🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[Middle-aged Europe]

I was utterly wrong. Kenmerich was just elected MP. Game over.

With AfD support?

Yup. They used their own candidate as sort of a trojan horse.

[jaichind]

I was utterly wrong. Kenmerich was just elected MP. Game over.

With AfD support?

Excellent. Hopefully this sort of coalition is replicated at the federal level after the next election.

Yup. They used their own candidate as sort of a trojan horse.

[Middle-aged Europe]

- Thomas Kemmerich is the second FDP minister-president of a state in German history, following Reinhold Maier who had served as minister-president of Baden-Württemberg from 1952 to 1953 and its precursor state Württemberg-Baden from 1945 to 1952.

- The FDP is currently the smallest party in state parliament barely making it past the 5% threshold in last October's election.

- Prior to today's ballots, Kemmerich had offered the Thuringian SPD to retain their ministers in case he's elected indicating that he prefers some form of CDU-SPD-FDP minority coalition. If the SPD doesn't agree to this a snap election just may have become much more likely.

[Former President tack50]

Is this the first ever Minister-president from FDP then? Kinda reminds me of some similar screwed up situations locally here lol

[Middle-aged Europe]

Is this the first ever Minister-president from FDP then? Kinda reminds me of some similar screwed up situations locally here lol

See my post above.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Excellent. Hopefully this sort of coalition is replicated at the federal level after the next election.

What coalition?

[Middle-aged Europe]

"It is now imperative that Kemmerich makes it clear that there won't be a coalition with the AfD" - Mike Mohring, Thuringian CDU state chairman

[Former President tack50]

Honestly the situation here reminds me a lot of the situation in Melilla here, where Cs (who only have 1 MP) presented their own candidate and got elected by surprise as regional president with the support of the local muslim party and PSOE despite only narrowly getting in at all.

Anyways, in case it wasn't clear enough, RIP Thuringia and RIP Germany when (and it's a when, not an if) AfD+Linke get a negative majority. Repeat of the 1930s and what not.

IMO the best solution for Thuringia was a Linke-SPD-Green-FDP government. CDU can retain its position as the main conservative alternative instead of abdicating that position to the AfD like they did nationally and in several states.

[Middle-aged Europe]

- Thomas Kemmerich is the second FDP minister-president of a state in German history, following Reinhold Maier who had served as minister-president of Baden-Württemberg from 1952 to 1953 and its precursor state Württemberg-Baden from 1945 to 1952.

Slight correction: From 1945 to 1946, Theodor Tantzen Jr. briefly served as the British occupation authority-appointed minister-president of the short-lived state of Oldenburg until it was merged with Lower Saxony. So, technically Kemmerich is the third FDP MP, although he is the second democratically elected one and the also the second since the formation of the Federal Republic.

[Middle-aged Europe]

IMO the best solution for Thuringia was a Linke-SPD-Green-FDP government.

FDP forming a government with the Left is about as (un)likely as the FDP forming a government with the AfD.

Realistically, the current options are:
1) A government of "non-partisan experts".
2) A CDU-FDP minority cabinet.
3) A CDU-SPD-FDP minority cabinet.
4) A CDU-SPD-Greens-FDP minority cabinet.
5) A snap election.

I would suppose Kemmerich will explore options 2 through 4 first now?

[Middle-aged Europe]

In first reactions, SPD and Greens have ruled out joining Kemmerich's government due to him being elected with AfD votes.

My current prediction would be: We're gonna see another parliamentary election in Thuringia sometine this year. Likelihood: At least 70%?

[Former President tack50]

IMO the best solution for Thuringia was a Linke-SPD-Green-FDP government.

FDP forming a government with the Left is about as (un)likely as the FDP forming a government with the AfD.

Realistically, the current options are:
1) A government of "non-partisan experts".
2) A CDU-FDP minority cabinet.
3) A CDU-SPD-FDP minority cabinet.
4) A CDU-SPD-Greens-FDP minority cabinet.
5) A snap election.

I would suppose Kemmerich will explore options 2 through 4 first now?

I mean, my position would involve planning for that from the start as well as doing some sort of compromises along the way, like for example having the Greens or the SPD leading the government. (maybe a SPD-Green coalition with outside support from Linke and FDP?). Or maybe some sort of independent left leaning technocrat if Germany allows for those.

[Velasco]

Would a snap election in Thuringia solve anything?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Would a snap election in Thuringia solve anything?

Not necessarily. Maybe a second try at a Left-SPD-Greens (or CDU-SPD-Greens-FDP) minority government?

