🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[Tender Branson]

Now, even Austrian media and FPÖ politicians refer to Björn Höcke as „Bernd“:

Der Reporter bekam aber nicht nur FPÖ-Fans, sondern auch hochrangige Wiener Stadtpolitiker vors Mikro.

FPÖ-Vizebürgermeister Dominik Nepp gibt dem vermeintlichen AfD-Mann zum Beispiel Ratschläge, wie man einen ähnlichen Absturz in der Wählergunst vermeiden könne: "Keine Urlaube in Ibiza!"

Der Wiener Klubchef Toni Mahdalik wünscht AfD-Politiker Bernd Höcke alles Gute für den Wahlkampf in Thüringen: "Lass' di ned unterkriegen. Aber du bist eh ned der Typ dafür..."

https://kurier.at/kultur/fluessiges-kokain-im-schnitzel-heute-show-bei-fpoe-wahlparty/400638926

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Now, even Austrian media and FPÖ politicians refer to Björn Höcke as „Bernd“:

Der Reporter bekam aber nicht nur FPÖ-Fans, sondern auch hochrangige Wiener Stadtpolitiker vors Mikro.

FPÖ-Vizebürgermeister Dominik Nepp gibt dem vermeintlichen AfD-Mann zum Beispiel Ratschläge, wie man einen ähnlichen Absturz in der Wählergunst vermeiden könne: "Keine Urlaube in Ibiza!"

Der Wiener Klubchef Toni Mahdalik wünscht AfD-Politiker Bernd Höcke alles Gute für den Wahlkampf in Thüringen: "Lass' di ned unterkriegen. Aber du bist eh ned der Typ dafür..."

https://kurier.at/kultur/fluessiges-kokain-im-schnitzel-heute-show-bei-fpoe-wahlparty/400638926

I am pretty sure that the Kurier knows Höcke's first name; they only quoted Mahdalik.
Here's the video btw they're referring to:

[Tender Branson]

My prediction for the Thüringen state election tomorrow:

26.1% Left (-2.1)
25.4% CDU (-8.1)
24.8% AfD (+14.2)
  8.5% SPD (-3.9)
  7.2% Greens (+1.5)
  4.4% FDP (+1.9)
  3.6% Others (-3.5)

Turnout: 63.9% (+11.2)

[jaichind]

So we are headed toward Linke+AfD>50 right ?

[Pick Up the Phone]

So we are headed toward Linke+AfD>50 right ?

Probably. Out of six polls in September and October, only two had LINKE+AfD (slightly) below 50%.

But this might not even be necessary if the FDP doesn't pass the threshold. In none of the polls mentioned did the combination of CDU+SPD+GRÜNE get more than 43% on their own.

[Former President tack50]

Yay negative majority! So what happens next? CDU caves and rules with AfD? Or they reach a deal with Linke?

Or my favourite: a Nazbol AfD-Linke coalition

[Yeahsayyeah]

I doubt the CDU will govern with the AfD. Mike Möhring literally called Bernd Höcke a Nazi, last week.

The state constitution is quite open to minority governments. In the thir round the candidate with the most votes would be elected. On the other hand it knows self-dissolution of the Landtag.

[Pick Up the Phone]

CDU-AfD is (fortunately) not an option. I don't think Mohring would be willing to end his career by seriously proposing to form a state government with Bernd/Björn "Memorial of shame" Höcke. In such a case, Merkel and the federal CDU leadership were almost certain to intervene since any coalition negotiations with the AfD would irreversibly destroy the CDU's centrist self-image (and Merkel's political legacy as well).

CDU-LINKE is a bit more likely than CDU-AfD but still extremely unlikely.

At the moment, I see three possible scenarios: (1) There is a majority for LINKE, SPD, and GRÜNE, which means Red-Red-Green. Period. (2) There is no majority for LINKE, SPD, and GRÜNE, but a majority for CDU, SPD, FDP, and GRÜNE. Then we might actually get the first four-party coalition and a few more weeks of public debate about how the AfD has caused the collapse of the post-war party order. (3) There is no majority except LINKE-AfD/CDU-AfD/LINKE-CDU and we might actually see a minority government led by Ramelow or new elections after a while. Only the first scenario won't be ugly.

[EvilSovereign]

Tomorrow the CDU will most likely lose either it's conservative or its left-liberal wing, depending on who they support (Linke or AfD). Either way, it's gonna permanently damage the party. The only way for them to avoid disaster is for the leftist majority to hold, or (even better for the CDU) for them to somehow get a Zimbabwe majority under Mugabe Mohring.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout is up big time in Thüringen until noon:

2019: 31.2%
2014: 19.9%

And that's excluding postal ballots.

Ca. 14% of eligible voters have requested postal ballots this time, compared with 11% last time.

So, turnout is up 14% in total.

https://statistik.thueringen.de/presse/2019/pr_302_19.pdf

[jaichind]

When do polls close? 5pm or 6pm Berlin time ?

[Tender Branson]

When do polls close? 5pm or 6pm Berlin time ?

6pm.

5pm is Austria.

[Tender Branson]

Thüringen turnout until 4pm:

68% (+17% compared with 2014), incl. postal vote estimates/increase.

[Tender Branson]

Thüringen turnout until 4pm:

68% (+17% compared with 2014), incl. postal vote estimates/increase.

It should be noted that these turnout estimates are only based on a sample of precincts around the state, so it could still end up differently. But 70% seems possible.

That would be the highest turnout since 1994, when 75% voted.

[Astatine]

First exit polls ZDF/ARD:

Left Party 30/29.5
AfD 23/24
CDU 22/22.5
SPD 8/8.5
Greens 5.5/5.5
FDP 5.5/5

Only possible coalition options appear to be red-red-green-yellow (Left/SPD/Green/FDP) - if the FDP makes it into Parliament - or red-black (Left/CDU)... Wow, political stalemate.

[Tender Branson]

[Tender Branson]

Looks like many potential Green voters voted Left.

Or better said: for Bodo Ramelow, not for the party.

It’s not even guaranteed that they clear the 5% hurdle because of it ...

[Keep Calm and ...]

Uff

http://wahl.tagesschau.de/wahlen/2019-10-27-LT-DE-TH/
http://wahltool.zdf.de/slideshow/2019-10-27-LT-DE-TH.html
http://www.wahlrecht.de/news/2019/landtagswahl-thueringen-2019.html

[Tender Branson]

The turnout estimates by ARD/ZDF (65%) seem too low.

I expect more like 66-70% when everything is counted.

[Astatine]

If the exit poll is absolutely precise, then the Greens would lose in the popular vote in comparison to the previous election for the first time since October 2017. The Greens would decline for the second time in a row in Thuringia (6.2 % in 2009, 5.7 % in 2014, 5.5 % in 2019), but with a big if.

AfD has become second most-voted party in every Eastern German state now (without Berlin).

Worst showing for SPD+CDU combined in history in any German regional election (about 30 %).

The Left becomes largest party for the first time in their history.

If the FDP makes it into parliament, then they would enter an Eastern German state parliament for the first time since 2009.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Strong result for Ramelow, seems that no CDU-led government is possible (not even CDU-AfD!).

[Tender Branson]

Results page which updates itself automatically every 10 seconds:

Link

[jaichind]

It seems CDU and Greens are under-performing pre-election polls while Linke seems to be over-performing pre-election polls

[Tender Branson]

10% of precincts counted.

AfD strongest party so far with 28%.

But mostly rural areas.

[jaichind]

Latest ARD