re-election, McSally is guaranteed to also win.

[Not Me, Us]

That really sucks, but McSally is trash. Go Mark!

[UncleSam]

Honestly I think this is solid Lean R right now. I’d be very surprised if Trump lost Arizona in 2020 and I’d be surprised if Mcsally got outrun by him. We will see though.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Senator Mark Kelly! I love the sound of that!

[Galeel]

This is good. I have no issues with Gallego, but it is better to have a unified party without a divisive primary going into the general election. Gallego can be VA Secretary in the next Dem administration, or he could run for governor in 2022.

[IceSpear]

Gallego will win the primary 80-20.

LOL, Peak Solid.

[Xing]

I like Gallego, but I don't have any real issues with Kelly. I'd call this race a pure Toss-Up right now. My hunch is that it very closely tracks the presidential race.

[Politician]

Honestly I think this is solid Lean R right now. I’d be very surprised if Trump lost Arizona in 2020 and I’d be surprised if Mcsally got outrun by him. We will see though.

I'm surprised you still talk about Arizona politics considering how bad your #hottakes about it were in the past...

When McSally wins by five in the most predictable case of Atlas jumping the gun on a red state turning purple ever, feel free to quote this post.

Yawn. McSally is going to win and it should've been predictable all along honestly. Sinema is too moderate to pump up the liberal base and there's just no way that 'moderate' suburbanite Republicans are going to vote for a pho-Republican instead of the real deal.

McSally 52-47 in the end. You heard it here first.

[HarrisonL]

An Ruben Gallego has announced he isn't running for senate, but rather another House Term, so Kelly and McSally shouldn't have to worry about a primary.

[pppolitics]

I am glad a nasty primary would be avoided.

[MT Treasurer]

Honestly I think this is solid Lean R right now. I’d be very surprised if Trump lost Arizona in 2020 and I’d be surprised if Mcsally got outrun by him. We will see though.

So Likely D then?

Seriously though, McSally will more likely than not underperform Trump by 2 or 3 points, and since Trump is probably already a slight underdog in AZ, such an underperformace would pretty much seal the deal. I’d call this Lean D, and like SaC said, AZ is clearly the best pick-up opportunity for Dems after CO.

[wesmoorenerd]

Gallego staying out is probably for the best. He'd make a strong contender for Governor the next time around.

[pppolitics]

So what's going to be McSally main argument against Kelly?

Kelly is gonna take ur guns?

[S019]

So what's going to be McSally main argument against Kelly?

Kelly is gonna take ur guns?

Mark Kelly will be a vote for Washington liberals like Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer, who will pass liberal legislation that will hurt Arizona, will be the main argument, and her ads will scream Chuck Schumer, Washington, Nancy Pelosi, and California, if she has an ad without any of those words, I'd be surprised

[QAnonKelly]

I guess he saw the money that Kelly is raising. He's young, there's bound to be something else that comes along.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I would have preferred Gallego to Kelly, but I'll give the guy credit for doing what's best for the party and its ability to pick up this seat.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/OHPredictive/status/1128001998597644291

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1128026089018683392

[pppolitics]

Martha McSally says time cost her the Senate race. No, she lost because of Trump

https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/laurieroberts/2019/05/15/martha-mcsallys-loss-last-year-wasnt-matter-time-matter-trump/3674058002/

[OBD]

I think this could be more favorable to McSally than a lot of people think, since she won't have to go through a competitive primary again. She's also an incumbent this time around.

[Gass3268]

McSally really doesn't want to be a Senator any more

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1131665578811371520