Considering that Bodo Ramelow is by far the most popular politician in Thuringia and given the likelihood of another election this year and the FDP's meager election result in October 2019 it's also a fair question whether the FDP just managed to self-terminate itself from the parliament?

It's complete chaos. The AfD just helped elect a minister-president who has the smallest possible parliamentary support anyone can have.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, member of the FDP federal executive board, on Kemmerich's election:

"To let yourself get elected by someone like Höcke is under democrats unacceptable and intolerable. Therefore this is a bad day for me as a liberal."


Ruprecht Polenz, former CDU secretary-general and former chairman of the Bundestag's foreign affairs committee:

"The CDU can't join a FDP government which is tolerated AfD. There should be a snap election as soon as possible."

[EastAnglianLefty]

What was Kemmerich's actual plan? There was never any way he could have topped the poll without the AfD voting for him, so was this intentional or just an attempt to be too clever by half?

[Middle-aged Europe]

What was Kemmerich's actual plan? There was never any way he could have topped the poll without the AfD voting for him, so was this intentional or just an attempt to be too clever by half?

That's a very good question that will probably fill the political talk shows for the next couple of weeks.

Maybe he never really had a plan except for "let's see what happens" in addition to severely underestimating the potential repercussions from getting elected MP by the AfD. I mean, as things are going right now I wouldn't completely suprised if someone in the FDP now files for expelling Kemmerich from the party.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Kai Wegner, CDU state chairman of Berlin:

"Under no circumstances can the AfD participate in this government. Thuringia needs a government of the center consisting of CDU, SPD, FDP and Greens."

[Middle-aged Europe]

Dorothee Bär, CSU state secretary in the Chancellery, wrote earlier today on Twitter: "Congratulations, dear Thomas Kemmerich!"

Bär has now deleted that tweet.

[jaichind]

Excellent. Hopefully this sort of coalition is replicated at the federal level after the next election.

What coalition?

De facto CDU/CDS-PFP-AfD post election coalition

[Middle-aged Europe]

Josef Schuster, President of the Central Council of Jews in Germany:

"I'm shocked that the FDP chairman in Thuringia has gotten himself elected minister-president with the votes of the AfD. With this action, the FDP is leaving the consensus of the democratic parties not to cooperate with the AfD or accept the support of the right-wing populists."

[Velasco]

Would a snap election in Thuringia solve anything?

Not necessarily. Maybe a second try at a Left-SPD-Greens (or CDU-SPD-Greens-FDP) minority government?

Considering that Bodo Ramelow is by far the most popular politician in Thuringia and given the likelihood of another election this year and the FDP's meager election result in October 2019 it's also a fair question whether the FDP just managed to self-terminate itself from the parliament?

It's complete chaos. The AfD just helped elect a minister-president who has the smallest possible parliamentary support anyone can have.

The problem is that both FDP and Grünen are dangerously close to the 5% hurdle. If Liberals fail and Greens hold, it'd be fantastic; if both fail, it'll be a disastrous outcome. On the other hand, I get the impression that both CDU and FDP are trapped in an impossible dilemma. The parties of the "democratic right" reject alliances with the "populist right", but also reject to tolerate a minority government led by Ramelow (minority governments are not usual in Germany, right?). I guess it's not only a matter of anticommunism; christian democrats and liberals must be afraid of further AfD gains at their expense... Any recent poll?

Just looking at the constituency map, with the rural areas colored black and light blue while the urban areas are purple. Weimar II is for Die Linke and the Weimarer Land districts are for the CDU (it could be worse).

[Middle-aged Europe]

Charlotte Knobloch, former President of the Central Council of Jews in Germany and currently Commissioner for Holocaust Memory of the Jewish World Congress:

"Thomas Kemmerich's election as minister-president of Thuringia with the votes of the AfD is the breaking of a taboo without precedent in the younger history of our country. Even with unclear majorities: A MP who's only getting into office with the votes of right-wing extremists can't be possible in a democracy."

[Middle-aged Europe]

Any recent poll?

Infratest dimap (January 28, 2020) - in comparison with the election result from October:

Left 32% (+1)
AfD 24% (+0.6)
CDU 19% (-2.7)
SPD 8% (-0.2)
Greens 6% (+0.8 )
FDP 6% (+1)

[MaxQue]

Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, member of the FDP federal executive board, on Kemmerich's election:

"To let yourself get elected by someone like Höcke is under democrats unacceptable and intolerable. Therefore this is a bad day for me as a liberal."

Yet, I'm sure the board isn't considering kicking Kemmerich out of the party.